Question of the day
Friday, May 4, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The live coverage post attracts a huge number of Statehouse eyeballs on session days. I often put press releases and news items into that post which won’t fit anywhere else on the blog. But I get interesting press releases and read news items every day that aren’t a good fit for discussion here. So, I’m wondering what you think.
* The Question: Should we have a live coverage post every day? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey services
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More heat over Senger e-mail
Friday, May 4, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Let’s circle back to yesterday’s press conference where Democrats blasted the governor and his former deputy chief of staff Darlene Senger…
In an email dated December 13, 2017 to Governor Bruce Rauner’s top staffers, Republican candidate for comptroller Darlene Senger wrote, “We can maybe tie this back to Duckworth.” […]
Mendoza also called out the Rauner administration over the lack of any response to the email.
“There wasn’t a single member of the governor’s leadership team who responded back saying something along the lines of ‘that is so highly inappropriate, like stop right there,’ Mendoza said.
The Rauner administration said there was no need to respond because Senger’s statement was a single, random suggestion.
They may not have responded because this stuff is FOIA-able, so getting into an online back-and-forth isn’t ever advisable. Also, Senger had her detractors on staff. They may not have wanted to engage.
* Notice, though, that there are no quotation marks in the excerpt’s last sentence. I tried to get the Rauner administration to tell me exactly what was said, but couldn’t. They referred me back to yesterday’s statement, which didn’t mention the reason nobody responded to Senger.
The reporter told me that the line about “no need to respond” was from a background conversation.
* The Pritzker campaign sent me this earlier today, but I didn’t want to run it until after I’d tracked everyone down…
So the Rauner administration suggested blaming the tragic deaths of 13 Veterans and spouses on one of our state’s greatest heroes, but it’s ok because they only did it once?
Ouch.
* Onward. From the SJ-R…
Thumbs down: To former Deputy Governor Darlene Singer for putting politics first as the severity of repeated Legionnaires disease outbreak at the Illinois Veterans Home in Quincy became a public issue.
On Dec. 12, WBEZ 91.5 Chicago published the first story in an investigation that raised serious questions about how the administration of Gov. Bruce Rauner responded to the outbreak and notified those affected and the public about what became a public health epidemic. The next day, Senger suggested tying the outbreak to U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth, who ran the agency that oversees the Quincy home from 2006-2009. The first outbreak at the Quincy home was in 2015.
We know in politics there is always a desire to blame somebody when something has gone wrong. And if more could have been done to prevent the three consecutive years of outbreaks from happening, someone should be held accountable.
But to make placing blame the priority — instead of fixing the problem and helping the residents at Quincy — is unconscionable. Veterans who fought for our country don’t need to be politicized. The residents of that facility need a healthy, safe place to life.
* And one more from the Pritzker campaign…
Bruce Rauner lied again. The word ‘immediate’ can have many definitions — ‘occurring or accomplished without delay; instant’ or ‘following or preceding without a lapse of time’ — but none describe Rauner’s response to the Legionnaires’ crisis.
RAUNER’S LIE:
Yesterday, the Rauner campaign claimed “Governor Rauner took immediate action to address the problems at Quincy.”
THE TRUTH:
Rauner proposed his Quincy plan three years after the first deadly outbreak and almost six months after widespread media and legislative investigations began.
A disease expert told WBEZ: “I think it’s really inexcusable…It takes you six days from seeing an epidemic to tell people that you’re seeing an epidemic? That’s six days that you’ve allowed that disease to spread in a manner that probably wouldn’t have happened if you would have known earlier because people would have been taking action. People would have been asking questions. If you know there is an epidemic, you need to tell people immediately.”
“There’s nothing ‘immediate’ about waiting six days to notify the public about a Legionnaires’ outbreak that took 12 lives in 2015 and another in 2017,” said Pritzker campaign spokesman Jason Rubin. “This was and continues to be an unconscionable failure.”
* They also sent a media coverage roundup. They got a lot of pretty strong stories yesterday. TV stations WIFR, WGEM, KHQA, WFLD, WBBM, WMAQ, WLS, WGN, WICS/WRSP, WPSD, WQAD, WHOI/WEEK and WAND all aired pieces with video of the event. It was plastered across the front page of today’s Sun-Times (story is here) and the Tribune gave it a lot of space as well. The campaign also sent clips from radio stations WLS AM, WBBM Newsradio and WMAY.
It was, in other words, a solid hit.
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* Kinda dramatic, but whatevs…
The judge had earlier refused McCann’s request that the Senate Republicans be ordered to immediately restore his access to resources.
* Good point…
* If he loses this case, he has indeed admitted on the record that he can’t do his job. That might open the possibility of caucusing with the Democrats…
I’ve asked the SDems for comment.
…Adding… John Patterson said he’s not aware of McCann even wanting to caucus with the Dems.
* Also, remember yesterday when we talked about how McCann had called WCIA TV’s Mark Maxwell a “yellow journalist” and all sorts of other names?
Well, that wasn’t the first time he’s done that. WCIA’s former Statehouse guy Matt Porter interviewed him in March of 2016…
PORTER: The thing… that got a little bit of notoriety is that there were some campaign finance issues, there was a board [of elections] meeting on Monday, and there’s going to be a public hearing about the mileage reimbursements being unclear. There was a significant amount, $38,000, and also some expenditures that could’ve been more detailed, about $46,000 there. Do you have any regrets about how your campaign finance worked out the past year and that that became a weak point for you?
McCANN: You know, I think really what’s terrible is that you’ve brought me here to the Statehouse to interview me today and you’ve decided to go into this yellow journalism.
He then claimed he was owed “far more” than he’s taken in reimbursement, and then he threw out the “yellow journalism” epithet again.
Porter kept his cool throughout.
Sam may not be so lucky the next time he pulls that stunt.
*** UPDATE *** Dave Dahl at WTAX radio got the treatment on April 19th when he asked McCann a question…
“Did they send you over here, are you working for them, Dave?
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* The [again] updated retirement, lost a primary, etc. list…
* So, that’s 13 House Democrats, or 19 percent of the total caucus; 14 House Republicans, or 27 percent of the total; 5 Senate Democrats, which is 13.5 percent of the total and 5 Senate Republicans, which is 23 percent of their total. Grand total so far: 37. Whew.
And we’ll likely be adding Rep. Silvana Tabares (D-Chicago) if and when she is appointed to the Chicago city council in the coming weeks. That’ll push the grand total percentage to 21.5.
*** UPDATE *** Retired Sen. Donne Trotter isn’t on that list, so I adjusted the numbers, including the headline.
Former Rep. Elgie Sims took Trotter’s place, but I don’t know what to do about him, so I left that count alone.
Also, there are some good points in these text messages, which I’ve cleaned up a bit…
The thing is - 13 house Ds are leaving/left, but 3 have already been replaced, 1 is running for Senate + 1 for lt guv, so only 8 are actually lame ducks. Only 1 House R is running for Senate, so the other 13 are lame ducks…going to take a lot more wrangling on R side.
Easy to imagine more than a few of those R’s dumping Rauner on a budget vote, etc…probably explains why Rauner has basically zero demands on the budget this time.
McAuliffe, Durkin, Sommer, [Dan] Brady and Hammond will be the only people left [in the House next January] who took office before 2011.
lol only 5 House Republicans will have served under more than Quinn and Rauner [by the end of this term, assuming no one else loses]. Kinda nuts!
Only 15 will have served under more than JUST RAUNER…compared to 22 who have ONLY served under Rauner. That’s nuts.
So basically a pretty large majority of the non-lame duck House Republican caucus has never dealt with a governor who isn’t Bruce Rauner.
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We’re gonna need a bigger boat
Friday, May 4, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Crain’s Chicago Business posted my column early this week, so here you go…
We’ve been hearing a lot of debate lately about the merits and demerits of a graduated, or “progressive,” state income tax.
Illinois’ constitution mandates a “non-graduated rate.” Everybody from the poorest to the wealthiest currently sends 4.95 percent of their taxable personal income to the state.
The Center for Tax & Budget Accountability recently unveiled a graduated income tax proposal that it claims would reduce taxes for 98 percent of Illinoisans. Under its plan, income over $300,000 per year would be taxed at an 8 percent rate. The highest rate, 9.85 percent, would apply to annual income above $1 million.
The center’s plan would raise an estimated $2 billion in its first full year. By contrast, last year’s income tax hike—to 4.95 percent from 3.75 percent—was projected to raise about $5 billion. But that’s only if you include revenue from the increase in the corporate income tax rate, which jumped to 7 percent from 5.25 percent. The plan assumes the corporate rate will remain the same, but that’s not what happened the last two times personal rates were hiked.
Illinois’ constitution has a limit on how high corporate tax rates can go. Corporate rates “shall not exceed the rate imposed on individuals by more than a ratio of 8 to 5.”
The constitution doesn’t require an 8-5 ratio, the language simply serves as a cap on corporate taxation. But if the state changed to a graduated tax and then based corporate income taxes on the top personal rate, it would result in a whopping 15.76 percent corporate rate—more than double today’s.
So, clearly, some more debate is in order here, particularly what to do about our 8-5 ratio, since large companies often avoid state income taxes while small businesses pay full freight.
And addressing this issue is even more important when you consider what I’m about to tell you.
The Commission on Government Forecasting & Accountability, which crunches numbers for the General Assembly, did a study in March for Rep. Rob Martwick (D-Chicago). Martwick wanted to know how much additional revenue the state would need through 2045 to pay for expensive things like pensions and the new school funding law and asked that they calculate all other spending growth by using the consumer price index.
COGFA found that Illinois would need to
Click here to read the whole thing before commenting, please. Thanks.
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* I covered this part of the governor’s radio interview at length for subscribers today, so I’ll just let you comment on this RGA release…
Republican Governors are committed to lower taxes on hardworking families, and that dynamic is demonstrating itself in both the Iowa and Illinois gubernatorial races.
In Iowa, GOP Governor Kim Reynolds has announced the largest tax cut in state history. In Illinois, GOP Governor Bruce Rauner has fought against Democrat House Speaker Mike Madigan’s tax and spend agenda for over three years and is committed to stopping Democrat gubernatorial nominee J.B. Pritzker - who is pledging to hike taxes even further if elected.
During an interview yesterday with AM Quad Cities, Governor Rauner praised Governor Reynolds’ tax cut plan as “exactly the right thing to do” and discussed how every state bordering Illinois is cutting taxes, while J.B. Pritzker is making a devastating tax increase for Illinois the centerpiece of his campaign. Listen here.
Reynolds and Rauner know that hardworking families in Iowa and Illinois deserve more money in their pockets, and both Governors are working hard, with some friendly border competition, to get the job done.
Listen to Governor Rauner’s interview with AM Quad Cities here.
Transcript:
HOST: Governor, we talk a lot here on the show AM Quad Cities about the movement from Illinois to Iowa and how that’s getting better and better or worse and worse depending on what side of the river you’re on. And now your friend Gov. Kim Reynolds and the Republicans in Des Moines are passing some income tax cuts, that’s got you concerned?
RAUNER: Oh man we sure do. All of us in states need to compete — and we should compete with each other — we do compete. We compete for businesses, we compete for working families, we compete to grow. Competition is a great thing. Illinois has been losing the competition for years even though we’ve got wonderful people, great location, very very wonderful transportation and education. But we have brutally high taxes and brutal regulation and so our businesses and jobs have been leaving, and working families have been leaving our state. And what’s amazing is the states around us have cut their taxes. Wisconsin’s cut taxes, Indiana’s cut taxes. They’re running budget surpluses. And now Iowa is cutting taxes, which is exactly the right thing to do to grow jobs, grow family income. And to make it more reasonable for economic growth in the state.
And what’s Illinois doing? Right now, Illinois Speaker Mike Madigan and his democrats in Springfield are proposing a massive tax hike and candidate Pritzker, Madigan’s choice for governor, Pritzker is running around the state saying, “let’s raise the income taxes on the people of Illinois.” Horrible, devastating idea, terrible idea. Our tax burden is already higher in Illinois overall than it is in Iowa. We’re already higher taxes than Iowa overall, and to think that Iowa is cutting their taxes to be more competitive while we’re going the other way. We’ve got to fight against this tax hike.
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Illinois Credit Unions: Giving back to the Community
Friday, May 4, 2018 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
Credit unions exist to help people, not make a profit. It is this motto of ‘People Helping People’ that sets credit unions apart. Credit unions exist as member owned, not-for- profit financial institutions that have a strong sense of community. Credit union staff collaborate with civic and local organizations and volunteer their time and talents to give back to their communities. In 2017, credit union staff across Illinois volunteered over *16,500 hours (*CU Social Good). If you are not yet a credit union member, go to ASmarterChoice.org to discover all the advantages that membership holds. Help to strengthen our communities from the inside out by becoming a credit union member today!
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Once again, it’s all or nothin’
Friday, May 4, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the end of Gov. Rauner’s op-ed in the Belleville News-Democrat…
This Monday is the deadline for lawmakers to put term limits on the ballot in November, and end this abuse once and for all. So call your state representative, call your state senator, and demand their support for term limits for all elected officials be put on the ballot. Let them know that there will be consequences in this fall’s election for lawmakers who don’t support giving the people the choice they deserve to change Illinois government.
Illinois can thrive once again, but only if lawmakers in Springfield commit to putting people over politics.
People can call their legislators all they want, but the final deadline to start this process is already over. As I’ve explained before, if the governor wanted to actually do something, he needed to call a special session earlier this week to have time for both chambers to pass the resolution. Passage requires three calendar days in each chamber.
* There is something he could do, however. The Senate already has a resolution on 3rd Reading to limit the terms of legislative leaders. The proposal was advanced during the grand bargain and then abandoned when Rauner killed said bargain. So, that leader term limits proposal could be passed in one day and the House could start its clock that same day. If a special session was called today or tomorrow, it could theoretically get on the ballot. I highly doubt it will “because Madigan,” but it’s still possible I suppose.
The governor’s campaign has called leader term limits a “cop out,” perhaps because JB Pritzker supports the idea, too. But that leader term limits proposal is sponsored by Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady. It’s co-sponsored by several Republicans and even some Democrats, like Daniel Biss and Andy Manar. Sen. Sam McCann is also a co-sponsor.
This is the same problem Rauner has created for himself since the beginning. He won’t settle for a first step on his Turnaround Agenda. He wants all or nothin’. So, he’s gonna get nothin’ like usual.
The legislative leaders could call their own special session, but that won’t happen. If the governor wants something done, he needs to do it himself.
* Meanwhile, from yesterday…
Today, Senator Kyle McCarter (R-Lebanon) signed on as the 36th Senate cosponsor of the Fair Maps Amendment (SJRCA26).
This means that if the Fair Maps Amendment was called for a vote on the Senator floor, the amendment would reach the minimum number of votes needed to pass. The Illinois State Constitution requires legislative constitutional amendments like SJRCA26 to pass with a three-fifths majority. In the Illinois Senate, this three-fifths number required for passage is 36 Senators voting yes.
“Reaching 36 cosponsors is an important milestone for the Fair Maps Amendment. It is a clear demonstration that an overwhelming majority of the Illinois Senate wants to end gerrymandering.” said Jeff Raines, Communication Director at CHANGE Illinois. “It’s time to call the Fair Maps Amendment for a vote.”
The Fair Maps Amendment is modeled after a 2016 proposal drafted by then-Rep. Jack Franks, which passed out of the House with 105 “yes” votes.
That’s great for the future, but it’s too late now. The proposal hasn’t even had a first reading yet.
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* Politico…
Democrat Sean Casten, who is trying to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., says his internal polling numbers show the two are in a statistical tie.
The survey (see the memo here) indicates 45 percent of those surveyed support Roskam, 44 percent for Casten, with 11 percent undecided. Democrats nationally believe the suburban 6th congressional district is among the most likely to flip to blue in November. […]
Still, Roskam is better funded than Casten, has warded off challenges in the past and voters chose Roskam in 2016 at the same time that Hillary Clinton prevailed in the same district. Roskam, one of the architects of the Republican tax law, meantime, is pounding away at Casten on taxes, trying to wrap him in Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan’s unpopularity as well as tying him to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in digital ads. “The taxpayers in the Sixth District deserve a representative who will reflect their priorities and values, not tax-and-spend policies that have driven our state deeper and deeper into debt over the last 30 years,” Roskam campaign spokeswoman Veronica Vera said in a statement.
* As mentioned in the piece, this a memo, not the full poll. It also has a smallish sample size (although not too horribly small, I suppose) and it’s a bit dated…
This memorandum outlines the key findings from a recent telephone survey among a cross-section of 401 likely general election voters in Illinois’s 6 th Congressional District conducted on behalf of Casten for Congress. The survey was conducted April 21-23, 2018, including both cell and landline interviews, and has an overall margin of error of ±4.9 percentage points.
* Let’s have a look…
▪ In our initial trial heat, Sean Casten is in a statistical tie with Peter Roskam, 44% for Casten to 45% for Roskam, with 11% of voters undecided. Among the all-important bloc of independent voters, Casten leads Roskam by 43% to 34%.
▪ Perhaps even more striking is Roskam’s strength of support…or lack thereof.
Incredibly, only 39% of Roskam voters say they strongly support him, which is actually
lower than Casten’s strength of support. For a five-term incumbent to have weaker support than a first-time candidate early in the cycle is a sure sign of Roskam’s deep
vulnerability.
* More…
▪ President Trump lost IL-06 by 7 points in 2016. And voters here certainly haven’t warmed to the president since the election. Trump’s feelings thermometer is currently negative by a 20-point margin (37% positive, 57% negative), and his job approval stands at 41% approve to 56% disapprove (46% strongly).
▪ The national Republican brand is certainly no help to Roskam either, as voters here are more negative (49%) than positive (25%) to Republicans in Congress by nearly 2 to 1.
▪ Perhaps the brightest flashing red light for Peter Roskam is that voters in the district want their member of Congress to be an independent check and balance on Donald Trump rather than to support Trump and help him pass his programs by a decisive 69% to 29% margin, including 76% to 20% among independents. The fact that Peter Roskam has been a virtual rubber stamp for Donald Trump, voting with Trump 94% of the time, puts Roskam FAR out of step with the voters of his district on this critical question, and Roskam’s voting record is a cold hard fact that will be impossible to run away from.
That last point is important because Democrats successfully used that very same message against the wildly unpopular President George W. Bush in 2006. And if 76 percent of independents like this message, then that’ll move some votes for sure. But, hey, things can change fast in politics.
* Here’s Roskam’s Madigan attack from late yesterday afternoon…
Now that House Speaker Mike Madigan has formally backed J.B. Prtizker’s plan to raise taxes for Illinois families, residents of the 6th District deserve to know if Sean Casten will join this latest tax hike scheme by Madigan and Pritzker.
Casten has been one of Madigan’s most consistent supporters for a progressive tax hike.
As recent NBC Chicago investigation revealed that Casten attacked his primary opponent Kelly Mazeski through a Super PAC secretly funded by Casten’s own father. The attacks called Mazeski a “fake” Democrat for her opposition to the Casten/Madigan tax hike.
“Sean Casten consistently stands with Mike Madigan in their shared commitment to raising taxes on Illinois families. The taxpayers in the Sixth District deserve a representative who will reflect their priorities and values, not tax-and-spend policies that have driven our state deeper and deeper into debt over the last 30 years,” said Roskam for Congress spokesman Veronica Vera.
* Sean Casten supported Mike Madigan and his party voted to override the Governor’s veto, burdening Illinois taxpayers with a 32 percent state income tax hike.
* Casten opposed the Governor’s recent budget because he said it didn’t do enough to raise taxes on Illinois residents.
* Earlier this year, Casten announced his intention to repeal the tax breaks Sixth District families and small businesses received through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and support a plan to instead, raise their taxes.
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Rauner: “We’re unifying all Republicans”
Friday, May 4, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Tribune apparently listened to the same radio program I used for part of the today’s subscriber edition…
In an appearance on Quad Cities radio, Rauner downplayed any post-primary rifts among Republicans after his narrow victory over state Rep. Jeanne Ives of Wheaton last month.
Speaking on WOC AM-1420 in Davenport, Iowa, Rauner declared himself a unifier — not just among Republicans, but also with independents and Democrats.
“You know primaries are tough. They’re part of the process. I respect the process and now we’re all coming together in the state. We’re unifying all Republicans,” said Rauner, who faces a third-party challenge from Downstate Republican state Sen. Sam McCann and a potential battle over re-electing his hand-picked state GOP chairman. […]
“This is not an election that’s really about Republicans versus Democrats. This is about the people of Illinois against a corrupt political machine run by Madigan and Pritzker, and it’s the people against the political insiders,” he said.
The full interview is here.
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