43 Comments - Marty Funkhouser - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:23 am: Ah, I was just reminded of when the Chicago Headline Club gave Berg Lisagor awards for “journalism.” - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:23 am: Mike Frerichs stood tall to help sinking the Fair Tax by sheer arrogance that comes with sharing a stage where folks will get one to say utterly ridiculous things… “because I’m the smartest in the room” Demmer, a true and loyal Raunerite, one who aided and abetted Rauner in the withholding of a budget for an entire General Assembly… Demmer has no way to remind voters… “Mike Frerichs stands tall to the discussion of taxing retirement income” Frerichs is truly dangerous to seniors, retireees. The sinking of the Fair Tax falls squarely in the very tall shoulders of Frerichs and his words of lunacy. Frerichs is lucky he won’t face the full throat reminder, giving voters the opportunity to learn how dangerous Frerichs is to those living on retirement income, but I won’t lose sleep if Demmer joins Bourne as retired from state governing for the short term. - Candy Dogood - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:25 am: Or, here me out, the Fair Tax folks didn’t spend the Governor’s 50 million in a meaningful and effective way. There’s two sides to this issue and the GOP might have had some “effective” messaging but in a lot of areas of the state their message was the only message. We can’t blame Mike Frerich’s for everything no matter how little responsibility the Governor’s political team want to take for the big L on that one. - Michelle Flaherty - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:27 am: The IPI network using retirement security as a foil to the Fair Tax is about as disingenuous as it gets. It also, unfortunately, proved to be successful in getting people to vote against their self interests. - StateEmployeeThatIsNotInAFSCME - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:27 am: ==Frerichs is lucky he won’t face the full throat reminder== I’ve always been surprised that because of Frerichs’ role in helping to sink the Fair Tax, that the Treasurer’s office didn’t get massive cuts to their budget (either by the GA or by Pritzker’s AV as punishment) the last two fiscal years. - Donnie Elgin - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:32 am: “Legislators could tax retirement incomes right now” With their supermajority - the Dem could raise the “Flat” income tax rate on all of us at any time- they also could create a sort of “fair tax scheme” via expanded tax credits. They remain unwilling to use political capital to increase taxes. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:32 am: === Fair Tax folks=== Arguably *the* worst run election of a constitutional amendment… in recent Illinois history. Weeks upon weeks… radio silence… no real simplifying of the messaging… allowing “taxing retirement income” to be the fulcrum to allow folks to think voting against their own interests is… good. Gotta give credit to the winners; They exploited the “running out of a clock” by making the window to respond and clarifying a message to all the mess the winners pushed so small… including the help of Mike Frerichs want to discuss taxing retirement income. - Nick - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:34 am: The biggest issue remains is the fair tax side didn’t have a single over riding message. Was it mainly to generate revenue, pay our dues, and avoid more painful tax increases later Or was it about cutting taxes for the lower and middle classes, and make the rich pay their fair share These aren’t necessarily contradictory either but I think people genuinely were confused where the extra money (if there’s extra money) would be going towards. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:35 am: === massive cuts=== Example? Where are things bloated to have such cuts as to “punish”? If Rauner taught us all anything, the bloated or unneeded spending is found where social services get hurt most. If you have such a possible example… - Annonin' - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:44 am: It seems “Fair Tax” failed because it had an awful name and a poorly run campaign. The Treasurer did not help but he was not the fatal flaw. Now we can watch Rauner/Griffin/Berg and others try to trash workers right. - Frank talks - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:44 am: The Pro Fair Tax crew was overmatched. From not dominating the airwaves from the start to the flailing at the end. The Anti-Fair Tax crew ran a good race. They ran a smart campaign. Their spokespeople in interviews had all the right sound bytes and never got off message. The massive delay by the Pro folks was a killer. So was JB’s thought that Griffin would stay out of the race. Missed opportunity all around. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:51 am: === They remain unwilling to use political capital to increase taxes.=== And you think there was that same will you raise taxes has the Fair Tax passed? I mean, lol… c’mon. Raising taxes is raising taxes. The raising taxes of the top 3% was thwarted by the premise that things may include taxing retirement income at all, or that taxing retirement income was possible… which you’ve stated there’s no stomach to raise taxes. - Candy Dogood - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:51 am: ===radio silence=== Literally in this case. ===The Anti-Fair Tax crew ran a good race=== Just because they won doesn’t mean we have to say nice things. The Fair Tax folks didn’t field a full team. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:54 am: === The Fair Tax folks didn’t field a full team.=== As I’m reminded in sports and questioning teams and their records, and opponents… “I can only play and beat who’s on my schedule” The dismal failure of the Fair Tax folks as an internal thing, or choices internally, the anti folks had the answers, beat the team fielded against them. - Norseman - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:56 am: Disingenuous is what they do. It’s a feature, not a bug. - IL4Ever - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 11:58 am: I wonder if the amendment would have passed if allowed a “millionaire’s tax” of “up to an additional 3%” on top of the state’s flax tax rate and if the revenue was directly tied to funding education. The Fair Tax campaign wanted to be able to make the claim that 97% of residents were getting a tax cut. But that didn’t work, and it seemed complicated to some voters. “Nothing’s changing for anyone except those earning over $1,000,000, we’re just taxing the rich to pay for schools” may have been an easier sell. - Candy Dogood - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:04 pm: I prefer to focus on what the team I’m rooting for did wrong so we can fix it. The people behind the effort to defeat the measure relied on dishonesty and intentionally misleading voters which was only an effective strategy because there wasn’t a good message countering it. It’s a personal choice, but I’m not singing praises to politicos that have to lie to people to get them to vote against their best interests. Campaigning is easy when you can just repeatedly lie and never deliver. We are just unfortunate souls that live in a world where lying to people is incredibly effective especially if you do it while stoking fear, bigotry, and insecurity. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:09 pm: This was the precise reason that three Dem/Dem-leaning seniors in my life gave about why they voted against the fair tax referendum. Even when I explained that was a red herring, they could not be persuaded. It also did not help that Pritzker’s own messaging crew ostensibly working in favor of the fair tax just did such a lousy job selling it. Instead of leaning into the notion that this was voters’ chance to soak the rich they used silly messaging that we need to be able to tax more because govt did a bad job spending tax money in the past. If I was more cynical I might think Pritzker tanked the messaging effort on purpose given how it would affect him as a rich guy. Just think it was incompetent strategists though. - Commissar Gritty - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:11 pm: I was working in the District Office when IL Policy launched one of their robo call attacks in our district. It was an automated voice that would lie to you for 2 straight minutes, whip people into a frenzy, then say “press two to be collected with your Rep.” I know other offices who got hit by this ended up losing staff directly as a result of the harassment. One of their claims was that anyone making over 37k per year would see a tax increase. Please note this came something like two months before the Governor even announced the rates. IPI makes me think of the Cantina on Tatooine. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:11 pm: === did wrong === They waited weeks, and weeks, and weeks to get rolling. They allowed messaging to be taken from them. Mike Frerichs’ hubris to be the smartest in the room, unsolicited, gave a fulcrum. === I’m not singing praises to politicos that have to lie to people to get them to vote against their best interests=== Gotta give credit. They seemingly knew the lacking. Exploited it. Lessons were learned. Watching how Pritzker’s Crew is going about their business, this time with a candidate in Bailey, gotta give credit… - Nick - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:17 pm: I think myself and a lot of other liberals assumed that the messaging/arguments were so self evident that all we had to do was say the word fair and suddenly all the disingenuous attacks don’t resonate. Who could be mad about a “fair tax” etc etc. That wasn’t true. People weren’t sure what the change was meant for. It was very easy to not trust Illinois government. The lack of coherent argument just made people more suspicious. - Thomas Paine - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:20 pm: The magic bullet was the pandemic. We had massive unemployment, people uprooted from their daily routines, and uncertainty not about their retirement, but whether they would be able to buy toilet paper two weeks from now. The first vaccine wasn’t even available yet. You can spend a lot of time going through charts and graphs, but at a time of great economic uncertainty, people want certainty, and that moves voters overwhelmingly against any major changes to anything, especially tax rates, even when in their best interest. I have plenty I could say about how the “fair tax” campaign was run from day one, but honestly I don’t think anyone could have gotten passed in the midst of the pandemic. Maybe if JB said he was going to use all the funds in the first year to get everyone vaccinated and make sure the schools were reopened and stayed open, but probably not even then. Pritzker was also a victim of his own success. The budget gridlock, cuts and back logs that were the best argument for a fair tax were long gone from the headlines. It’s common for consultants and campaigns to attribute their successes to their own genius, and their failures to circumstances beyond their control. The truth is that their successes often have little to do with them either. - Captain Obvious - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:26 pm: Could it be that voters are smart enough to figure out that progressive taxes are just as unfair as regressive ones? And given a choice, chose the fairest option where everyone pays the same percentage? Sure messaging is important but no matter how well crafted and implemented it is, it might not be enough to overcome the underlying realities that are baked into the issue. It may have failed because it simply isn’t “fair” and voters saw that. - walker - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:27 pm: The same opponents to the worker rights amendment are gearing up to (equally falsely) link it to rising property taxes. They couldn’t care less if it’s true or remotely likely, as long as it scares voters. - Mary Poppins - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:40 pm: Yeah, lying is easier than arguing the facts, sorry I mean “framing” - walker - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:43 pm: A retirement tax threat might have been the bullet, but general lack of trust Springfield was what powered the gun. Hopefully recent years of responsible fiscal management is building that trust - Responsa - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:44 pm: ==all we had to do was say the word fair and suddenly all the disingenuous attacks don’t resonate.== That is an insightful post, Nick. But the messaging miscue from day one was that “fair’ is not a one sided benign word- as any person who ever heard (or uttered) “Hey, no fair” around the dinner table or in the schoolyard knows. - Lurker - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:46 pm: JB had better get some good answers soon. When he runs for president, I think this is his biggest negative. “Why did you try to raise taxes on seniors?” “Are you the most prominent wannabe tax raiser running for president and how much do you plan to raise fed taxes?” etc - Langhorne - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:48 pm: DE thats unconstitutional If you can’t do it in a straightforward manner, it is still Unconstitutional doing it through gimmickry. Senator lapaille had a bill along these lines years ago. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 12:55 pm: To reset a bit, let’s go back to this… the post itself; === “What we found was that framing the progressive tax as an attack on retirement incomes — which it would allow for — really moved voters across age demographics and across both political spectrums,” Green says. “Politicians we don’t trust are going to get this new power. And what are they going to do with it? They might come after your retirement income. That unlocked a very powerful aspect of certainty which combated the fairness message,” Berg says.=== If there’s any ambiguity… The fair tax flop began, end, framed… by the taxing of retirement income that Mike Frerichs put into play They literally are saying it’s so. If there ambiguity to that, those are the words, now seen at least twice, so if you want to explain to them what they did or didn’t do… or use… do me a solid, wait one sec as I get popcorn, lol - City Zen - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:07 pm: Retirees have over 50 years experience of paying no tax on retirement income under a flat tax. Why would they change that? Not exactly the demographic that embraces change. Want to pass a graduated state income tax? Create a constitutional amendment barring the taxation of retirement income. Removes that argument completely and gives you the few percentage points needed to pass. - Lincoln Lad - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:14 pm: The Frerichs fumble didn’t help, but the total lack of effective messaging by the Gov’s team sealed the fate. Griffin’s $50M got him the victory, now he’s left the state leaving us without a tax change that would have benefited the majority of those voting against it. That’s how life rolls sometimes… - City Zen - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:16 pm: ==Or, here me out, the Fair Tax folks didn’t spend the Governor’s 50 million in a meaningful and effective way.== No way. I don’t think there has been as large a grassroots effort to pass anything in this state than the Fair Tax. Hundreds of labor, faith-based, and community organizations all worked together in a manner never seen before. Juggernaut AARP backed it. And in one of the most opportune election years to pass such legislation. And yet it failed. Focus on the messaging all you want, but it wasn’t the root cause. - Original Anon - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:20 pm: It was not just retirement income, Pritzker’s team also failed to overcome distrust of Springfield (affecting the promise that rates would not be raised on middle class). Boasting about a - very small - tax cut didn’t help either. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:20 pm: === And in one of the most opportune election years to pass such legislation. And yet it failed. Focus on the messaging all you want, but it wasn’t the root cause.=== The crew failed, they waited too long, they lost control of the narrative and messaging… and the way the winners set the table for their message… - Da big bad wolf - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:21 pm: === The same opponents to the worker rights amendment are gearing up to (equally falsely) link it to rising property taxes. They couldn’t care less if it’s true or remotely likely, as long as it scares voters.=== Exactly. There are several op Ed pieces in major Illinois papers around town, from IPI and some business leaders, saying lies like “this law will make all the nurses go on strike, it’s going to lead to new taxes and even cause defunding the police.” The sad thing is nobody is writing rebuttals to these letters. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:22 pm: - Original Anon - === “Politicians we don’t trust are going to get this new power. And what are they going to do with it? They might come after your retirement income. That unlocked a very powerful aspect of certainty which combated the fairness message,” === The taxing of the retirement income was the fulcrum - Thomas Paine - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:53 pm: I read what they said, I have read enough of campaign consultants puffing up their contributions/achievements to get their next gig to recognize what I am reading. There’s no factual basis for it. As they themselves note, hundreds of thousands of Democrats voted for Biden and the rest of the Dem ticket, but voted against the constitutional amendment. There was clearly not a “Democrats want to tax my retirement” message resonating through the ethos, or those folks would have been voting for Trump too. People wanted to feel safe, secure and back to normal. That’s it. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:55 pm: === There’s no factual basis for it.=== Narrator: They said what they did. They actually did what they said they did. It worked Not too hard. - City Zen - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 1:57 pm: ==they lost control of the narrative and messaging== Messaging was the symptom. The root cause was trust. You can say you won’t tax retirement income all you want, but unless it’s in writing (constitutional amendment), why believe it? If the opposition claims you’re going to raise taxes every year on everyone and your have no intent on doing so, get it in writing (legislation locking in the rates). Fix the core issue, then build messaging around the fix. Spend all you want on messaging, but if I don’t trust you, the messaging is moot. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 2:00 pm: - City Zen - Sincerely… Did you actually read the quotes in the post? === “Politicians we don’t trust are going to get this new power. And what are they going to do with it? They might come after your retirement income. That unlocked a very powerful aspect of certainty which combated the fairness message,” Berg says.=== Trust… but the retirement income… “unlocked a very powerful message” - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 2:14 pm: What I’ve enjoyed most about the comments here is the vibe like in “Back to School” Rodney Dangerfield hands in a paper on Kurt Vonnegut. Obviously it’s not written by Dangerfield. Salty Kellerman explains college is about “learning” and to enjoy it, and the person who did write the paper didn’t know the first thing about Vonnegut. Cut to Dangerfield, yelling in the phone, about stopping payment on the check… to Kurt Vonnegut Hilarious - Sonny - Friday, Aug 26, 22 @ 3:25 pm: These dweebs had one win and are still chirping. Genius messaging - taxes are bad. Wow. The past is for cowards and losers - Da Coach. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.