* Democrats tend to beat themselves up pretty badly when they lose elections. Jimmy Carter was a pariah for many years after he lost. Hillary Clinton was pilloried after her 2016 loss. Locally, lots of Democrats have still not forgiven Pat Quinn for his 2014 loss to Bruce Rauner…
Amazing that every single person in Democratic politics knows what went wrong in this election, but none of them knew how to keep it from happening a few days ago.
The Republicans aren’t nearly as tough on their losing candidates. They basically just doubled-down after Donald Trump lost in 2020. Locally, after losing to Pat Quinn, Bill Brady eventually became the Senate Republican Leader. Neither of these are hard and fast rules, of course, because life isn’t completely black and white. I’m just sayin’ “in general.”
* What I would suggest to Democrats is that instead of solely focusing on their endless internal blame games, that they try to learn from Trump’s success this year. I saw various iterations of this TV ad during the campaign and it was just about a perfect play to working people…
The people who work overtime are among the hardest working citizens in our country. And for too long, no one in Washington has been looking out for them. One man will refuse to fall so America and its workers can continue to stand great again.
Simple and effective. Yes, no taxes on Social Security income will be disastrous to the system, but the Dems didn’t really pivot on it and push it back in his face. And the Democrats’ own economic messaging required a lot of explaining because it was less than clear.
Trump also talked constantly about inflation, and had a simple solution for job losses by imposing tariffs.
But based on what’s been landing in many voters’ mailboxes, texts and on their television screens, it would be hard to blame them for thinking they were choosing between Mayor Brandon Johnson and Trump. […]
“Donald Trump and out-of-state billionaires are pulling the strings of Angel Gutierrez,” reads a campaign flyer that depicts Gutierrez as a puppet. The [CTU] flyer tells voters to “expect Angel Gutierrez to dance to Donald Trump’s Project 2025 agenda.” That’s a far-right plan for the federal government under Trump if he’s elected president.
Flyers supporting Gutierrez, meanwhile, show Johnson’s picture next to statistics about CPS student achievement. “In Brandon Johnson’s Chicago Public Schools 3 of 4 students CAN’T READ at grade level.”
“Angel Gutierrez will say NO MORE to Brandon Johnson!” the flyer reads.
Four CTU-endorsed candidates are winning out of ten. But one of those four, Jennifer Custer, has credibly pledged independence from the union and the mayor, although the CTU did do some Trump hits on her opponent. And another, Aaron “Jitu” Brown, was unopposed on the ballot (a write-in candidate did file).
So, in admittedly simplistic terms, the anti-Johnson/CTU message defeated the anti-Trump message. In Chicago. Let that sink in for a bit.
* Illinois Freedom Caucus…
The Illinois Freedom Caucus says the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President has permanently changed the Republican Party and it is the strength of the Trump coalition that has delivered the US Senate, the US House and prevented major losses in Illinois.
“President Donald Trump has transformed the Republican Party into the party of the middle class and working families. His message of hope, optimism and patriotism has brought a broad coalition of voters into the Republican Party. The transformation is real, and it is permanent.
The Trump coalition has propelled US Senate candidates to victory and appears to also preserve Republican control of Congress. Here in Illinois, Trump gained in the collar counties in Illinois and will lose Illinois by only a thin margin. In fact, Donald Trump has INCREASED his margins in Illinois every time he has run.
It appears Republicans in the Illinois House will hold onto their 40 seats. The fact that we did not lose seats is a testament to the strength of the Trump coalition which ran strong even in a deep blue state like Illinois.
Certainly, holding seats is better than losing seats, but the truth is it should have been a better night for Republicans in Illinois. We should have capitalized on the Trump momentum. If we want to bring the national success of the Trump coalition to Illinois, we need to embrace the change he has brought to our party instead of fighting that change. It is time for our party’s leaders to put head in the sand politicians like Jim Edgar, Jim Durkin, Ray LaHood, and Adam Kinzinger to bed. Their political acumen is on par with Adam Kinzinger’s gun safety skills. Illinois Republicans can and will win in Illinois. All we have to do is follow the blueprint set by our 47th President. It turns out the American people really do want secure borders, safe streets, a thriving economy, lower energy costs and they don’t want to pay more in taxes. The values of the Freedom Caucus are American values that appeal to everyone regardless of race. These are the values we have and will continue to fight for as we rebuild and remake the Illinois Republican party.”
Illinois House Democrats have had difficulties every time Trump’s name has appeared on the ballot here. They lost four House seats and one House seat in 2020. This year, it’s starting to look like a wash.
Their record in Trump’s mid-term election was much better, picking up seven seats in 2018.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: President-elect Donald Trump’s new White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, comes from Mercury Public Affairs, the same firm where former Illinois Congresswoman Cheri Bustos is a partner.
Bustos runs Mercury-Illinois and its Midwestern operations and handles federal affairs in D.C.
Her firm’s intimate connection to Wiles could be a big plus for Mercury-Illinois, which opened its doors less than two years ago, right after Bustos left Congress after serving five terms.
Mercury CEO Kieran Mahoney said Wiles’ appointment as White House chief of staff “is great news for the country. Susie has been a valued colleague. We are all proud of her and wish her the best.”
Any thoughts on whether this will be a “big plus” for Mercury-Illinois’ lobbying operation?
I doubt it will be much of a plus, especially once she and the President know how many of the IL Mercury employees were out knocking doors in Michigan and Wisconsin feverishly working against her and the president. I believe a nice paraphrasing of statement from the Trump team was something to the effect of if you weren’t around after 2020 and you weren’t with us, you’re out.
It feels like many people within the party were saying for months what was going wrong. People who have won elections too, Carville, Axelrod, etc.
There is a great deal of Wednesday Morning QB going on, and not all of it is going to be right. But, we lost every single battleground state. A reckoning is needed. What that looks like, and whether it happens is an ongoing question.
===So, in admittedly simplistic terms, the anti-Johnson/CTU message defeated the anti-Trump message. In Chicago. Let that sink in for a bit.===
For what is worth, no one I talked to bought into that framing from CTU. If anything, it encouraged people to look into the candidate more because they were in such disbelief that some running a Project 25 agenda would be on the ballot.
The single most effective ad was the they/them transgender ad, according to the media firm Kamala doled out $500m+ to. If you took Mark Jacob’s sage advice, you would think it’s a stinker.
That’s why one person is in the Oval Office and the other is nobody loud mouth on Twitter.
My blind spot is thinking others see the political world the same way I do. Tariffs will fuel inflation, tax cuts will explode the deficit, threatening the dollar, ruining our long term economy. Many experts agree. It should be self-evident that many of Trump’s simple policy proposals will have perverse impacts.
I also think I know what’s best for other people. But other people have their own ideas about what’s best for them and my arrogance is a big part of the communication problem. I believe we need to tackle climate change as a national security issue and an urgent global problem. But others don’t want to pay more to heat their homes. I need to care about their position too.
NAFTA was great for Wall Street and people like me with 401Ks. It was a disaster to workers who couldn’t shift into the information economy. I think COVID stay-at-home orders and masking helped save lives. Other people thought it was a ridiculous over-reaction. Turns out, a lot of people disagreed with me on that.
My elitism blinded me to the perverse impacts of policy choices I supported and Democrats implemented.
I guess I was the stupid one. I have no problem voting for a woman, or a woman of color. I never expected that to be a deal breaker for so many people in 2024. But again, I was wrong and stupid.
It did not change anything, but I thought it was an ominous sign that Harris’s team thought it would be a good idea to let MBJ stump for her in battle states. He can get a crowd going, but he’s not expanding any base and brings a low approval rating as luggage. Again, not a fatally bad idea, but I thought it showed flawed thinking on her team’s part.
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:11 pm:
Even low information voters probably saw CTU-backed candidates as putting the fox in charge of the hen house and the value of a check on CTU’s power.
@47th Ward. I had the opposite confession it seems. I have no problem with the sex or the race of the person running for office. I look at policies and applications of government that promote competition and business. On topic I think the connection with Mercury connection will be good for Illinois. Pritzker could reach out and make things better but I don’t see that ever happening.
=== Any thoughts on whether this will be a “big plus” for Mercury-Illinois’ lobbying operation? ===
That would be a big “no”. The membership of Democratic supermajorities in the House and the Senate will not be looking very kindly on a shop that helped to put Trump back in the White House. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see how this helps Mercury Illinois.
“none of them knew how to keep it from happening a few days ago.”
On the contrary. If I go back in the comments on this very blog, I can find a comment of mine saying the progressives are doing more damage to their brand than anyone, by the specific actions they are taking and of not listening to their constituents wants, but instead telling their constituents what they want.
Plenty of people knew. They were ignored.
The progressives who listened to this message in my local area increased their margins of victory over their last election further into double digits - while other democrats on the ballot lost ground from their last election, and barely squeaked by with a win by a point or two.
“try to learn from Trump’s success”
The best message to learn from all this, is that the environment of yesterday doesn’t exist any longer, and trying to still operate that way is a recipe for failure.
- friends and family - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:50 pm:
trump also talked openly and often about how he hated paying overtime. he also talked about he would stiff vendors who he felt did a poor job. democrats need to figure out how to run against somebody who is fully capable of exploiting low information voters with complete hypocrisy and lies. do democrats need to become a monster to defeat a monster? its a total conundrum.
“I have no problem voting for a woman, or a woman of color. I never expected that to be a deal breaker for so many people in 2024″
If the left’s goal is to win a nationwide election, stamping your feet and calling 72 million voters racist and sexist is a bold strategy to get there.
To the post: I’ll certainly be putting Mercury PA on my list of lobbying firms to contact when we issue our next RFP as a result of Trump’s COS coming from that group. So yes, I think it will definitely help them out.
Im not buying realignment or anything the con artist Illinois “Freedom” Caucus is saying. Dems simply had a bad candidate. Put JB or Whitmer or anyone else at the top of the ticket and see a much different result.
=If the left’s goal is to win a nationwide election, stamping your feet and calling 72 million voters racist and sexist is a bold strategy to get there.=
Stomping his feet and calling people names sure worked for trump.
I don’t think the hire of Wiles will have any impact for Illinois lobbying. Trump sees things only in terms of personal value to himself. Period.
=My blind spot is thinking others see the political world the same way I do. Tariffs will fuel inflation, tax cuts will explode the deficit, threatening the dollar, ruining our long term economy. Many experts agree. It should be self-evident that many of Trump’s simple policy proposals will have perverse impacts.=
Add in mass arrests of those here illegally will pressure grocery prices, leave food rotting the field and meat not cut at slaughterhouses.
I feel the same way. I know these things to be true, but it’s way easier to shout about scary things and easy fixes. Tariffs’ are taxes, but tariffs’ “put China in its place”.
It’s hard, perhaps impossible to win with the first narrative. I think it was another ad but very similar to the one above and it ran all Saturday and Sunday. It’s when I knew Harris was in deep trouble.
The topic? Cheri has plenty of money but maybe Mercury gets a little more access and opportunity in the White House. The thing is with Trump, what seemingly works one day to curry his favor is out the next. Good luck to those working the hill.
On the one hand the down ballot races were not that bad considering all the inflation and other post-COVID turmoil of the last four years. So in a way it’s tempting to see Trump as a fluke and think different tactics on podcasting or other aspects of messaging and media strategy would have made the difference.
On the other hand, the rural vs. urban split is so stark. And the regional split is so stark. The Democrats need to figure out how be a national party again. Right now it’s just a constellation of metro areas and college towns surrounded by the coasts at the presidential level.
=== To the post: I’ll certainly be putting Mercury PA on my list of lobbying firms to contact when we issue our next RFP as a result of Trump’s COS coming from that group. So yes, I think it will definitely help them out. ===
How will that help their lobbying business relating to the General Assembly?
We were promised Kamala was going to be the generic Dem. That was what we were told, despite all of the data showing the contrary. Biden, who selected her as his #2, was wildly unpopular and she couldn’t think up a single policy she would’ve done different.
My personal views are nearly identical to Kamala. Turns out the nation’s views don’t really align with a CA progressive who has never won an election outside of the Golden State.
Maybe if she had 2 billion dollars instead of 1 billion.
“If the left’s goal is to win a nationwide election, stamping your feet and calling 72 million voters racist and sexist is a bold strategy to get there.”
One of the reasons the GOP sometimes wins elections is because they genuinely have no capability to understand nuance, so it is easy for them to rally an “us vs. them” narrative that is not based in reality.
Elections are won at the margins. There is no doubt, none whatsoever, that some people didn’t vote for Harris because they were not ready to vote for a woman, a person of color, or a woman of color. To make that point, only for the smooth brained people on the right to take terrible offense to the idea that “72 million” are bigots, an idea no one has ever communicated, is a perfect example of how their failure to understand nuance unites them.
Donald says constantly, “it’s not me they hate, it’s you.” And, somehow, people believe that.
Let’s be very, very clear: most democrats hate Trump. Some hate his supporters, but most democrats don’t feel anything worse than pity for Trump supporters.
Agree with low level. Indies and non-MAGA republicans desperately wanted a dem candidate they could get behind. Kamala didn’t resonate with those voters. The dems had a chip shot and missed wide left.
This election didn’t hinge on any one thing. It was a bad combo of a poor candidate choice, short election season, a 4-year drumbeat of failure from Fox News and the GOP, inflation, immigration, and more. No Dem candidate could have won, unless perhaps a white male “of the people” who stormed the race from outside Washington.
Will the Trump voters swayed by that ad do any self-reflection when millions of them are reclassified by the DOL and have their OT pay stripped while millions of others are forced by their companies to accept unusable comp time in lieu of OT pay? Can’t pay taxes on it if you’re not getting it!
Upon reflection, think racism and misogony isn’t being taken seriously enough. Yesterday a commenter said “Obama owned the race issue early … .” McCain’s naming of Sarah Palin stopped Obama dead in the polls … until Lehman Bros. / AIG / et. al. sank McCain’s chances. Think the Mortgage Crisis overwhelmed any residual racism.
The ad is very strong and felt like it should have been an ad for a Democratic candidate. And I think you’re spot on strategically. Rather than announce efforts to protect immigrants and LGBTQ and even bodily autonomy for women under Trump, Pritzker might want to focus messaging on protecting middle class wages and workforce protections, healthcare that won’t potentially bankrupt you and clean energy jobs that may be lost. It seemed like Fox news and other conservative media started pounding the trans narrative after Biden won but well before he was even sworn in. Set up early and pound steadily. Hard to do if you have empathy for how legitimately terrified so many of these people are right now.
== The best message to learn from all this, is that the environment of yesterday doesn’t exist any longer, and trying to still operate that way is a recipe for failure. ==
Smartest thing that has been said. The only electorally actionable conclusion for Democrats from this week is that we have not done a good enough job of listening to these voters and groups, and if we are listening, we aren’t hearing. We need to change our tactics so that we get these people to open up to us and we need to hear them. That will take new ways of thinking and new political operations, and is a prerequisite to building a policy platform and manner of selling it for the midterms and in 2028, when the problems and conclusions and solutions will be different from what they are now.
Which will drive up the deficit which is counter to everything the GOP claims to care about. But he drove up the deficit big time his first term and they still renominated him.
- Jimmy Hart's Megaphone - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 3:27 pm:
==Illinois House Democrats have had difficulties every time Trump’s name has appeared on the ballot here. They lost four House seats and one House seat in 2020. This year, it’s starting to look like a wash.==
It’s not just Trump and when he’s on the ballot. Trump 2016 just accelerated a trend that saw downstate House Democrats losing seats nearly every cycle with Grunloh in 2004. Then the Granberg seat in Obama’s 08, then Flider, Smith, Hoffman, CGordon, the Boland and Hannig seats. Bradley, RD 76, two districts the Democrats drew purposely weaker in 2011 to strengthen 72 and 80. Despite the net gain in a big D 2018, losing RD 118, then Alton and Reitz in 2020.
It’s spin, I get it. Just like Kathy Salvi prophesying the return of the GOP (never mind all the previous elections…nothing to see here, other than this one data point…) But to whom does the IFC give the credit for all those downstate D losses pre-Trump when the HGOP was led by a “head in the sand” moderate like Cross? Dumb luck, I suppose. s/
- Trying to be Rational - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 3:46 pm:
Real Clear Politics has story about Trump outsourcing the ground game to other parties such as Turning Point USA. They got out a lot of low propensity to vote people but a lot of those people voted for Trump and ONLY for Trump. For example, in Michigan Rogers (R) lost to Slotkin by 20,000 votes. But there were 100,000 people who voted just for Trump and nothing else. A more traditional get out the vote campaign would likely have gotten some of those 100,000 Trump-only voters to also vote in other races.
Lots going on here, of course, but two things stand out to me: Democrats have to remember how to talk to working people; Republicans have to explain why, independent of policy concerns (and, apparently, of whatever values are deemed relevant), the disastrous qualities of the person they think fit to be President just don’t matter.
- Demoralized - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 12:50 pm:
I’m don’t think anything to do with Illinois is going to be a plus to the Trump Administration.
- ;) - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 12:51 pm:
I doubt it will be much of a plus, especially once she and the President know how many of the IL Mercury employees were out knocking doors in Michigan and Wisconsin feverishly working against her and the president. I believe a nice paraphrasing of statement from the Trump team was something to the effect of if you weren’t around after 2020 and you weren’t with us, you’re out.
- Alton Sinkhole - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 12:57 pm:
It feels like many people within the party were saying for months what was going wrong. People who have won elections too, Carville, Axelrod, etc.
There is a great deal of Wednesday Morning QB going on, and not all of it is going to be right. But, we lost every single battleground state. A reckoning is needed. What that looks like, and whether it happens is an ongoing question.
Losing stinks.
- Alton Sinkhole - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 12:57 pm:
To the question: Cheri Bustos just got much richer.
- twowaystreet - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 12:58 pm:
===So, in admittedly simplistic terms, the anti-Johnson/CTU message defeated the anti-Trump message. In Chicago. Let that sink in for a bit.===
For what is worth, no one I talked to bought into that framing from CTU. If anything, it encouraged people to look into the candidate more because they were in such disbelief that some running a Project 25 agenda would be on the ballot.
- LPDad - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:10 pm:
The single most effective ad was the they/them transgender ad, according to the media firm Kamala doled out $500m+ to. If you took Mark Jacob’s sage advice, you would think it’s a stinker.
That’s why one person is in the Oval Office and the other is nobody loud mouth on Twitter.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:10 pm:
===Messaging 101: Keep it simple, stupid.===
Or keep it simply stupid.
My blind spot is thinking others see the political world the same way I do. Tariffs will fuel inflation, tax cuts will explode the deficit, threatening the dollar, ruining our long term economy. Many experts agree. It should be self-evident that many of Trump’s simple policy proposals will have perverse impacts.
I also think I know what’s best for other people. But other people have their own ideas about what’s best for them and my arrogance is a big part of the communication problem. I believe we need to tackle climate change as a national security issue and an urgent global problem. But others don’t want to pay more to heat their homes. I need to care about their position too.
NAFTA was great for Wall Street and people like me with 401Ks. It was a disaster to workers who couldn’t shift into the information economy. I think COVID stay-at-home orders and masking helped save lives. Other people thought it was a ridiculous over-reaction. Turns out, a lot of people disagreed with me on that.
My elitism blinded me to the perverse impacts of policy choices I supported and Democrats implemented.
I guess I was the stupid one. I have no problem voting for a woman, or a woman of color. I never expected that to be a deal breaker for so many people in 2024. But again, I was wrong and stupid.
That’s my confession.
- Jurist - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:11 pm:
It did not change anything, but I thought it was an ominous sign that Harris’s team thought it would be a good idea to let MBJ stump for her in battle states. He can get a crowd going, but he’s not expanding any base and brings a low approval rating as luggage. Again, not a fatally bad idea, but I thought it showed flawed thinking on her team’s part.
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:11 pm:
Even low information voters probably saw CTU-backed candidates as putting the fox in charge of the hen house and the value of a check on CTU’s power.
- LPDad - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:24 pm:
= 47th Ward =
You’re right. Americans, especially swing-state voters, don’t elect women.
Signed,
Jacky Rosen, Tammy Baldwin, and Elissa Slotkin
- Big Dipper - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:31 pm:
==His message of hope, optimism and patriotism==
Their grasp of reality explains the IL GOP’s relevance perfectly.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:33 pm:
===Signed,
Jacky Rosen, Tammy Baldwin, and Elissa Slotkin ===
Clinton and Harris lost Michigan and Wisconsin. Harris lost Nevada. (See: No tax on tips)
- clec dcn - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:33 pm:
@47th Ward. I had the opposite confession it seems. I have no problem with the sex or the race of the person running for office. I look at policies and applications of government that promote competition and business. On topic I think the connection with Mercury connection will be good for Illinois. Pritzker could reach out and make things better but I don’t see that ever happening.
- Barrister's Lectern - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:39 pm:
=== Any thoughts on whether this will be a “big plus” for Mercury-Illinois’ lobbying operation? ===
That would be a big “no”. The membership of Democratic supermajorities in the House and the Senate will not be looking very kindly on a shop that helped to put Trump back in the White House. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see how this helps Mercury Illinois.
- TheInvisibleMan - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:49 pm:
“none of them knew how to keep it from happening a few days ago.”
On the contrary. If I go back in the comments on this very blog, I can find a comment of mine saying the progressives are doing more damage to their brand than anyone, by the specific actions they are taking and of not listening to their constituents wants, but instead telling their constituents what they want.
Plenty of people knew. They were ignored.
The progressives who listened to this message in my local area increased their margins of victory over their last election further into double digits - while other democrats on the ballot lost ground from their last election, and barely squeaked by with a win by a point or two.
“try to learn from Trump’s success”
The best message to learn from all this, is that the environment of yesterday doesn’t exist any longer, and trying to still operate that way is a recipe for failure.
- friends and family - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:50 pm:
trump also talked openly and often about how he hated paying overtime. he also talked about he would stiff vendors who he felt did a poor job. democrats need to figure out how to run against somebody who is fully capable of exploiting low information voters with complete hypocrisy and lies. do democrats need to become a monster to defeat a monster? its a total conundrum.
- Beep booop - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:55 pm:
Oprah Winfrey, and Liz Cheney were our surrogates.
I am SHOCKED the working class rejected us lol.
At least we rid the party of uhhhh Al Franken cuz of uhhhh.. a joke photo?
- sulla - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 1:55 pm:
“I have no problem voting for a woman, or a woman of color. I never expected that to be a deal breaker for so many people in 2024″
If the left’s goal is to win a nationwide election, stamping your feet and calling 72 million voters racist and sexist is a bold strategy to get there.
To the post: I’ll certainly be putting Mercury PA on my list of lobbying firms to contact when we issue our next RFP as a result of Trump’s COS coming from that group. So yes, I think it will definitely help them out.
- pragmatist - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:01 pm:
In the battle between really unpopular folks in Chicago about who is most unpopular —MBJ/CTU v Trump—the mayor and his union won.
- low level - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:02 pm:
Im not buying realignment or anything the con artist Illinois “Freedom” Caucus is saying. Dems simply had a bad candidate. Put JB or Whitmer or anyone else at the top of the ticket and see a much different result.
- JS Mill - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:03 pm:
=If the left’s goal is to win a nationwide election, stamping your feet and calling 72 million voters racist and sexist is a bold strategy to get there.=
Stomping his feet and calling people names sure worked for trump.
I don’t think the hire of Wiles will have any impact for Illinois lobbying. Trump sees things only in terms of personal value to himself. Period.
- Cool Papa Bell - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:05 pm:
@47th
=My blind spot is thinking others see the political world the same way I do. Tariffs will fuel inflation, tax cuts will explode the deficit, threatening the dollar, ruining our long term economy. Many experts agree. It should be self-evident that many of Trump’s simple policy proposals will have perverse impacts.=
Add in mass arrests of those here illegally will pressure grocery prices, leave food rotting the field and meat not cut at slaughterhouses.
I feel the same way. I know these things to be true, but it’s way easier to shout about scary things and easy fixes. Tariffs’ are taxes, but tariffs’ “put China in its place”.
It’s hard, perhaps impossible to win with the first narrative. I think it was another ad but very similar to the one above and it ran all Saturday and Sunday. It’s when I knew Harris was in deep trouble.
The topic? Cheri has plenty of money but maybe Mercury gets a little more access and opportunity in the White House. The thing is with Trump, what seemingly works one day to curry his favor is out the next. Good luck to those working the hill.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:07 pm:
On the one hand the down ballot races were not that bad considering all the inflation and other post-COVID turmoil of the last four years. So in a way it’s tempting to see Trump as a fluke and think different tactics on podcasting or other aspects of messaging and media strategy would have made the difference.
On the other hand, the rural vs. urban split is so stark. And the regional split is so stark. The Democrats need to figure out how be a national party again. Right now it’s just a constellation of metro areas and college towns surrounded by the coasts at the presidential level.
- Barrister's Lectern - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:08 pm:
=== To the post: I’ll certainly be putting Mercury PA on my list of lobbying firms to contact when we issue our next RFP as a result of Trump’s COS coming from that group. So yes, I think it will definitely help them out. ===
How will that help their lobbying business relating to the General Assembly?
- Frida's Boss - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:14 pm:
“It’s the Economy, stupid”- James Carville 1992 no different than today
- Beep booop - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:17 pm:
We were promised Kamala was going to be the generic Dem. That was what we were told, despite all of the data showing the contrary. Biden, who selected her as his #2, was wildly unpopular and she couldn’t think up a single policy she would’ve done different.
My personal views are nearly identical to Kamala. Turns out the nation’s views don’t really align with a CA progressive who has never won an election outside of the Golden State.
Maybe if she had 2 billion dollars instead of 1 billion.
- PolOp - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:18 pm:
The mail pieces write themselves now for whoever takes money from Mercury.
Legislators, especially in heavy D districts, don’t want to be labeled as being funded by Trump’s favorite lobbyists.
- AlfondoGonz - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:19 pm:
“If the left’s goal is to win a nationwide election, stamping your feet and calling 72 million voters racist and sexist is a bold strategy to get there.”
One of the reasons the GOP sometimes wins elections is because they genuinely have no capability to understand nuance, so it is easy for them to rally an “us vs. them” narrative that is not based in reality.
Elections are won at the margins. There is no doubt, none whatsoever, that some people didn’t vote for Harris because they were not ready to vote for a woman, a person of color, or a woman of color. To make that point, only for the smooth brained people on the right to take terrible offense to the idea that “72 million” are bigots, an idea no one has ever communicated, is a perfect example of how their failure to understand nuance unites them.
Donald says constantly, “it’s not me they hate, it’s you.” And, somehow, people believe that.
Let’s be very, very clear: most democrats hate Trump. Some hate his supporters, but most democrats don’t feel anything worse than pity for Trump supporters.
- Pundent - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:23 pm:
Harris promised to create an “opportunity economy” which sounds like a slogan that you overpaid a consultant for. What does it even mean?
Trump promised no tax on tips and overtime which sounds like something the guy at the end of the bar would say. No confusion over what that means.
- Cubs in '16 - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:24 pm:
Agree with low level. Indies and non-MAGA republicans desperately wanted a dem candidate they could get behind. Kamala didn’t resonate with those voters. The dems had a chip shot and missed wide left.
- Jibba - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:24 pm:
This election didn’t hinge on any one thing. It was a bad combo of a poor candidate choice, short election season, a 4-year drumbeat of failure from Fox News and the GOP, inflation, immigration, and more. No Dem candidate could have won, unless perhaps a white male “of the people” who stormed the race from outside Washington.
- Chicago Blue - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:47 pm:
Will the Trump voters swayed by that ad do any self-reflection when millions of them are reclassified by the DOL and have their OT pay stripped while millions of others are forced by their companies to accept unusable comp time in lieu of OT pay? Can’t pay taxes on it if you’re not getting it!
- Anyone Remember - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:49 pm:
Upon reflection, think racism and misogony isn’t being taken seriously enough. Yesterday a commenter said “Obama owned the race issue early … .” McCain’s naming of Sarah Palin stopped Obama dead in the polls … until Lehman Bros. / AIG / et. al. sank McCain’s chances. Think the Mortgage Crisis overwhelmed any residual racism.
- Apple - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 2:51 pm:
The ad is very strong and felt like it should have been an ad for a Democratic candidate. And I think you’re spot on strategically. Rather than announce efforts to protect immigrants and LGBTQ and even bodily autonomy for women under Trump, Pritzker might want to focus messaging on protecting middle class wages and workforce protections, healthcare that won’t potentially bankrupt you and clean energy jobs that may be lost. It seemed like Fox news and other conservative media started pounding the trans narrative after Biden won but well before he was even sworn in. Set up early and pound steadily. Hard to do if you have empathy for how legitimately terrified so many of these people are right now.
- RPOne - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 3:07 pm:
== The best message to learn from all this, is that the environment of yesterday doesn’t exist any longer, and trying to still operate that way is a recipe for failure. ==
Smartest thing that has been said. The only electorally actionable conclusion for Democrats from this week is that we have not done a good enough job of listening to these voters and groups, and if we are listening, we aren’t hearing. We need to change our tactics so that we get these people to open up to us and we need to hear them. That will take new ways of thinking and new political operations, and is a prerequisite to building a policy platform and manner of selling it for the midterms and in 2028, when the problems and conclusions and solutions will be different from what they are now.
- Big Dipper - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 3:11 pm:
==Trump promised no tax on tips and overtime==
Which will drive up the deficit which is counter to everything the GOP claims to care about. But he drove up the deficit big time his first term and they still renominated him.
- Jimmy Hart's Megaphone - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 3:27 pm:
==Illinois House Democrats have had difficulties every time Trump’s name has appeared on the ballot here. They lost four House seats and one House seat in 2020. This year, it’s starting to look like a wash.==
It’s not just Trump and when he’s on the ballot. Trump 2016 just accelerated a trend that saw downstate House Democrats losing seats nearly every cycle with Grunloh in 2004. Then the Granberg seat in Obama’s 08, then Flider, Smith, Hoffman, CGordon, the Boland and Hannig seats. Bradley, RD 76, two districts the Democrats drew purposely weaker in 2011 to strengthen 72 and 80. Despite the net gain in a big D 2018, losing RD 118, then Alton and Reitz in 2020.
It’s spin, I get it. Just like Kathy Salvi prophesying the return of the GOP (never mind all the previous elections…nothing to see here, other than this one data point…) But to whom does the IFC give the credit for all those downstate D losses pre-Trump when the HGOP was led by a “head in the sand” moderate like Cross? Dumb luck, I suppose. s/
- Trying to be Rational - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 3:46 pm:
Real Clear Politics has story about Trump outsourcing the ground game to other parties such as Turning Point USA. They got out a lot of low propensity to vote people but a lot of those people voted for Trump and ONLY for Trump. For example, in Michigan Rogers (R) lost to Slotkin by 20,000 votes. But there were 100,000 people who voted just for Trump and nothing else. A more traditional get out the vote campaign would likely have gotten some of those 100,000 Trump-only voters to also vote in other races.
- Maywood Johnny - Friday, Nov 8, 24 @ 4:23 pm:
Lots going on here, of course, but two things stand out to me: Democrats have to remember how to talk to working people; Republicans have to explain why, independent of policy concerns (and, apparently, of whatever values are deemed relevant), the disastrous qualities of the person they think fit to be President just don’t matter.