* Stay tuned for updates…
…Adding… More…
POTUS above water is really bad news for Republicans here.
…Adding….
* From the story…
But despite Bailey’s efforts, and an onslaught of political ads paid for by Dan Proft’s “People Who Play By the Rules” PAC, Illinois likely voters say the economy is still the No. 1 issue (35%) driving their vote in November, followed by threats to democracy (17%) and abortion access (14%).
Crime is fourth on that list, with only 10% of voters picking the issue as their top concern. Of that group, the advantage does go to Bailey. About 58% of those who say crime is their top issue support his campaign. […]
Since the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v Wade, Pritzker and Democratic allies have leaned into their support for abortion rights, promising to expand access for women. The strategy appears to be paying off, with 90% of those who say abortion access is their top concern planning to vote for his re-election. Pritzker also has broad support among female likely voters with 55% of women polled planning to vote for him, and 46% going for Bailey. Male voters were nearly split, with 46% supporting Pritzker and 44% supporting Bailey.
If memory serves, Pritzker also outpolled Bruce Rauner among men four years ago.
…Adding…. Full poll is here. Tell us what you find.
…Adding… More…
* And one more…
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:33 pm:
Those Proft ads, they are so effective.
- ArchPundit - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:36 pm:
Darn it, Arsenal. Beat me to it.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:40 pm:
Campaigns are marathons, rarely are they sprints.
June? July? That seems like a year ago.
Throw in abortion, gas prices lowering, Trump inserting himself needlessly, as POTUS (here) is above water?
When does early voting begin?
Pritzker, over 50%, up double digits, and POTUS above water…
Griffin bet early, lost, “left Dodge”… saved millionS… plural…
The biggest winner in the poll isn’t Pritzker. Stop, c’mon.
The biggest winner is Proft.
Got paid early, getting paid now. Anything closer than 15 points will be “Proft closed the gap”… anything 15 or greater “Proft had a steep hill”
The checks, they all cash the same.
- Cubs in '16 - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:40 pm:
Good thing Bailey moved to the “inner city” of Chicago to immerse himself in the culture. He might otherwise be polling under 30%.
- Hot Taeks - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:41 pm:
Just one poll but sounds about right (don’t want to weigh it too much because any one poll could be an outlier). Thankful we got one high quality one before October.
- Montrose - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:43 pm:
But Fox told me it’s a tight race. This has to be a shocker to them. /s
- TheInvisibleMan - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:45 pm:
This will be the first time I ever watch a governors debate on TV.
I love a good whoppin’.
- Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:48 pm:
50% of the poll sample from people who identify as suburban. Looks like Bailey isn’t picking up as many of that group as he needs to. The Governor winning among every ethnic group. Bailey being upside down in favorable/unfavorable. I don’t see anything in this poll that is encouraging for Bailey.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:52 pm:
“POTUS above water”
Biden has done much to help Illinois in just two years, in terms of infrastructure and human investment, like capping Medicare costs in the future. Not joking, folks. [exclamation point and scratching side of nose with index finger] My daddy used to say, “When you fall down, you get right back up again.” [clearing throat into fist] No I really mean it (exclamation point). Some Bidenisms.
- Bunga - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:54 pm:
This is the kind of poll that downballot Republicans would very much dread. If I’m Regan Deering and King right now, I’d be screaming at Darren Bailey.
- Steve - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:54 pm:
Polls prove one thing–women are smarter than men
- So_Ill - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:54 pm:
This race will be called at 7:01.
- H-W - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:57 pm:
The last poll is interesting. A large plurality believes eliminating bail for some offenses will increase crime. I am not sure how that would actually work. But the antithesis sure hasn’t. Requiring bail has not reduced crime. Perhaps some Illinoisans believe criminals ask themselves, “what sort of crimes can I commit without having to pay bail?” I don’t know, but I think that’s foolishness speaking.
- AcademicUnionStateEmployee - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:57 pm:
Any other polls on the other statewide races?
- vern - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 2:59 pm:
The SAFE-T Act numbers are really interesting. 47% think it will increase crime, so 53% spread across no change, don’t know, and will lower crime. The bill is obviously polling worse than Pritzker, but not by such a margin or intensity that it’s serving as much of an anchor.
This set of respondents certainly don’t believe a Purge is coming, even if they hold a negative view of the law itself. It’s strong evidence that Republicans’ histrionics haven’t broken through to the general public in a way that will affect the election.
- Dance Band on the Titanic - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:00 pm:
Bailey barely cracking 50% in “rural” is stunning. That’s supposed to be his strength.
He might want to abandon his Mag Mile residence and get back down there to start shoring that back up.
- Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:01 pm:
This polling data is another great example of how Pritzker and Dems lost the message on cashless bail. Just like the graduated income tax. The finish line is not when you sign the bill and the media leaves the event. That is just the beginning.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:03 pm:
===Crime is fourth on that list===
Folks like - LP -, seriously… crime is not a top issue.
The math here…
===No. 1 issue (35%) driving their vote in November, followed by threats to democracy (17%) and abortion access (14%).===
It’s nearly a wash?
Economy (GOP) vs. Threats to Democracy and Abortion (Dem)
Interesting
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:04 pm:
- Almost the Weekend -
Looks like too.. no political fallout?
Pritzker is comfortable
- Kayak - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:04 pm:
Ouch. Reminds me of that last guy. = And I said I’ll step aside, I’ll give you huge financial resources, you run for governor, I’ll support you. You have as good or better chance to get elected than me. All four of them said no, too tough, too unlikely, too difficult,” said Governor Bruce Rauner =
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:04 pm:
-Crime is fourth on that list, with only 10% of voters picking the issue as their top concern.-
Keep pounding those “effective” ads on the #4 issue guys. Seems to be working out reeeeal well.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:06 pm:
I had a little trouble with the download, but if I’m reading the xtabs right, then Bailey is winning not just on crime (58-27) but also Immigration (70-19) and even the economy (57-28), which makes it really puzzling why crime is the centerpiece and the economy isn’t since it’s the #1 issue for all voters.
On the other hand, Pritzker wins abortion (90-3), threats to democracy (84-11), health care (62-22, small n) and education (67-14, really small n).
Looks like those last 4 issues, in total, and abortion and democracy specifically, are the issues potentially moving this from an red wave to a somewhat favorable D environment.
- Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:08 pm:
=Looks like too.. no political fallout?
Pritzker is comfortable=
Tell that to the Dem legislators in burbs and South of I-80, who JB is going to need to pass any significant legislation before he decides to run for POTUS.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:10 pm:
==This polling data is another great example of how Pritzker and Dems lost the message on cashless bail.==
Eh. If this poll is accurate, it’s about a 50-50 issue and Pritzker’s gonna live to fight another day. That’s fine.
==The finish line is not when you sign the bill and the media leaves the event. ==
No, sometimes it is. You have to win an election, then enact your policy, and frankly a lot of the time that is just about it. The next election is too far away and might not even be fought on that policy. If it is, then all that really matters is if the policy works or not. Messaging won’t really save you if it doesn’t.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:14 pm:
To my prior post — Might want to pivot to issue #1, the economy. Sure can’t talk about abortion or saving democracy, can we Sen. Bailey?
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:14 pm:
=== Large majority support Assault Weapons Ban ===
Wouldn’t it be nice if Republicans weren’t in bed with the NRA?
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:15 pm:
The Proft ads have contributed to 47% believing the SAFE T act will increase crime
23% agree with you that it will lower crime
It is not surprising the economy is the # issue, it always is
What are the threats to Democracy in Illinois everyone is so concerned about?
- vern - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:18 pm:
=== Pritzker and Dems lost the message on cashless bail.===
I’m not sure I understand this take. 47% oppose, 53% are either neutral or supportive. Pritzker’s standing hasn’t been impacted, and crime hasn’t jumped to the top of voters’ priority list. It’s not as popular as Pritzker, but remember that plenty of Dems voted against it in the legislature. It’s around a 50-50 issue, got just above 50% in the legislature, and public opinion has basically lined up the same as the legislature in the ensuing months.
You sound very confident in your conclusion but I can’t find it in the numbers.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:21 pm:
If this poll is to be believed…
If there is little fallout to Pritzker against Bailey, when considering the Safe-T Act, and Crime is fourth, even behind abortion…
What *good* does the GOP see here when you add POTUS above water too… with the Economy #1?
You can’t spin out of this a path… simply because…
“You can’t beat someone with no one”
Bailey is polling only better than “no one”… lol
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:22 pm:
===What are the threats to Democracy in Illinois everyone is so concerned about?===
You’ve been an insurrection apologist, a Trumpkin, so your faux confusion here is part of your schtick.
Good try.
- MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:23 pm:
“Full poll is here. Tell us what you find.”
28% of respondents said that the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them MORE LIKELY to support Donald Trump if he runs for election in 2024.
nihilism /nī′ə-lĭz″əm/ noun. a philosophy, or family of views within philosophy, that rejects generally accepted or fundamental aspects of human existence, such as objective truth, knowledge, morality, values, or meaning.
– MrJM
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:25 pm:
Many people thankfully don’t experience crime, but practically everybody is impacted by inflation. Illinois acted to give inflation relief, but only one candidate is focused on it. Republicans are very limited by their voters, who are living in fear of the disadvantaged like trans people, that they may be accepted and have a voice in schools. Republicans have to play to that.
- Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:27 pm:
==The Proft ads have contributed to 47% believing the SAFE T act will increase crime==
You seem pretty sure without any data to back that up. Besides, what difference does it make if you can’t get anyone elected who might change it?
==It is not surprising the economy is the # issue, it always is==
Then why are they beating the crime drum so much? They appear to be tone deaf to the concerns of the voters.
==What are the threats to Democracy in Illinois everyone is so concerned about?==
Umm, there are plenty of kooks in Illinois who supported the attempt to ignore the results of an election.
- vern - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:31 pm:
The other interesting thing about this poll is Bailey at 36%. That’s better than Rauner did in any 2018 poll, probably reflecting the better R cycle and the lower 3rd party vote. Bailey is probably on track to do better than Rauner even as JB is likely to have a higher vote share than 2018. A 56-41-3 result isn’t going to do anything to resolve the fights within the ILGOP about how to approach general elections. But the far right is going to have a new talking point if Bailey does get a higher percentage than Rauner.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:33 pm:
===What are the threats to Democracy in Illinois everyone is so concerned about?===
The question was what issues are driving their votes in November. Federal offices are also on the ballot. It’s the GOP candidates up and down the ballot that should be concerned if that is polling so high, as those people aren’t voting for them. Also, if you can’t say who the President is, you have no business in public office anywhere.
- supplied_demand - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:34 pm:
==What are the threats to Democracy in Illinois everyone is so concerned about? ==
Came to clarify that Illinois is a state within the United States.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:44 pm:
==The Proft ads have contributed to 47% believing the SAFE T act will increase crime ==
That’s a dubious conclusion given that those ads have barely been on the air.
==Then why are they beating the crime drum so much?==
Because “the economy” encompasses a LOT of stuff…including all the other issues, frankly. Crime, even, is an economic issue.
But I would agree that crime being the #4 issue but the one Republicans are so focused on indicates that it might not be Dems who are letting the messaging get away from them.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:44 pm:
“What are the threats to Democracy in Illinois everyone is so concerned about?”
Attempted violent overthrow of our democracy. TFG still spouting that the election was stolen from him. The ILGOP keeping the door wide open to TFG and MAGA by strongly opposing impeachment.
How telling is it that certain people are obsessed about POC crime but think nothing of a white mob attacking law enforcement and nearly toppling the national government?
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:49 pm:
What an outrageous lie OW
I never defended the insurrection apologize immediately
There are 19 Illinois residents charged in the January 6th criminal investigation. Insurrection is not even what they are charged with.
11 people are charged with the most serious offense seditious conspiracy or treason.
I am also not a Trumpkin just a Republican like you still claim to be
- Roman - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:53 pm:
47.6 believe it will increase crime, 10.6 believe it will decrease crime. That’s a pretty big gap.
But it seems not to matter. Voters are not overly worried about crime and don’t blame Pritzker. Mayor Lightfoot might be a different story. We’ll see. One election at a time.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 3:56 pm:
===Voters are not overly worried about crime and don’t blame Pritzker. Mayor Lightfoot might be a different story.===
This is a very tasty morsel of possible truth.
Man, that’s like catnip to all the mayoral wannabes.
Is it a precursor to February 2023? Maybe? No? I dunno.
- supplied_demand - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:02 pm:
==47.6 believe it will increase crime, 10.6 believe it will decrease crime. That’s a pretty big gap.==
Let’s not forget to add the 29.1% who think it will have no impact on crime. With that you have 48% who it will increase crime and 40% who think it won’t. Not bad considering the money spent against it.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:03 pm:
===I never defended the insurrection apologize immediately
There are 19 Illinois residents charged in the January 6th criminal investigation. Insurrection is not even what they are charged with.===
Please stop. Just stop. Full stop.
You have been adamant, “it’s not an insurrection”, you’ve gone out of you way to never call January 6th exactly what it was.
By merely *parsing*… parsing… the idea about what January 6th was.. you are an apologist to the whole episode.
They had $@&#% t-shirts, it was to overturn a fair and free election, you see it “different”
The only way it works, me REQUIRED to apologize is if you called it an insurrection, and you can’t even do that HERE.
So stop, full stop.
===I am also not a Trumpkin===
Nah, “asked and answered” with you many a time
It’s exactly like saying “look, I don’t agree with David Duke, but golly, on policy, I’m with him”
You did that for 4 years, you’ve yet to denounce Trump when given the chance, even now.
You aren’t like me, you are trying to equate me, lol
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:11 pm:
Too many words to say absolutely nothing.
I never defended insurrectionists or seditious conspiracists or whatever you want to call them.
I also don’t agree with David Duke who originally ran for office as a Democrat on any issue
Go ahead and continue to make self righteous, uncivil comments that have no basis in reality if it really makes you feel better about yourself.
- thisjustinagain - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:12 pm:
Bailey is in trouble; the ILGOP generally ain’t doin’ much bettah. And 46% of the people supporting a rifle ban is no surprise; they swallowed the anti-gun lies for years in Illinois, but they do not realize the rules of bans have changed to the good of law-abiding citizen and Constitutional rights going forward. When the “No” and “undecided” put together are more than your “Yes”, it’s hardly an overwhelming majority.
- Baloneymous - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:22 pm:
===There are 19 Illinois residents charged in the January 6th criminal investigation. Insurrection is not even what they are charged with.===
What are things an insurrectionist apologist would say for $400 Alex.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:31 pm:
To bring this back, to the post,
Bailey’s very unfavorables at over 1/3 of those polled, Bailey needs to make up 15 points with 1/3 of those polled seeing Bailey very unfavorable, what’s Bailey’s path?
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:32 pm:
==Tell that to the Dem legislators in burbs and South of I-80==
Feel free to post the poll showing them in trouble, but when the top of the ticket is ahead by 15-20 points, an awful lot of them are gonna be saved, too.
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:33 pm:
Not sure Proft’s ads are having the desired effect. Radical’s supported by radical advertising isn’t hard to see through.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:36 pm:
===Tell that to the Dem legislators in burbs and South of I-80===
Which ones, be specific.
Also, you think either chambers in the ILGA is gonna flip?
This poll likely reinforces there’s little worry for GOP folks, especially GOP legislative candidates that are pro-life.
- ChicagoBars - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:37 pm:
Anecdotally after passing petition sheets for a few north side Chicago candidates over last 15 months I think crime and Safe-T Act is going to be a much bigger issue for Chicago municipal races than anything next month. Voters who don’t closely follow politics are laying that issue on City and County steps not Statehouse steps.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:44 pm:
===And 46% of the people supporting a rifle ban is no surprise;===
54 percent.
- Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 4:53 pm:
- apologize immediately -
Calm down snowflake, this is a blog comment section.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 5:03 pm:
===I never defended insurrectionists or seditious conspiracists or whatever you want to call them.===
That’s “1”
Not what I said, you still refuse to see this as an insurrection, dismissing it, seeing it far different than what it is. Not what I said, that’s “1”
“2”?
===I also don’t agree with David Duke who originally ran for office as a Democrat on any issue===
Again, nowhere near what I said.
===It’s exactly like saying===
The comparison is equating agreement on policy, which you gleefully said you did with Trump, you overlook the racist thinkings, conspiracy theories , even those insurrection apologists. Daily, you complained DC Dems had it wrong with Trump. No response to what was said. Typical.
Then there’s the deflected phony, your signature, with a hint of you being a victim too
===Go ahead and continue to make self righteous, uncivil comments that have no basis in reality if it really makes you feel better about yourself.===
If anything, you coulda supported Kinzinger over Trump. You never did, even with impeachment… which you opposed
So please… stop.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 5:12 pm:
=which makes it really puzzling why crime is the centerpiece and the economy isn’t since it’s the #1 issue for all voters.=
Because bailey et al are culture warriors and not interested in government other than to undermine it.
====What are the threats to Democracy in Illinois everyone is so concerned about?====
By name…darren bailey, Tom devore, mary miller, chris miller, donald trump
Just to name a few
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 5:28 pm:
== I never defended insurrectionists or seditious conspiracists or whatever you want to call them.==
Well, the claim was that you were an apologist for them, and frankly, this very dismissive language you used right here, this “whatever you want to call them”, that’s apologism.
== Go ahead and continue to make self righteous, uncivil comments that have no basis in reality ==
This is really rich coming from the “the Republican is winning so long as we don’t count that last half a million votes” guy.
- MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 5:39 pm:
“David Duke who originally ran for office as a Democrat”
Duke eventually found his forever home in the GOP.
– MrJM
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 5:44 pm:
===Duke eventually found his forever home in the GOP.===
That’s good stuff - MisterJayEm -
Let’s tie this off for - LP -, with GHWB, and he disavowing Duke in 1991…
NYT…
===The President and other Republican leaders in Washington have repeatedly disavowed Mr. Duke since the October primary, but none has been as harshly critical or has come as close to endorsing a vote for Mr. Edwards as President Bush did today.
The President said, “I have got to be careful, because I don’t want to tell the voters of Louisiana how to cast their ballot.”
Yet he said: “When someone has a long record, an ugly record of racism and of bigotry, that record simply cannot be erased by the glib rhetoric of a political campaign. So I believe David Duke is an insincere charlatan. I believe he’s attempting to hoodwink the voters of Louisiana, I believe he should be rejected for what he is and what he stands for.”===
You can’t do that for Trump… welp…
- Common Sense - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 7:27 pm:
Poll numbers are hard to believe. I mean, 35% of Illinois believe Bailey is fit to be governor? Unbelievable.
- Suburban Mom - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 7:55 pm:
Striking to me that Pritzker’s rural support — 37% — almost exactly matches Bailey’s SUBURBAN support. That’s no kind of way to run a statewide campaign.
- Minnie Pearl Jam - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 9:25 pm:
Meh. JB winning 60/40 is a shoulder shrug.
You get what you pay for.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 28, 22 @ 10:08 pm:
===You get what you pay for.===
Duckworth hadn’t spent a dime on TV until this week.
- West on I80 - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 1:35 am:
Hard to believe any poll that has Biden with good numbers. There is not a single house out here that had a Biden/Harris sign in their yard in 2020 that is displaying support for Pritzker, Duckworth, etc.
I think JB will win, but it will not be the big gap so many on here assume.
- West on I80 - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 1:40 am:
Vast majority of folks vote their wallet, for their children’s best interest and personal safety in any election whether it be local, state or national.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 6:37 am:
=== There is not a single house out here===
Yard signs don’t vote. Anecdotes ain’t data.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 7:36 am:
===Vast majority of folks===
… and yet this poll has only 35% saying economy is driving their votes.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 8:19 am:
==I think JB will win, but it will not be the big gap so many on here assume. ==
I, too, would be surprised if JB wins by 15, but frankly, it’s getting hard to find evidence for that conclusion.
He’s got a big lead in the polls, Bailey isn’t even on the air, and the national environment isn’t really catastrophic for Dems anymore. There’s an element of “Who are you gonna believe, me or your lyin’ eyes?” to this.