Question of the day
Monday, Sep 26, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Politico, July 26…
A group of Republican state legislators who support former President Donald Trump have called on the Illinois GOP to censure Congressman Adam Kinzinger for “incendiary language, wild exaggeration and personal opinions” during the House select committee’s hearings investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.
But GOP governor candidate Darren Bailey, who’s backed by Trump, and Illinois Republican Party President Don Tracy are ignoring the request, signaling a division within the party as the General Election approaches in November.
Political pivot: Bailey and Tracy issued statements worded the same way that address party kumbaya, not Kinzinger. “The Illinois GOP is focused on uniting the party to defeat Gov. [JB] Pritzker in November and make Illinois a safe and affordable place for people to live. That’s what Republicans are rallying around. That is our priority.”
The message being: Bailey and party leaders are working together after a bitter primary and in spite of their historically divergent political views within the Republican Party. Bailey’s far-right-leaning politics holds sway Downstate but not so much in Chicago.
* Politico, August 17…
Darren Bailey has made a major pivot. His team told reporter Mark Maxwell that “Mike Pence followed the constitutional process” and “Joe Biden is the duly elected president.”
Jan. 6 connection: Bailey made his comments in response to a former campaign aide being charged in the attack on the Capitol, according to KSDK’s Maxwell.
‘Definitive’ pivot: “Those comments may represent the most definitive statement from Bailey’s campaign to date about the outcome of the 2020 election and could be another sign Republicans fear litigating the last election might interfere with their designs to win a statewide race in 2022 in a state where Joe Biden won handily,” reports Maxwell.
Don’t go thinking Bailey is woke. On Tuesday, the GOP candidate for governor stood with members of Awake Illinois, an anti-mask, anti-LGBTQ and anti-Critical Race Theory organization, protesting at the state Capitol. Bailey stressed the importance of fighting for “these freedoms that are being taken away from us,” report Tribune’s Jeremy Gorner and Dan Petrella.
* Politico today…
Republican governor candidate Darren Bailey won the endorsement of Donald Trump in the GOP primary, but he’s all but ignored the former president as he heads into November’s General election.
The big pivot: Bailey has “largely avoided answering reporter questions about the former president,” Mark Guarino writes in The Washington Post. There’s a reason, of course. Bailey knows that Chicago and its collar counties lean more to the left than Trump and his acolytes.
The Republican state senator who once pushed Illinois to secede from Chicago, has also pulled back from his anti-abortion claims, acknowledging he can do little to change the state’s laws supporting abortion rights.
The question is whether Bailey’s pivot away from far-right rhetoric is enough to help down-ballot Republicans. State GOP leaders aren’t so sure. They set out on the election season hoping to gain seats in the General Assembly but concede it will still be an uphill climb.
* The Question: How would you rate the success of these multiple “pivot” attempts? Explain.
- Lake Springfield - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:06 am:
Pivot or no pivot, doesn’t really matter. Bailey’s campaign is a tent revival. Trouble is, while the alter call might get the faithful out of their seats, Pritzker will be retaining his.
- Pundent - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:07 am:
It’s easier to rate the attempts as opposed to grading them. And I would rate them “poor.” Bailey’s brand, such as it is, was defined by various stunts meant to captivate his base. While the stunts have been tamed a bit, it still seems to be his ethos. Whether that’s showing up at Washington Park, living in the “inner city” or comparing abortion to the holocaust. Bailey simply seems incapable of getting out of his own way. And that’s probably because he’s still who he always was.
- Cubs in '16 - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:11 am:
I rate it poor. Every time Bailey opens his mouth he undermines his own attempts to make him seem moderate.
- Lurker - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:13 am:
Didn’t we just have a GOP governor candidate that kept pivoting and tried to ignore media? Yeah, I’d say Bailey’s success is similar.
- We’ll See - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:15 am:
Given that die is cast regarding Bailey’s upcoming defeat he may as well keeping up with audience/regional pivoting with hopes in helping down ballot candidates.
- Lakefront - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:22 am:
It’s impossible for Darren Bailey to pivot, so I’d rate them poorly. Answering reporter questions and issuing statements that contradict your long-held views seems disingenuous. I somewhat feel bad for Bailey because our culture attaches a strong stereotype to his “style”, language and demeanor. Even if he endorsed Lori Lightfoot few opinions on him would probably change.
- God's Country - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:23 am:
I think it’s tough to make a believable pivot when there’s so much evidence displaying his thoughts (and actions) to the contrary.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:24 am:
What do luggage, herpes and a Trump endorsement have in common? Once you have them, you have them forever.
I rate it poor, mostly because Bailey’s heart just isn’t in it.
- DuPage Saint - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:25 am:
Totally unsuccessful. All it does us emphasize the fact that he has no core beliefs. Maybe it shows he is growing as a person to be kind but he is a wind sock
- Arsenal - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:29 am:
Poorly. Bailey has not announced any more moderate position on these issues or tried to come at them from a different angle. He’s just not talking about them (or much of anything else). And that has let Pritzker define him by the previous extreme statements he made.
- Socially DIstant watcher - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:29 am:
Bailey’s statement on Pence doesn’t acknowledge that the vice president’s role is purely ceremonial and that the vice president cannot decide which electors to count. It’s more of a dodge than a pivot; Trumpers can continue to say that Pense made a judgement error while agreeing with Bailey’s statement that gaveling the meeting to order fulfilled constitutional duties.
- SWSider - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:30 am:
I honestly find it fascinating. He must think, at some level, he has a chance to win.
He does not.
- Huh? - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:31 am:
If beetle keeps pivoting, pretty soon he will be spinning like a top.
The internet is forever. Past comments on abortion, tramp endorsement, etc are easily resurrected.
- vern - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:33 am:
I’m not going to rate the pivots because I don’t believe they exist as described. All I see here is Shia trying to manufacture a narrative out of scraps and bailing wire, which has been totally unsuccessful. She has seemingly achieved a stunning level of supervisory neglect at Politico, so that’s something.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:35 am:
“Darren Bailey has made a major pivot.”
Queue an anti-Bailey PAC ad: Bailey used TFG to win the election but doesn’t really believe in him.
Rated not good. Bailey’s going all Irvin, pivoting and deflecting. That’s why for many, there is only one political leader (TFG) they can always count on. Politicians concerned about extremism should not do things to empower extremists, like being so calculating and using voters.
- Correcting - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:37 am:
How is it a pivot? What did Bailey say prior to the Maxwell interview? I recall a forum from last year where Bailey said he was opposed to an audit of the 2020 election which elicited boos from the conservative audience. The people who are trying to censure Kinzinger are doing it for reasons other than the certification of the 2020 results otherwise wouldn’t you see a movement to censure LaHood? Did Bailey pivot to saying the IL GOP should no longer censure Kinzinger? Did he tell his Republican colleagues to drop it?
- 40,000 ft - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:46 am:
Trump was a good President who has been under attack from the establishment since his announcement.
It’s too bad that the outrage machine doesn’t know when to stop bullying and censoring honest and valid thought.
Bailey should boldly state the positive elements of Trump’s presidency and lose the presumption of a pivot.
(This comment will probably be denied publication due to the emotional stability of the audience and their lack of prudentia-based understanding. Oh well.)
- Vote Quimby - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:50 am:
==I don’t believe they exist as described. All I see here is Shia trying to manufacture a narrative==
vern, you have seemingly achieved a stunning level of (banned uncivil comment). Here is Darren Bailey on Twitter in January 2021:
I encourage the @ILGOP to call on Congressman Kinzinger to stand down, or outright condemn his latest personal and political attack on President Trump and the tens of millions of Americans who support the President.
Darren Bailey in July 2022: The Illinois GOP is focused on uniting the party to defeat Gov. Pritzker in November and make Illinois a safe and affordable place for people to live. That’s what Republicans are rallying around. That is our priority.”
That’s not a pivot?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 11:52 am:
===out of scraps and bailing wire===
Shoulda said twine. /s
- west wing - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:00 pm:
Bailey’s pivot is about as successful as Dems pivot on crime — weak effort to date. Crime continues to be a major drag on Democrats (Jen Psaki reinforced that yesterday on “Meet the Press”) and Dems in the blue bubble have been incredibly slow to react and modulate, as usual. Ditto for the far right / Bailey crowd on Jan 6 / Trump.
- Jerry - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:01 pm:
Well finally someone has stood up and is lobbying for teachers to quit teaching kindergartners theories taught in Graduate School!
- H-W - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:06 pm:
I would rate them as essential for the maintenance of one large party. The pivoting is rational behavior. In essence, Republicans have always defined the party as a rules and order party. The rules exist, we play by the rules, the rules are good, etc.
The current situation seems to be one in which some members are committed to the rules for rules sake for of authoritarianism. Another set of members seems to be more committed to the person in the position of authority, than to the source of that authority (the rules). Indeed, the latter seem to think the person in the position of power (not authority) has the legal right to make rules as they see fit (think: DeSantis, Trump, and even Palin, Ryan, etc.).
This break between laws and order, versus power, seems to represent the dilemma for the Republican Party today. In that context, for Bailey to appear to be “distancing” himself from Trump (but not Trumpism) is a rational act. It is an attempt to maximize voter turnout from both sides of the Republican aisle, in hopes of garnering enough votes to be at least competitive in Illinois.
- walker - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:07 pm:
Yeah, not so much. Not that important anyway.
My concern is that the economy could trump these highly partisan issues in driving voters away from incumbents. Bailey cannot win, but other GOPers can.
- ANNON'IN - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:10 pm:
Sadly we have so many GOPie double crosses (aka pivots)that the warrant no evaluation because they are all lies digging deeper holes for the other GOPies
- vern - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:17 pm:
===Shoulda said twine. /s===
And with that suggestion, my comment has now received more editing attention than the average Playbook.
- Vote Quimby - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:23 pm:
==Did he tell his Republican colleagues to drop it?==
Yes, as referenced in the “unedited” (according to vern) Politico articles.
- JS Mill - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:23 pm:
Using different words is not a pivot, it just means someone from his campaign ran over to Barnes and Noble and bought a thesaurus.
- thisjustinagain - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:30 pm:
Bailey’s gonna be the ADBA spokesperson: If you can dodge, duck, dive, dip and…dodge, you’ll either not get elected anyway, or be the new Richard Irwin tripping up your own campaign.
- clec dcn - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:37 pm:
Bailey has no chance to win at all and he is hopelessly lost. I don’t even think he knows what a pivot is and I wonder what he plans to do after November. He has not made too many friends to me.
- Steve Rogers - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:47 pm:
I’d say the pivoting is going about as well as this pivot:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n67RYI_0sc0
- vern - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:56 pm:
===That’s not a pivot?===
As has been repeatedly demonstrated, Bailey will often go back on these purported “pivots” depending on the audience. So far, nothing that he’s apologized for, flip-flopped on, or elided has lasted more than a few days. The term “pivot” requires a level of message discipline wholly inaccessible to Bailey. Otherwise he wouldn’t be staying in the Hancock Building. The guy can’t even stop himself from referring to Jewish Illinoisans as “my Israel friends.”
A pivot is something that happens in normal, functional campaigns. Bailey’s running the opposite of that. I understand the instinct to try cramming this square peg into a round hole. But at the end of the day, anything that looks like a strategy here is a combination of coincidence and observers’ priors about what campaigns do.
- G'Kar - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 12:58 pm:
Here’s the WaPo article mentioned by Politico above. It is not behind a paywall.
https://wapo.st/3dOpjVB
- Demoralized - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 1:07 pm:
Well, he just engaged in a mortal sin among Republicans by acknowledging there was no fraud and that Biden is the legitimately elected President. That had to tick a lot of his base off. And he can forget about any sort of endorsement for the general election from Trump now. And, that pivot isn’t going to help with any votes in my opinion because he’s already waffled on it in the past. Can’t erase what you’ve said in the past. Richard Irvin tried it. Didn’t work out to well for him. So, overall, I think this pivot doesn’t mean squat for attracting votes in the general.
- Inverted Pyramid - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 2:05 pm:
Psalms 101:7
No one who practices deceit will dwell in my house; no one who speaks falsely will stand in my presence.
- MisterJayEm - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 3:09 pm:
Bailey is in a bind: he needs to convince moderate general election voters that he’s not a Trump loon without offending the very Trump loons who carried him through the primary election.
– MrJM
- bogey golfer - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 3:43 pm:
In basketball terms, He is dragging his pivot foot. Called for walking.
- XonXoff - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 4:27 pm:
Poor. Unconvincing. It remains to be seen whether the TFG endorsement came with a template and obligation to take the election to court.
- thoughts matter - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 6:09 pm:
Those of us that can remember what he said before aren’t going to be persuaded by a pivot. Those of us who can’t remember but will use the internet won’t be persuaded by a pivot. So pivots only work for low information voters who 1) have ignored him up until now and 2) won’t do any research or 3) would vote a straight Republican ticket if that option existed.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 26, 22 @ 7:10 pm:
===prudentia-based understanding===
I Googled that phrase in quotes and got nothing https://www.google.com/search?q=%22prudentia-based+understanding%22&client=firefox-b-1-e&sxsrf=ALiCzsYR0WcYqF5yeDcHt9xzN4d77ztQ4w%3A1664237306307&ei=-j4yY423EsmYptQPpoCOgAI&ved=0ahUKEwiNnNuL17P6AhVJjIkEHSaAAyAQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=%22prudentia-based+understanding%22&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyBwghEKABEAoyBwghEKABEAoyBwghEKABEAoyBQghEKsCMgUIIRCrAjoKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzoNCAAQRxDWBBCwAxDJAzoECCMQJ0oECEEYAEoECEYYAFCVBVj2E2CBFmgBcAF4AIABpwGIAYkDkgEDMC4zmAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz
So, congratulations, you just created a Googlewhack with your gobbledygook nonsense https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Googlewhack