Trump: “Darren has my complete and total endorsement.”
Why? Because Darren Bailey spread Trump’s lies about the 2020 election.
Like Trump, Bailey stands with the NRA against banning assault weapons.
And Bailey wants to outlaw abortion even in cases of rape or incest.
Bailey: “I’ve made a promise to President Trump that in 2024, Illinois will roll out the red carpet out for him, because Illinois will be ready for President Trump.”
42 Comments
- Mr. Potato Head - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 8:56 am:
It’s a good ad. I’d give it a B+. To the extent there are any undecided voters it reminds them of who both men are. Donald Trump has not fared well anytime he’s been on a ballot in Illinois. Darren is a disciple of Donald Trump. You don’t need to convey much more than that. At the end the reality of this election is no different than it was at the beginning.
That’s very possible, considering some national trendlines.
But when Rod Blagojevich was way ahead of Judy Baar Topinka in 2006, he really poured it on at the end like nobody had ever seen before here.
Turns out, because he was in a three-person race and the Green Party candidate was keeping him under 50 percent, Blagojevich decided he wanted to reach that majority mark for perception and governing reasons (Madigan). He ended up missing it by just a hair, 49.79 percent. JBT got 39.26 percent, and Rich Whitney got 10.36 percent. https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx
The Libertarian this year has been polling fairly high.
Not saying this is the reason at all. Just saying that not everything is always what it may seem.
That’s the only reason I even called out the drive by.
If the reason is “always run like you’re 10 points behind”, yeah, that’s a “fear” or being “scared”
As only an observation, including the Chicago early voting, there seems to be more fatigue and not much surging, and if it’s on the Dem side, yeah that is a reason to be “scared” too.
The ad to itself? Folks voted already know why they are voting for whom, and the choice is made… done.
This is an ad, for me, to the straggler, the fatigued voter, the one not motivated… ginning up one more time Trump, who doesn’t poll well.
The other side, including or riffing off Rich’s story? I dunno anything about anything to the thinking internally to Pritzker hitting the gas, why, or motive. Still, it could be a real possibility as much as anything.
- Paddyrollingstone - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:17 am:
As a Dem, I’m glad he’s running scared. Everyone should, all the time. Whatever metaphor suits you - don’t take your foot of the gas; don’t celebrate until your on the bus ride home; beat the other guy like a rented mule - just win, baby. Just win.
Best part about it uses bailey’s own words and he cannot dispute what he said.
Pritzker needs to ramp up the intensity in these last few days and run every single ad 24/7.
- Mr. Middle Ground - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:38 am:
Ad is a B. Message is clear. Trump remains particularly unpopular in the suburbs which is where the final days of the race will be spent.
I’m not convinced it moves many undecideds. Trump endorsed Bailey months ago. It was well covered then and advertised heavily since. It is just message reinforcement.
The Governor’s team is essentially saying: Food costs too much. Gas costs too much. Your kids learned less in the last two years than the generation did before them. But Trump supports this guy and your problems could be way worse.
If Pritzker is up 7-10 points, it’s not about persuasion, it’s about voting the already converted.
- George Ryan Reynolds - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:44 am:
Gov not letting up. Also a natural response if gov campaign operation sensed even the slightest of tightening as Election Day approaches (or they’re trying to goose early voting to avoid day-of problems some may have).
== If the reason is “always run like you’re 10 points behind”, yeah, that’s a “fear” or being “scared”==
Two weeks ago the criticism was that Pritzker was not “running like he was 10 points behind”. Some people are just looking for reasons to guess he’s in trouble.
Meanwhile, his opponent struggled to even keep an ad on the air.
Undecideds can be measured in two ways. Those that haven’t made up their mind on who they’re voting for (likely few) and those that haven’t decided whether it’s worth voting at all. The ad likely targets the second group.
He spent $30 million in R primary so he could make this commercial.
- Mr. Middle Ground - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 10:02 am:
===those that haven’t decided whether it’s worth voting at all. The ad likely targets the second group.===
I buy this argument. Good point. I give the ad a B+ but still not an A. The message is essentially the same all campaign. If they want to scare someone into voting, they will (sadly) have to go more negative than this.
Heard of Chaos Theory/Butterfly Effect? We’ll see the consequences, if any, of spending $30 million in R primary to elevate the crazy come November 8th. Because it wasn’t just the crazy elevated at the top of the ticket.
Clearly, Trump and his minions are telling the “Big Lie” over and over again to cover their tracks. I expect that the Trumpters will engage in a host of dirty tricks to suppress the opposition vote to steal the 2022 election. The Trumpsters main problem is that they think voters are complete idiots and haven’t figured it all before voting.
I’m aware of how much Trump lost by but the number of votes Trump received in 2020 wasn’t too far short of of what Pritzker got in 2018. I just see the ad unintentionally firing up voters for Bailey. Let sleeping dogs lie.
==wasn’t too far short of of what Pritzker got in 2018==
Midterms vs. Presidential years are entirely different turnout universes. In fact, that Trump in a Presidential election got less votes than Pritzker in a midterm is a pretty good indicator of just how little love Trump has in IL.
I can imagine that there might be diminishing returns on running the Trump play on Bailey (Is Trump really at the top of anyone’s mind? It didn’t work in VA) but Pritzker has been running that play on Bailey all season and Bailey’s never had an answer for it. The fact that Pritzker sees no need to change his strategy now is indicative of something.
Huh? This news is from two months ago and at the debate, Bailey lied and tried to distance himself from Trump. Trump is toxic in most parts of IL so this is a great ad and well played. A-
==I give it a B/B+. It hits hard, but there’s no “Vote for me.” or “I endorse this message” coming from JB.==
I agree with Jocko. Always ask for the sale. This may sway some Independents or undecideds, but never take anything for granted. It needed JB’s face at the end.
- Mr. Potato Head - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 8:56 am:
He’s scared to death. It is hilarious to watch.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:01 am:
===scared===
Scared of what, exactly?
To the ad,
It’s an A
Good reminder that Bailey supports Trump, Trump is a danger to American Democracy, and voting for Bailey is welcoming Trump.
Good ad, sharply edited too
A
- Save Ferris - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:03 am:
Great ad.
If it was August.
- Too cute by half - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:05 am:
“Mr. Potato Head has not read the polls” is not a sentence I ever expected to type out yet here we are.
- Kayak - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:06 am:
It’s an A. TeamJB didn’t let up one day in 2018 and he’s not about to start now.
- Bruce( no not him) - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:06 am:
Didn’t he already run this same ad during the primary? s/
- Pundent - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:07 am:
It’s a good ad. I’d give it a B+. To the extent there are any undecided voters it reminds them of who both men are. Donald Trump has not fared well anytime he’s been on a ballot in Illinois. Darren is a disciple of Donald Trump. You don’t need to convey much more than that. At the end the reality of this election is no different than it was at the beginning.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:07 am:
===He’s scared to death.===
That’s very possible, considering some national trendlines.
But when Rod Blagojevich was way ahead of Judy Baar Topinka in 2006, he really poured it on at the end like nobody had ever seen before here.
Turns out, because he was in a three-person race and the Green Party candidate was keeping him under 50 percent, Blagojevich decided he wanted to reach that majority mark for perception and governing reasons (Madigan). He ended up missing it by just a hair, 49.79 percent. JBT got 39.26 percent, and Rich Whitney got 10.36 percent. https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx
The Libertarian this year has been polling fairly high.
Not saying this is the reason at all. Just saying that not everything is always what it may seem.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:11 am:
== Great ad.
If it was August.==
He basically did run this ad in August and has never really stopped.
- Amalia - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:13 am:
A says it all. and scares me so much.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:16 am:
===Not saying this is the reason at all.===
That’s the only reason I even called out the drive by.
If the reason is “always run like you’re 10 points behind”, yeah, that’s a “fear” or being “scared”
As only an observation, including the Chicago early voting, there seems to be more fatigue and not much surging, and if it’s on the Dem side, yeah that is a reason to be “scared” too.
The ad to itself? Folks voted already know why they are voting for whom, and the choice is made… done.
This is an ad, for me, to the straggler, the fatigued voter, the one not motivated… ginning up one more time Trump, who doesn’t poll well.
The other side, including or riffing off Rich’s story? I dunno anything about anything to the thinking internally to Pritzker hitting the gas, why, or motive. Still, it could be a real possibility as much as anything.
- Paddyrollingstone - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:17 am:
As a Dem, I’m glad he’s running scared. Everyone should, all the time. Whatever metaphor suits you - don’t take your foot of the gas; don’t celebrate until your on the bus ride home; beat the other guy like a rented mule - just win, baby. Just win.
Its a great Ad - in August or now. A
- Early voter - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:23 am:
This ad is giving Terry McAuliffe vibes for a governor who has been giving Andrew Cuomo (pre-controversy) vibes all election season.
Darkie Belly will be yesterday’s news you can lose in six days. JB needs to set his sights higher than defeating him.
- Give Me A Break - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:25 am:
Mr. Potato Head if you think this ad is going to bring votes to Bailey, you are beyond help.
- JS Mill - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:36 am:
The ad is a solid B+ maybe A-.
Best part about it uses bailey’s own words and he cannot dispute what he said.
Pritzker needs to ramp up the intensity in these last few days and run every single ad 24/7.
- Mr. Middle Ground - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:38 am:
Ad is a B. Message is clear. Trump remains particularly unpopular in the suburbs which is where the final days of the race will be spent.
I’m not convinced it moves many undecideds. Trump endorsed Bailey months ago. It was well covered then and advertised heavily since. It is just message reinforcement.
The Governor’s team is essentially saying: Food costs too much. Gas costs too much. Your kids learned less in the last two years than the generation did before them. But Trump supports this guy and your problems could be way worse.
- XonXoff - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:39 am:
I give it an A.
It’s a deserving reminder.
Now do “guns for everyone”, big time. And don’t forget the ghost guns vote, fundraiser gun raffles, void the FOID, and die on my porch clip.
We need this guy in charge like a 9mm hole in the head.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:43 am:
===I’m not convinced it moves many undecideds.===
It’s seemingly designed to gin up pluses to vote.
If Pritzker is up 7-10 points, it’s not about persuasion, it’s about voting the already converted.
- George Ryan Reynolds - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:44 am:
Gov not letting up. Also a natural response if gov campaign operation sensed even the slightest of tightening as Election Day approaches (or they’re trying to goose early voting to avoid day-of problems some may have).
- Arsenal - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:46 am:
== If the reason is “always run like you’re 10 points behind”, yeah, that’s a “fear” or being “scared”==
Two weeks ago the criticism was that Pritzker was not “running like he was 10 points behind”. Some people are just looking for reasons to guess he’s in trouble.
Meanwhile, his opponent struggled to even keep an ad on the air.
- Pundent - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:49 am:
=I’m not convinced it moves many undecideds.=
Undecideds can be measured in two ways. Those that haven’t made up their mind on who they’re voting for (likely few) and those that haven’t decided whether it’s worth voting at all. The ad likely targets the second group.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:51 am:
===those that haven’t decided whether it’s worth voting at all. The ad likely targets the second group.===
That’s some really good stuff there.
It’s why I gave it an A
Simplistic rationale to the converted to make sure they vote.
- need - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 9:53 am:
He spent $30 million in R primary so he could make this commercial.
- Mr. Middle Ground - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 10:02 am:
===those that haven’t decided whether it’s worth voting at all. The ad likely targets the second group.===
I buy this argument. Good point. I give the ad a B+ but still not an A. The message is essentially the same all campaign. If they want to scare someone into voting, they will (sadly) have to go more negative than this.
- JS Mill - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 10:05 am:
=He spent $30 million in R primary so he could make this commercial.=
No, he defined the likely opponent before the opponent had a chance to define himself.
The ILGOP faithful took care of the rest.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 10:09 am:
===He spent $30 million in R primary so he could make this commercial===
Are the 56+% Republican voters merely mindless drones?
They *wanted* Bailey. Wanted.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 10:09 am:
==Also a natural response if gov campaign operation sensed even the slightest of tightening as Election Day approaches==
Also a natural response if you have deep pockets and hungry media consultants.
Just sayin’, lol.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 10:10 am:
==I’m not convinced it moves many undecideds.==
I don’t think that’s who it’s designed for. I think it’s designed to make sure his base turns out.
- need - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 10:30 am:
Heard of Chaos Theory/Butterfly Effect? We’ll see the consequences, if any, of spending $30 million in R primary to elevate the crazy come November 8th. Because it wasn’t just the crazy elevated at the top of the ticket.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 10:47 am:
===Heard of Chaos Theory/Butterfly Effect?===
Kinda nonsensical in this context.
- Jocko - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 11:00 am:
I give it a B/B+. It hits hard, but there’s no “Vote for me.” or “I endorse this message” coming from JB.
- Jaguar - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 11:31 am:
Terrible ad.
“Donald Trump Wants You To Vote For Darren Bailey”
Don’t remind Trump voters to go out and vote for Darren Bailey. There were 2,446,891 votes for Trump in Illinois in 2020.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 11:35 am:
===Don’t remind Trump voters to go out and vote for Darren Bailey===
They did that in 2020 and it backfired badly on the constitutional amendment. Ad was something like Trump hates the Fair Tax Amendment or whatnot.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 11:36 am:
===Don’t remind Trump voters to go out and vote for Darren Bailey. There were 2,446,891 votes for Trump in Illinois in 2020.===
Trump LOST Illinois by 15+ points
Bailey already has the voters. It’s the midterms, they’re not the ones where motivation is a worry.
- Adele - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 11:44 am:
Clearly, Trump and his minions are telling the “Big Lie” over and over again to cover their tracks. I expect that the Trumpters will engage in a host of dirty tricks to suppress the opposition vote to steal the 2022 election. The Trumpsters main problem is that they think voters are complete idiots and haven’t figured it all before voting.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 11:48 am:
==There were 2,446,891 votes for Trump in Illinois in 2020.==
Now do the votes for Biden.
- Jaguar - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 11:50 am:
I’m aware of how much Trump lost by but the number of votes Trump received in 2020 wasn’t too far short of of what Pritzker got in 2018. I just see the ad unintentionally firing up voters for Bailey. Let sleeping dogs lie.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 12:11 pm:
==wasn’t too far short of of what Pritzker got in 2018==
Midterms vs. Presidential years are entirely different turnout universes. In fact, that Trump in a Presidential election got less votes than Pritzker in a midterm is a pretty good indicator of just how little love Trump has in IL.
I can imagine that there might be diminishing returns on running the Trump play on Bailey (Is Trump really at the top of anyone’s mind? It didn’t work in VA) but Pritzker has been running that play on Bailey all season and Bailey’s never had an answer for it. The fact that Pritzker sees no need to change his strategy now is indicative of something.
- Responsa - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 12:44 pm:
Honestly, I think JB could have used his closer money much more effectively than rehashing this very old news. Whatever. B-
- New Day - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 1:24 pm:
“than rehashing this very old news”
Huh? This news is from two months ago and at the debate, Bailey lied and tried to distance himself from Trump. Trump is toxic in most parts of IL so this is a great ad and well played. A-
- Streator Curmudgeon - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 1:28 pm:
==I give it a B/B+. It hits hard, but there’s no “Vote for me.” or “I endorse this message” coming from JB.==
I agree with Jocko. Always ask for the sale. This may sway some Independents or undecideds, but never take anything for granted. It needed JB’s face at the end.
- west wing - Thursday, Nov 3, 22 @ 5:14 pm:
Waiting for the campaign to swing 100 percent positive. That’s the touch needed at about now.