* From the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s monthly report…

Year to Date

With January’s overall decline of $35 million, the year-to-date General Funds total through the first seven months of the year is identical to last year at $29.505 billion. This total includes transactions the Commission has classified as “one-time” revenues including $633 million in Federal matching dollars in FY 2024; a total of $248 million in transfers from excess P.A. 102-700 funds in FY 2024; and $65 million in Federal Stimulus funds that trickled into FY 2025. Excluding these “one-time” revenues, Base revenues are a respectable $816 million or +2.8% above last year’s levels through January.

Revenues from the Personal Income Tax are now $1.293 billion or +8.2% above last year’s levels through January. On a net basis, the gains are slightly weaker at $1.099 billion. While the Personal Income Tax continues to perform well, Corporate Income Tax receipts continue to struggle. These receipts are now down $477 million through January – a decline of -14.1%. On a net basis, the falloff only improves slightly to -$383 million. These important revenue sources will be watched closely as we enter into the revenue-heavy final tax payment period in the upcoming months.

Sales Tax gross receipts are now down $71 or -1.0% through January. However, on a net basis, this seven-month comparison improves to a small gain of $40 million or +0.6% when accounting for non-General Funds distributions.

In the category of All Other State Sources, revenues are now collectively up $188 million or +9.4% through January. Continuing to lead this category of revenues is Interest on State Funds & Investments, which is now $88 million higher year to date. Other increases have come from Insurance Taxes and Fees [+$77 million]; Public Utility Taxes [+$22 million]; and Other Sources [+$35 million]. These gains have offset year-to-date declines in the Estate Tax [-$26 million]; the Corporate Franchise Tax [-$4 million]; the Cigarette Tax [-$3 million]; and the Liquor Tax [-$1 million].

Transfers In are now $287 million behind last year’s seven-month totals when including January’s declines. The main reason for this is because the Income Tax Refund Fund Transfer in FY 2025 was $302 million less than the FY 2024 amount. Lottery Transfers [-$55 million] and Other Transfers [-$30 million] also continue to trail last year’s pace. These declines have offset the $20 million rise in casino-related Gaming Transfers; the $2 million increase in Cannabis Transfers, and the $78 million in new revenues from the Sports Wagering Transfer. Again, the Commission does not include in its comparison $248 million in FY 2024 transfers received from excess P.A. 102-700 funding. These amounts are shown at the bottom of the accompanying tables as part of non-base receipts.

When including January’s growth, base Federal Sources are now $160 million or +6.7% above last year’s levels. However, if including the $633 million in one-time federal matching dollars received in FY 2024 and the $65 million in ARPA funds received this fiscal year, overall federal receipts are a combined $408 million behind last year’s levels through January