Poll: Only a third of Chicagoans favor Blagojevich retrial
Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * 54 percent favoring and 37 percent opposed is not a “slim” majority, but here’s the Tribune’s new poll on whether Rod Blagojevich should be retried…
More interesting numbers…
The takeaway: US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is gonna have to present a far better case next time if he wants to convict this clown with that jury pool. * Meanwhile, Judge Zagel overreacts…
This is the same judge that advised jurors to call 911 if they didn’t like reporters’ questions. * More case business…
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Putting the numbers in context
Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The problem with just about all media polls is that the write-ups almost never mention other surveys taken by different pollsters. That means you don’t get any context, and it can lead to outliers being touted as the only definitive results seen by hundreds of thousands of readers/viewers. The Chicago Tribune is one of the worst offenders. Their numbers, by policy, are all you’ll ever see in their polling stories. And though they’ve improved somewhat over the years, their refusal to release all of their crosstabs means they are still operating in a 20th Century dead tree world. (This is not a knock on the paper’s reporters, mind you, but on corporate policy.) Take, for instance, the governor’s race. The Tribune has this as a five-point race with Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 37-32, with Scott Lee Cohen scoring 4 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and Libertarian Party candidate Lex Green at 2 each. That’s a slight tightening from a recent Public Policy Polling survey which had the race at nine points, 39-30 Brady over Quinn, and an even more recent Rasmussen poll which found that, with leaners, the race was eight points, 49-41. This suggests that Quinn’s recent TV ad buy touting Brady’s pro-gun views might have moved some numbers. But that could also just be a function of different polling techniques, considering that Brady’s unfavorable rating was only 19 percent in the Trib poll. The Tribune obviously does not push voters very hard to make up their minds, and not including “leaners” at this advanced stage is a big mistake. * You also won’t see the Tribune mention stuff like the TPM PollTracker… * Anyway, to the write-up…
It would be nice to see the wording of the questions at hand and some crosstabs, but no dice. * And today’s Tribune has some worrying news for all Illinois Democrats…
This is real trouble as well…
As we’ve discussed before, so many Illinois congressional districts are so heavily gerrymandered to favor the Democrats that this 8-point margin signifies serious problems ahead. And this ain’t good either…
But this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…
* Another recent Tribune poll shows more Democratic weakness…
I didn’t see any regional breakdowns online, but we can probably infer that he ain’t doing well in the suburbs and Downstate. PPP’s latest poll had Obama’s approval at 49 percent and disapproval at 46 percent. Rasmussen’s survey had Obama’s approval at 53 and disapproval at 47. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll had the president’s approval at 45 percent. * Related…
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