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Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* You might wanna watch this before or after tonight’s debate, or maybe even during…

Thanks, Glenn. I needed that.

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Protected: *** UPDATED x2 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: Afternoon updates

Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x1 *** More polls, more ads

Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a press release…

U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-Colona) today released a new poll from Public Opinions Strategies showing that, despite millions being spent against him by outside groups in recent weeks, Schilling is starting to pull away from his opponent, Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline).

At the same time, Schilling released fundraising totals for the third quarter showing he raised $617,826.37 in that span, pushing his total fundraising efforts for the 2011-12 election cycle over $2.1 million. The campaign currently has $839,000 cash on hand.

The Public Opinion Strategies poll surveyed 400 likely voters and gave Schilling a 51-44 lead over Bustos. 45 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Schilling, while 34 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of him. Meanwhile, just 34 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Bustos, while 38 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of her. The poll also found that President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the Illinois 17th District by a 50-44 margin.

We Ask America had Bustos ahead by less than a point on October 9th. The firm had Obama ahead of Romney by almost 12 points, not the 6-point margin in Schilling’s poll.

* Meanwhile, the DCCC has a new poll showing Democrat Brad Schneider leading Republican Bob Dold by a single point, 44-43. That October 14th poll tracks pretty closely with We Ask America’s October 9th poll which had Dold up by less than 2 points. This race appears to be quite close.

* From the DCCC…

Our poll shows the President leading Romney by 12 points (54% - 42%), paving a path for Schneider to increase his lead.

We Ask America had Obama leading by 10, 53-43.

DCCC methodology…

The data in this memo is from a survey of 451 likely 2012 voters conducted October 14, 2012, in Illinois’ 10th Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.6%.

* OK, on to the DCCC’s new TV ads. The first hits Bobby Schilling on Medicare….

Script…

We work a lifetime for these moments…

We save…and plan so there’s peace of mind in retirement.

But some in Washington like Bobby Schilling would end that security… end the guarantee of Medicare…

Schilling would hand decisions about our health care to insurance companies…

To give more tax breaks to millionaires.

Bobby Schilling needs to remember: he works for us.

And we work our whole lives…for this.

* Another “Jason Plummer’s never had to work for anything” spot…

Script…

In Washington, special interests are drowning out the middle-class.

But if you send this Plummer to Congress, he’ll make it worse.

Jason Plummer signed a pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations that outsource jobs.

And he’d give more tax breaks to millionaires like himself — while making the middle-class pay thousands more.

Jason Plummer’s never had to work for anything…what makes you think he’ll work for you?

* And Rodney Davis is hit on outsourcing jobs…

Script…

47,000 Illinois jobs lost.
Sent overseas in unfair trade deals.
47,000 families left to scrape by… while corporations are rewarded for the mass layoffs.
Rewarded by politicians like Rodney Davis who want to hand them tax breaks for shipping our jobs overseas.
47,000 more reasons why Rodney Davis is wrong for Illinois.

I didn’t see any new GOP ads posted on YouTube this afternoon, but if or when I do I’ll update the post.

*** UPDATE *** A pretty good Rodney Davis ad I missed…

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Is two a trend?

Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As we’ve already seen, Republican Congressman Bob Dold used his mom in a TV ad to bolster his claims that he won’t harm Social Security or Medicare. Republican Congressman Bobby Schilling uses his grandmother to make the same point, but with a harder edge at the end…

Thoughts?

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Dems again slam Dold on Tea Party ties

Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Freshman Republican Bob Dold has complained that Democrat Brad Schneider’s ad which calls him a “Tea Party loyalist” is a fabrication. Well, the House Majority PAC has now doubled down…

Dold ain’t gonna like that one.

* Dold, by the way, has a major cash advantage over Schneider in the 10th CD…

Team Dold netted $993,509 in donations during the quarter, according to the campaign’s report. For the entire election cycle, the Dold campaign has received an estimated $3.9 million from donors.

The Dold campaign spent $832,560 during the quarter and $1.9 million during the race so far, records show.

The Dold campaign ended the period with $2.3 million in the bank and $44,480 in debts.

Schneider’s campaign netted $777,268 in donations during the last quarter. For the campaign, he’s received nearly $2.3 million in campaign checks.

Schneider spent more than Dold during the quarter, reporting nearly $1.1 million in expenses. Overall, the Schneider campaign has spent $2.1 million on the race. That includes money spent during the contested Democratic primary. Dold ran unopposed in the GOP primary.

Schneider finished the quarter with $267,625 in the bank — roughly 11 percent of the funds in Dold’s campaign war chest.

* Related…

* Dold, Schneider discuss bipartisanship, health care reform: Dold, though, said the act addressed access to insurance, not quality. He said the way to drive down medical costs is through consumer-driven plans. While a large portion of the country gets its health insurance through employers, Dold said he has talked to business owners who would prefer to pay a required penalty in exchange for sending their employees to find alternatives on the “free market.” “I can think of few things more terrifying than to tell someone they’re on their own to get health care,” Dold said.

* Dold Discards Norquist Pledge in Debate With Schneider: Dold then touted his support of the Cooper-LaTourette financial plan as an alternative to the House Republican Budget authored by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), his party’s vice presidential candidate. He was one of eight co-sponsors—four Democrats and four Republicans… “I’ll do it in a way we will be able to get more than 38 votes,” Schneider said of his intentions to work with Republicans. “The day after (Cooper La Tourette was defeated) he (Dold) voted for the Ryan budget that will replace Medicare with a voucher system.”

* Foes trade jabs at 10th District debate - Dold, Schneider discuss budget, Israel, oil drilling

* Schneider, Dold Square Off In 10th District Debate

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