Greg Hinz: Arguably, the main thing the General Assembly does every year is pass a budget, and there’s big storm clouds on the horizon. The governor’s own budget office has projected a deficit of more than $3 billion. There are lots of people and lots of governments, local governments, who want more money. Mr. Speaker, why don’t you take this one first? How are you going to tackle this? Is anything in particular on the table, off the table in coming up with a balanced budget?
House Speaker Chris Welch: Well, let me say this, Greg, and I will tell you, we’ve had grim financial forecasts before, and you’ve written in the past articles that ‘78 Democrats will never pass a balanced budget.’ And I cut those out and put them on a bulletin board. I give speeches. I say people are rooting against you. And what do we do? We pass the budget, a balanced one that’s responsible and compassionate. We’ve done it every year that I’ve been Speaker.
Hinz: This one’s really grim though.
Welch: We’ve been there before.
Hinz: So how you going to do it?
Welch: Well, we’re going to first of all get together with our respective caucuses and listen to what they have to say. I hope they’re out knocking on doors and listening to their constituents. Because we’ve got to make sure we’re responding to the people that send us to Springfield. But we’ve done it before, and we’re going to do it again, and we’re going to do it in a responsible and compassionate way.
Hinz: Let me push it just a little bit. Is it going to be with cuts, or is it going to be with new revenues?
Welch: Well, I think you have to certainly recognize that we have a $3.1 billion deficit going in, and we have to tell the caucuses, there’s not going to be any new spending. Let’s start there.
Hinz: None?
Welch: Well, like I said, we got to start there. Don’t come in the door looking to spend more money. GOMB has said we have a $3.1 billion deficit, and we start there, and we’re going to go line by line through this budget like we’ve done in the past. And we can find efficiencies, we will.
Hinz: Mr. Harmon?
Senate President Don Harmon: Well, you have to level set here. First of all, the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget is paid to be professionally pessimistic. Even the governor has decided that they are not always right.
But let’s remember what they are saying. They are saying that if we do nothing at the end of the next fiscal year, going into the following fiscal year, we’d face the $3 billion deficit.
The Speaker’s right, we have seen worse projections in our time in Springfield, and we have found ways to survive. Under Governor Pritzker, we’ve seen this every year. It’s been a tough projection. This is tougher than some, but we have found ways to economize, to save money, to pass a responsible balanced budget without a general tax increase.
Hinz: You seem to be suggesting that the real budget deficit isn’t $3 billion, it’s something less.
Harmon: Again, the projection is if we do nothing at the end of the next fiscal year, that would be the deficit. We aren’t going to do nothing. We haven’t figured out exactly what we’re going to do, but it’s a projection based on the set of facts that aren’t likely to come to pass.
- Telly - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 8:23 am:
I think both leaders are concerned that they have a lot of members who joined the GA after the Rauner administration and therefore have no idea what a tough budget process is like.
- Give Me A Break - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 8:30 am:
There are members who have never faced a true budget shortfall or had to cast a vote on budget that makes reductions, including in human services budgets, the learning curve is going to be a challenge for some.
- SWSider - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 9:03 am:
The Democrats are absolutely terrified some of their members might push for revenue instead of cuts.
- Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 9:12 am:
=Well, I think you have to certainly recognize that we have a $3.1 billion deficit going in=
The key question is, will the deficit be a critical enough issue for the Democrats to be willing to lose seats by proposing revenue increases via higher taxes? They would fortify the progressive wing but alienate others. Time for the D supermajority to be truly tested under stress.
- Tim - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 9:21 am:
This could be interesting. There are two types of math involved here. Real math, and government math. Will the budget really be balanced, or will it be government balanced? I know which one I would bet on. There’s way too many people in that group that just think money just shows up because they need it for some thing they consider to be important. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
- Jerry - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 9:26 am:
Looks like the Bears and Six aren’t getting new places. Oh well.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 9:27 am:
Harmon and Welch don’t seem “terrified”, they strike me as serious. And they have been down this road before.
“This one’s really grim though” was Hinz not here 2010-2018? It has been much worse. Much. As long as they take the GOMB predictions seriously and are consistent with past practice we will end up in the right place.
- Jilted - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 9:52 am:
Fair tax, now
- Techie - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 10:00 am:
“Fair tax, now”
It would be great to have this in place, but of course that doesn’t help today.
It’s interesting to me that Hinz didn’t press on, asking for specifics like, “What specific items could you imagine spending less on?” They should have some idea of what is less of a priority, even if they would prefer not to say it out loud.
- Spencer - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 10:11 am:
My bet is on lots of smoke and mirrors, accounting gimmicks, and puffery. Then declare victory and go home.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 10:33 am:
Please make the first cut phasing out the healthcare benefits for non-citizens. From a moral and religious perspective, I believe we humans are all God’s children no matter immigration status but that’s not where the politics are. In deficit times Dems should prioritize benefits to citizens above non-citizens. That program is bad for Pritzker’s 2028 presidential ambitions anyway.
- low level - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 10:42 am:
==My bet is on lots of smoke and mirrors, accounting gimmicks, and puffery. Then declare victory and go home.==
My bet is on your drive by comment being ignored by ratings agencies who continue to give Illinois upgrades due to sound fiscal practices by Illinois Democrats.
- Larry Bowa Jr. - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 11:12 am:
“That program is bad for Pritzker’s 2028 presidential ambitions anyway.”
As someone who would probably vote for him, I don’t care. He needs to stay focused on the job he’s doing for its own purposes.
If Democrats are that worried about 2028 already they should cut the crap and find a TV personality who lies well on camera and has Dem-adjacent politics to nominate. Give the voters a cheap thrill. It’s not like the media is going to help them understand anything that happens in the next 4 years anyway.
- Barbie - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 11:18 am:
Well, if Chicago becomes ground zero for deportations, as threatened a few days ago, the staff and budget allotted to care for the migrants should decrease. I am not a Republican by any stretch but perhaps it is time to downsize some programs and focus more on maximizing the existing resources to help those in need who are residents of the state?
- Pundent - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 11:23 am:
=Please make the first cut phasing out the healthcare benefits for non-citizens.=
I prefer governing over stunts particularly when they’re rooted in being cruel to other humans. Governing is inherently difficult and if you’re going to do it well it comes with inevitable consequences. If taking an humane stance towards migrants is disqualifying then Pritzker won’t be a viable Presidential candidate. But some things are more important than political aspirations.
- Spencer - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 11:33 am:
–”upgrades due to sound fiscal practices”–
Covid money is the equivalent of being born on 3rd base and thinking you hit a triple.
- very old soil - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 11:36 am:
Didn’t New York City just close a large facility for Immigrants to remove an easy target for Homan?
- RNUG - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 11:39 am:
While it can’t really be done this way, my guess is JB will ask all the agencies to propose an austerity budget with an across the board cuts of between 5% and 10%.
However, when it comes to actual numbers, you will likely see it more targeted. Agencies with federal matching funds will likely not be cut, and may even see an increase of it would capture a lot more federal funding.
We’ve been through this before … just not with this exact mix of legislators.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 12:10 pm:
@Pundent - Budgetary decisions are about choices. It is not inhumane or cruel to suggest phasing out the benefits for non-citizens before cuts to citizens. It is recognizing we live in a world of finite resources. Did you also think it inhumane or cruel when the program was set up to deny health behefits to non-citizens under 42 or over 64? Or proclaim it inhumane or cruel when new enrollments stopped when it became clear this program was an underfunded mess?
- levivotedforjudy - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 12:13 pm:
I’ve lived through deeper budget cuts than this while working for the State of IL. This is about a 6 percent cut. The only reason I can figure what so many people think the sky is falling is because some legislators have never had to do it. But a lot more have and know how to.
- Tim - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 12:23 pm:
Jilted/Techie,
Fair tax never. The taxpayers already said no, and based on the recent election results are NOT in a better mood. Running that again would be a waste of money which is something Illinois does extremely well. And has done well for a very long time.
- Sue - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 12:37 pm:
Assuming the State didn’t make the Covid largesse part of the permanent spending base-why is there a 3 billion deficit?- could JB have lied about the Covid dollars being treated as a one off in terms of programming? We know 500 million is likely the migrants and given JB’s seeming affection to make Illinois a repository-that number is bound to explode
- Give Us Barabbas - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 12:43 pm:
The graduated Fair Tax is something that would take a steady, multi year effort to get passed. With Madigan as boogeyman out of the picture, it may be easier to try the second time. My intuition is that how the voters think about billionaires is changing and could hit an inflection point around the two year midterms after the predicted recession and other upheavals. Trump harnessed a lot of low to mid income economic frustration and that formula was used by Florida Ken to great effect to kill Fair Tax before. I personally saw that in a discussion with a low information type person. Re branding Fair Tax and proper messaging to make it the Billionaire Tax could maybe get it passed in version two. But not this year.
- Give Us Barabbas - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 1:37 pm:
Fair tax could make a comeback, but not this year. Madigan is gone as the bogeyman and Ken Griffin moved to Florida. The next two years are going to hit middle and lower class voters pretty hard, and if you focus their anger against billionaires and you rebrand the fair tax as the billionaire tax, it might ride the zeitgeist into passage. But you have to start that drumbeat soon if you are going to go for it.
- @misterjayem - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 1:44 pm:
“focus more on maximizing the existing resources to help those in need who are residents of the state”
Under the law, immigrants who are domiciled in Illinois are Illinois residents.
And Illinois taxpayers.
– MrJM
- Pundent - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 2:16 pm:
=The graduated Fair Tax is something that would take a steady, multi year effort to get passed.=
The takeaway for me from the fair tax wasn’t how hard it was to get passed, but how easy it was to defeat. Part of that was the lack of clarity in how the revenue would be used. But there are now a whole bunch of progressive ideas that have been floated since then that would make it even easier to defeat. And you can start with the problems and solutions emanating from the city of Chicago.
- 0.0 - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 2:57 pm:
I don’t think there is a dispute as to the fact that there is a deficit for the following fiscal year. I don’t think that revenue enhancements are realistic in this economic climate. To this end, I am wondering what those who support keeping the health insurance benefits for undocumented immigrants think should be the first program/expenditure that should be cut to help balance the budget?
- Dirty Red - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 3:53 pm:
= First of all, the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget is paid to be professionally pessimistic. Even the governor has decided that they are not always right. =
What the actual banishment-hammer-of-death-provoking-comment nonsense is this, sir?
GOMB is paid to provide apolitical budget counsel and administration to the Governor and their code agencies. Their traditionally conservative revenue estimates keep us away from the days when we were using phony numbers and racking up multi-billion dollar payables backlogs. If you want to hang your hat on, “they are not always right,” then I have a two-year pension holiday plan to sell you.
The Governor has thrown shade at his own budget advisers, which will be his own undoing. The budget director has NOT been wrong when she advises the Governor’s Office about obligations needing fewer obligations or new revenues to cover non-discretionary spending. The budget director was also not wrong in the economic report that the deputy governor referenced in his memo to the agencies regarding FY26 budget requests.
The Governor’s dismissal this past spring of revenue concerns also outlined by COGFA will come back to haunt this administration plenty even without the Senate President’s help….all the more ironic, because the Governor will need the Senate President to whip votes for new revenues this coming spring to pass a public transit system bailout, medical reforms, and an operating budget.
Even analysts outside of COGFA and GOMB believe there will be a deficit, and they tell me the $3.1 billion figure is LOW compared to what we will actually need to cover.
- 32nd Ward - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 3:57 pm:
You can’t call the Fair Tax the “Billionaire Tax” when it would impact people making $250k.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 3:58 pm:
=I am wondering what those who support keeping the health insurance benefits for undocumented immigrants think should be the first program/expenditure that should be cut to help balance the budget?=
We don’t turn people away at hospitals. The reality is that an immigrant living in the state will use the healthcare system. It will either happen efficiently or inefficiently. This idea that there are savings to recoup is misguided at best. And minimizing treatable illness in our communities is in our collective personal and financial health.
- Dirty Red - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 4:14 pm:
= Agencies with federal matching funds will likely not be cut, and may even see an increase of it would capture a lot more federal funding. =
Assuming the federal match is even still available or as generous. Rolling back MAGI Medicaid would blow a massive hole in federal receipts.
- Dirty Red - Wednesday, Dec 11, 24 @ 6:42 pm:
Missed this bit earlier…
= Well, we’re going to first of all get together with our respective caucuses… =
Caucuses. Plural. Sign of the times.