* Rasmussen Reports has Kirk leading Giannoulias 41-38…

In thinking about the 2010 Election for the United States Senate, suppose you had a choice between Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Mark Kirk or Democrat Alexi Giannoulias?

41% Kirk

38% Giannoulias

4% Some other candidate

17% Not sure

And Kirk has a much bigger lead over Jackson…

Okay, what if the Democrats nominate Cheryle Jackson. If the 2010 election for United States Senate were held today would you vote for Republican Mark Kirk or Democrat Cheryle Jackson?

47% Kirk

30% Jackson

6% Some other candidate

17% Not sure

* But more Democrats are undecided than Republicans and independents are leaning strongly towards Kirk at the moment…

In a race against Giannoulias, Kirk gets 71% of the Republican vote. Giannoulias earns 63% Democratic support. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Kirk 45% to 18%.

Kirk picks up 76% of Republicans in a match-up with Jackson, who has the backing of just 51% of Democrats in the state. Unaffiliateds break for Kirk again, this time by a 51% to 12% margin. […]

Among those who favor the health care reform plan, Giannoulias leads Kirk 68% to 17%. But Kirk has an even larger lead – 67% to nine percent (9%) – among voters opposed to the plan.

The electorate is still fluid.

Also, keep in mind that Rasmussen tends to skew GOP in its national polling.

More toplines…

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

First, Mark Kirk

10% Very favorable

45% Somewhat favorable

24% Somewhat unfavorable

4% Very unfavorable

17% Not sure

6* Next, Alexi Giannoulias

13% Very favorable

38% Somewhat favorable

22% Somewhat unfavorable

11% Very unfavorable

17% Not sure

7* Okay, Cheryle Jackson

13% Very favorable

23% Somewhat favorable

23% Somewhat unfavorable

14% Very unfavorable

26% Not sure

And…

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

29% Strongly favor
19% Somewhat favor
9% Somewhat oppose
39% Strongly oppose
3% Not sure

When it comes to health care decisions, who do you fear the most: the federal government or private insurance companies?

49% The federal government

44% Private insurance companies

7% Not sure

500 likely voters, conducted August 12. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

* Meanwhile…

The bathrobe bloggers are already chattering that Giannoulias has the nomination wrapped up.

Let’s hold on a minute. Here’s Jackson’s playbook:

Rake in some heavy green. While her profile will attract some soft-focused free media, this political unknown needs money big time for TV commercial time.

Jackson’s got to play the race and gender cards. She is assiduously wooing Emily’s List, the powerful national PAC that backs women candidates. As Giannoulias has done in the Greek community, she must cultivate a national profile among prominent women and monied Democratic liberals.

The black “keep-the-seaters” are an unpredictable bunch, but they could come in handy, as well.

Bathrobe bloggers?

Whatever.

* Related…

* Will Chris Kennedy run for Senate? ‘He’s been basically underground for three weeks’

* Is Senate candidate Jackson to blame for Blago blunder?

* Kirk hit on health care