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Putting the numbers in context

Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The problem with just about all media polls is that the write-ups almost never mention other surveys taken by different pollsters. That means you don’t get any context, and it can lead to outliers being touted as the only definitive results seen by hundreds of thousands of readers/viewers.

The Chicago Tribune is one of the worst offenders. Their numbers, by policy, are all you’ll ever see in their polling stories. And though they’ve improved somewhat over the years, their refusal to release all of their crosstabs means they are still operating in a 20th Century dead tree world. (This is not a knock on the paper’s reporters, mind you, but on corporate policy.)

Take, for instance, the governor’s race. The Tribune has this as a five-point race with Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 37-32, with Scott Lee Cohen scoring 4 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and Libertarian Party candidate Lex Green at 2 each.

That’s a slight tightening from a recent Public Policy Polling survey which had the race at nine points, 39-30 Brady over Quinn, and an even more recent Rasmussen poll which found that, with leaners, the race was eight points, 49-41.

This suggests that Quinn’s recent TV ad buy touting Brady’s pro-gun views might have moved some numbers. But that could also just be a function of different polling techniques, considering that Brady’s unfavorable rating was only 19 percent in the Trib poll. The Tribune obviously does not push voters very hard to make up their minds, and not including “leaners” at this advanced stage is a big mistake.

* You also won’t see the Tribune mention stuff like the TPM PollTracker


* Anyway, to the write-up

More telling, barely half of Democrats say they support Quinn’s call for higher taxes, while a quarter of them side with Republican Brady, who has said he won’t detail his proposed budget cuts until after the Nov. 2 election.

At the same time, more voters back Brady’s call for more widespread business tax cuts to spur job creation than get behind Quinn’s reliance on passage of the state’s first public works construction program in more than a decade.

But a telling sign for Quinn may be voter reaction to one of his most recurring themes — that he worked to restore trust in state government following the Blagojevich scandal. Under Quinn, lawmakers enacted the first-ever campaign-donation limits, though some criticized them for having loopholes. The General Assembly also agreed to put on the November ballot a proposed constitutional amendment allowing a limited form of recall of a governor.

Yet 70 percent of the state’s voters said they don’t believe Quinn has done enough to curb corruption in Illinois government, including nearly six of 10 Democratic voters and about three-quarters of those who classify themselves as independents.

It would be nice to see the wording of the questions at hand and some crosstabs, but no dice.

* And today’s Tribune has some worrying news for all Illinois Democrats

Currently, 37 percent of voters identify themselves as Democrats and 27 percent say they’re Republicans — a 10-percentage-point differential that is about half the advantage Democrats had entering the 2008 election. Another 31 percent call themselves political independents.

This is real trouble as well…

Despite national polls forecasting a potential wave for Republicans that could let them recapture the House, 45 percent of Illinois voters said Democrats should maintain control of Congress, compared with 37 percent who back the GOP.

As we’ve discussed before, so many Illinois congressional districts are so heavily gerrymandered to favor the Democrats that this 8-point margin signifies serious problems ahead.

And this ain’t good either…

More than 6 in 10 lack confidence in Democratic-run Springfield, though the angst isn’t limited to Illinois borders. Fully 55 percent of the voters say they don’t have much or any confidence that the federal government will make the right decisions affecting them, according to the poll of 600 registered Illinois voters conducted Aug. 28-Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

But this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…

A total of 83 percent of the voters said Blagojevich’s conviction will make no difference in whether they oppose or support Democratic candidates on the ballot.

* Another recent Tribune poll shows more Democratic weakness

A majority of the 600 Illinois registered voters surveyed still gave a positive review to Obama’s performance as president — but it is barely a majority. In all, 51 percent said they approved of the job he has done as president while 39 percent disapproved.

I didn’t see any regional breakdowns online, but we can probably infer that he ain’t doing well in the suburbs and Downstate. PPP’s latest poll had Obama’s approval at 49 percent and disapproval at 46 percent. Rasmussen’s survey had Obama’s approval at 53 and disapproval at 47. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll had the president’s approval at 45 percent.

* Related…

* Brady expected to pick up Fraternal Order of Police endorsement

* Employment Takes Center Stage In Race For Governor

* Politicians Turn Out for Labor Day Rally: QUINN: This election on Nov. 2, it’s all about the economy, it’s all about jobs, it’s all about a governor, who believes, as I do, in the minimum wage.

* GOP gov. hopefuls take on Obama

* Republicans Headed for Big Pick-Up of Governor’s Seats This Year

* Bad economy favors GOP in governor election projection

* Gubernatorial candidate Brady visits, shakes hands; campaign ratcheting up

* Sebelius visits Ill. for Quinn fundraiser

* GOP, Dems gear up for fierce political season

* Rich Whitney Seeks Victory, Not Green Party Growth

  25 Comments      


Holdout juror addresses critics; Robert Blagojevich’s “deal”; Wingers funding Rod?

Friday, Aug 27, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* JoAnn Chiakulas, the lone holdout juror on several Blagojevich counts, takes on her critics

In the week since the trial’s end, Chiakulas has been branded “the holdout” for her refusal to convict the ex-governor on the Senate seat allegations. Her life has been placed under a microscope, with some questioning whether her former government job or her ex-husband’s campaign donation to Blagojevich three decades after they divorced played a role in her decision. […]

Chiakulas, for her part, said she was a public servant hired during Gov. Jim Edgar’s administration. Her ex-husband was politically active before his death, but they were divorced more than 30 years ago.

She also said she did not know Blagojevich co-defendant Chris Kelly, who lived in the same subdivision as one of her relatives before committing suicide a year ago.

The inferences — along with suggestions that she’s “crazy” — anger Chiakulas. She said it upsets her that people want to find an ulterior motive for her decision, rather than believe it’s possible that the prosecution had not proved its case.

“It was something that I took seriously and didn’t ask for,” she said. “And then to be treated the way I’ve been treated, it makes me wonder about being a juror and the system itself.”

Go read the whole thing.

* Prosecutors didn’t offer Rod Blagojevich much of a deal

But just the night before, federal prosecutors were on the phone offering Robert Blagojevich something he always wanted: a separate trial from his celebrity brother.

* Good analysis by Patrick Collins

Former federal prosecutor Patrick Collins said it was “extraordinarily rare” to drop a defendant in a high-profile case.

“I think what the government did today was both smart tactically and just,” Collins said.

Prosecutors likely recognized Robert Blagojevich was a sympathetic figure, that he would be difficult to convict in a retrial and that his testimony as a co-defendant could be helpful to his brother, Collins said.

“Tactically, dismissing him streamlines the case and partially rebuts the ‘persecution’ claims that Rod Blagojevich is making,” Collins said. “It helps the government in the court of public opinion — which does matter in this extraordinary case.”

* And in an unusual admission, Robert flat-out said that his statements to the press after the hung jury were designed to influence the next jury

“The strategy was, it was a disappointment I wasn’t acquitted. It was important to reach the next jury pool. We had a 9-3 vote in my favor, so we came very close. And that was with a jury pool that had been polluted by [U.S. Attorney] Patrick Fitzgerald‘s press conference. So now that we had a trial, it was a good time for me to make a case, be interviewed, explain my situation, and emote whatever I could emote.

* Kadner

As far as I’m concerned, the decision by the U.S. attorney is a disappointment only because Ettinger had promised to call U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2nd) as a witness at a retrial, along with the Indian-American businessman who allegedly told Robert he could raise $6 million if Jackson was appointed senator.

“The whole story” about the sale of the Senate seat will come out, Ettinger vowed, although he implied it would prove there was no deal to sell that seat.

I still think the public is owed an explanation, some detail, whether or not it helps or damages the federal government’s case.

* Will the Wall Street Journal editorial board and national right wingers be funding part of Rod Blagojevich’s defense? Sneed

Sneed hears inquiries have been made about privately funding additional attorneys for the retrial of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

“The federal government will only pay for two attorneys for Blagojevich, but private donations could pay for other attorneys,” said a source.

“The inquiries are in the early stages, but there is talk about help on Rod’s retrial and some of the calls are from people unhappy with U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald for the way he handled the Scooter Libby trial,” the source added.

Hilarious.

* Related…

* Adams stay on Blagojevich case - for now: Although they figure to face a more focused prosecution and with diminished resources at their disposal, Rod Blagojevich’s attorney Sam Adam says reports that he and his son will be leaving the former governor’s defense team are greatly exaggerated.

* Our Opinion: National media miss mark on Blagojevich

* Justice demands new trial for Blagojevich

* Two jurors happy with Robert Blagojevich decision

* Charges dropped against Blago’s brother

* Robert Blagojevich’s Million Dollar Defense

* Feds drop charges against Rob Blagojevich

* The Morning Drive Podcast: Rod Blagojevich is on his own in his upcoming re-trial

* Rod Blagojevich is lone target now that brother is cleared

* No new trial, but no vindication for Robert

* Judge says ex-gov’s retrial won’t start until January

* Blagojevich to be Retried in January

  33 Comments      


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