The last time a sitting Illinois Republican congressperson faced a real primary challenge from a non-incumbent was more than seven years ago, when then-state Sen. Kyle McCarter, R-Lebanon, challenged U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, R-Collinsville. Even so, nobody really thought McCarter had much of a chance, and, as expected, he ended up losing to Shimkus by more than 20 points.
We’ve seen reapportionment-related GOP primaries between congressional incumbents — the most recent being U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis’ 2022 crushing loss to fellow U.S. Rep. Mary Miller (no relation) — but serious challenges of sitting Republican U.S. representatives are otherwise fairly rare here.
Mike Bost is now finding himself in that fairly rare territory. The four-term congressman from southern Illinois gained national renown after throwing a paper copy of an Illinois House bill into the air during an angry floor tirade against reducing public employee pensions.
Bost is now up against former state legislator Darren Bailey, who two-upped Bost by posting an online video of himself shooting a paper copy of a state budget bill with a high-powered assault rifle and then posted another video of him taking a flame-thrower to a budget bill.
Bailey is Bost-plus. He is Guns N’ Roses to Bost’s Bon Jovi. The crewcut candidate pledged undying fealty to Donald Trump on a hot, sweaty public stage when the then-president publicly endorsed him for governor last year.
He’ll run as an outsider against a career politician who has held public office for 28 years. And, just last year, well over $200 million was spent for and against Bailey in the governor’s race, some of it by the same person (Gov. J.B. Pritzker). That adds up to a whole lot of name recognition for Bailey as he enters this contest.
But Bailey is also a not great fundraiser. Bost recently claimed to have $1 million in campaign cash on hand. Bailey only raised a couple of million dollars for the 2022 general election (much of it in large contributions from his family) outside of the money he got from billionaire Richard Uihlein, who chose to spend most of his pro-Bailey money via a Dan Proft independent expenditure committee.
There were no state contribution caps in that 2022 race, but congressional contribution caps are both stringent and low, and they don’t allow family members and billionaires to dump lots of cash. Unless some rich people come in with big-time dark money, Bailey will be running a shoestring race against Bost.
Bost can also count on the National Republican Congressional Committee, which runs a well-funded incumbent protection program.
“Darren Bailey moved to a downtown Chicago penthouse to get blown out by J.B. Pritzker; now he’s back seeking another political promotion,” said NRCC spokesperson Chris Gustafson when Bailey announced against Bost. “Mike Bost is focused on delivering conservative results for Southern Illinois, and that’s why voters will re-elect him.”
Bost has also lined up about half the Republican county sheriffs in his district, plus a couple of retired sheriffs. Those folks loved Darren Bailey last year but are sticking with Bost this time around. Bost received 75% of the vote last November, compared to Bailey’s 72.5 % in the district against Pritzker. And Bost was recently endorsed by National Right to Life, which he described as “America’s oldest and largest pro-life organization.”
Bost knows how to speak to “the base,” calling out “Joe Biden and the crazy liberals in Congress,” and their “woke, radical agenda” for “causing chaos with our economy, confusion in our schools, and a crisis at our southern border,” during his reelection announcement.
Bost also said that while the district needs a fighter, “We’ve got enough show horses in Washington as it is; that’s why I remain laser focused on serving the people and delivering real results for Southern Illinois, the place I’ve proudly called home my entire life.”
Bailey did not bother delivering any results when he was in the state legislature, other than making people feel good about voting for him. But he’s extremely adept at that task, so he probably doesn’t need a whole lot of money to remain competitive. He has authentic far-right street cred coming out his ears.
Cor Strategies, which polls for Republicans, released a poll last week showing the incumbent Bost ahead of Bailey 43-37. A Bost win could help show other “work horse” conservative Republicans how to fend off “show horse” insurgents. A Bailey win would once again illustrate the party’s far-rightward lurch.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 8:38 am:
My take away is that violence against public records seems to be key for winning over Republican voters.
- Jerry - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 9:28 am:
Bon Jovi > Gun’s N Roses
- Larry Bowa Jr. - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 9:30 am:
“causing chaos with our economy, confusion in our schools, and a crisis at our southern border”
Golly if I wasn’t a savvy politics watcher I might begin to think that Republicans are inescapably, inherently ridiculous.
- Flyin'Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 9:41 am:
Setting aside the comparison of two of the most overrated rock bands in the history of music, Bost v. Bailey-a Mensa meeting it ain’t.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 10:07 am:
This would seem to be the only part of the state where the show horse vs work horse comparison would have much of an impact.
I’m sure the NRCC has done the research on that one.
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 10:18 am:
I sincerely wonder what exactly Mike Bost thinks he has done for the voters of his district other than to take credit for things that benefit his district after he voted against them.
Dogs best be careful when Bost is blowing the one blowing the dog whistle. He has a bit of an unpleasant history when it comes to how he treats animals.
- The Truth - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 10:26 am:
Ironically, both Axl Rose and Jon Bon Jovi would tell both of these Republicans to kick rocks.
- JS Mill - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 10:45 am:
I am absolutely baffled by the willingness of republican voters to ignore the hypocrisy inherent in bailey’s existence. There was a time not long ago when someone who takes millions in welfare like bailey would be called out by real conservatives.
Anyway, this will definitely be a real battle for both candidates.
- Michelle Flaherty - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 11:10 am:
I think you need to clarify that we’re talking about Buckethead-era GNR.
- Frida's boss - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 11:27 am:
It’s going to be a rough go for Bailey in the fundraising deal. I remember the ads vs McCarter as a dancing puppet being held by Mike Madigan. He just did not have the resources to counteract.
I feel the same train is going to be running down the track at Bailey. He better hope local pols go to his side over Bost, but why would they?
- 47th Ward - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 11:29 am:
Bon Jovi vs. Guns and Roses is a pretty good description. I can’t listen to either, which is exactly how I feel about Bost and Bailey.
Given the nature of the district, I might have gone with Ted Nugent vs. Kid Rock as the better analogy.
- don the legend - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 11:56 am:
…when Bost is blowing the one blowing the dog whistle.
Glad I don’t live in Bost’s district.
- Rudy’s teeth - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 12:17 pm:
Darren Bailey’s shambolic missteps during his campaign for governor indicate that he has no place in Congress.
Starting with his poor performance in the debate with Governor Pritzker and working through his campaign, Bailey proved that he is not prepared to hold public office.
Bailey’s performance art includes destroying documents with a gun and a flamethrower. Then Bailey compares abortion to the Holocaust, said “Let’s move on” after the tragedy in Highland Park, and labeled Chicago a hellhole.
The discussion to separate Chicago from the state of Illinois is another lame-brained idea perpetuated by Bailey. While encouraging a separation of Chicago from the state, Bailey leased a condo at the Hancock and moved in during his campaign for governor. What.
Perhaps Bailey has too much time on his hands and prefers to run for office as a hobby…first, State Rep, then State Senate, then governor, and now Congress.
Even a train stops once in a while.
- Former Downstater - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 12:26 pm:
Can someone introduce a bill removing Southern Illinois from the rest of Illinois? They already introduced one to remove Chicago. Turnabout is fair play, right?
- NorthSideNoMore - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 12:57 pm:
Bailys aw shucks schtick is wearing thin. Bost has been a solid downstate congressman without all the bloviating that DB does
- Dotnonymous x - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 2:44 pm:
Bailey and his ilk ought to watch this…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K6-cEAJZlE
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 4:42 pm:
Great read. Rich gives this a good context, and interestingly fun to another realm.
Rich had it best, when factoring in Trump, as a benchmark, last week.
For me, to all this and this post, what my fear or concern, not for a party that I don’t identity with anymore, is that “will a cult-like need to feel closer to a cult leader be too overwhelming if that cult leader chooses here”
It’s not as much Davis and Miller, but extremism versus cultists, with Bost as one in the 90s couldn’t be beat because he *was* his district, now is Bost stronger in his own persona that no matter a cult endorsement Bost can overcome.
Bost can overcome a Trump endorsement for Bailey, though it would be / will be a steep climb.
Bailey can’t overcome Trump endorsing Bost, and that’s all you need to know about how strong outside Trump Bost actually is.
- Suburban Republican - Monday, Jul 17, 23 @ 7:50 pm:
I think Bailey would most welcome a comparison to Great White.