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Poll: Mayor Johnson’s re-elect in crowded field is 8 percent; Just 7 percent view him favorably, 80 percent unfavorably (Updated)
Monday, Feb 24, 2025 - Posted by Isabel Miller * M3 Strategies is a Republican pollster, but they’ve done pretty good work. The firm’s last poll had President Trump’s favorables right about where the Pritzker campaign did in its most recent release, for example. The poll was paid for by Juan Rangel, who regularly engages in battle with the CTU and the mayor’s people on Twitter. From the pollster’s latest analysis of its Chicago survey…
* Methodology…
* On to the toplines. Which of the following would you say are the biggest issues facing Chicago right now?…  Crime is a much bigger issue in Chicago than it is statewide and has been for quite a while. * If the election for Mayor of Chicago were held today, who would most likely lean toward (if undecided is not an option)?…
* What is your opinion of the following Chicago public figures?…
* Alexi Giannoulias, IL Sec of State…
* Susana Mendoza, IL Comptroller…
* Bill Conway, Alderman…
* Kam Buckner, State Rep…
* Paul Vallas, Former Mayoral Candidate…
* Brandon Johnson, Mayor…
Whew. That’s gotta be some kind of a record. * In your own words, tell us your opinion of Mayor Brandon Johnson…
* In your own words, tell us your opinion of former mayoral candidate Paul Vallas…
* In your own words, tell us your opinion of IL Comptroller Susana Mendoza…
* In your own words, tell us your opinion of IL Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias…
Haven’t seen those word clouds used in a while. Interesting. …Adding… I took a quick look at the full crosstabs. Mayor Johnson’s favorable/unfavorable rating among Black voters is 16/67, with 17 percent neutral. Among Latino voters it’s 2/88 (not a typo) with 10 percent neutral. Among White voters it’s 5/84 (also not a typo) with 10 percent neutral. Johnson receives 18 percent support from Black voters in the horse race question, along with 2 percent Latino, 6 percent White.
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- Steve - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:41 pm:
It’s impressive that Paul Vallas is doing so well. I really didn’t think Mayor Johnson would be doing so bad. But, here we are. I don’t know how Johnson can dig out from a hole like this. Johnson low numbers suggest the base he had isn’t there anymore. Chicago might be getting a Greek Mayor .
- Oklahoma - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:42 pm:
I think that is even lower than Blago’s record low post arrest.
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:46 pm:
===Vallas (27.4%)===
History has shown that Paul Vallas is most popular when he isn’t doing anything and isn’t running for office.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:47 pm:
===even lower than Blago’s record low===
Trib tested job approval, not favorables, and found that to be 13/71.
Also, that poll found three quarters didn’t want him to run for a third term.
https://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/clout_st/2008/10/tribune-poll-bl.html
- Sue - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:51 pm:
Unfortunately- the mayor is likely going to be able to stick Chicago with an expensive long term CTU contract - the only reason he was elected and taxpayers will suffer for many years to come no matter who is elected next
- TNR - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:52 pm:
Based on other recent polling, it’s fair to say Trump is more popular in Chicago than Brandon, by a somewhat comfortable margin.
And Juan Rangel can’t be too thrilled with how “school choice” is polling.
- Chicago Voter - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:54 pm:
I think Chicago might be doing worse if Vallas had been elected mayor.
I agree with Candy Dogwood. He may be popular now because we aren’t hearing from him. His I’m the smartest person in the room attitude lost me years ago.
- Gravitas - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:58 pm:
Paul Vallas led the field in February of 2023, but Brandon Johnson prevailed in the April run-off. Allegedly, Vallas relied upon too many consultants and their GOTV efforts in April flopped.
It is hard to see Vallas as the “Comeback Kid.” He seems to specialize in “moral victories.” Voters are left to ponder “What if Vallas had beaten Blagojevich in the primary?” or “What if Vallas had beaten Johnson in 2023?”
Maybe it is time for a new candidate.
- Squib Kick - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 12:58 pm:
– 79.9% of voters disapprove of Johnson, with just 6.6% holding a favorable view –
Someone Still Loves You Brandon Johnson
- Lurker - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:05 pm:
I’m surprised Mendoza has so many neutral and not as much favorable as I think she deserves. I think she’d be a good mayor.
- ChicagoBars - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:12 pm:
People are really going to make me dust off my “I’m term limited by age” winter 2023 Paul Vallas sound bites aren’t they?
- Rudy’s teeth - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:16 pm:
MBJ’s habit of soiling the sheets is reflected in the poll shown in the post. Tooling around town with an entourage has not helped his image. His lack of experience and thin resume were never a fit for the fifth floor.
- City Zen - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:18 pm:
Kam Buckner still an unknown despite running for mayor last cycle. He hasn’t been able to get any sort of traction outside the transit stans.
Vallas having the word “better” more prominent than “good” sounds about right. The bar is that low.
Johnson’s most prominent word is “head” because the most common response was “in way over his head”
- Laflin - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:19 pm:
Don’t show this to Vallas. He might decide to run again and we can’t have that.
Don’t believe he would have been worse than Brandon. He would have been planning the 2025 budget the moment he was sworn in back in 2023. But he choked.
Gravitas is right. He’s like Jim Kelly and the Buffalo Bills once upon a time.
- NIU Grad - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:22 pm:
My takeaways:
-Vallas better not be getting his “run for something” itch right now.
-Mendoza is steering into the crime/public safety issues, but is taking positions on issues that will likely turn off more voters than she gains in the future.
-Alexei isn’t steering into anything. He was able to win SoS without any substance, but his Senate run was defined by not taking a significant stand on anything (which the voters seemed to have noticed). Running for mayor is a different ballgame.
-If CTU doubles down on funding his campaign, it’s a clear sign that they’re living in a bubble.
- Leap Day William - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:25 pm:
Not a city resident anymore so this definitely isn’t my circus. From the outside, this is giving “what if Alderman Gayle of the 51st ward from ‘South Side’ got elected mayor” vibes.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:28 pm:
Bottom line - if this holds and I can’t suspect it won’t - CTU and DSA will be very toxic for their alders that stick with MBJ.
Antisemitism, race baiting, division, passing the buck and taxing every nickel and dime while ignoring crime DOES NOT PAY.
- Arsenal - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:36 pm:
==I think Chicago might be doing worse if Vallas had been elected mayor.==
Probably, but he’d be more popular.
Of course, there’s a lot of room to be more popular than MBJ while still being unpopular in absolute terms.
- Yinka - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:42 pm:
Johnson will probably run again even if he has no chance, but Vallas has only gone more obviously farther right since the election, he’d lose again, it’ll be even easier to paint him as someone who’s gone wacko right wing and he’d be running while the wacko right drives the nation into a ditch.
Mendoza seems like she’d be a perfectly cromulent mayor. Cromulence and not alienating everyone, rather than “actively harmful” like someone like Vallas or “completely incompetent boob” like Johnson would be a nice change.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:43 pm:
It seems the voting public has as much respect for Mayor Johnson as Mayor Johnson has for the voting public.
- DuPage Saint - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:49 pm:
What about Bob Fioretti or William Daley gosh can’t there be new blood? Vallas , really?
- Oklahoma - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:52 pm:
Rich, that was pre-arrest. I think his record low was post arrest.
- Not Surprised - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:53 pm:
A criticism I have heard from Hispanic leaders is that the mayor has not shown up for their community like he has for the Black community. Minus visits to his Hispanic allies’ wards, the mayor has not had major announcements that would benefit Hispanics. Combine that with a messy migrant response that upset both the left and right, this is not surprising.
Two questions emerge: 1) does the mayor have enough time to turn things around and 2) does the mayor want to or believe he has to turn things around?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 1:58 pm:
===I think his record low was post arrest. ===
Yeah, but, I mean, he had been arrested. Nobody’s claimed Johnson broke any laws… yet.
- Paddyrollingstone - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 2:01 pm:
Until today, I never actually laughed out loud as much as I did when I read this:
Among Latino voters it’s 2/88 (not a typo)
Hysterical.
- Center Drift - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 2:09 pm:
My first thought is you have to be crazy to want this job. Between the city council, the CTU and all the other special interests bringing people together seems impossible. The winner will need to help people face the reality of the city and the challenges it faces. Economic, educational, business, safety, transportation and more. It will take someone who can positively convey that the time of patronage is over. That everyone needs to pull their weight and that crime cannot be controlling for how people live their lives. That the school system must be right-sized and city resources used effectively. Unless we all pull together we’ll get nowhere.
- Colin O'Scopy - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 2:19 pm:
What this poll fails to point out is that Paul Vallas’ biggest threat is Paul Vallas.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 2:42 pm:
Vallas has said he is not running. I wonder if Rangel included him as a troll because MBJ and CTU are so absolutely paranoid about Vallas.
- Amalia - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 2:47 pm:
Ironically the crime status is gonna get better with the new Cook County State’s Attorney’s follow the law approach. However, don’t think this will help with the view of the Chicago Mayor. As soon as the City Council makes the mistake of voting for his bond matter the fiscal analysis will ramp up fiscal anger at him.
- Gravitas - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 2:50 pm:
It is only going to get worse. Mayor Brandon Johnson is due to appear at a Congressional hearing on immigration during the first week of March. Get your popcorn.
- BigLou - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 2:59 pm:
Alexi benefited from running in a re-districting year so no one of any real substance ran against him for fear of giving up their seat.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Monday, Feb 24, 25 @ 3:31 pm:
Vallas would be mayor now but for his connections to the MAGA crowd. I don’t see that voters would be more forgiving given another run.