* Press release…

A new report issued by the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association (IMA), Chemical Industry Council of Illinois (CICI), International Union of Operating Engineers (IUOE) Local 150, and the Illinois Pipe Trades Association (IPTA) warns a government-mandated push toward full electrification in Illinois could impose more than $1 trillion in costs by 2050, driving up energy bills for businesses and consumers by more than 2,000 percent, threatening energy reliability and the state’s economic stability.

The study, Analysis of Potential Pathways to a Clean Energy Future in Illinois, finds alternative decarbonization pathways that continue to utilize the natural gas system can reduce emissions significantly at a fraction of the cost to Illinoisans. Affordable, reliable energy is critical to our state’s manufacturing sector, which depends on large amounts of energy to produce the goods consumers rely on every day, including life-saving medicines, nutritious food and other products that keep our economy running. Additionally, full electrification would threaten the jobs of thousands of skilled laborers, who are vital to maintaining the state’s diverse energy sector.

The study models several potential energy futures for Illinois, including a 100% electrification scenario that would result in nearly $540 billion in new electric infrastructure investments and an additional $638 billion in incentives – paid by natural gas consumers – to subsidize full electrification. Under this scenario, energy costs for homes and businesses would rise by approximately 14% annually for the next 25 years. […]

The report emphasizes that a government-mandated electrification policy would require costly subsidies to convince or coerce participation, particularly from customers who cannot afford the high upfront costs of electric retrofits. By contrast, alternative scenarios that incorporate moderate electrification, hybrid heating systems, energy efficiency and renewable natural gas (RNG) would cost significantly less—between $340 billion and $391 billion, or roughly one-third the cost of the full electrification. These more affordable pathways still achieve up to 60% emissions reductions while preserving customer choice and ensuring energy reliability.

Click here for the full report, but just keep in mind that nobody has so far proposed a full electrification plan. And the governor’s spokesperson told me “that’s never been our approach.”

* I collected some responses. From the Illinois Environmental Council…

Let’s be clear - electricity rates are increasing because of skyrocketing demand from energy-intensive data centers and because Regional Transmission Organizations have been disastrously slow to connect cost-effective clean energy to the electric grid. Electrification efforts, including the use of efficient heat pumps, can help solve for high electric rates while protecting Illinoisans from cancer-causing, climate-warming methane gas. Illinois can’t afford not to electrify - our pocketbooks, our health, and our climate will suffer if we don’t. The ICC’s Future of Gas proceedings, which are the key venue to discuss Illinois’ managed transition away from methane gas, are well underway here in Illinois, and we expect in-state experts with the best interests of Illinoisans in mind to create a plan to move away from methane gas to bring much-needed health and savings benefits to Illinois families.

* From the governor’s spokesperson Alex Gough…

The Climate Equity and Jobs Act (CEJA) is focused on delivering clean energy to Illinoisans that is affordable and reliable. The administration will always seek to collaborate with our partners in the business community and organized labor to make that a reality.

However, this study misrepresents the goals outlined in CEJA and the cost of clean energy in Illinois. Gas utilities also said in 2009 that the pipeline replacement program would cost $2.2 billion, but costs and bills have skyrocketed since then. A recent study by the Citizens Utility Board estimated the program will cost more than $16 billion.

This report inflates the cost of alternatives and underestimates the costs of natural gas. Meanwhile, the Illinois Commerce Commission’s (ICC) Future of Gas proceeding is a transparent, public process to identify the best way towards cleaner and more affordable heating. That is the kind of process we ought to be guided by for the best path forward in our state.

* I followed up with Monique Garcia, who wrote the initial press release…

Conversations about electrification, including full electrification, have been raised during the state’s Future of Gas proceedings. This report models several scenarios, including full electrification.

The modeling provided in this report is intended to be useful for policymakers as they explore various clean energy pathways both during the Future of Gas proceedings and the current Resource Adequacy Planning survey that started a few weeks ago. The study presents potential cost and emissions reductions from a few potential decarbonization pathways, including 100 percent Clean Energy by 2050; caps on average total delivered natural gas rates statewide; and a model decarbonization portfolio proposed by several gas utilities in New York.

Many groups, ranging from the business community and organized labor to environmental organizations and government entities, have called for further discussion and information related to the cost, workforce impact, and reliability of moving away from natural gas – this study provides some data and information under various scenarios.