Today’s must-read
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Pearson…
Donald Trump’s Nov. 5 loss in Illinois was a foregone conclusion, allowing leading Illinois Democrats to focus on the nearby swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan in an ultimately unsuccessful effort to advance Kamala Harris’ bid for the presidency.
But a closer look at the presidential election results in Illinois shows that a significant number of the state’s Democratic voters also had their focus elsewhere — though not on Trump.
While Trump closed the gap in Illinois on a percentage basis compared with his last two runs for president, it wasn’t because he won over large numbers of Democratic voters. His ostensibly improved showing came about in in large part because Harris received nearly 410,000 fewer votes in Illinois than Joe Biden got in defeating Trump four years earlier, according to election results that were certified earlier this month.
Illinois Republicans, who have repeatedly been touting the November results as a sign of growing momentum for their beleaguered party, have been promoting largely illusory gains. Trump’s vote total increased by a mere 2,188 votes from 2020, with a notable decline for the president-elect in downstate counties that have become the GOP’s geographic base.
Go read the rest. Lots of stuff in there.
* To add a bit to the above story, Trump received 20.56% of the vote in Chicago this year. The last time a statewide Republican received more than 20 percent in Chicago was in 2014, when Bruce Rauner defeated Gov. Pat Quinn. This year’s result received a lot of attention, but Rauner received 20.63%, which was slightly ahead of Trump’s percent. Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka took 25 percent in the city that year.
So, why did Trump not do nearly as well as Rauner statewide? Trump got thumped in the suburbs. Rauner received 45 percent of suburban Cook County’s vote in 2014, while Trump got 35.7 percent this year (a three-point increase from 2020).
Trump lost DuPage County by 13 points, Rauner won the county by 37 points. Four years later, Rauner lost the county to JB Pritzker by two points. Pritzker won it in 2022 by 15 points.
The only way for Republicans to reverse their statewide problem is by winning some suburban counties.
…Adding… I posted this in comments, but it’s something else to keep in mind…
Ronald Reagan got 40 percent of the vote in all of Cook County in 1980, then got 48.4 percent in 1984. We heard lots of realignment talk back then. But by 1992, Bill Clinton took the county with 58 percent.
You’re gonna need more than one race to prove a massive trend.
- Demoralized - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 11:26 am:
==The only way for Republicans to reverse their statewide problem is by winning some suburban counties.==
They aren’t going to do that as long as they keep pushing extreme social policies.
- JS Mill - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 11:28 am:
=Illinois Republicans, who have repeatedly been touting the November results as a sign of growing momentum=
How many ILGA or statewide seats have they picked up in the last two election cycles?
- randem - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 11:30 am:
Biden garnered 40,000 more votes in DuPage County than Harris. That is equivalent to an entire town.
- ZC - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 11:33 am:
Yes. By my tally Trump got about 37.7% of the vote in Lake County in 2020. In 2024 he got 39.4% .
And now good luck to Republicans winning some suburban counties while Trump is the “GOP brand” for the next years and local news is dying, framing everything increasingly in a nationalistic perspective.
I suppose the GOP could get “lucky” and IL could go into a major economic down-spiral. And governor is the one office where candidates can clearly run against their state’s partisan lean to some extent. If the GOP could rally around a more independent-looking, non-MAGA nominee, they might have a shot, especially if Pritzker steps down to run in 2028.
- @misterjayem - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 11:38 am:
“The only way for Republicans to reverse their statewide problem is by winning some suburban counties.”
And conducting a culture war against Downers Grove’s library isn’t a winning suburban strategy.
– MrJM
- BC - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 11:43 am:
The dramatic drop-off in Dem votes is surprising in the context of polling from before Election Day which showed Democratic enthusiasm was high (granted, those were national polls.)
That might indicate high-propensity Democratic voters (those who show up every Election Day no matter what) were fired-up about Harris, but low propensity Dems and low propensity swing voters were not.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 11:45 am:
==touting the November results as a sign of growing momentum==
They also like to claim he has a mandate when he couldn’t hit 50 percent.
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:02 pm:
=And conducting a culture war against Downers Grove’s library isn’t a winning suburban strategy=
Downers Grove elected officials work under the non-partisan council-manager form of government. The current Mayor seems to avoid partisan issues and his candidate Q and A seems very middle-of-the-road
https://www.dailyherald.com/20190311/news/bob-barnett-candidate-profile/
- Frida's Boss - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:19 pm:
The GOP needs to focus strictly on the economy. According to the AP, it was the number one issue in every state, including Illinois.
I agree with Mr. JM that going after Library policies will not increase GOP victories in the collars.
- 32nd Ward - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:29 pm:
It’s not the only way. The way forward is continuing to make massive gains with Hispanic and Asian voters. By 2030, the city will be dominated by the Latino vote; likely around 40%. Add in 10% in the Asian cluster and you have solid support in Cook county.
By 2028, a majority of Latinos and Asians will vote republican. If you told that to someone in 2016, they would have had you committed. Demographics are destiny. Just not the destiny people thought.
- ItsMillerTime - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:30 pm:
The big question for me is how close Dems can get to Biden’s 2020 numbers moving forward. Considering in 2020 everyone was stuck at home, upset about COVID, and vote by mail was being pushed hard I don’t think it’s realistic to get Biden’s numbers again. But even gaining an additional 100k votes would improve be a big improvement. But Trump can’t run again unless something changes and who knows if the next Republican can get the same support.
- Jerry - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:43 pm:
Republicans and their social justice cultural wars not winning issues. And neither are their economic proposals…for instance tax increases of 60% (tariffs are taxes, and they’re going up!)
- H-W - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:44 pm:
I looked up and found these numbers a few weeks ago, which led to to post at the time, the Harris loss was the result of Democrats abandoning their candidate, who is also a woman of color. That last clause is certainly troubling to read. It is also factual. The degree to which the intersection of gender and ethnicity influenced some democratic voters (even a relative few) to not vote is not determined. But to deny that “a women of color running for president” may have led some democratic voters to more easily buy into the false narratives on the other side is certainly worth considering. It certainly works on the other side of the aisle, unabashedly.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:48 pm:
===By 2030, the city will be dominated by the Latino vote; likely around 40%===
Latino population and Latino voters are much different groups.
The 14th Ward, which is 88 percent Latino, saw a turnout of 9,835 in November. The 7th Ward, which is 89 percent Black, saw a turnout of 16,809. The 2nd Ward, which is 73 percent white, saw a turnout of 26,079.
You gotta win the suburbs.
- smile politely - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:53 pm:
- Jerry - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 12:43 pm:
Republicans and their social justice cultural wars not winning issues. And neither are their economic proposals…for instance tax increases of 60% (tariffs are taxes, and they’re going up
Yet Trump won in part due to those issues. Even James Carville says that.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 1:02 pm:
===The way forward is continuing to make massive gains===
Ronald Reagan got 40 percent of the vote in all of Cook County in 1980, then got 48.4 percent in 1984. We heard lots of realignment talk back then. But by 1992, Bill Clinton took the county with 58 percent.
You’re just gonna need more than one race to prove a massive trend.
- Levois - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 1:16 pm:
I saw the numbers in Illinois and how Trump made some gains although he of course still lost. I’d think Republicans could build on these results which would be smart.
- ArchPundit - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 1:40 pm:
===By 2028, a majority of Latinos and Asians will vote republican.
You are extrapolating a trend from a data point in regards to Asian voters. Trends need two elections to, you know, be a trend. And even then, that’s not much of a trend. There has been increases in Latinos voting Republican since 2012 but that is from a historic low. Could it happen? Sure, but more likely what we saw was depressed turnout by Democratic leaners due to frustration over inflation and Latino vote percentages were affected as were most other groups.
Trump is his own phenomenon and he doesn’t carry over much to the Republican party. Rs do poorly when he’s not on the ballot and this year we even saw drop off for US Senate races where people just didn’t vote instead of voting R.
Latino voters aren’t like African-American voters in that Latinos have varied greatly over time in terms of party vote, but AAs have been fairly consistent.
- Jerry - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 2:17 pm:
@smile politically…that individual is a charismatic figure, he also lies like some people breathe. VanceCare cuts are going to be devastating in those areas.
Its also Democrats need to get better at communicating. It cuts alot of ways.
- ZC - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 2:45 pm:
I think one lesson from 2020-2024 is for everyone to stop talking about a “Latino / Hispanic vote.” There is so much variety under that label. Maybe that’s one takeaway - the party that gets more enamored of winning an abstract “Latino vote,” Dem or GOP, is gonna be in more trouble actually messaging to and winning the many distinctive groups that label encompasses.
- Anonymous - Monday, Dec 16, 24 @ 4:29 pm:
Glad to see you calling the Hispanic community by their preference of Latino instead of the social justice warrior preferred Latinx