* We are definitely seeing a whole lot of alarming online videos and news reports of mobs swooping into retailers and hauling off goods. There is a problem out there. WTTW…

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that theft cost American retailers nearly $100 billion last year.

In Illinois, the chamber estimates more than $2 billion worth of goods were stolen from retailers in 2021, but it says the cost to Illinois businesses was more than double that when other factors are taken into account.

One major change occurring over the past decade or so is that organized crime gangs have moved into retail theft in a big way, say retail experts.

Rob Karr, CEO of the Illinois Retail Merchants Association, says stores started to notice a change in the pattern of retail thefts about 12 years ago.

“Some of the larger stores’ loss prevention units started to notice that there were these groups that would go literally state to state, store to store and steal a large amount of things and monetize them,” said Karr. “It has grown in complexity and it has grown exponentially in terms of its scope. You have these organized retail crime syndicates who come in and sweep large amounts of merchandise in an extraordinarily short period of time and then ship them all over the world for profit.”

* From the National Retail Federation’s 2022 Security Survey…

On average, respondents reported inventory shrink of 1.4% (see Figure 10). This is in line with the five-year average of 1.5%.

That 1.5 percent figure is more than just a five-year average. The National Retail Federation’s 2010 report, for example, shows shrinkage at 1.49 percent.

Anyway, here’s Figure 10…

The majority of retailers’ problems are clearly internal. And that’s been the case for a long while. If you look at the National Retail Federation’s 2018 survey, you’ll see that the category of external theft and organized retail crime theft is actually two points lower than it was in 2016…

* From January…

Throughout the pandemic, major retailers have warned about surging theft and a rise in brazen shoplifting attempts. But a top Walgreens executive now says the freakout may have been overblown.

“Maybe we cried too much last year” about merchandise losses, Walgreens finance chief James Kehoe acknowledged Thursday on an earnings call. The company’s rate of shrink — merchandise losses due to theft, fraud, damages, mis-scanned items and other errors — fell from 3.5% of total sales last year to around 2.5% during its latest quarter.

Kehoe’s message is a notable shift from comments about theft from Walgreens and other retailers like Walmart and Target over the last nearly three years.

Companies and retail industry groups have tried to draw attention to shoplifting and “organized retail crime” rings smashing windows and grabbing aisles full of merchandise off shelves, urging lawmakers to crack down. Incidents have certainly happened: Many political leaders and local and national news outlets, including CNN, have picked up on viral incidents of smash-and-grab robberies.

* But let’s go back to the 2022 report…

In fact, retailers, on average, saw a 26.5% increase in ORC incidents in 2021. Beyond the loss of goods, these incidents are increasingly alarming. Eight in 10 retailers surveyed report that the violence and aggression associated with ORC incidents increased in the past year.

Overall, though, the percentages are pretty much the same as they’ve been for years. So what we may have is a smallish number of extremely high-profile and potentially quite dangerous incidents that are understandably freaking people out.

       

20 Comments - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:17 pm: Few media reports focus on what’s driving the spike in thefts: eBay and other online marketplaces. So-called “arbitrage” sellers buy this stuff at far-below market value knowing the stuff is stolen but playing dumb when asked. Start requiring verification and disclosures from these people about their sourcing and you’ll attack this problem from the top down rather than bottom up. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:22 pm: PS - by “spike” I’m going back beyond 2016 - eBay and Amazon third party sellers have been around since the 90s but really became entrenched in the early-mid 00’s. - The Way I See It - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:26 pm: Regardless of what the numbers show, the organized looting of a store is a whole different level of criminality and should be addressed as such. - Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:26 pm: This is Kim Foxx’s legacy - Betty Draper’s cigarette - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:31 pm: === This is Kim Foxx’s legacy=== How? This is nationwide. - ElTacoBandito - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:33 pm: =This is Kim Foxx’s legacy= You know these are national numbers because it is a national issue right? Also the 2 Billion in theft is 2.0% of the total and Illinois is 4.0% of the total population, so our problem is relatively more minor than other states. How do you only see Kim Foxx in all of this data? - fs - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:33 pm: A follow-up question I would have: While the percentage of loss of inventory may be about the same, has the amount that companies have been spending on loss prevention changed? I honestly don’t know the answer to that, but when you calculate the financial impact on a company, all of those costs need to be included as well. - DTownResident - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:40 pm: The Organized retail theft gets a lot of attention because those videos are so intense and something new that for sure needs to be broken up and dealt with. Another high percent of theft is from internal matters…whether at warehouses or from retail staff at stores…internal theft is also high but does not get the attention of the organized theft. Perhaps both even work together with some internal theft supplying the organized without the smash and grabs. A third area is that with the increase in self checkouts there is known to be an increase in customer theft there. It is probably not as high as the other two but is also an increase. - charles in charge - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:47 pm: == Regardless of what the numbers show, the organized looting of a store is a whole different level of criminality and should be addressed as such.== You’re right, we should definitely all be more concerned about how you feel after viewing a viral video than the actual causes, scope or impact of the problem. /s - Sue - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:48 pm: Since most of you all are smarter than me- could any one explain why is it in the Democratic Party’s interest for there to be more crime. All of the progressive prosecutors in Dem run cities who have campaigned on softening their approach to prosecution have ended up with more crime plaguing their cities. Today Dick’s Sporting Goods is getting its stock price decimated on its report of increased shrinkage. How does it help the constituents in these cities( or anywhere) to have increased criminal activity? - Friendly Bob Adams - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:50 pm: I think it’s the organized nature of these thefts that are disturbing for so many observers. And of course videos are much more common now. But since the total amount of shoplifting losses is about the same as in prior years, everyone should take a deep breath. - MOON - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 12:59 pm: What we have is states attorney’s and judges that fail to prosecute and punish. Also, any on duty guards that try to prevent these waves of thieves fear they will be seriously injured or prosecuted for doing their job. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 1:11 pm: ==Since most of you all are smarter than me- could any one explain why is it in the Democratic Party’s interest for there to be more crime.== When you say something dumb like that you aren’t likely to get an answer to an absurdly dumb statement. - Stephanie Kollmann - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 1:11 pm: Thank you for adding the important context here. It certainly seems that WTTW should have done it. Letting Karr draw false equivalencies unchallenged - for instance, his implication that adopting a normal-to-conservative felony threshold line is the same as not prosecuting cases at all and excuses all manner of police behavior - is a mystifying choice. As were Raoul’s wild claims about terrorism. Illinois already passed one unnecessary law about this topic. It doesn’t need even more hype. - Chicago Blue - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 1:23 pm: @ Sue. Assuming good faith, you only have to look at what has happened over the last year in San Francisco since the progressive DA was recalled by rich tech bros. The new appointed “tough on crime” DA has led to a staggering… but mild increase in violent and other crimes. Shocker! All the rhetoric sans policy does not fix the problem. https://missionlocal.org/2023/06/one-year-after-recall-violent-crime-is-up-under-da-brooke-jenkins/ - Benjamin - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 1:42 pm: ==All of the progressive prosecutors in Dem run cities who have campaigned on softening their approach to prosecution have ended up with more crime plaguing their cities.== Gonna stop you right there, Sue. There’s no evidence that progressive prosecutors are responsible for increases in crime. See this study: https://munkschool.utoronto.ca/research/violent-crime-and-public-prosecution Admittedly, this is only violent crime, not property crime like shoplifting. But you’ll need to find some data backing you up if you want to make a sweeping assertion like that and get useful answers. - Larry Bowa Jr. - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 2:40 pm: “the percentages are pretty much the same as they’ve been for years” Media could choose to make this fact the headline and actually educate the stupefied public, but somehow we all know that won’t happen. - Dotnonymous x - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 2:56 pm: More gin for the gin’em up mill. - DuPage Dad - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 2:57 pm: TBH I am surprised that it is not higher. But not for some “crime is high” reason. Simply because there are more self-checkout machines and fewer actual humans at the front of stores now than a decade ago and we have basically moved to an “honor system” plus some security/anti-theft scanners at the door. - Frida's boss - Tuesday, Aug 22, 23 @ 9:05 pm: The amount of shrink shouldn’t be the only number looked at. Increased costs for security and anti-theft measures should be added to the costs. Also the overall trauma to employees, who are just trying to do their job, when a gang of people come rushing in knocking over and breaking everything, pushing and shoving people in their way, fighting security, etc. You shouldn’t need combat pay to work at a retail store. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.