* Some pointy heads are gonna explode… again…
Governor JB Pritzker today celebrated S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade of Illinois bonds. This latest action means that Illinois has received a total of seven upgrades in less than two years under Governor Pritzker. This fiscal progress was achieved due to strong fiscal leadership by Gov. Pritzker and Democrats in the General Assembly.
S&P Global Ratings announced a ratings upgrade to A- for Illinois’ General Obligation bonds, its third upgrade of Illinois’ bonds since July 2021. The last time Illinois had an A- rating from S&P was before May of 2016. Fitch Ratings upgraded Illinois’ bonds by two notches last spring, the first Fitch upgrade for Illinois’ General Obligation bonds since June 2000. Illinois received two upgrades from Moody’s Investor Service in two separate actions in April 2022 and June 2021.
“I am thrilled to see our hard work at righting the past fiscal wrongs of our state reflected in today’s action by S&P with another credit rating upgrade—the third such upgrade in just two years,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “Our continued fiscal responsibility and smart budgeting will save Illinois taxpayers millions from adjusted interest rates, and my partners in the General Assembly and I look forward to building on that success.”
The upgrade follows unveiling of the Governor Pritzker’s proposed fiscal year 2024 budget which builds on four years of historic progress with balanced budgets, a Budget Stabilization Fund on track to hit $2.3 billion, elimination of the state’s bill backlog and reaching $1 trillion GDP. The proposed spending plan maintains the Governor’s commitment to fiscal responsibility while growing Illinois into an economic powerhouse and makes transformative, generational investments in early childhood education and efforts to fight poverty.
“The upgrade on the GO debt reflects our view that Illinois’ commitment and execution to strengthen its budgetary flexibility and stability, supported by accelerating repayment of its liabilities, rebuilding its Budget Stabilization Fund to decade highs; and a slowing of statutory pension funding growth, will likely continue during the outlook period,” S&P Global stated.
S&P last upgraded the state’s bonds in May 2022 and today’s analysis credited the state’s recent actions in paying longstanding debts, rapid and early repayment debts taken on during the pandemic-induced recession and transparent reporting both from the Comptroller and the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget.
S&P Global upgraded Illinois’ rating on its General Obligation bonds to A- (stable outlook) from BBB+ (stable outlook), and also upgraded Build Illinois sales tax bonds to A (stable outlook) from A- (stable outlook).
The rating of a state’s bonds is a measure of their credit quality. A higher bond rating generally means the state can borrow at a lower interest rate, saving taxpayers millions of dollars.
Between 2015 and 2017, the State of Illinois suffered eight credit rating downgrades and sat at the top of many analysts’ lists of the worst managed states in the nation. At its worst, Illinois’ bill backlog hit nearly $17 billion.
…Adding… The S&P report is here…
The GO rating on Illinois reflects our view of the state’s:
- Deep and diverse economic base;
- Adequate liquidity with access to currently untapped interfund borrowing options, and a growing budget stabilization fund (BSF);
- Expectation that open collective bargaining units will be settled in a timely manner; and
- Transparent reporting both from the comptroller and the governor’s office of management and budget that we expect will be sustained or improve.
Offsetting factors, in our opinion, include:
- High pension and other postemployment benefit (OPEB) liabilities and a pension funding practice where the statutory pension funding is designed to attain a 90% funded status in 2045, which is just part of one of the least conservative funding methodologies in the nation among peers;
- Trend of annual financial audits being released later than in most other states; and
- Population declines that are forecast to continue, and if this accelerates could potentially challenge economic growth.
The stable outlook reflects our view that Illinois’ near-term credit profile has stabilized, given improved liquidity, an economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-driven recession, and historic levels of direct federal support.
We could lower the rating if a structural deficit were to increase, derived from economic uncertainties; or if increases in pension, OPEB, or other fixed-cost obligations exceed expectations.
If the state continues to improve pension, OPEB, and BSF funding levels, while shrinking the structural deficit that we believe was created by not funding to an actuarially determined contribution level without experiencing meaningful deterioration in other credit factors, we could raise the rating. Although not required for us to consider an upgrade, a return to a more abbreviated audit-release period would be in line with that of higher-rated peers.
…Adding… The governor announced the upgrade during a speech today. Click here for the video.
…Adding… Speaker Welch…
“Less than two years ago we celebrated Illinois’ first credit rating increase in decades. Today, we celebrate our seventh, and a return to A-level credit. This is further affirmation that Democrats are making fiscally responsible decisions that move our state forward. I’m proud of what we’ve accomplished together, and I look forward to continued progress and success for the people of Illinois.”
…Adding… History time with Hannah…
…Adding… Sen. Elgie Sims, the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and Majority Caucus Appropriations Leader…
“Today’s news is yet another sign the years of fiscal responsibility from the General Assembly is paying off. In recent years, we have been able put money back in the pockets of the state’s hardworking families and provide funding for the people who need the most help – all while paying down our bill backlog. Illinois is a standout state when it comes to putting the needs of our residents first, and we do so in a responsible and equitable way.
“S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade of Illinois bonds shows our fiscally responsible budgeting approach is working and is independent proof that our state is headed in the right direction. Our future looks bright and I look forward to continued collaborative efforts during this year’s budget negotiation process to keep the state on this upward economic trajectory.”
- Nick - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:17 pm:
Good news is in fact good news
- Tood Aloo - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:20 pm:
Great news. Has anybody asked for comments from leaders Curran and McCombie?
- Google Is Your Friend - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:22 pm:
Another devastating hit to right-wing and Republican talking points. Pour one out for them, they need it.
- H-W - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:26 pm:
== S&P Global Ratings announced a ratings upgrade to A- for Illinois ==
Fantastic news. As quickly as the budget impasse failed us, good fiscal responsibility is lifting us up now.
- Blake - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:36 pm:
Are we still the state with the lowest credit rating? If so, how much further until we are off bottom?
IIRC, there are 15 states with AA or AAA ratings. Can Pritzker make a projection on whether we will get to AA or AAA while he is in office?
- Norseman - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:47 pm:
Great news. Now the counter-narrative from the spelunkers of misery in 3 … 2 … 1 …
- Baloneymous - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:47 pm:
This is great news. Hopefully the days of ratings downgrades and a Governor spewing vitriol on the state every chance he got are over.
- TinMan - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:49 pm:
Good news, means we will be paying less for the bond debt we issue .
- Jibba - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:54 pm:
===Can Pritzker make a projection===
I’m sorry you can’t criticize JB today. Feel free to quit laying traps for future criticism.
- JoanP - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 1:58 pm:
“Minus? What do you mean, you got an A-minus? Young man, you are grounded until you get an A-Plus.”
/snark/
- Techie - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 2:04 pm:
I’m waiting for right-wingers to congratulate the governor and general assembly on their sound fiscal stewardship, but that might require them to actually care about fiscal conservatism and not merely the right-wing soup of the day.
- TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 2:04 pm:
>means we will be paying less for the bond debt we issue .
Not quite.
You may have noticed interest rates have moved significantly upward in the past year.
Ratings give a discount or premium to that base rate.
The current base rate without even taking ratings into account, is higher than what Illinois was paying at its worst rating with the ratings premium added on top of the record low base rate.
Base rate changes can be far more important than ratings. Which is why when Illinois had the lowest rating in its history, it wasn’t paying a very high real interest rate because the base rate was at record lows to begin with.
The problem was so much of the generic media focused on ‘near-junk-status’. Nobody outside maybe Yvette Shields was looking at and understanding the larger picture.
- In_The_Middle - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 2:07 pm:
I wonder of the New Illinois folks will include this upgrade in their propaganda?
- Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 2:16 pm:
==Are we still the state with the lowest credit rating?==
We are now tied with NJ.
- JS Mill - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 2:28 pm:
Wait a minute…Bailey said JB is “destroying” Illinois.
Now we know why the gop has gone all in on culture wars since they cannot compete with the economic prowess of JB.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 2:46 pm:
First… very first.
It’s great news. Good on the governor, the GA, everyone.
That’s first.
Here’s the utter phony of credit ratings…
=== “The upgrade on the GO debt reflects our view that Illinois’ commitment and execution to strengthen its budgetary flexibility and stability, supported by accelerating repayment of its liabilities, rebuilding its Budget Stabilization Fund to decade highs; and a slowing of statutory pension funding growth, will likely continue during the outlook period,” S&P Global stated.===
And?
=== If the state continues to improve pension, OPEB, and BSF funding levels, while shrinking the structural deficit that we believe was created by not funding to an actuarially determined contribution level without experiencing meaningful deterioration in other credit factors, we could raise the rating. Although not required for us to consider an upgrade, a return to a more abbreviated audit-release period would be in line with that of higher-rated peers.===
K? Sorry for all that, but “we good”
Not one of those “important” analyses is the legal obligation of this state to debt, the constitution, or how Illinois as a state sees debt… but “outlooks and analysis” based on opinions and thoughts.
Utter baloney, made up criteria, not balanced with actual legal obligation.
It’s a racket. A racket based on an idea of ignoring truth to the state and debt and what *they* want seen in “outlook, forecast, and belief”
Good on all, the imagined criteria was met. That part isn’t snark.
- levivotedforjudy - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 3:01 pm:
3-2-1..”But Madigan”!
- Stormsw7706 - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 3:05 pm:
Good news indeed. It amazing what a difference a little honest and responsible budgeting can make
- New Day - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 3:58 pm:
“Can Pritzker make a projection on whether we will get to AA or AAA while he is in office?”
Moving the goal posts 101…
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 4:13 pm:
In an alternate universe, if some ILGOPs actually voted for any of Gov. Pritzker’s budgets, they could share in the victory of news like this. They could credibly claim their relentless focus on fiscal responsibility forced the Democrats to pay down the debt before creating new spending programs.
But we don’t live in an alternate universe.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 4:16 pm:
== Can Pritzker make a projection on whether we will get to AA or AAA while he is in office?==
One thing Raunder’s folks kinda had a point about is that it kinda sucks to live at the whim of credit rating agencies. There’s not a whole lot of objective benchmarks you can point to. It’ll happen only when and if the credit rating agencies feel like it.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 4:17 pm:
A big dig is thrown at the former governor and his anti-union supporters, that timely settling of union contracts is a positive credit feature. They wouldn’t settle with state workers for four years and the state wound up paying for illegally withheld pay, with interest.
- Lincoln Lad - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 5:28 pm:
Knew Rauner would fix the State’s finances, just surprised it has taken this long. Now I bet JB will take credit for it. Got to get back to Fox News…
- Candy Dogood - Thursday, Feb 23, 23 @ 9:54 pm:
===It’s a racket. A racket based on an idea of ignoring truth to the state and debt and what *they* want seen in “outlook, forecast, and belief”===
I absolutely agree. That chart should have another line to demonstrate that over the period those rates dropped that there was absolutely zero change in the real risk of buying a the state’s general obligations bonds, meanwhile these rating agencies were giving A ratings to private companies with an alarmingly high default rate.
To some extent we have allowed ourselves to be victimized by a bond issuing process where we sold bonds at rates higher than we needed to and our issues were either over subscribed or quickly purchased because it was a great deal for the investors and a rip off for the taxpayers.