* One year ago in the Sun-Times…

The Chicago police closed exactly 400 murder cases in 2021, well above the average solved during each of the last several years. That’s nearly 50 more cases closed than in 2020 and well above the average of 250 in each of the five previous years.

Based on the department’s official total of 797 murders in 2021, that amounted to a “clearance rate” of better than 50% last year.

But that doesn’t mean many more people are being brought to justice, a Chicago Sun-Times analysis finds.

Half of those cases — 199 — were closed “exceptionally,” meaning no one was charged. Under departmental policy, detectives are allowed to clear a case when the suspect is dead, prosecutors refuse to make a charge or police believe they know who did it but don’t make an arrest.

What’s more, one of every seven cases taken off CPD’s books last year was actually committed more than 10 years ago, including one that happened a half-century ago, which CPD attributed to providing extra resources to the department’s Cold Case team. Since those cases were officially cleared in 2021, they are counted against the 797 murder total, further improving last year’s clearance rate even though they happened years before.

* Last fall on WGN…

CPD records obtained and reviewed by WGN Investigates show that, between 2013 and 2021, CPD detectives cleared 2,068 murder cases. Of those, nearly 10% — 202 cases — were cleared via “death of offender.” In that span of time, Chicago recorded more than 5,400 murders.

What’s more: almost a quarter of all “death of offender” clearances in that time period — 49 — were recorded in 2021. Thirty-seven of those 49 “death of offender” clearances were in murder cases that originated before 2021, WGN Investigates found. Between 2013 and 2019, CPD detectives recorded no more than 25 “death of offender” clearances in a given year.

* Also from WGN…

There are three categories by which a murder case can be cleared:

• A suspect is charged in the killing. The murder will remain “cleared” regardless of how the suspect’s criminal case is adjudicated
• Police present evidence to prosecutors who then decline to bring charges, a “bar to prosecute” clearance
• Police determine that the suspect in a killing has died, a clearance known as “death of offender”

* And, as far as I can tell, nobody has yet answered this question posed by the Sun-Times editorial board last year…

Some of the difference can be laid at the door of Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx’s office, which, as Grimm found, has refused to bring charges in what is likely a record number of murder cases brought to the office by police. […]

A spokesperson for Foxx cites state laws that raised the bar for evidence in murder cases as the reason why prosecutors last year turned down the most cases ever in Foxx’s six-year tenure. Which begs the question: Is the same happening in other state’s attorney’s offices across Illinois?

* OK, let’s move along to this recent Tribune report…

Of the 2,956 homicides that were cleared between 2012 and 2022, about two-thirds — 1,854 — resulted in criminal charges being filed. In a quarter of those clearances, prosecutors declined to bring charges after reviewing evidence from detectives. The rest of the clearances — 372 killings — were blamed on suspects who were dead, police data show.

Also from that Tribune story…

Via the Freedom of Information Act, the Tribune has obtained a list of every homicide case that was “cleared” by CPD detectives between Jan. 1, 2012, and Dec. 31, 2022. Over those 11 years — a period that spans two mayors, two state’s attorneys and three police superintendents — Chicago recorded 6,718 homicides, according to the city’s public data portal. In that same time, CPD detectives cleared 2,956 killings.

CPD’s clearance rate in that time frame, the number of cases solved divided by the number of cases initiated, was 44%.

Police in New York City say their homicide clearance rate was 78% last year, when 433 killings were recorded in the country’s largest city, according to The New York Times.

Meanwhile, 382 homicides occurred in Los Angeles in 2022, when the LAPD reported a clearance rate of 76%.

“When looking at the city’s 22 police districts, the data show that detectives solved homicide cases in white neighborhoods at a far greater rate than Black neighborhoods in 2022″…

Click the pic and scroll down for an interactive map.

       

29 Comments - Homebody - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 9:36 am: Clearance rates by neighborhood are the most damning, imho, but we need to examine why. Pretend you’re a five year old, and every time you get an answer, ask “why?” again. Why are clearance rates worse in those neighborhoods? Is it lack of police resources in those area? Is it lack of cameras/other sorts of evidence? Is it lack of witness cooperation?Whichever the answer, then ask why again. Too many times people will jump to their preferred conclusion without actually going through the steps to investigate causes. - Roadrager - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 9:39 am: Oh look, there’s the one map of Chicago again. - Leslie K - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 9:41 am: ===CPD’s clearance rate in that time frame, the number of cases solved divided by the number of cases initiated, was 44%.=== How the clearance rate is actually determined: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/clearances - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 9:42 am: Have they even watched The Wire? - Jerry - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 9:48 am: Jim Rockford just looked under the doormat to find the key. - Investigator X - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 9:49 am: I’ve worked homicides for over 19 years. Some victims and witness cooperate. Some don’t. White victim homicides on the north side are not usually of the gang variety. It’s a huge difference in the investigations say between a DV homicide or road rage, than a gang shooting. Gang shootings don’t occur in sauganash edgebrook wildwood. it’s very difficult to get cooperation in gang infused neighborhoods. These articles never get into the reason. Just the “it must be lousy/racist police” inference. The crim profiles between neighborhoods is very very stark. Gang witnesses are scared in ways totally different than victims in non gang cases. You cannot stop carnage unto gangs are stopped. That’s where money should go. I’ve seen few members go straight. Some do for sure. Lots working the streets as interrupters. It’s not lazy racist police to which the Trib and Times frequently allude. - TheInvisibleMan - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 9:54 am: –that amounted to a “clearance rate” of better than 50% last year– There are also issues with using statistics like this to claim re-offenses are a specific percentage for offenders. re-offender stats aren’t actually re-offender stats. They are stats of how many people get *caught* re-offending. - Roadrager - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:17 am: This is not the fault of the present-day CPD, but I was thinking about the vicious cycle of neighborhood distrust in police -> fewer crimes solved -> further distrust in police, and how that only gets ramped up when an officer is killed and suddenly CPD can round up a whole band of suspects within two days. It gives fuel to the idea that some crime victims in the city get the actual police attention, even though, what is CPD supposed to do, solve the crimes it can solve slower? It’s a bad situation with roots decades deep and no easy solution. - Tinman - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:17 am: Investigator X hits the nail on the head. But the media likes easy answers . First and foremost witnesses in those neighborhoods are scared to come forward. You don’t get cooperation. They are afraid for their families if it is out that they cooperated . Getting those who cooperate a safe haven is important, but that takes money . Simplified articles that don’t give context do no one justice. - supplied_demand - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:21 am: I’d love to see the clearance rates when a cop is the victim. It seems like those cases always lead to swift arrests. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:30 am: “Jim Rockford” Man, that was a great show. - Stuck in Celliniland - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:34 am: ==“Jim Rockford” Man, that was a great show.== As a kid, I actually thought the show was set in Rockford. Only to be disappointed that it took place in LA–and similarly disappointed that “Mr. Belvidere” took place near Pittsburgh and not next door in Belvidere, IL. - Keyrock - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:40 am: Investigator X describes a significant cause of the lower clearance rate. But the investigator fails to mention the mistrust of the police in minority neighborhoods, due to the decades of differential treatment and the history of abusive practices. Fear of gang retaliation is a large part of the problem, but it’s not the only cause of the difference in clearance rates. - Google Is Your Friend - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:40 am: It’s about Los Angeles, but the issues are the same, so I would encourage everyone commenting to read Jill Leovy’s Ghettoside. There’s also the 2019 Police Executive Research Forum report on CPD’s murder investigations, which is quite damning, to say the least. https://home.chicagopolice.org/homicideclearancereport2019/ - Jocko - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:49 am: I get what Investigator X is saying, but…judging by the number of squad cars that passed Lenora Davis on the night of April 15th…have to question the FOPs level of concern/involvement in the community. - Amalia - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 10:53 am: re Cook County vs. other county prosecutors…Cook County has felony review, that is, they say whether there is a felony or not. Cops can make an override on a murder but that usually means the SAO looks askance at it. - levivotedforjudy - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 11:02 am: This is really thought provoking information. I wonder what the differences are in the Foxx vs. Alvarez level of proof. How much higher is the Foxx standard? This also brings in the school of thought that the probability of getting shot is within a known circle of probability. I remember Eddie Johnson bringing this up a lot in interviews. They even did interventions with people who were at high risk. As a closer, I was raised in the Metro-East, but the “no snitching” tenets in some neighborhoods in Chicago have just baffled me. Granted we need a lot more detectives, but that attitude just has to cripple their ability to solve a lot of cases. Interesting and sad revelations. - Gfalkes - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 11:02 am: Two data points I’d love to see researched. The effect of community engagement on clearance rates. In some communities the “snitches get stitches” as a bromide is a real thing. The other is the cumulative effect of criminal justice reforms on clearance rates. - Give Us Barabbas - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 11:10 am: The inference I’m getting from reading this is, some of the open cases are disposed of by pinning it on people who are already dead, but I have to wonder how tight those cases really were, or if it’s “the dog ate my homework” time. - Stephanie Kollmann - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 11:31 am: Seconding the recommendation to read the PERF report. CPD detectives are uniquely mismanaged and approach investigations largely ad hoc. - Anonymous - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 11:39 am: Well done. Stunningly low clearance rate. How many of the people not found went on to commit further crimes. This would get any other person fired. Johnson needs to demand better from these detectives. His plan to add detectives certainly seems like a good idea. Wonder why crime rates at so high? Look at these figures - ArchPundit - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 11:58 am: == Jill Leovy’s Ghettoside. I’d recommend it, Homicide by David Simon which is from the late 80s/early 90s and the changes between them are well covered in the fictional Wire. The drug war ruined many things including the focus of police (not a criticism of the police officers as much as a system that focused on all the wrong things). - Betty Draper’s cigarette - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 12:17 pm: === It’s not lazy racist police to which the Trib and Times frequently allude.=== Who said it was? ===First and foremost witnesses in those neighborhoods are scared to come forward. You don’t get cooperation. They are afraid for their families if it is out that they cooperated.=== Illinois has a witness protection program. Maybe people should be made aware of it. - Excitable Boy - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 12:18 pm: - Gang witnesses are scared in ways totally different than victims in non gang cases. - Sure they are, and historically CPD has done a lousy job protecting them. You’ll never get rid of gangs without buy in from the community, and you aren’t getting that by harassing everyone with traffic stops and putting peoples lives at risk if they cooperate. - don the legend - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 12:23 pm: ==As a kid, I actually thought the show was set in Rockford. Only to be disappointed that it took place in LA== The palm trees didn’t give you a clue? - Original Rambler - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 12:58 pm: Thank you Investigator X for your contribution. Makes sense to me. May not be the whole story but likely plays a large part. I always wonder if today’s beat cops understand the damage Burge and his ilk have done to the CPD and how they have made police work today that much more dangerous and difficult. And Catanzara’s public posturing is not helping them. - Arsenal - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 1:02 pm: ==These articles never get into the reason.== And, notably, neither have you. ==They are afraid for their families if it is out that they cooperated== Why do these people think the police can’t protect them? - Just a guy - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 4:51 pm: - Arsenal - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 1:02 pm: ==These articles never get into the reason.== And, notably, neither have you. ==They are afraid for their families if it is out that they cooperated== Why do these people think the police can’t protect them? Because at some point the police have to leave their block to go somewhere else to help someone or deal with another crime. The gangs that are infused in the neighborhoods (estimates have the number of gang members in Chicago approach 120K) don’t. - Excitable Boy - Tuesday, May 16, 23 @ 8:49 pm: - at some point the police have to leave their block to go somewhere else - Other cities have far less officers per capita, and far better outcomes. These same old excuses are pathetic. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.