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Fun with numbers
Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller * Total electric vehicle counts for Illinois as of August 15th of each year, according to the Secretary of State’s office…
* 2019: 16,882 (+66%) * 2020: 22,612 (+34%) * 2021: 32,561 (+44%) * 2022: 48,917 (+50%) * 2023: 79,559 (+63%) * 2024: 111,107 (+40%) * I asked Isabel to make a couple of graphs… 
* Crain’s headline…
* Scroll way down…
Elon has been damaging his brand with his online antics…
* Also, according to AAA, last year at this time, Illinois gas prices averaged $3.979 per gallon. Today, they’re $3.49 per gallon, a 12 percent drop. * More from the Crain’s story…
That’s still only about half the chargers the state needs, according to the article. * If the current rate of a 40 percent annual increase holds (and it may not), Illinois will have 837,000 electric vehicles on the road by mid-August of 2030. That’ll obviously be short of the governor’s 1 million goal. But, if auto manufacturers continue improving their products and Illinois’ charging infrastructure finally catches up with demand, then the goal is achievable. …Adding… There are also 359,738 hybrid vehicles registered in Illinois. The last time I had a hybrid, I barely used any gasoline except for road trips.
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- Norseman - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:01 pm:
Build them and they will come. EV’s are going to happen, so build, build, build charging stations as fast as we can. It’s going to be a major infrastructure issue that needs to be incorporated our transportation system designs.
- Sonny - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:01 pm:
Would like to see incentives for e-bikes. The market is exploding and the rebates in other states are getting snatched up sometimes within minutes.
- Rabid - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:02 pm:
Musk could of posted a cat recipe for relief
- Give Us Barabbas - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:05 pm:
I never buy cars new; I buy them used, usually about two years, because taking the depreciation hit and the off the lot price is for the foolish. And I tend to keep them ten to fifteen years. This works for me but though I would like to get an electric or hybrid vehicle next, the used market prices are still pretty high and selection short and narrow.
- SKI - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:06 pm:
Two other factors potentially affecting adoption of EVs are range & price. EVs have come a long, LONG, way in just the last decade when it comes to improving range and changing. However lots of people still don’t like the idea of having to sit for 30-40 minutes in the middle of a trip to recharge.
Price is a bigger barrier to entry. Only a certain percentage of the population can afford $60-100k vehicles. Some manufacturers have introduced models aimed towards lower budgets, but overall EVs still remain a vehicle for the upper class.
- Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:06 pm:
A growing (for now) but small percentage of all passenger registrations.
PASSENGER 6,922,612
https://www.ilsos.gov/departments/vehicles/statistics/activereg/home.html
https://www.ilsos.gov/departments/vehicles/statistics/activereg/home.html
- AlfondoGonz - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:11 pm:
I wouldn’t drive a Tesla if one was given to me for free, due entirely to Elon Musk.
Those Rivians look beautiful. I see a ton up around Highland Park and have heard nothing but rave reviews.
- WK - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:12 pm:
Tesla went out and built chargers at intervals on interstates, which is why they have the best network and why the other automakers are jumping in with them on the NACS connector.
If this plan seeks to do something similar, that’s a great idea. Every time I get ready for a roadtrip, I check the charger maps. A lot of places downstate don’t have chargers so if it’s too far I just take my wife’s ice car.
There are chargers all over the suburbs and they keep building them or just building more in the same towns. At this point that is a waste because most ev owners charge them at home except for long trips. They need them in the rural areas far more. If this new grant is going to try to fill in the wholes along interstates, that’s great, but so far all I’ve seen is more along the interstates in the same areas that are already covered.
- very old soil - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:17 pm:
Ah, innumeracy strikes again.
- TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:24 pm:
ahh, good ol’ using second derivatives to try to find a negative point to make. And if there isn’t a point to be found in the second derivative, use the third derivative which would also be negative in this case.
“The rate of the increase, of the increase of sales increasing has slowed down. Is this the end of the EV craze.”
Of course, in raw numbers the actual amount of sales is still increasing year over year.
But that’s boring.
–The last time I had a hybrid, I barely used any gasoline–
I have a 2nd vehicle that is a hybrid. It also gets risky once you get out of the habit of going to gas stations at all. 3 Months went by and I all but forgot the car needed gas put into it occasionally. It’s so infrequent I’m starting to get concerned the gas in the tank will start going bad before I can use it.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:26 pm:
===overall EVs still remain a vehicle for the upper class===
Agreed.
Also, who are the geniuses who decided to make giant EV pickup trucks? Did they conduct any market research?
- Bogey Golfer - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:29 pm:
Was shopping for a new SUV. Difference between a Plug-In Hybrid and an ICE (Toyota RAV4) was $18K, plus there would be a 6-month delivery. It was explained the demand for Plug-Ins in California made it difficult to get one here.
Moreover, having an EV in the winter is an issue, as the battery life when it’s
- Dupage - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:30 pm:
It might help if the state rebate incentives for purchasing electric vehicles were actually funded.
- leonard - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:37 pm:
Elon should be more careful with his comments about
Elon should be more careful with his comments about Taylor
Elon should be more careful with his comments about Taylor Swift a certain football player just might put a knot on his head
- Edwardsville Guy - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:39 pm:
While this data is interesting, wouldn’t it be more helpful to see how many new registrations occurred each year rather than the total number of registrations.
- Seventh Floor - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:41 pm:
Its disappointing to see how low the number of hybrids are compared to the overall number of registered vehicles in Illinois (~ over 4 mil) - that technology has been around for much longer and has only gotten better in recent years. While EVs are still too expensive for the average buyers, hybrids should be more attainable
- Common Sense - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:41 pm:
EVs today are perfect as a second car option or first car option for those who rarely travel out of range. Next generation will likely incorporate solid state batteries that allow a 500 mile or so range, quicker recharge and slower decline in battery health. It will be the technological breakthrough that make gas engines obsolete.
- JS Mill - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:43 pm:
= giant EV pickup trucks?=
Right! The Hummer is 10,000 lbs. And the fit and finish is laughable. But 10,000lbs!!
- Cool Papa Bell - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:46 pm:
Charging, range, cost. Major obstacles right now for EV’s.
Toyota says they are near production of solid state batteries. If they are, and if the rumors prove true. That will a significant milepost in EV adoption. Possible range of 600+ miles and fast charging.
- Original Rambler - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 12:55 pm:
Next car in 2 years will be an EV or a hybrid. I think an increase in hybrids are what will slow EV sales. Like Alfredo, I will not think of a Tesla (or even joining X).
The hostility some fellow gearheads have toward EVs does surprise me. There’s a place in this world for both.
- Mason County - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:03 pm:
Next step is to fair way to tax EV’s to replace motor fuel tax. That needs to be addressed quickly.
- Blue to the Bone - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:16 pm:
We purchased an EV last year to the tune of $55K and received the $7,500 tax credit AND the $4,000 state rebate bringing down our actual out of pocket cost to about $43,500 give or take. I see countless gas-powered cars on the road during my daily commute that easily cost double of what we paid. I disagree that EVs are not easily accessible due to price. It’s an easy decision to make in my opinion if you’re a commuter, especially if you have ComEd and can take advantage of their incentives for a home charger. Educating the public seems to me to be the biggest obstacle.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:21 pm:
=Toyota says they =
From Reuters
“slashed its electric vehicle production plans for 2026 by a third, the Nikkei business daily reported, becoming the latest automaker to roll back electric car plans as EV sales momentum wanes”
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-cut-2026-global-ev-production-by-around-third-1-mln-nikkei-reports-2024-09-06/
- Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:22 pm:
that was me at 1:21
- Anotheretiree - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:26 pm:
Hybrids are definelty coming on strong .Agree on the need for EV’s gas tax equivalent. Perhaps ask Bill Gates for a tracking chip in the next Vaccine lol? As for Tesla…. I propose Neon Lusk as the name of the next Bond villain.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:31 pm:
===slashed its electric vehicle production plans for 2026 by a third===
More fun with numbers.
From the linked story: “Toyota said in a statement there was no change to its intention to produce 1.5 million EVs per year by 2026 and 3.5 million by 2030. It said, however, that the figures were not targets but benchmarks for shareholders.”
Also: “Toyota’s global EV sales reached 104,018 in 2023″ https://electrek.co/2024/01/30/toyota-sold-100k-evs-2023-less-than-1-of-sales/
Some of y’all are twisting numbers to lie on here, and I’m kinda sick of it.
- froganon - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:34 pm:
I’ve been driving a Hyundai Ionique 5 for 14 months. It cost me just over 50K and it came with two years of free, public charging and a 1% finance charge on the loan. I’m earning the current rate on my investments, paying off the loan at 1% and loving the car. It drives like a dream and takes me 15 to 20 minutes to charge in the summer, 20 to 25 in cold weather. When two years are up I’ll install a charger in my garage and continue for pennies per mile. I wouldn’t touch a Tesla but the Hyundais and Kias are terrific. We do have a gas eating
SUV for longer trips but anything under 250 miles, we drive the Ionique.
- cermak_rd - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:43 pm:
I was looking forward to considering an EV for my next vehicle but the graveyard of EVs at Oak Brook mall during a cold snap really turned me off to them. I live in Chicago, it gets cold here on occasion.
And then there’s the risks of lithium batteries.
- WK - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:46 pm:
=EVs today are perfect as a second car option or first car option for those who rarely travel out of range=
You can buy an EV for less than $30k that goes 250 miles or more on a charge. The vast majority of people don’t travel a fraction of that in an average week, much less a day. They are a perfectly good first car for most people. Add to that the fact there is almost no maintenance to an EV. They have passed the point of being more practical than ICE cars for most people.
- DEE - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:54 pm:
The link the Huppke article made me wax for the Zorn/Huppke Tribune days when I anxiously awaited my newspaper delivery
- Dotnonymous x - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:56 pm:
Tesla surveillance cameras are watching you.
- Blue to the Bone - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 1:57 pm:
Why doesn’t anyone ever comment on the regular stalls and breakdowns of gasoline-powered vehicles which seem to snarl traffic on a daily basis as well? I’m guessing that all the stranded EVs was just a symptom of poor planning and not the vehicle’s fault. People also still run out of gas on the highway too, right?!?
- Soccermom - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 2:00 pm:
We’ve made the switch to EVs, and we love it. (In general. I mean, occasionally Soccerdad’s ADHD kicks in and we find ourselves undercharged. But in general, it’s great.)
And as far as the risk of lithium batteries — it’s real, but there are also risks to gasoline.
Just wanted to add — I love that people are starting to call Teslas “Deploreans”
- WK - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 2:26 pm:
=And then there’s the risks of lithium batteries=
Depending on which study you follow, a gas car is between 4 and 10 times more likely to catch fire. They just don’t cover gas car fires on the tv like they do EV fires. The biggest difference is that EV fires are harder to put out and generally they just let them burn out. It’s amazing how people can carry a lithium battery in their pocket and drive a car with a tank full of combustible liquid around with no worries, but an EV scares them.
- Excitable Boy - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 2:35 pm:
- Also, who are the geniuses who decided to make giant EV pickup trucks? -
My company bought a F-150 Lightning to use for visits to job sites. It’s pretty fun to drive, but the range doesn’t make it very useful overall for our business. A hybrid would be a better fit especially given it’s use as a mobile generator.
- Give Us Barabbas - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 2:38 pm:
Over by the state and federal surplus lot in Springfield is a small fleet of new Ford electric Mach Es. The story I heard is that this was a fleet purchase the state motor pool but the cars are in storage waiting for charging stations at the offices where they will be based.
- Unionman - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 2:40 pm:
If they really wanted to incentivize purchasing EVs, then they should further incentivize residential solar power. It is hard to justify purchasing an ICE for urban travel if I can charge my EV in my garage which is powered by free solar energy. The biggest impediment to more solar energy on residential buildings is the instillation costs. Installation of solar panels can cost $30,000 for a standard Chicago lot home.
- Homebody - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 2:54 pm:
100% agree with Sonny. Get some incentives for ebikes, in particular the larger more expensive cargo bikes. I’d wager that something like 50% or more of personal car trips in Chicago between April and November could be replaced by an Urban Arrow or similar.
I have a non-cargo Lectric which is more than capable of hauling groceries and getting me into the loop and back home on a single charge.
E-bikes are a much quicker, cheaper way to get not just internal combustion engines off the road, but also reduces traffic and wear and tear on roads, as well as reducing air pollution particulates from tires and brakes.
- Pundent - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 3:01 pm:
=New registrations of Teslas, which is the top-selling brand of EVs in Illinois and accounts for more than half of the state’s unit sales, dropped 18% in the first six months from the year-ago period.=
Setting aside my personal feelings about Elon, this drop was inevitable. Tesla has been very slow in updating their current lineup preferring to invest in niche vehicles like the Cybertruck. On the whole the fit and finish of the entire lineup has been subpar and lowering prices on new vehicles has agitated recent buyers. Elon previously said Tesla’s would never depreciate. Not sure why anyone would believe that and they are now taking substantial depreciation hits. And on top of that legacy car makers are now putting out their own EV’s which in many instances are superior to Tesla.
- City Zen - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 3:11 pm:
==Elon has been damaging his brand with his online antics…==
Meh, it’s the platforms. The bones of the Model 3 date back to 2017. Model Y is 2019. Model S hasn’t received a major design update since 2016. That’s too long in automotive years.
- ANON - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 3:16 pm:
and why should taxpayers pay for charging stations and not EV owners?
- Concerned Dem - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 3:18 pm:
I understand why the window for applying for an receiving the State’s EV rebate is limited, but it would help sales if it was more widely accessible.
An example being anyone that because the current cycle for the rebates doesn’t start until January, so anyone that bought an EV prior to October is ineligible for it.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 3:35 pm:
===and why should taxpayers pay for charging stations and not EV owners?===
and why should taxpayers pay for protecting the Persian Gulf and not ice owners?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 3:36 pm:
(That one was for wordslinger. Rest his soul)
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 3:38 pm:
I have seen a noticeable increase in EVs in the exurbs and downstate within the last year. Sometimes 2 or 3 at once in plain view while driving, which almost never happened pre-COVID. Despite the Musk factor, 90% of what I see are Teslas. When Hertz dumped a bunch of them, they were available at a good-for-EVs price.
The only thing holding me back from going full EV is that I need a tow vehicle, and EVs still have a ways to go in solving their towing range issues. I think hybrids with decent all-electric range will be around for a while, but we will see less and less new sales of gas-only vehicles. We’re not at the tipping point yet, but it’s coming.
- Flapdoodle - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 4:11 pm:
Before buying my current ICEV in 2022, I looked for an equivalent EV or hybrid. Special considerations beyond good street and highway performance included (a) fuel range b/c I make regular photography trips to the SW and NW where I’m frequently 400 miles round trip from *any* fuel source, (b) modest off road capability to handle 3 season back country driving conditions, and (c) no trucks (lack inside storage for sensitive equipment). There were no suitable EVs or hybrid vehicles available, at least none that came within $10K of the ICEV I eventually bought, all state and federal rebates included.
My point is simply that EVs and hybrids are now focused on fairly generic markets and are thus too often irrelevant to potential buyers with more specific requirements. And even if an appropriate EV or hybrid exists, it’s quite likely to be priced beyond an average person’s financial reach. If things are improving in this regard (I’m skeptical), they’re not improving fast enough.
- Sue - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 4:26 pm:
No matter how much money either the state or federal govts throw into EV’s -you can’t force people to buy a vehicle they don’t want to purchase- all of the car manufactures ( other then Tesla) are bleeding cash on EV’s- GM- Chrysler-Ford- and perhaps worst CW- Ford claims it loses 40k on every EV it sells- JB can’t magically change these dynamics and is going to look foolish wasting state resources subsidizing facilities which either don’t get built or employ far fewer folks then he is counting on
- Pundent - Thursday, Sep 12, 24 @ 4:37 pm:
The reaction to EV’s reminds me of the hostile response when Japanese cars started making in-roads in the US years ago. We don’t hear much of the “Buy American” rhetoric these days when it comes to the cars on our roads. And we seem to have really taken a liking to the Honda’s and Toyota’s that have become very popular. I suspect that things will work out pretty much the same for EV’s.
The other reality that tells me that EV’s are going to continue to be a bigger part of our future is how the move to electrification is occurring globally. Automobile manufacturing is a global business and European countries are moving faster in pushing manufacturers to drop ice vehicles. The UK is mandating the elimination of new ice vehicles by 2030 (although dates could change) and other countries are following suit. As such, many of the European automakers have announced that their line-ups will move to all electric sooner rather than later. While the US manufacturers may not move as swiftly, they’ve all but acknowledged that the change is inevitable. And if you have any doubt of that look at where they’re focusing their R&D and new manufacturing facilities.
You can deny that this is happening all you want, and there was a time that people reacted in the same way towards ice vehicles. But just like we moved away from the horse and buggy, so to will our use of gas powered vehicles.