I’m not hopeful that the budget will be done before the fourth of July. Ultimately it will get done, because it has to. I don’t think even Rauner is crazy enough to try a government shutdown this summer.
But after the Court tosses the pension fix, the only way to a balanced budget is a lot more revenue and some additional cuts. Rauner, Durkin and Radogno showed they have the stomach for some cuts, but who knows how they feel about finding $2-3 billion in new revenue?
Unlike the FY 15 fix, the FY 16 budget will require revenue hikes. Consequently, it will mean heavier lifting for the GOP than sweeping the special funds and cutting education funding. For a dozen years now Republicans have been insisting that “this state has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.” Should they now support higher taxes, that would reveal they were wrong about no revenue problem.
Bruce hasn’t started negotiations and he’s already 2.2 Billion behind.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Mar 30, 15 @ 12:43 pm:
The June 2015 road construction letting could be funded with either FY 15 or FY 16 money. Since the FY 15 funds were swept, and if there is truly to be no loss in the program, that $300 or 400 million will need to be found soon.
- allknowingmasterofracoondom - Monday, Mar 30, 15 @ 12:43 pm:
FY16 a whole different story. No new revenues=no new budget, period. There is no way a FY16 gets done without new revenue.
Not hopeful. Big holes to fill, especially the fake pension savings. Revenue discussions will be drawn out. Rauner will hold budget hostage for pieces of his 6 bill agenda. Dems need to percolate for awhile to accept a lot of cuts.
It’s one thing to sweep funds, short funds, it’s another to cobble 60 and 30 with budgetary constraints for 12 months, finally showing where fiscally what you prioritize, versus just trying to find monies to keep the lights, heat, and gas on for 15 or so weeks.
It will be the fight for 13 or so HDems, and 10 or so SDems, and the 66/67 GOP GA members doing the severe heavy lifting. All of them.
The FY 15 was indeed a “patch”. We will need true reform, radical change in entitlements, pension reform,and some revenue enhancements to even come close to a balanced FY16 budget. Let’s hope leadership in both parties are up to it, but past history does not seem to make that promising.
The dem rank and file get protected from revenue votes at all cost, but cannot be protected this year. The republicans have never had to vote for revenue, but cannot avoid it this year. Is there any reason to believe that both sides will accept this early and make this process easier on themselves and the state? No. No there is not.
I wasn’t hopeful, until I saw the structured rolls on the FY15 fix.
I voted hopeful. If the GOP believe their statements from the last decade that we have a spending problem, they should have all green lights on big time cuts. If Madigan and Cullerton can find a few folks willing to play, why not? My point is if they can structure a roll to get out of here, if there is a path to victory similar to FY15 I don’t see why they don’t do it again.
Dems, Repubs and the Guv don’t benefit from an overtime session.
I’m actually hopeful. Governor Rauner has demonstrated a willingness to use tricks, gimmicks, sleights of hand, and other assorted bad management maneuvers in order to get a budget “fix”, so I’m confident he will continue this pattern of mismanagement in order to get an FY16 budget passed.
Republicans and Democrats both know that more revenue needs to be the major feature of an FY16 final budget, but neither wants to be involved. As the old blues tunes goes, “Everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die.” This summer will be the ugliest session in many, many years.
Way different ball game, and it hasn’t even started yet.
The governor did a disservice to the process with all the phony “savings” in his budget so he could pretend to increase education spending. The some-of-the-people-all-of-the-time crowd actually believed him.
Strange, though, that he went out of his way to whack the most vulnerable with cuts. If you’re just making it up, why not just say “2.4 billion in pension savings?”
It is easy to nit-pick and piece together bucks for a short period. You can smile while saying nice sound bites about working together. Do it for the long haul and unless there is an endless supply of hidden dollars, the availability goes away. 5% is coming back cause there is no where else to go. There will lots of self created muck to wade through to get there.
Totally different beasts, FY15 and FY16. The fund sweeps ameliorated much of the pain for FY15 to get to something that could get enough votes to pass.
Big stumbling blocks right out of the gate for FY16 budget–Governor Rauner using fake numbers (out of everything he’s done in the job, that is what disappointment me by far the most), House and Senate Republicans starting with a no-revenue-increase stance, and House and Senate Democrats disposed to increase revenue rather than make cuts as painful as will be required.
Republicans have been instructing us for years about how higher taxes kill jobs by chasing businesses away to other states. If they really believe that, then how can they now say higher taxes don’t really matter? They can’t have it both ways.
== We will need true reform, radical change in entitlements, pension reform,and some revenue enhancements to even come close to a balanced FY16 budget. ==
True pension reform has already happened; it’s called “Tier 2″. “Tier 2″ is structured that the new employees will actually pay in more than they can ever take out. The cost to the State for “Tier 2″ is zero, repeat, ZERO.
== Anonymous @ 12:58 pm == There are no more savings to be legally found in “pension reform”.