* This is the first Dan Proft ad that actually promotes Darren Bailey. His PAC appears to have spent about a million dollars on the spot…
The People Who Play By The Rules PAC has launched a new ad, “Darren Bailey: Practical Problem Solver.” An ad buy was placed in statewide media markets and the spot is available on YouTube and the PBR PAC Facebook page.
:30 https://youtu.be/noMHJzs5D60
TV Script:
VO: Darren Bailey isn’t popular with the political establishment of either party because he’s from the real world.
Bailey: “I’m proud to be a family farmer. We fix things that are broken, we solve problems, and we grow things.”
VO: Like you, Bailey knows what hasn’t worked.
Bailey: “Decade after decade of mismanagement in Springfield. Back-to-back billionaire governors – and where has that gotten us?”
VO: High taxes, high unemployment and high crime rates.
How much worse does it have to get before we give a practical problem solver a try?
VO: Darren Bailey isn’t popular with the political establishment of either party because he’s from the real world.
Bailey: “I’m proud to be a family farmer. We get up before the sun comes up and we work until after it goes down. We fix things that are broken, we solve problems, and we grow things. And I love to remind people what farmers do: they feed the world.”
VO: Like you, Bailey knows what hasn’t worked.
Bailey: “Decade after decade of mismanagement in Springfield. Back-to-back billionaire governors – and where has that gotten us?”
VO: Bailey got involved in state politics by opposing the income tax increase signed by the previous Republican governor, and then led the opposition to the income tax increase proposed by the current Democrat governor, because high taxes are driving families from Illinois. We’ve tried billionaires from both parties, and they left us with high taxes, high unemployment, and high crime rates. How much worse does it have to get before we give a practical problem solver a try?
I’d give it a D. The message isn’t bad but the messenger is severely flawed. I’ve seen no evidence that Bailey has solved any problems in the time that he’s held office. His tenure has been defined by stunts, not legislation. Far more of a trouble maker than a problem solver. And his closing line sounds to me like “how much worse can it be?” I think we’ve seen plenty of recent examples that remind us that it can always be a lot worse.
Proft (his guy) handled Rauner political operations for like 38 days so it’s fun that one Floridian is going after another.
To the ad?
It’s “like a” B-?
The real problem with this ad is that Pritzker’s Crew has been exceptionally good at already framing who Bailey IS.
After the ads defining Bailey for so long, and to this ad, what exactly are these problems Bailey solved?
A problem that children need to be forced to have a pregnancy to term? Well, that wasn’t solved, Bailey was on the wrong side of that.
A problem of a budget? If Bailey had his way, Illinois might still be budgetless?
A problem of infrastructure? How did Bailey vote on that? Is Bailey solving the need for better bridges or roads?
My point?
The defining of what or who Bailey IS or WAS, can’t unring a bell that has Bailey too extreme in a well-thought ad for someone who may be in an equal footing at it’s airing.
This type of ad reminds folks what they hate about Bailey, a guy looking for solutions to problems Bailey is creating for women, the budget, and our infrastructure.
The ad is a B-
I was not tasked to rate an effectiveness, “per se”
Its a good ad, although I have low expectations of Bailey (and Proft). Were Bailey to keep his message simple like this, limit his comments on other issues, then he’d do himself a favor. Still, I wouldn’t vote for him in a million years.
Keeping in mind the actual mathematical idea that Bailey *requires* Raunerites to vote for him to keep the race at least close… it’s an odd flex of pettiness to continually divide the alleged GOP “big tent”
For the cult, it’s genius to go after Rauner, I’m here for anything that continually divides the cultists and the destructionists.
:)
- former cubs fan - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:26 am:
it doesn’t matter if its a Bailey ad, or a pritzker ad, every time bailey is heard speaking, he loses votes in cook and the collar counties. period.
The ad is a C, won’t move the ball much in either direction but isn’t going to lose him a lot of votes either.
This is very beside the point, but it’s funny that PWPBTR equates “practical problem solver” with “unpopular with the establishment of both parties.” Obviously everyone has their own self-serving definitions, but solution-focused, realistic politicians tend to be very popular with insiders. Bailey’s probably familiar with that dynamic because practical problem solvers have had to solve the problems Bailey and his friends cause: https://capitolfax.com/2020/05/23/sen-dale-righter-cleans-up-eastern-bloc-members-mess/
“a try” is a poor choice of words, as it makes it sound like electing Bailey is a gamble, something that might or might not work.
Could have easily been, “…we put a practical problem solver in charge?” Something like that would sound a lot more like a solid solution.
There’s also no mention of any specific problems solved. If either ad mentioned a specific problem Bailey helped solve, they would be a lot more effective.
The ad is a very generous “C”. He hits some of the culture issues that get his based excited like the billionaire thing, he is very specific about the level of wealth he does not like, that is why I am not surprised he didn’t say “millionaire”.
I can only see this appealing to a small subset of voters, those who have a basic distrust of government. Agree with OW and others, it’s an odd flex to diss Rauner and admit that he has opponents in his own party. The voters who supported him in the primary will support him in the general, so how does this ad pull independents or Republicans who voted for Irvin? Grade: C
=How much worse does it have to get before we give a practical problem solver a try?=
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. I can almost see the bumper sticker now - “Bailey: What the Hell do You Have to Lose?” Short, sweet, doesn’t require much thought, proven effective in his target demographic. Perfect messaging for the grievance crowd. For solving real problems, not so much.
Based on FBI data, Illinois had a violent crime rate of 4.3 incidents per 1,000 going into 2022, compared to 4.0 nationwide. The violent crime rate for 2021 was 4.2 and the rate for 2020 was 4.0.
Illinois property crime rates were several points below the rest of the US at 15.6 incidents per 1,000 people compared to 19.6 nationwide. The property crime rate for 2021 was 18.6 and the rate for 2020 was 19.3.
– MrJM
- Back to the Future - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:52 am:
Started out getting into rating the candidate instead of the Ad, but caught myself.
Ad - -A-
Like the farm scenes. As a farmer friend once told me, “if you like to eat you have to like farmers”.
The Ad shows a hard working fellow and “hard working” is always a good sell.
It appeals to independents and now is the time to try to expand his base and build up his votes among independent voters.
To some voters “Change” is always a positive reason to vote out the incumbent.
Actually liked putting Rauner and Pritzker photos in the Ad.
I like the strategy of dissing Rauner and his own party. He has southern illinois, he has the social conservatives. He is not getting the hard Dems. He has an uphill fight with women. Last bastion of potential voters are independents. As Oswego Willy said he has already been labeled by Pritzkers campaign team. They have moved into labeling him not fit for governing on his lack of policy items. Unfortunately for Bailey this add plays right into what Pritzkers team is doing to label him. I like the add and give it a B+ but it’s way to late to be effective.
Rate is an A - he’s trying to connect with everyday voters, not political junkies. As for the messaging he’s right about unemployment - IL is ranked 45/50 in that stat. And crime remains an issue with votes and the press The Trib/Suntimes both provide grim details of weekend count of deaths and shootings.
B ad. I don’t believe any of it because I know Darren Baby, but he at least is trying to define himself positively (as a practical person) and his opponent negatively (as an out of touch billionaire). That is basically the elements of campaigning.
All this complaining about billionaire governors, yet the ad is paid for by a guy who is a billionaire, hiding behind a pac, of a company that he headquarters in another state.
- Henry Francis - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:27 am:
PE guy Rauner wore a barn coat (uniform of farmers) while Farmer Darren sports fleece vests (uniform of the pe guys). Why do GOP candidates treat their voters like rubes?
==How much worse does it have to get before we give a practical problem solver a try?==
Wow. This line stuck out to me… we tried billionaires, we tried career politicians, we tried everything… how about giving the reins to this guy who hates Chicago and has no clue about why it matters to the rest of the state. Oh, and by the way he is a diehard Christian who plays with guns and would ban abortion if he could.
Remind me again when Rauner signed the income tax increase? If my memory is right, there was a big commotion made by Proft and company over Rauner’s veto being overridden by those RINOs and Chicago Democrats.
I am an independent voter and it most certainly does not appeal to me.
Unemployment would be an issue if it was at 8% but at 4.4% it is not. You can want it to be, but it isn’t, even at 4/10ths of a percent higher than the US average. Those interested in economics know underemployment is a bigger fiscal issue.
=crime remains an issue=. You may want to give MrJM’s post a read. And voters seem to disagree as well.
Ads like this usually include a list of the candidate’s successful bills scrolling by on part of the screen. What has he done legislatively that’s positive?
JB will probably help DarBy out by listing popular bills or issues he voted against.
JB can point to actual accomplishments. All Bailey does is complain.
Independents tend to be folks that take a more balanced approach to choosing a candidate. Bailey’s message is for the cognitive dissonance crowd. Unemployment is high (we’re at full employment) crime is out of control (not support by any real data) schools are being overrun by CRT (can’t even tell you what that is).
As with most Bailey ads, he continues to speak directly to the folks that are already with him. He offers nothing to those that might be persuaded to vote for him whether that’s democrats or independents. You don’t have to be a political junkie to see that.
==We fix things that are broken, we solve problems, and we grow things.”==
My grandfather grew up on a family farm, inherited it, and has grown just as many kids as he has cornfields. I’m not sure if his ability to maintain his crops accurately reflects his ability to run a state.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:12 am:
-a practical problem solver-
OK, I’ll bite. What problem has he “solved” in his time in state government?
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:16 am:
I’ve said for awhile that Bailey would be wise to keep playing up the class distinctions between him and Pritzker. Adding in Rauner is pretty slick.
But picking fights with his own party and conceding that nobody really likes him is pretty sus.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:17 am:
=We fix things that are broken, we solve problems, and we grow things.”=
One solution to “high taxes” he has yet to mention is ending farm subsidies. I wonder why? Ah who is kidding who? I don’t really wonder.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:18 am:
I’d give it a D. The message isn’t bad but the messenger is severely flawed. I’ve seen no evidence that Bailey has solved any problems in the time that he’s held office. His tenure has been defined by stunts, not legislation. Far more of a trouble maker than a problem solver. And his closing line sounds to me like “how much worse can it be?” I think we’ve seen plenty of recent examples that remind us that it can always be a lot worse.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:20 am:
Right, Ron. And what “practical solutions” does he have for “high taxes, high unemployment, and high crime rates?”
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:21 am:
I do like the lil bit at the Floridian Rauner.
Proft (his guy) handled Rauner political operations for like 38 days so it’s fun that one Floridian is going after another.
To the ad?
It’s “like a” B-?
The real problem with this ad is that Pritzker’s Crew has been exceptionally good at already framing who Bailey IS.
After the ads defining Bailey for so long, and to this ad, what exactly are these problems Bailey solved?
A problem that children need to be forced to have a pregnancy to term? Well, that wasn’t solved, Bailey was on the wrong side of that.
A problem of a budget? If Bailey had his way, Illinois might still be budgetless?
A problem of infrastructure? How did Bailey vote on that? Is Bailey solving the need for better bridges or roads?
My point?
The defining of what or who Bailey IS or WAS, can’t unring a bell that has Bailey too extreme in a well-thought ad for someone who may be in an equal footing at it’s airing.
This type of ad reminds folks what they hate about Bailey, a guy looking for solutions to problems Bailey is creating for women, the budget, and our infrastructure.
The ad is a B-
I was not tasked to rate an effectiveness, “per se”
- Ashland Adam - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:22 am:
Its a good ad, although I have low expectations of Bailey (and Proft). Were Bailey to keep his message simple like this, limit his comments on other issues, then he’d do himself a favor. Still, I wouldn’t vote for him in a million years.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:25 am:
Keeping in mind the actual mathematical idea that Bailey *requires* Raunerites to vote for him to keep the race at least close… it’s an odd flex of pettiness to continually divide the alleged GOP “big tent”
For the cult, it’s genius to go after Rauner, I’m here for anything that continually divides the cultists and the destructionists.
:)
- former cubs fan - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:26 am:
it doesn’t matter if its a Bailey ad, or a pritzker ad, every time bailey is heard speaking, he loses votes in cook and the collar counties. period.
- vern - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:36 am:
The ad is a C, won’t move the ball much in either direction but isn’t going to lose him a lot of votes either.
This is very beside the point, but it’s funny that PWPBTR equates “practical problem solver” with “unpopular with the establishment of both parties.” Obviously everyone has their own self-serving definitions, but solution-focused, realistic politicians tend to be very popular with insiders. Bailey’s probably familiar with that dynamic because practical problem solvers have had to solve the problems Bailey and his friends cause: https://capitolfax.com/2020/05/23/sen-dale-righter-cleans-up-eastern-bloc-members-mess/
- Techie - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:37 am:
“a try” is a poor choice of words, as it makes it sound like electing Bailey is a gamble, something that might or might not work.
Could have easily been, “…we put a practical problem solver in charge?” Something like that would sound a lot more like a solid solution.
There’s also no mention of any specific problems solved. If either ad mentioned a specific problem Bailey helped solve, they would be a lot more effective.
These are probably C level ads.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:40 am:
The ad is a very generous “C”. He hits some of the culture issues that get his based excited like the billionaire thing, he is very specific about the level of wealth he does not like, that is why I am not surprised he didn’t say “millionaire”.
- Anonymous 101 - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:42 am:
I can only see this appealing to a small subset of voters, those who have a basic distrust of government. Agree with OW and others, it’s an odd flex to diss Rauner and admit that he has opponents in his own party. The voters who supported him in the primary will support him in the general, so how does this ad pull independents or Republicans who voted for Irvin? Grade: C
- Dysfunction Junction - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:45 am:
=How much worse does it have to get before we give a practical problem solver a try?=
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. I can almost see the bumper sticker now - “Bailey: What the Hell do You Have to Lose?” Short, sweet, doesn’t require much thought, proven effective in his target demographic. Perfect messaging for the grievance crowd. For solving real problems, not so much.
- Curious citizen - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:48 am:
Unemployment is 4.4% in Illinois. If that’s “high,” do they want unemployment at actual zero?
- So of I-64 - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:50 am:
This will appeal to those Eastern Block voters who already back Bailey.
- MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:51 am:
“high unemployment and high crime rates.”
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Illinois had an unemployment rate of 4.4% in July.
Based on FBI data, Illinois had a violent crime rate of 4.3 incidents per 1,000 going into 2022, compared to 4.0 nationwide. The violent crime rate for 2021 was 4.2 and the rate for 2020 was 4.0.
Illinois property crime rates were several points below the rest of the US at 15.6 incidents per 1,000 people compared to 19.6 nationwide. The property crime rate for 2021 was 18.6 and the rate for 2020 was 19.3.
– MrJM
- Back to the Future - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:52 am:
Started out getting into rating the candidate instead of the Ad, but caught myself.
Ad - -A-
Like the farm scenes. As a farmer friend once told me, “if you like to eat you have to like farmers”.
The Ad shows a hard working fellow and “hard working” is always a good sell.
It appeals to independents and now is the time to try to expand his base and build up his votes among independent voters.
To some voters “Change” is always a positive reason to vote out the incumbent.
Actually liked putting Rauner and Pritzker photos in the Ad.
- Nagidam - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 9:53 am:
I like the strategy of dissing Rauner and his own party. He has southern illinois, he has the social conservatives. He is not getting the hard Dems. He has an uphill fight with women. Last bastion of potential voters are independents. As Oswego Willy said he has already been labeled by Pritzkers campaign team. They have moved into labeling him not fit for governing on his lack of policy items. Unfortunately for Bailey this add plays right into what Pritzkers team is doing to label him. I like the add and give it a B+ but it’s way to late to be effective.
- Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:00 am:
Rate is an A - he’s trying to connect with everyday voters, not political junkies. As for the messaging he’s right about unemployment - IL is ranked 45/50 in that stat. And crime remains an issue with votes and the press The Trib/Suntimes both provide grim details of weekend count of deaths and shootings.
https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:17 am:
B ad. I don’t believe any of it because I know Darren Baby, but he at least is trying to define himself positively (as a practical person) and his opponent negatively (as an out of touch billionaire). That is basically the elements of campaigning.
- IronicChuck - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:25 am:
All this complaining about billionaire governors, yet the ad is paid for by a guy who is a billionaire, hiding behind a pac, of a company that he headquarters in another state.
- Henry Francis - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:27 am:
PE guy Rauner wore a barn coat (uniform of farmers) while Farmer Darren sports fleece vests (uniform of the pe guys). Why do GOP candidates treat their voters like rubes?
- Vote Quimby - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:37 am:
==How much worse does it have to get before we give a practical problem solver a try?==
Wow. This line stuck out to me… we tried billionaires, we tried career politicians, we tried everything… how about giving the reins to this guy who hates Chicago and has no clue about why it matters to the rest of the state. Oh, and by the way he is a diehard Christian who plays with guns and would ban abortion if he could.
- SuburbanRepublican - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:38 am:
Remind me again when Rauner signed the income tax increase? If my memory is right, there was a big commotion made by Proft and company over Rauner’s veto being overridden by those RINOs and Chicago Democrats.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:45 am:
=It appeals to independents =
I am an independent voter and it most certainly does not appeal to me.
Unemployment would be an issue if it was at 8% but at 4.4% it is not. You can want it to be, but it isn’t, even at 4/10ths of a percent higher than the US average. Those interested in economics know underemployment is a bigger fiscal issue.
=crime remains an issue=. You may want to give MrJM’s post a read. And voters seem to disagree as well.
- Huh? - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:52 am:
The People Who Play By The Rules PAC has launched a new ad, “Darren Bailey: Practical Problem Solver.”
Too many oxymorons.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:53 am:
Re: the needling of Republican elites: that’s 100% Proft venting his spleen. Which is *fun*, but not really very useful to Bailey.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 10:54 am:
==As for the messaging he’s right about unemployment - IL is ranked 45/50 in that stat.==
Our unemployment rate is 4.4%. That’s low. Are some states lower? Good for them. But that doesn’t make our rate high.
==And crime remains an issue with votes ==
Remains? It never was, at least in the GOV race. That’s why your buddy Irvin is back home in Aurora.
- Jocko - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 11:03 am:
B if this were May…now it’s a C
This ad works if you don’t see January 6th, abortion, or gun control as ‘problems’.
- Lurker - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 11:22 am:
You can’t complain about others money when:
- you won’t reveal your taxes
- your god is a billionaire (even though he has been bankrupt 6 times)
F
- Langhorne - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 11:40 am:
Ads like this usually include a list of the candidate’s successful bills scrolling by on part of the screen. What has he done legislatively that’s positive?
JB will probably help DarBy out by listing popular bills or issues he voted against.
JB can point to actual accomplishments. All Bailey does is complain.
- XonXoff - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 11:45 am:
I’ll grade the ads D. The ‘why’ graph I wrote would never have made it through the filters. D
- New Day - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 12:48 pm:
I’m confused. This is a Proft ad, but it looks like Bailey ad and it was made IN COORDINATION with Bailey. Isn’t that a campaign finance violation?
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 12:54 pm:
=== it was made IN COORDINATION with Bailey===
Proof?
- Pundent - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 12:57 pm:
=It appeals to independents=
Independents tend to be folks that take a more balanced approach to choosing a candidate. Bailey’s message is for the cognitive dissonance crowd. Unemployment is high (we’re at full employment) crime is out of control (not support by any real data) schools are being overrun by CRT (can’t even tell you what that is).
As with most Bailey ads, he continues to speak directly to the folks that are already with him. He offers nothing to those that might be persuaded to vote for him whether that’s democrats or independents. You don’t have to be a political junkie to see that.
- Romeo - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 3:07 pm:
==We fix things that are broken, we solve problems, and we grow things.”==
My grandfather grew up on a family farm, inherited it, and has grown just as many kids as he has cornfields. I’m not sure if his ability to maintain his crops accurately reflects his ability to run a state.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 7, 22 @ 3:43 pm:
===unemployment===
… and yet businesses are complaining they can’t find workers.
Can’t be both.
Good try, thou.
Bailey’s appeal to Independents?
Yeah, sure, now tell suburban women, independents, that Bailey will require children to carry a pregnancy to full term, if he had his way.
Nothing is in a vacuum