Illinois voter turnout was 70.42 percent, but registered voters were down a quarter million from peak four years ago
Monday, Dec 2, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller * Click here for the official vote totals book. Illinois State Board of Elections…
* I checked with the state board, and these are the presidential election numbers for the past twenty years…
2020: 8,364,099 registered voters, 6,098,729 ballots cast, 72.92% turnout 2016: 8,029,847 registered, 5,666,118 ballots, 70.56% turnout 2012: 7,520,722 registered, 5,279,752 ballots, 70.2% turnout 2008: 7,789,500 registered, 5,577,509 ballots, 71.60% turnout 2004: 7,499,488 registered, 5,350,493 ballots, 71.34% turnout Kamala Harris received 409,052 fewer votes than Joe Biden in 2020. Part of that could very well be due to this year’s lower voter registration numbers and the lower turnout percentage. Donald Trump received just 2,188 more statewide votes this year than four years ago. If you look at 2016, which had very similar overall numbers, Harris received 27,866 fewer votes this year than Hillary Clinton, while Donald Trump received 303,064 more votes this year than he got then. One other big difference was that third party presidential candidates received almost 300,000 votes in 2016, compared to just a bit over 40,000 votes this year (and about 115K in 2020). * “Illinois Presidential Election Turnout Highest to Lowest, 1976-2024″… * Back to the board’s press release…
* More numbers…
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- Steve - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 11:49 am:
Pennsylvania who also has 19 electoral votes had 6.9 million adults voting. That’s a pretty big difference from Illinois.
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 11:56 am:
Nice pick-up in early in-person voting over 2020 and 2016
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 12:01 pm:
===That’s a pretty big difference from Illinois===
Yeah, but the two sides spent a kajillion dollars and tons of time in that state.
- Steve - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 12:05 pm:
- kajillion dollars-
This is very true. Illinois isn’t a swing state and doesn’t get the attention that Pennsylvania does.
- BC - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 12:06 pm:
These turnout numbers pose a vexing questions for the Democratic election post-mortem. All the polling indicated the Dems had a pretty healthy enthusiasm advantage heading into Election Day — every bit as good as 2008 (see below link.) But Harris’ underperformance compared to Biden is striking. I suspect that Harris excited high-propensity Dems who were voting no matter what, but did not inspire low-propensity Dem leaners to turnout the way dissatisfaction with Trump did in ‘20 and support for Obama did in ‘08.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-beating-republicans-voter-enthusiasm-172111143.html
- Decatur Deliberations - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 12:14 pm:
Once the switch is made from a property tax system to a land value tax system, Illinois will become significantly more attractive. Also once Arizona tragically runs out of water Illinois will be more appealing.
- H-W - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 12:15 pm:
I saw these data earlier. They confirm the Republican candidate for president did not change from 2020 to 2024, while the Democrat candidate for present lost almost half a million votes. It seems obvious to me the problem is not republicans doing better (contrary to Center Square, IPI, etc.). Rather, the problem is a substantial decline in people voting for the Democrat candidate this time.
And as I suggested elsewhere, I am convinced part of this is about women of color being abandoned by a substantial number of democratic voters.
- halving_fun - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 12:30 pm:
Democrats have to learn and not stick with the same stock of strategist, professionals, strategy that have lost them elections.
They should embrace their true base both in policy and platitudes
It is different type of base building which hasn’t that has been done last decade by dems
Jb admin isn’t immune to this, Harris strategy drew from the same playbook
- Frida's Boss - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 12:53 pm:
With the system of automatic voter registration happening at the DMV, and same-day voter registration, shouldn’t registered voter numbers be going up?
There were 8.3 million registered in 2020 yet only 8.1 million registered voters in 2024.
Maybe I’m reading the data wrong-wouldn’t be the first time.
Did Illinois lose voting-age population since 2020?
- Impresario Barnum - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 1:00 pm:
–part of this is about women of color being abandoned by a substantial number of democratic voters–
Without a doubt there are voters who will not vote for a woman of color just based on race/sex (see Will County Clerk race), but landing on an explanation that simple ignores the fact that 10 Democratic women (3 women of color) all won election to the US Senate. Along with numerous women, and women of color, elected across the country to the House. With a lot of them doing better than the Vice President in their state or district.
The Democratic Party has to have a long and serious debate on if we want to be the Party of Main Street or Wall Street, and until we replace weak rhetoric with bold action I am not sure anything will change anytime soon.
- BC - Monday, Dec 2, 24 @ 4:04 pm:
== Democrats have to learn and not stick with the same stock of strategist, professionals, strategy that have lost them elections. ==
Some truth to that, but that same consultant class did craft messaging for a lot of senate and house candidates who outperformed Harris in battleground states and congressional districts where turnout was much better than it was here. Not saying Dems shouldn’t do a deep re-think — we should, particularly around economic policy and messaging. But the simple answer to what went wrong might be: 1) Biden was too unpopular, 2) Harris was too close to him, and 3) Harris just wasn’t a good enough candidate to overcome 1 and 2.
- halving_fun - Tuesday, Dec 3, 24 @ 11:14 am:
=== response to some BC’s questions & statements =======
From my perspective, lately (last 10-12 years ) Democrats hire from elitist circles, tons of political mercenaries that work for any party, any person, Anyone anytime
These circles of friends friends of friends may not actually understand core Democratic values,
They have no passion. They have no authentic reason to be there except for their career
Values that the large coalitions of voters actually believe in
So when they construct script, speeches, polling strategies, they fall short. They come as crosses inauthentic. They’re blinded to regular Democratic concerns, We voice them, but we’re not listened to
We’re not included in the conversation and we’re not at the table