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Fun with numbers
Wednesday, May 24, 2023 - Posted by Rich Miller * Center Square…
After factoring in inflation, the FY24 budget will wind up being about 6 percent higher than it was in FY14. * Today’s Tribune editorial features a cartoon from 2011 about the state’s pension horrors. Since then, the Tier 2 program has kicked in and annual state payments have stabilized. The General Assembly and the current governor have also boosted pension fund contributions above the minimum required by law. But the editorial skips over all that…
Um, the state’s credit ratings have steadily improved since that paper’s endorsed (through thick and thin) governor was overwhelmingly voted out of office in 2018. And as far as outlooks go, two rating agencies say Illinois has a “stable” outlook, and one (Fitch) has given the state a “positive” outlook. The outlook of an editorial board perpetually stuck in the past doesn’t really mean much. * Nadig Newspapers…
Sen. CPZ was in Springfield voting last week and will be here this week. Plenty of people have outside jobs, including Rep. Andrade. CPZ may be the first, however, to refuse the entire salary of a non-legislative job while still managing to stay on top of her legislative gig. Also, if you click here and then click “Inquiry Reports,” load the CSV file into Excel and create a Pivot Table, you’ll see that Rep. Stephens has been recorded as either “Excused” or “Not Voting” on 18 percent of roll call votes this year (157 of 863), while Sen. Pacione-Zayas has been recorded as not voting on 6 percent (52 of 848).
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- Garfield Ridge Guy - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:17 am:
==After factoring in inflation, the FY24 budget will wind up being about 6 percent higher than it was in FY14.==
I agree that Center Square is being disingenuous, but so is this statement (though, less so). Many of the line items in the budget won’t be affected by inflation. Pensions didn’t all go up by the inflation rate, nor did fixed costs (things like rent), nor did salaries. There’s no doubt that some of the difference can be explained by inflation, but meaningful parts cannot.
- Big Dipper - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:20 am:
Can someone please explain to the Trib Ed Board that even if there were this goofy constitutional amendment that they shill for constantly it could not be apply retroactively? It could apply only to new hires and Tier 2 already has screwed them. And even if it were successful, do they really want Tier One retirees to live in poverty 20 to 30 years after retirement when their increases do not keep up with inflation?
- Frida’s boss - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:21 am:
Not sure the media would care if Andrade took another job and wasn’t getting paid for it? Maybe he’s just thinking about the local neighborhood DSA type groups who don’t like him being part of the old machine and are pushing to get him out. Similar to how they have their sights on CPZ’s predecessor Iris Martinez for not falling in line with their dystopian fantasies.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:28 am:
===There’s no doubt that some of the difference can be explained by inflation, but meaningful parts cannot.===
You’re making a connection that wasn’t actually made in the post. I was just pointing out the real dollar impact.
- Garfield Ridge Guy - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:30 am:
==I was just pointing out the real dollar impact.==
This is a fair rejoinder; thanks for clarifying.
- Michelle Flaherty - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:39 am:
For more than a decade now the Trib edit board has demanded the state address the pension debt — which requires paying more into it — and then when the state does, they criticize the state for increased spending.
The result has been improved credit ratings for Illinois and entirely new edit board leadership at the Tribune.
Let’s hope the trend continues.
- Jocko - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:44 am:
==this goofy constitutional amendment==
If ’structural reforms’ was a drinking game, the ILGOP would be at Betty Ford.
- City Zen - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:45 am:
== It could apply only to new hires and Tier 2 already has screwed them==
Tier 2 can be enhanced at any time. Next year, next decade, doesn’t matter. Once the majority of participants are Tier 2, the pressure will be on to get it as close to Tier 1 as possible.
Tier 1 was already somewhat generous yet was enhanced dozens of times over the years. Why people continue to believe Tier 2 will remain as-is despite decades of history proving otherwise…
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 10:52 am:
===Once the majority of participants are Tier 2, the pressure will be on to get it as close to Tier 1 as possible.===
Perhaps, but it still has to survive 60-30-1.
- regular democrat - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 11:04 am:
Last couple weeks you have been including Russ Stewart in your threads and I think that cool. He a little quirky but he has his ear to the ground and has a few good sources. I look forward to his columns every week even though some don’t. Anyway Johnny D’Amico was able to be a legislator and hold down a management job in the water dept for many years.
- Soccermom - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 11:06 am:
When you think of the budget in terms of taxpayer dollars, inflation is a real and important factor — doesn’t matter if the budget items are affected by inflation rate. (And incidentally — IIRC, medical costs increases have been outpacing the inflation rate.)
- P. - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 11:29 am:
Can we talk about $265,000 to run Rosemont (1,500 fewer residents than fictional Mayberry)? What a racket.
- cover - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 11:32 am:
= Rep. Brad Stephens (R-20) to be the $265,000 mayor of Rosemont =
That’s more than the Governor’s salary, for running a town of 4,000.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 11:35 am:
===That’s more than the Governor’s salary===
Show me a town of 4,000 that’s an actual business, entertainment, and convention showplace.
The pay is likely more reflective of what the town does than what it is.
- Retired SUR Employee - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 11:49 am:
With respect to public pensions, note that today the Illinois Supreme Court granted the Petition for Leave to Appeal in the pension consolidation case (Arlington Heights Police Pension Fund, et al. v. Jay Robert “JB” Pritzker, et al). I’ve got to admit that’s surprise!
- cover - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 11:53 am:
= Show me a town of 4,000 that’s an actual business, entertainment, and convention showplace. =
Imagine if that area had actually been incorporated into the City of Chicago like O’Hare itself.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 11:57 am:
===Imagine if===
It wasn’t.
The story of the town is wow, the vision of it, to today… you could argue all involved are underpaid as custodians of the town
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 12:00 pm:
OK, let’s stipulate that Rosemont is a jewel. Now, move along.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 12:24 pm:
==Sen. Pacione-Zayas has been recorded as not voting on 6 percent (52 of 848).==
Rep. Andrade has a similar record: recorded as NV or excused on 5.79% (50 of 863).
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 12:24 pm:
Anon @ 12:24 was me.
- wait just a minute - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 12:37 pm:
I mean the issue is Sen. Pacione-Zayas’ voting percentage going forward. It’s not particularly surprising she was in town before Johnson’s first City Council meeting.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 12:38 pm:
=Tier 2 can be enhanced at any time. Next year, next decade, doesn’t matter.=
So the infinite possibilities of “what if” game? That is fun. Lets change the AAI to be reflective of CPI in years when it is over 5% but not below 3%. I like that.
=Tier 1 was already somewhat generous=
In comparison to what? A Comed execs bailout? Hardly.
Tier 1 is modest.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 12:50 pm:
===voting percentage going forward===
After this week, the GA will likely be gone until October. And they’ll only be back for a total of 6 days in two months.
And she’s here this week.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 12:53 pm:
===Tier 1 is modest===
Depends on which fund we’re talking about. But the issue has always been the state’s refusal over nearly 100 years to raise the revenue to pay for pensions along with providing the services that people want from government. The Trib has never been friendly to tax hikes, and jealously guards its tax breaks.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 1:41 pm:
==Why people continue to believe Tier 2 will remain as-is despite decades of history proving otherwise…==
Because outside of Sue Scherer’s district, voters have no interest in being more generous- or even baseline fair- to state workers. AFSCME might push for it, and that’s not nothin’, but it’ll be a long and bloody war, just like it was for them to defuse all the “cut pensions” talk.
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 1:56 pm:
==Why people continue to believe Tier 2 will remain as-is despite decades of history proving otherwise…==
A better argument would be the budget impact of losing the Social Security safe harbor. Imagine the budget impact when Special Security starts billing for employer and employee contributions for Tier 2 folks. If Tier 2 is not improved, there will be a much bigger bill and the feds won’t take an IOU.
- City Zen - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 2:43 pm:
==If Tier 2 is not improved, there will be a much bigger bill and the feds won’t take an IOU.==
And yet every funding scenario and actuarial calculation are based on the assumption Tier 2 will not be improved. Seems a bit short-sighted if you ask me.
Take all pension payment schedules and re-amortization plans with a grain of salt. It all means very little unless benefits are locked in, and they most certainly are not.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 3:17 pm:
The better story in Van Pelt collecting a salary and not showing up the entire session.
- supplied_demand - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 3:32 pm:
==There’s no doubt that some of the difference can be explained by inflation, but meaningful parts cannot. ==
Don’t forget the increased pension spending (Edgar Ramp), paying down additional pension debt, and payments to the rainy day fund. Take those out and show me the growth rate.
- Southern Belle - Wednesday, May 24, 23 @ 4:46 pm:
Instead of beating up those who have a second job, but are at least coming to work in the legislature, we should be asking when Van Pelt will start coming to work or give up her seat. I do not believe she has attended even one day of session. Legal -maybe, ethical- no way!