* Background is here if you need it. Press release from yesterday…
Today, Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi continued his efforts to correct the Census Bureau’s undercounting of Illinois in the 2020 Census and its resulting loss in its fair share of federal funding by urging the Department of Commerce’s Office of the Inspector General (COIG) to address ways to improve the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program (PEP) as part of its ongoing audit of the Census Bureau’s Post-Enumeration Survey (PES).
The PES is a tool used to evaluate the accuracy of the decennial census and the PES of the 2020 Decennial Census found 14 states had been undercounted or overcounted, including Illinois which was undercounted by an estimated 1.97 percent.
Congressman Krishnamoorthi’s new letter requests that, as the COIG audits the 2020 PES, that it also addresses how PES findings can be used to improve the PEP’s annual population and resulting federal aid allocations as a means to ensuring Illinois receives its fair share of funding from Washington.
* The letter…
Assistant Inspector General Scott,
I am writing regarding your June 14, 2023 announcement that you had initiated an audit of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) to assess the validity of the 2020 PES results as they relate to overcounts and undercounts. Those results included the estimate that 14 states had an undercount or overcount, including my home state of Illinois, which was undercounted by an estimated 1.97 percent.[1]
As part of your audit of the PES’s validity, I urge you and your office to specifically address not only the quality of the PES, but also the applicability and transferability of those results and any methodological findings to immediately improve the accuracy of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program (PEP) and the resulting federal funding allocations, in addition to improving the 2030 Decennial Census.
As you know, Census Bureau data determines the allocation of $1.5 trillion of federal funding over the course of a decade, and Illinoisans rely on roughly 100 programs, such as health care and education programs, for which federal funding levels are determined by such allocations. Because of this funding structure, the undercount and flawed projections are not simply questions of statistical theory and data practices, but of the health and wellbeing of millions of people.
Given the high stakes inherent in Census-based funding allocations and thus the accuracy of the Decennial Census, the PEP, and other Census Bureau programs that rely on it, I sincerely ask that your audit of the PES addresses not only the validity of the PES, but also how it can be most quickly and effectively used to improve other Census Bureau data.
Sincerely,
Raja Krishnamoorthi
Member of Congress
- Sue - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 11:01 am:
Rather than lamenting over the census- better to hammer at our pols to focus on pro growth policies. There is a reason people are leaving. Good policy decisions are more important then last years census
- Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 11:06 am:
- There is a reason people are leaving. Good policy decisions are more important then last years census -
As usual you’re wrong, Sue. The point is that if the previous botched census and subsequent correction is any guide, people aren’t leaving. And good policy decisions at the federal level, that involve millions of those tax dollars that leave Illinois every year and go to poorer states, depend on an accurate census. So thanks Rep. Krishnamoorthi for pushing back on this.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 11:08 am:
===Rather than lamenting over the census- better to hammer at our pols to focus on pro growth policies.===
“Ignore that the number of people leaving isn’t part of my narrative, I need unpopular policies to pass”
- “Sue”, probably.
It is fun that you want ignored the miscalculations but never miss the opportunity to push policy this state won’t pass because 60/71 and 30/36 doesn’t exist, let alone a governor bent on ruining the state to try to force it.
It was like - Sue - went full “The Onion”
- Frida's boss - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 11:20 am:
“Pro-growth policies” what exactly are those policies? This issue has nothing to do with “politics” it’s about accounting errors.
The census had a 1.97% undercount. That’s almost a 1/4 million people. Mississippi had an undercount of 4.1% Arkansas 5% and Texas 1.92%.
These are real dollars for our residents that the Feds are not sending to our state and others. In the inverse there are states that had overcounts and are receiving more funds, our funds.
If he can find a way to account for lost dollars and recoup those funds, good for him and us. The entire delegation should get behind him on this.
- Flyin'Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 11:30 am:
Sue, you, LP, Louis Astaves really need to play the B side.
It’s tired, pathetic to be sure, but mostly tired.
- H-W - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 11:34 am:
Is there a listing of the overcounted states? I understand undercounting and its relevance to Illinois. But overcounting is an interesting concept as well. What assumptions (and attributes) lead to overcounting a population?
- Perrid - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 11:50 am:
Sue, the argument is that people may not be leaving.
Furthermore, if people aren’t leaving because of Democrats’ “not business friendly” enviornment, I think we have to question whether the inverse is true, if people would come if we adopted Republican “business friendly” ideals.
I wouldn’t hold my breath, personally.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 11:55 am:
===both Republicans and Democrats===
That’s seemingly untrue to efforts by Dems…
- levivotedforjudy - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 12:02 pm:
I remember the gloating when the population numbers were wrong and the incredible silence when they were adjusted. I’ll bet the members of the Chicago Hispanic aldermanic caucus remember it too for a different reason. This needs to be fixed. Thanks Raja!
- Frida's boss - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 12:07 pm:
@H-W Is there a listing of the overcounted states?
Google is your friend
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 12:12 pm:
@Sue- The Illinois GDP called and said it disagrees with you. Bigly.
- Frida's boss - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 12:14 pm:
@Sammy-a concerted effort by both Republicans and Democrats to minimize participation by immigrant communities.
Where did you see that happen? Dems had census registrars that spoke every language. They promoted the census in multiple languages. They were on the ground in high population immigrant communities,
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 12:27 pm:
===the argument is that people may not be leaving===
People are leaving. The question is how many.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 2:06 pm:
First, good on the Rep. for fighting to correct this problem. Inaccurate counting has serious consequences.
Second, Democratic policies are quite good for economic growth. Jobs numbers under Obama and Biden blow away all Republican presidents. Cook County and most of its collars are the only contiguous region to lead the country in corporate relocations. Illinois doom hustlers are deliberately lying about growth, just like population.
- ste_with a v_en - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 3:23 pm:
The best way to avoid this problem in the future to to get as many people to take the Census in 2030.
- anonymous john doe - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 3:35 pm:
The disorganization at that office was unreal. They were unable to keep track of who they had paid in a given pay period for one example. Wasn’t surprised by this headline at all and the Congressman should be applauded and should keep pushing this.
- Nick - Wednesday, Jul 12, 23 @ 4:09 pm:
All else aside I love Krishnamoorthi’s leadership on this. Sometimes it feels like he’s the only one fighting back against the bogus “people fleeing the state” narrative.