As I write this column, the spring legislative session is a day away from adjournment. Nothing of great importance has cleared both chambers. So there’s no point in writing about any of that. I’ll let you know my thoughts next week.
Let’s discuss a different topic instead.
For quite a while now, most folks in politics have assumed that Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias and Comptroller Susana Mendoza will probably run for mayor of Chicago in 2027. The incumbent Brandon Johnson is spectacularly unpopular, and a real hunger is developing in the city (again) for new leadership.
Anyway, some wags have also speculated that one or even both of the statewide officials will not run for reelection in order to gear up for a mayoral bid.
With Cook County Democratic Party candidate slating coming up in July, the rumors have intensified.
I bumped into Giannoulias last week at the Statehouse, and we talked about the rumors, and then I asked him if he was running again.
“I’m running for reelection,” Giannoulias bluntly replied. He did not rule out or rule in a run for mayor.
Mendoza’s response was different.
Back in 2018, Mendoza easily won reelection, besting her Republican opponent by 23 percentage points.
But in September of that year, Rahm Emanuel surprised the city’s political world when he announced that he wouldn’t seek a third term. People who hadn’t considered running suddenly changed their plans. Mendoza, in the midst of her first reelection bid, was suddenly on a growing list of possible candidates.
Then, a few days before Election Day, NBC5 Chicago’s Mary Ann Ahern disclosed a draft TV ad by Mendoza announcing her mayoral candidacy.
Mendoza said it was just a contingency in case she decided to run, but she caught a lot of heat. And while it obviously didn’t hurt Mendoza in her statewide bid, it may have damaged her somewhat when she eventually jumped into the mayor’s race. Mendoza didn’t make it past the first round.
So I asked Mendoza’s people if she planned to stand for reelection as comptroller and/or run for mayor.
“Comptroller Mendoza is weighing her options, including reelection,” a spokesperson said. “She loves her job and is committed to public service. She will make her decision based on what is best for Illinois, Chicago and her family.”
Now comes the important part: “She will not run for two offices at the same time. Whatever she decides to run for, she’ll be all-in.”
Asked to clarify that statement (after all, she could run for reelection and then spend a few weeks after the election gathering petition signatures for mayor), I was told it’ll be one race or the other. If she announces for reelection, she won’t run for mayor.
There are those who believe Mendoza may be overthinking the impact of her 2018 back-to-back election experience.
On the other hand, there are those who believe that Giannoulias may not fully appreciate the pressure he’ll be under and the criticism he will face if he runs for reelection and then runs for mayor.
The secretary of state is one of the best jobs in state government. If Giannoulias had hedged about running again, a long line of potential hopefuls would have quickly started forming.
Not as many people are interested in being state comptroller, but if Mendoza decides to skip reelection, the opening will add to the growing turnover in Illinois politics.
U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin’s, D-Ill., retirement announcement has already attracted three incumbent Illinois office holders who want to replace him.
U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly, D-Ill., announced her intention to run, as has U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill.
Those attempts to move up have already attracted several candidates and potential candidates. And many of those folks are elected officials who will either have to give up their current offices to run — creating more down-ballot turbulence — or be replaced by an appointee, who might then have to be replaced, etc.
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has also announced for U.S. Senate. That means Gov. JB Pritzker will have to choose a new running mate. And if chooses someone who is an elected official, then that’ll create more openings down the food chain.
U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., has announced her retirement, and people are lining up to replace her, including Democratic state Sen. Laura Fine, who will have to give up her seat to run.
And there are plenty of rumors that U.S. Rep. Danny Davis, D-Ill., won’t run for reelection.
Next year promises to be a fascinating campaign season.
May 31st next year will fall on a Sunday, so I’m gonna have the same dilemma.
- Leatherneck - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 10:11 am:
Then the next question will be:
Despite his age and despite sitting out 2022, will Pat Quinn actually decide to make at least one more campaign next year? Either an election or a referendum (or both).
- Dupage - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 10:30 am:
Running for Chicago Mayor can be likened to becoming the captain of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.
The mayor has skipped pension payments for police and fire departments and no way to pay again next year. He is dug a deep hole he dug himself into.
- low level - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 10:43 am:
== There are those who believe Mendoza may be overthinking the impact of her 2018 back-to-back election experience.==
I agree. Dont overthink it, Susanna. If you run for re election statewide, people wont hold it against you if you then run for mayor. The only people who pay attention to that stuff are insiders. Its very inside baseball stuff.
- RNUG - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 10:48 am:
Big game of Musical Chairs. As Rich noted, SoS is a plum. job so I would expect Giannoulias to stay put. Can’t even guess about the rest.
- Juvenal - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 10:49 am:
Smart of Mendoza to say she will pick a lane. She is definitely running for mayor, and she knows it.
Foolish of Alexi to not pick a lane. Everyone knows that he is running for mayor. Now, Mendoza and others will beat him over the head for it.
Honestly Kwame is probably the best candidate for Mayor of all of the statewide office holders. I can’t imagine there are many people who believe Alexi will do any better at running Chicago than he did running Broadway Bank. He is basically Rahm-lite without the administrative chops. And it’s not clear how Mendoza will fair in a head-to-head with Vallas. The FOP cannot vote for both of them.
Raoul on the other hand does not have to suck up to Republicans to attract votes or raise money, and as AG he does not have to prove he will defend basic rights or be tough on criminals.
- TJ - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 11:00 am:
Maybe I’m just lazy and don’t have the drive of the folks that actually want high profile gigs, but I just can’t imagine wanting to move on from powerful and less stressful jobs for admittedly more powerful and much higher stress gigs like the major of Chicago.
ILSOS is a very cushy and influential job. I get that being mayor of Chicago is a whole other level of power and influence, but as of late it’s a guaranteed end point for one’s political career (Rahm getting an ambassadorship notwithstanding, that was one of Biden’s more perplexing decisions), as the inherent issues in the city all but guarantee public disdain for the foreseeable future. Johnson is clearly DOA on any ballot same as was the case for Lightfoot, and frankly the same will be the case for if and when Rahm runs for something and hilariously falls apart.
Alexi almost assuredly views an eventual gubernatorial or another senatorial run in his cards if he wants it, and he’s in the exact spot where he needs to be for those to actually be viable in the future.
Mendoza is also in a position where it’s hard to imagine her facing a serious challenge to her getting reelected, and while I don’t view her position as a potential stepping stone in the same fashion as Alexi’s, it at least lets her keep her options open post-Pritzker or down the road in Chicago itself.
- City Zen - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 11:00 am:
No one’s gonna care if Mendoza runs for comptroller then mayor because no one cares about the comptroller anyway.
- Leatherneck - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 11:17 am:
=No one’s gonna care if Mendoza runs for comptroller then mayor because no one cares about the comptroller anyway.=
Then maybe Frerichs could jump in and announce “If I am reelected, I will work to combine Comptroller and Treasurer.”
- low level - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 11:35 am:
Someone please explain the Alexi appeal. I never have been able to stand the guy.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 11:40 am:
Love the phrase “spectacularly unpopular” as it applies to Johnson. Turns out he can unite the people….
- Alton Sinkhole - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 11:55 am:
Mendoza should’ve just owned running for both in 2019, never understood why she didn’t. She was not in jeopardy of losing (as evidenced by her 23% rout).
She eneded up with the worst of both worlds because the video leaked thus revealing her whole “Only running for one office at the same time” schtick to be nothing but a farce.
Just own it, the average municipal election voter is not going to care.
And if she does only run for Mayor and loses then she’s basically done. But then again maybe she wants to be done if she can’t win in 2027.
- BigLou - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 11:56 am:
Come to think of it, for the foreseeable future, the next few mayors are all going to be a one termer with all the issues going on. Come to think of it, for the foreseeable future, the next few mayors are all going to be a one termer with all the issues going on. Just about everyone named for a potential mayoral run are seeking the title and not the hard decisions its going to take to fix the city.
- Leslie K - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 11:58 am:
Re: those saying people wouldn’t care if Mendoza ran for re-election as comptroller and then also for Chicago mayor. I think that would have been true, except now she is on record saying she won’t do both. Starting out her campaign for mayor having already broken a campaign promise is not great.
Although I would vote for Mendoza for mayor, I think I’d rather see her stay at comptroller. She seems to have that office working really well, and the mayoral shot is just too iffy. That said, the Chicago mayoral field looks pretty weak at this point.
- Just Me 2 - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 12:05 pm:
Is it as obvious to everyone else as it is to me that Mendoza leaked her own campaign video to test the water for running for 2 offices at once?
- Old IL Dude - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 12:16 pm:
Question for Rich: Did you ask Alexi why he chose not to run for Durbin’s seat? And also, does that make you think he’s keeping his powder dry as to JB’s announcement for a 3rd term, and if Alexi would then choose to either run for Da Mare or Guv?
- Leatherneck - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 12:26 pm:
Maybe Mendoza could call up Tiffany Henyard for advice on how to campaign for 2 offices at once. s/
- Responsa - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 12:30 pm:
Why is nobody asking the most important question? With Brandon Johnson for all intents and purposes out out of the picture who will CTU support to be the next mayor?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 12:33 pm:
===Why is nobody asking===
Because if he runs again, CTU will support him.
- low level - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 12:36 pm:
== With Brandon Johnson for all intents and purposes out out of the picture ==
No, he will run again w CTU and other progressive support. That said, I dont think he will make the runoff.
- Save Ferris - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 12:42 pm:
@low level
Right with you. Alexi’s background as chief loan officer of his dad’s bank that failed on bad real estate loans and loans to mobsters, loans Alexi said weren’t his fault (might want to see what “chief loan officer’s” job description is), isn’t exactly a trustworthy background.
- Juvenal - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 1:13 pm:
== the next few mayors are all going to be a one termer with all the issues going on ==
That I disagree with. Rahm Emmanuel and Lori Lightfoot were not forced out because of “issues.”
Brandon Johnson is lowering crime, led a successful DNC, and he got a CTU contract done without a strike, and he is sucking wind in the polls not because of big “issues” but because of vibes.
The Gaza Resolution is going to cost the CTU the mayor’s office, I do not think it was worth it.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 1:36 pm:
Mayor Johnson has a few key accomplishments, passing a budget and a decrease in crime. Chicago still wins in most corporate relocations (raw numbers, not per capita). Residents voted their city the most beautiful in a large survey. He must truly be a Democrat, because he thought people would know about them without his messaging about it. He is investing in youth and succeeding, where others are not and want “law and order” aka the same failure.
It’s halftime for the mayor, he needs to seriously evaluate his mistakes and have a great second half of his term. Expecting messaging without working for it is certainly not the way.
- Give Us Barrabbas - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 1:40 pm:
Conventional wisdom is that the SOS job is a prime perch from which to launch a gubernatorial campaign. Moreso back in the days of heavy patronage. I don’t see Alexi making much headway in a mayoral campaign. I can picture Mendoza running for mayor and winning, if she can get the entire Hispanic community behind her. That’s not a guaranteed thing. I can’t vote in Chicago, but I would probably vote for Mendoza for mayor, based on the really great people she has working for her now: I would expect her to bring more of those type of people along with her, and as we’ve seen with mayor Johnson, the people you bring along with you really make a huge difference in how effective you can be.
I also agree that she’s made a great comptroller and could do that job as long as she wants it. I could imagine Andy Manar running to fill the Lieutenant Governor slot as a way to enter the on-deck circle for the next inning after. Frerichs is doing well where he’s at and is safe there. I don’t think he would survive the negative campaigning waiting for him about his social security quote, if he ran for anything else.
- levivotedforjudy - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 1:47 pm:
To some this may be chaotic but I like it. There were a number of great potential candidates who are now in their late 60’s and early 70’s who never had an opportunity because the ones now in their 80’s just wouldn’t leave and move on. I think this is the way it should be and the days of a Big Jim, Madigan and Daley are over. But at least Gov. Thompson knew when it was time to leave.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 1:50 pm:
After she lied about the SAFE-T Act I will not vote for Mendoza again for any office.
- TNR - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 3:01 pm:
== Broadway Bank ==
Alexi was fortunate that none of his opponents in the Sec of State race had the cash to remind voters of that messiness. Doubt he gets the same break if he runs for mayor. Might be worth it to cool his jets for a little while longer and continue to build on some pretty good momentum he’s established as SOS and let Broadway recede further in the rear view mirror.
- TKMH - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 5:32 pm:
==The Gaza Resolution is going to cost the CTU the mayor’s office, I do not think it was worth it.==
I don’t think his position on a Mideast war will matter all that much in a 2027 municipal election. Rather, Johnson’s continual alienation of the city’s major stakeholders via policy (Bring Home Chicago) and rhetoric (”critics of my school spending plan are like those who opposed abolitionism”) will ensure he is a one-termer.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 6:45 pm:
==to remind voters of that messiness==
It is almost 20-years old at this point. The JB toilet smear is newer and that seems ancient.
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Jun 2, 25 @ 7:25 pm:
===The Gaza Resolution===
There’s really not anything incendiary in the resolution and in a year or two I think most of the American left will find a bit of a frog in their throat when it comes to being vocal supporters of that the Israeli government is currently up to and will likely continue to be up to by that point. Especially as the GOP continues to make it a specifically right wing/Trump issue.
Supporting an immediate ceasefire before tens of thousands more civilians died and before the ethnic cleansing goals became a lot more apparent isn’t going to be an albatross.
Mendoza is already angling hard for right leaning Chicago voters and is comfortable with false and misleading talking points. The real question will be whether or not other people show up to split those votes and keep Mendoza from the run off.
For the life of me, I don’t understand why some Democrats want to pretend like it is still the 1990s other than the fact that for a lot of people the 1990s was pretty great compared to what’s going on now.