The costs to Illinois’ government because of the new Republican congressional budget reconciliation law will be steep.
However, the state has some time to prepare itself, and possible Democratic gains in the U.S. House and Senate next year might be able to reverse or mitigate some of the steepest cuts to food security and health care programs before the vast majority of them take effect after the 2026 elections.
In the interim, Gov. JB Pritzker could also lower some of the state’s direct fiscal impact with a big administrative effort — a fact that has been glossed over in pretty much all news coverage so far.
Without substantial changes to the state’s administration, Illinois’ share of increased mandated costs for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program might total $788 million a year — money the state clearly does not have.
Pritzker claimed last month that the SNAP proposal would cost Illinois $1.2 billion a year, but his projection was based on the U.S. House’s proposal. The Senate version, which passed the House, scaled back that number.
The reductions don’t begin until the 2028 federal fiscal year (which starts Oct. 1, 2027), so the state has a chance in the meantime to improve matters on its end, and that effective date is almost a year after the 2026 midterm elections.
If current trends continue, Illinois will have to pay 15% of the total SNAP benefit costs, which, according to the governor’s office, would be $705 million a year.
The reason the state is on the hook for 15% of benefit costs is because of its high SNAP payment error rate, which stood at 11.56% in fiscal year 2024, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The state’s error rates for underpayments to SNAP beneficiaries was less than 1%, but its overpayment error rate was 10.6%.
The new federal law requires that states with SNAP payment error rates of 10% or higher must pay 15% of SNAP benefit costs. The state will struggle mightily to afford that, so lots of people may lose their food aid if things don’t change.
Eleven states, including New York and New Jersey plus the District of Columbia, had higher error rates than Illinois, but 38 had lower error rates.
If Illinois could reduce its error rate to above 8% but below 10% — on par with states like Michigan, Ohio and Texas then it would pay 10% of benefit costs, or $470 million a year.
Reducing Illinois’ error rate to a recent 15-year average of what the Food Resource and Action Center says was 7.1%, would make its annual penalty 5% of benefit costs — or $235 million a year.
And if Pritzker’s administration could decrease the error rate below 6%, then the state would face no additional state penalties at all.
Illinois achieved those lower error rates five times between 2011 and 2017. Eight smaller states, including Wisconsin, had error rates below 6% in FY24.
Unless the law is changed, reducing the error rate has to be done or it’s gonna eventually cost the state a fortune and/or result in huge numbers of people missing out on aid.
Pritzker frequently touts his administrative prowess, so this gives him a measurable opportunity to prove it. But he doesn’t have much time because the first increased SNAP payment will be based on the state’s performance during federal fiscal year 2026, which begins in October. The state needs an all hands on deck approach to this problem.
The new law also requires states to pick up the tab for 75% of SNAP administration expenses, which will cost the state an extra $83 million a year, according to the Greater Chicago Food Depository. States currently pay half the expenses.
However, regardless of Illinois’ error rate, the state’s SNAP outlay could very well be lower than $708 million, because the new federal law will likely result in significantly fewer SNAP recipients, mainly due to work requirements. If history is any guide, up to a quarter of recipients could lose some or all of their benefits without any actual corresponding increase in employment.
Illinois will have to work hard to make sure people don’t fall through the paperwork cracks, but that will also mean it’ll cost the state more money to pay a portion of their benefits unless it manages to get its error rate under control.
- Honeybear - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 9:19 am:
It’s gonna be rough but I believe in our DHS team. We’re training like crazy and tightening up our precision. What most people don’t understand is that determining and maintaining eligibility for SNAP is super complex. It takes a year to become a crappy caseworker. Our eligibility computer system is very complex and is always changing.
But we’re going to do our best.
Your prayers would greatly be appreciated.
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 9:40 am:
There’s a pretty significant skills gap in between the folks in the Governor’s office and the folks actually managing DHS and the State in general isn’t exactly known for having extensive training and development for people in supervisory and managerial rolls.
- Gimmie Gimmie - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 9:43 am:
This is good work, Rich.
- Frumpy White Guy - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 9:50 am:
In all my years, I have never seen a proactive action plan developed and presented by a journalist. Great job Rich.
- Mr. K - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 9:56 am:
“the State in general isn’t exactly known for having extensive training and development for people in supervisory and managerial rolls”
Say it ain’t so.
- Captain Obvious - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 9:59 am:
What exactly is so complex about these applications is so complex that 10% + result in overpayment of benefits? Are the rules unclear or ambiguous? Is the state unable to create a system that clearly and accurately determines eligibility? The fact that only 1% or less are underpayments indicates some level of intent to grant more generous benefits than allowed. And apologies to Honeybear, but 6% is a very generous error rate for a long established program that has clear guidelines. There has been more than ample time to perfect the application process since the program’s inception nearly 100 years ago. Should be no problem for an adminstrative powerhouse like JB to get this straightend out.
- Honeybear - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 10:09 am:
Oh, and most importantly, if you want the satisfying job of putting food on a table,Medicine in a body, and short term cash for needy families, please consider becoming a Human Services Caseworker. I tell my customers “I protect the members of my community by making sure they get the benefits they are eligible for”
It takes lot to become a HSC. You’re going to be trained more than most jobs get, work with no end to the work in sight, but go home every day with the satisfaction that you made the difference.
Your local Family Community Resource Center needs you badly yesterday.
Become a Social Services Career Trainee and get promoted and certified as a Human Services Caseworker. You’ll be on the front line making sure the fine people of your state make it through the tough times ahead.
- yinn - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 10:13 am:
Please add my compliments to the others’. In terms of my now-precise understanding of the problem, stakes, and potential solution, this article is — *chef’s kiss*.
- City Zen - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 10:18 am:
==its overpayment error rate was 10.6%==
That rate has been steady increasing for several years now. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is below 4%. Maybe give Evers a call.
- ChicagoVinny - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 10:31 am:
I guess I’ll make the counter-argument why this is not the best use of Pritzker’s time.
I don’t think the GOP is acting in good faith here. They are trying to have their cake and eat it too. They are delaying the federal SNAP cuts until 2028, but forcing governors to effectively put reductions in place now to meet the error rate threshold in 2026. Basically it is a backdoor cut they can blame on governors, since I imagine to lower that error rate some folks who need benefits will get the short end of the stick.
In a vacuum lowering the error rate is probably good, but this feels like spending political capital to implement the GOP’s austerity measures. Particularly when it seems unlikely those 2028 SNAP cuts will survive given how politically radioactive they are.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 10:38 am:
===but this feels like spending political capital to implement the GOP’s austerity measures===
We’re in a trick box. The best way out is making sure that people who qualify for SNAP receive SNAP.
- King Louis XVI - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 10:51 am:
JB doesn’t do implementation.
- very old soil - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 11:04 am:
How does USDA determine “error rate”? Is it based on reviews by an expert staff member of a sample of all applications in a state or by a computer program?
- Google Is Your Friend - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 11:11 am:
- very old soil - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 11:04 am:
It is a review of a sampling of cases, approximately 50,000 per state per year (done by the state) and 25,000 per state per year done by USDA.
https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/qc
- very old soil - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 11:25 am:
Google is your friend, Thanks for the link. It was very informative. I read it to say 50,000 nationwide, not 50,000 in each of the 50 states
- Google Is Your Friend - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 11:32 am:
Also for those inclined, you can view some historical error rates from the Hamilton Project, nationally and by state. One thing to note is that error rates consistently went upward during the first Trump term. Secondly, what counts as an error was expanded (second link) during the Biden administration.
https://www.hamiltonproject.org/data/snap-payment-error-rates-by-state-fy-2003-24/
https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-includes-extensive-payment-accuracy-system
- Google Is Your Friend - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 11:33 am:
- very old soil - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 11:25 am:
You are actually correct, I misread the factsheet.
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 11:41 am:
===JB doesn’t do implementation.===
LOL. I still have so many unanswered questions about how they could not notice that an agency head wasn’t showing up at work.
- Give Us Barabbas - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 12:03 pm:
Fraud is not the main problem with the snap benefits, error rate. It’s a combination of honest mistakes from people, unused to the system not having sufficient or correct documentation or, the fact that they have to keep coming back every six months to basically prove eligibility when their life is already in turmoil. They are very frequently right on the horizon line between steady work and periodic work and their expenses are constantly going up and down regarding things like childcare and transportation and healthcare Folks like Honeybear are doing the best they can with what they’re given. I am passing familiar with the computer systems that those folks use and they are rather arcane however, I’m not sure that this is a problem that can be solved with AI apps. Because AI does not do nuance.
- Sue - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 12:19 pm:
Thank you for this, the first response I’ve seen to a Trump action that is not “we’re going to fight until our last breath” but proposing a practical response.
- clec dcn - Monday, Jul 14, 25 @ 12:50 pm:
Having done this in my previous 34 years of work, snap error is tricky. It is possible to work around errors and the definition of an error can change on a whim it seems. Caseworkers are under huge time pressure demands. It can be very stressfull for sure.