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Poll unsurprisingly finds Trump/Musk and their actions unpopular in Illinois, except for a close division on immigration
Tuesday, Feb 18, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller * 2024 Illinois state Senate candidate Dave Nayak has moved away from the Democratic Party and headed to the right on DEI and immigration issues, among other things, including RFK, Jr. He’s definitely gearing up for something, and he released a new poll today…
Crosstabs are here. * Let’s get to the results. How do you rate President Trump’s job performance so far?…  * Do you approve of President Trump’s decision to rename the “Gulf of Mexico” to the “Gulf of America”?…  * Do you approve of President Trump’s actions regarding undocumented immigrants?…  Latinos approved of Trump’s actions 47-42, which is higher than Black and White respondents. * Which statement most matches your belief on undocumented immigrants: We are a country of laws. The President is correct to enforce those laws. Illegal immigrants divert money away from U.S. citizens and often bring dangerous drugs across the border; We are a nation of immigrants. Trump’s actions are inhumane. He is breaking up families and deporting hard working individuals that the country needs…  Latinos were essentially split on that question, but a higher percentage supported Trump’s position than Black or White respondents. * Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people…  Just by comparison, a 2022 election poll had Pritzker’s fave/unfave at 50/45 after the incumbent had spent a kabillion dollars. So, the 46/44 result here isn’t all that newsy. * Do you approve of the work Elon Musk is doing with the Department of Government Efficiency aka DOGE?…  * Which statement most closely matches your opinion regarding the Department of Government Efficiency aka DOGE: DOGE is unconstitutional. It is cutting funding to important programs that were appropriated by Congress including school lunches and early reading programs; DOGE is necessary. Government is bloated and it is finding a significant amount of waste, fraud, and abuse… 
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- Roadrager - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 12:50 pm:
==Latinos approved of Trump’s actions 47-42, which is higher than Black and White respondents.==
“They won’t come for me; I’m one of the good ones.”
There was a story during the first Trump term about right-win Spanish-language radio in Florida, and how the spiraling conspiratorial stuff on it could make the likes of Shapiro, Limbaugh et al look moderate in comparison. Apparently Univision’s gotten in on the act a bit on the television side, as well.
But yes, I’m sure the administration that is currently going Ctrl-F on “diverse” and “gender” to determine what official materials get banned and destroyed will be dutifully checking its records to make sure no immigrants who are here legally get rounded up off to Gitmo.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 12:53 pm:
the binary questions bother me. Both statements can be true in either DOGE or the immigration item. I understand voters don’t do nuance, but I don’t know that these questions tell us much about where voters are on two complex issues.
- Perrid - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 12:55 pm:
I would have been “unsure” on DOGE just because it’s so vague. Much of the work DOGE is doing, just dismantling large parts of the government, is likely unconstitutional, but that doesn’t mean the President can’t have a group of people trying to audit other agencies.
- @misterjayem - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 12:56 pm:
DOGE is either unconstitutional or it’s not.
No nuance is necessary.
– MrJM
- Notorious JMB - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 12:56 pm:
Unfavorables are a different story, but there’s only a 4 point favorable difference between JB and Trump (just outside the margin of error) and a 3 point between Trump and Harris (just inside the margin of error). Kinda surprising given Illinois’ political climate and if the poll is accurate.
- JB13 - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 12:57 pm:
Hate to break it to all of you fans of democracy here.
But Trump is firmly on the right side of public opinion on immigration.
Resist deportations of criminals at your own peril
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 12:58 pm:
===Unfavorables are a different story===
You cannot ignore that. It’s part of the whole.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 12:59 pm:
===firmly on the right side of public opinion on immigration===
Looks to me like opinion is sharply divided. But you’ll see what you want to see, I suppose.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:03 pm:
Also, I agree with the objections to that odd DOGE questions. Consider it stipulated. Move on to other questions.
- M3 Strategies - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:08 pm:
Happy to answer any specific questions about this poll here, in the comments. Fire away
- 312Lawyer - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:14 pm:
Results as expected. Illinois is uniquely tough for Republicans. But another loss of a seat or two in 2030 mitigates the impact.
I would have loved to see a question on taxes in light of DOGE.
- Lt Guv - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:26 pm:
JB, being on the side of public opinion doesn’t make it right. Popular, sure. Right? That’s a different question.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:30 pm:
=== Popular, sure===
It’s actually not that popular here.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:31 pm:
It is kind of surprising and worrying to me that the unfavorables are not higher. Maybe this comment is no good, but my first thought when I saw DOGE wanted IRS records was maybe they try to put nonsense tax cases on people like Gov. Pritzker.
- Suburban Mom - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:31 pm:
Who are the 30% dinguses who think renaming the Gulf of Mexico is either necessary or important or … useful, I guess?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:31 pm:
People, if you don’t take the time to type in a username, you’re gonna be deleted. Simple as that.
- Brave New World - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 1:38 pm:
==“They won’t come for me; I’m one of the good ones.”==
Wow, another tone deaf, racist speaks up. Latinos don’t approve of illegal immigration and there’s nothing white democrats can say to guilt them into changing on this.
- No Nuance - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 2:12 pm:
Dave lost because he was painted as a fake progressive and now he’s committing to the bit? I don’t get it but good luck to him. He should probably get rid of the Rivian before running for gov.
On the poll: while more Hispanics are leaning right they don’t make up the majority of the Latino voter base. Latinos have also had a turnout problem time and time again. What does it all mean? Who knows, it’ll be a fun year and a half as we ramp up to the 2026 election.
- Lurker - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 2:32 pm:
I would like to see a question on DOGE that says do you believe Musk is stealing government data for personal gain.
Likewise, I’d like a question on do you believe Trump will significantly raise or significantly lower the national debt.
- TJ - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 2:41 pm:
Putting the actual serious matters aside, I really want to know what the opinion is of the folks that support renaming the Gulf of Mexico, and if by chance they keep to the old names on any of the following: Sears Tower, Marshall Field’s, Hancock Center, Comiskey Park II, etc., etc.
- Jerry - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 2:43 pm:
DOGggiE is Unconstitutional unless Congress, the branch of government that can create “it”, has passed a law to do so.
- Original Rambler - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 2:57 pm:
Having taken the poll, the choice of two extremes on the questions made it very difficult. Not sure that you can take a whole lot from these results. Look at the DOGE binary. The choices are “necessary” or “unconstitutional.” If that’s what you are trying to gauge, do a 4 part question: necessary and constitutional, unnecessary and unconstitutional, unnecessary but constitutional, or necessary but unconstitutional.
Trump’s favorable numbers exceeded what I would have thought. Way closer to JB’s numbers that I expected (and JB’s were lower than I thought he would get).
JB13, I doubt anyone has any issue with deporting criminals. Trump’s overreaching and throwing a net around both law breaking and law abiding immigrants is what is objectionable. Unless you are in favor of law abiding legal immigrants being deported also. Which would say a lot about you.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 3:07 pm:
===If that’s what you are trying to gauge===
Again, move on.
- pc - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 3:22 pm:
Musk and Doge are running 3 to 6 points behind Trump’s favorables, and 7-10 points behind the 46 percent who approve of Trump’s immigration position. To me, that suggests that centering Musk/Doge may turn out to be a big mistake by Trump that Dems could take advantage of.
- SweetLou86 - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 3:36 pm:
Was there any attempt to break down the Latinos polled by origin? Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Venezuelans and Cubans (just to start) all have very different views and relationships to the immigration system.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 3:45 pm:
===Was there any attempt===
I linked to the xtabs. You coulda just clicked it.
- Sue - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 4:42 pm:
Illinois is in the minority in terms of where the Country is on most of the so called controversies- unfortunately
Progressives just don’t understand that it wasn’t a message problem in 2024 but a policy problem- and just think by 2030 the WH
May no longer be a possibilty for a Democrat given the electoral college changes precisely why progressives want to amend the constitution- good luck with that as well as DC statehood
- Tired of the Mess - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 4:50 pm:
750 is quite the small sample size for such issues. Like it or not, an administration can, and has, used “research” groups to review government operations for decades. None have teeth, outside of the opportunity to audit with the parameters (wide or narrow) granted to them for the sake of the review.
- Just a Random Guy - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 5:00 pm:
==don’t understand that it wasn’t a message problem in 2024 but a policy problem==
Agree… and if the Democratic Party leaders don’t figure that out soon, they will be a super minority for quite some time.
- Whimper - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 5:24 pm:
Doge claims they have identified 50 billion in fraud already. Even if that’s half accurate, how is it bad for Illinois?
- Mason County - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 5:27 pm:
Yes, this is a very Blue State. So nor surprise. But good data, which I always like.
- Whimper - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 5:28 pm:
How is it bad for DOGE to identify a claimed 50 billion in fraud/unnecessary spending? Even if their claim is half accurate, how is that bad for Illinois?
- Whimper - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 5:29 pm:
Sorry. Newbie here
- Excitable Boy - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 5:41 pm:
- Doge claims they have identified 50 billion in fraud already. Even if that’s half accurate, how is it bad for Illinois? -
Do you believe anyone that tells you what they’re looking at is fraud? They’re not showing any evidence, and they’re ignoring the constitution.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 5:48 pm:
==in terms of where the Country is==
@Sue - Donald Trump got 77 million votes. Kamala Harris got 75 million. I don’t think I’d be making proclamations on “where the country is” because you’re wrong.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 5:50 pm:
==How is it bad for DOGE to identify a claimed 50 billion in fraud/unnecessary spending? ==
A. I don’t believe it.
B. They’ve done some “savings” through a slash and burn and that is a despicable approach.
C. DOGE is antithetical to the Constitution
- LA Doger - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 9:49 pm:
The democratic message to oppose fraud, waste, and abuse spending by federal agencies doesn’t seem like a winner.
government agencies is not a very smart
- Huh? - Tuesday, Feb 18, 25 @ 11:29 pm:
“Doge claims they have identified 50 billion in fraud already.”
What is their definition of “fraud”?
From the outside, their definition of “fraud” appears to be “I disagree how the federal government spends money.” Tramp, musk, and their ilk have determined that government spending, and employment are to be cut arbitrarily. It doesn’t matter who they hurt. As long as their wealth donors get their tax cuts and the lower and middle class get fxxxxd.
From the outside, it appears DOGE, the republican’t party, and tramp are doing everything them can to hurt the the American public, damage in diplomatic image of the US in the eyes of the world, and cozy up to the historical foes of the American way of life.
What is the most worrisome is the republican’t party is standing on the sidelines cheering. Meanwhile, the democrats are floundering about, trying to figure out how to oppose tramp and his ilk.