*** UPDATE - April 24 *** I tried for days to ascertain the name of the polling firm which conducted this alleged survey. 314 Action Fund has ignored repeated emails and tweets. I called and was told a spokesperson would return my call and that hasn’t yet happened.
This is a very simple, basic question: Who conducted your poll? Unless and until I receive an answer, I’m retracting this post. Sorry. I should’ve asked the question at the very beginning.
* Sen. Dick Durbin said in late March that he plans to make a reelection announcement “soon.” NBC’s Mary Ann Ahern…
The primary is a long way away, but Sen. Durbin remains stubbornly in place. Somebody may probably need to nudge him aside, but possible successors are all obviously wary of confronting him. Still, the person who strikes first could reap the rewards of early small-dollar contributions. Underwood appears to be trying to have it both ways for now.
* Press release…
A new poll commissioned by 314 Action Fund shows that Representative Lauren Underwood (IL-14), a nurse and public health expert, leads the Illinois Senate ballot in every test, should Senator Dick Durbin retire. In a potential four-way race, a three-way race, and after introducing each candidate’s biography, Representative Underwood stood above the rest to Illinois voters.
“Senator Dick Durbin has been an unrivaled champion for Illinois who has worked tirelessly to deliver for the state and has earned the right to decide what is best for himself, his family, and the future of the state,” said Erik Polyak, Managing Director of 314 Action. “Should he decide not to run for reelection, it’s clear Illinois is ready for a new generation of leadership and we are excited by the possibilities.”
Other key findings include:
• In the initial 4-way ballot, Representative Underwood and Representative Krishnamoorthi are statistically tied with 33% and 30%, respectively, followed by 16% for Lieutenant Governor Stratton and 10% for Representative Kelly. The remaining 10% are undecided.
o If Representative Kelly was not to run, Representative Underwood picks up the most of her voters, with 45% of her voters moving to Underwood.
• In the 3-way ballot, Representative Underwood leads by 7 points – 39% to 32% for Krishnamoorthi, and 19% for Stratton.
• After providing voters with more information about each of the candidates, pulling from bio information each candidate has used, Representative Underwood extends her lead in the 4-way ballot, with 42% of the vote, followed by Representative. Krishnamoorthi at 25%, Stratton at 19%, 9% supporting Kelly, and 4% are undecided.
• Representative Underwood has the highest name ID of the field - 77% of primary voters identify her by name, 57% know her well enough to offer an opinion of her, and those opinions are almost entirely positive – 53% favorable, 4% unfavorable, 20% neutral.
This poll surveyed 773 likely 2026 Democratic primary voters in Illinois from March 24-27, 2026. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ±3.53% for the full sample.
* Keep in mind that Underwood is a nurse, so this all has the look of being coordinated, whether it is or not…
314 Action Fund is the only national organization working to elect Democrats with backgrounds in science and medicine across all levels of government—from the Senate down to local school boards. The organization is powered by a grassroots community of over six million people supporting scientists, doctors, and STEM professionals who will use science and facts to address our most pressing issues like climate change and health care.
A far more interesting result would’ve been head-to-heads against Durbin.
- NIU Grad - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 12:42 pm:
Added risk: Coming out early against him could force him to stubbornly stay put, if he doesn’t think his chosen successor (Raja) can win. It could also cause his team to start lashing out at a sitting Illinois congresswoman during a time when the party is divided enough…
At the end of the day, this is on Durbin to clear up the uncertainty as soon as possible.
- 4 eyes - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 12:42 pm:
I got this poll (or one very similar to it) that had an entire section testing negatives against Casten.
- Beep booop - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 12:45 pm:
Durbin almost certainly isn’t gonna run. And if he did Underwood certainly wouldn’t run.
- dhb - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 12:51 pm:
“almost certainly” continues to be doing a ton of work here. I personally think the more people show him the door, the more he walks the other way from it.
- TJ - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 12:53 pm:
My money would be on Raja and his war chest to pretty easily win the Dem nomination and then the seat itself should Durbin stand aside. Just hope that that “should” actually does happen. Dick’s way past his prime and clearly not up for what’s needed in actual America.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 12:54 pm:
===the more he walks the other way from it. ===
Which is why I’m curious what the heads to heads are with him.
- Alton Sinkhole - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 1:02 pm:
Has Durbin posted his first quarter fundraising numbers?
I did some Googling and couldn’t find anything, but apologies if my google-fu wasn’t good enough.
- DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 1:13 pm:
I have always thought Raj’s money would scare others away but I am very impressed with Underwood. Was in her district when she first ran and talking about her with voters that certainly are not liberal they find little fault with her. She seems to keep her head down and work. She has made an impression. And this may be my age and implicit racism but I think she would do a heck of a lot better south of 80 than Raj. I know and hope times have changed but remember that guy that became Stevenson running mate lots of people thought that was because of his name.
- Beep booop - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 1:14 pm:
Does anyone outside of the political chattering class (of which I consider myself a proud member) know who Raja is? And yes I get it, lots of money. But Stratton will have lots of money. And Underwood is no wall flower.
If I’m Raja I’m praying for a race against Stratton AND Underwood though
- Jeb - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 1:25 pm:
You can’t buy a personality with $20 million.
- hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 1:26 pm:
Don’t care about Durbin’s ego or legacy or vanity or stubborn personality.
Don’t care who Durbin wants as successor.
Don’t buy the notion that Durbin is so beloved that actual Dem primary voters would punish a candidate for announcing a run against a guy who would be 88 years old at the end of another term.
Dick, you will have spent 44 years in D.C. as of the end of your current term. This is as long or longer than approximately 58% of your consituents have been alive.
Enough is enough.
- H-W - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 1:41 pm:
At the very least, it does appear to be coordinated by 314 Action Fund. Whether or not Underwood is a party to the survey, it can’t help but get her name out further.
Nurses are scientists (BSN), which would be a good change of pace from philosophers (JD) regulating the government.
- Product of the '60's - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 1:45 pm:
A bit surprised by Underwood’s polling. As a DuPage county resident in Casten’s district, I hear/see Raja at least once a week….almost weekly on WGN radio, on national news, even have seen him on the BBC news on PBS….Underwood to me is silent/absent, similar to Casten. To me, Raja makes a strong presence, comes across as looking out for me.
- Lakeview Looker - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 1:46 pm:
In my humble opinion, Lauren would make a fantastic US Senator. Raja has been gearing up for this race for years but has the baggage of being a mean boss (look up @dear_white_staffers on instagram and check out the Illinois story highlights) and appearing as someone only out to further his own political credentials.
Also a controversial take, but if Durbin runs again, he should be primaried. Get him out. His time is over.
- John Lopez - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 2:01 pm:
Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi & his $19 million war chest raised under FEC rules puts him in frontrunner status in spite of the push polling for Congresswomen Lauren Underwood & Robin Kelly. Lieutenant Governor Julianna Stratton would be starting from scratch in Federal fundraising.
- Remember the Alamo II - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 2:14 pm:
=== I got this poll (or one very similar to it) that had an entire section testing negatives against Casten. ===
That is interesting. Wonder if that is coming from the right or from the left.
- Socially DIstant Watcher - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 2:16 pm:
==not a nurse==
Wow, that still stings, huh? It’s been a while. Get over it.
- Bob - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 2:46 pm:
I would literally vote for a goldfish over Durbin at this point. At least there’s only so much a goldfish could do to sell us out.
- Yep - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 3:07 pm:
Underwood exaggerated her nursing background.
- Morty - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 3:12 pm:
Durbin has been underwhelming in the extreme, imo,. I’d like see if some new blood would do better. Tammt Duvkworth has been much better.
- Sarah A. - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 3:21 pm:
Let’s be clear: nearly every Democratic incumbent is facing a primary challenge this cycle—a reflection of deep voter frustration, including within the party itself. This level of disruption is unprecedented, and traditional front-runners may struggle to maintain their footing, particularly as economic uncertainty looms.
In this context, candidates who have previously been overlooked or underestimated may now have a real opportunity to break through. That’s why Robin Kelly should not be underestimated. She is widely respected, has earned significant credibility, and holds the support of the entire Congressional Black Caucus. Her strong relationships with leaders like Vice President Kamala Harris and House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries further underscore her influence.
Robin Kelly has been the underdog before—and she won. If there were ever a moment for someone like her to rise, it’s now.
- Leatherneck - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 3:27 pm:
Raja also grew up in Peoria and an alum of Richwoods HS.
- Rose - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 3:48 pm:
I have worked with Underwood and Raja and they are worlds apart in my eyes. Underwood is cold and not good interacting with people at all. She only turns it on in front of camera. Something I watched happen, when on a visit. I work in healthcare and don’t like that she portrays herself as a nurse. Raja gets my vote.
- DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 3:48 pm:
Underwood’s nursing background whatever exaggeration were made were we’re put out there her first time running and she beat Randy Hultgren without much problem
And she seems to be doing well in Congress even though she is the only member to have even slightly exaggerated her CV. /S
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 4:03 pm:
===A far more interesting result would’ve been head-to-heads against Durbin===
A prudent politico would realize that dropping a poll for those numbers can create problems if people find out about it, and create even more problems if one were to tell people about the poll results because it is unlikely that in this climate that the result, even if heavily favoring Senator Durbin, would be as high enough to avoid insult.
- Alton Sinkhole - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 4:22 pm:
@ Rose
If Raja is behind you watching you type that blink twice
- Thomas Paine - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 5:03 pm:
I have no dog in this fight.
But I am frankly shocked that Congresswoman Underwood has a 77% name ID among Democratic primary voters statewide.
I doubt 77% of Democratic primary voters can name our statewide officeholders.
If Underwood is leading this pack, its on her incredible Name ID, and because no one has heard of Raja, Kelly or Stratton. That bodes well for Alexi if he decides to shoot for the US Senate again. Or Mendoza.
- Mike Gascoigne - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 5:43 pm:
Look. I am as Midwestern as anybody. But seriously. Why is politics so nice all the time? We are not playing patty cakes, people. There are lives and livelihoods at stake in these decisions. I say go for the juggular now. He is not right for the job anymore and dragging out his decision is giving diva. Meanwhile he votes to rubber stamp Trump’s budget. Take him out. Stratton does not have the baggage Underwood and Krishnamoorthi have with their problematic votes on Gaza. I would prefer it be her. But we will see.
- Google Is Your Friend - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 7:17 pm:
It’s not just a first-mover advantage for small donors for someone to announce they’re running for the seat now, it’s capturing the anger and angst of everyday Democrats and harnessing it into the fight Democratic voters want to see. At least in polling, the levels of anger against a congressional party were last seen when the Tea Party wave rocked Republicans. If someone had the stones to announce against Durbin now, he’d be toast, but the longer you wait, the longer you give him the ability fortify a defense. Of course, not being proactive and waiting for some magical big break to happen is exactly what’s plaguing congressional Democrats right now.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/03/21/polling-data-democrats-primaries-grassroots-tea-party-00241769
- Jibba - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 8:16 pm:
I’m guessing at least half of Illinois voters don’t know who Underwood is, especially south of I80.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 8:59 pm:
Stratton will likely win the nomination, but Raja will give her a run.
Lauren should stay in the House.
- Occasionally Moderated - Tuesday, Apr 8, 25 @ 9:54 pm:
No idea who Underwood is. Enjoys hearing Raj on the radio, always intelligent. Doubt any of my neighbors know who he is.
- Hank Sauer - Thursday, Apr 24, 25 @ 5:39 pm:
Will Mrs Durbin retire from her lobby job as well?