If the election for Congress was today, would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?
46% Democrat
40% Republican
14% Undecided
Even though the Democrats are ahead, that’s a bit misleading. It isn’t good news. The pollster explains…
In Illinois Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot by a 46-40 margin. That may not be terribly reassuring though given how much the party runs up the score in a small number of districts. Six of Illinois’ districts voted for President Obama at a 70% rate or higher in 2008.
…the 6 point generic ballot lead for Democrats in Illinois exceeds the 2 point lead we found for Alexi Giannoulias. That may give you a better idea of the shape Democrats would be in that race if they’d chosen a nominee with less baggage.
What that means is a whole bunch of targeted Democrats are in trouble.
* Speaking of targeted Democratic congresscritters, Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson did have a replacement in mind when she ousted her campaign manager. She’s bringing in Julie Merz…
“The Halvorson camp is talking with Julie Merz about taking over as campaign manager, Vanderbilt said. Merz’s resume includes being campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore (D-Kan.), both of whom are members of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate to conservative Democrats committed to fiscal responsibility and government accountability. She also worked on former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley’s (D-N.J.) presidential campaign in 2000.”
They’re more than just talking about it. I’m told it’s a done deal.
Illinois voters say they would be negatively influenced if a candidate was endorsed by Barack Obama. And if his support isn’t an asset in his home state it’s hard to imagine where it is.
40% of voters in the state say they’d be less likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate to only 26% who say it would be an asset. The reality at this point is that Obama turns Republican voters off to a much greater extent than he excites Democrats. That’s reflected in the fact that 83% of Republicans say an Obama endorsement would be a negative with them while only 49% of Democrats say it would be a positive. Independents also respond negatively by a 38/19 margin.
The numbers on an Obama endorsement are perhaps more relevant with undecided voters. Among those who have not yet made up their minds in the Senate race 21% say an Obama endorsement would resonate positively with them while 33% say it would be a turnoff.
The full results are here. According to PPP, 24 percent of Illinois voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, while 52 percent would be less likely.
In Illinois Durbin is the favorite politician of 41% of voters in the state, followed by Pat Quinn at 10%, and Roland Burris at 6%. Like Pennsylvania the lack of Republicans in major offices in Illinois leaves 42% of voters saying no opinion. Durbin’s tops among Democrats, 60-11 over Quinn, independents, 40-8 over Quinn, and Republicans, 17-12 over Quinn.
Democrats spent their day at the Illinois State Fair Wednesday rehashing the talking points they’ll be using in the fall election campaigns in the wake of ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s unresolved federal corruption charges.
It’s going to feature heavy doses of “We did our job to get rid of Blagojevich and try to stop it from happening again,” along with smatterings of legislative accomplishments like curbs on predatory lending, utility rate relief and public pension reforms.
But House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, who is also chairman of the state Democratic Party, bluntly outlined to Democratic party leaders at the Crowne Plaza Hotel the challenges ahead.
“We all know that there’s a huge scandal hanging over our heads called the former governor,” Madigan said. “We all know that. It’s right and proper for us to ask how shall we go forward, because the opposition will not let us forget the former governor.”
Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago, said Blagojevich’s tenure as governor was so rocky, voters won’t necessarily link his behavior to all Democrats.
“Madigan wouldn’t even talk to him for years,” said Cullerton.
“I’m just really glad he’s not the governor anymore,” Cullerton added.
It was part of an emerging Democratic strategy: Portray Blagojevich as a freelancer who lied to his fellow Democrats even as he lied to the FBI. Remind voters at every turn that it was a Democratic-led Legislature that impeached him. Make the case that he is more akin to imprisoned fellow ex-Gov. George Ryan, a Republican, than he is with today’s Democrats.
“The Republican Party doesn’t have anything to talk about,” Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn said as he arrived at one of the related Springfield party events Wednesday, referencing Ryan. “George Ryan is in jail, Rod Blagojevich is awaiting sentencing, and I’m here to clean it up.”
But Quinn was Blagojevich’s lieutenant governor, replacing him in January 2009, so he may be especially vulnerable to the continuing fallout from the case as he seeks a full term in November.
Asked about his one-time public statements vouching for Blagojevich’s integrity, Quinn harkened to the one criminal count on which Blagojevich was convicted: “Rod Blagojevich lied to me, he lied to the FBI, he lied to the people of Illinois.”
Democrats said they hope to soften the effect of the Blagojevich scandal by talking about pocketbook issues.
They promised to bring more jobs to Illinois and criticized Republicans for wanting to lower the minimum wage, opposing a federal aid package for schools and fighting an extension of unemployment benefits. They mentioned legislative accomplishments like approving a statewide public works program and curtailing government pension costs.
There was little mention of the jobs Illinois has lost under Democratic leadership, the state’s massive budget crisis or the income tax increase Quinn wants to pass if he wins the election.
That was the other huge elephant in the room. Because of the big Blagojevich news, they could more easily gloss over that one.
There were some awkward moments Wednesday such as when Cullerton was railing against Republican candidate for governor State Sen. Bill Brady, for, among other things, paying no federal or state income taxes this year and voting against the capital bill after voting for the projects it funded.
“Bill got a little confused,” Cullerton said. “He voted for the projects. He just didn’t vote for the funding. He says he’s against taxes. He’s against taxes. He didn’t pay any last year.”
A few feet from Cullerton, Giannoulias, who also paid no taxes last year, looked at the ground. By the time Quinn got up to complain about Brady paying no taxes, Giannoulias had left the stage with Sen. Dick Durbin for a state fly-around to convince voters Giannoulias’ economic plan beats Kirk’s.
Oops.
*** UPDATE *** I almost forgot the other elephant at the fair. Former Senate President Emil Jones showed up. Gov. Quinn lavished praised on him from the podium. Turns out, Jones is hinting at a mayoral bid…
Chicago - Former State Senate President Emil Jones is telling political insiders he may run for mayor next year, even if Mayor Daley is in the race, FOX Chicago News has learned.
Political Editor Mike Flannery asked Jones about the report at Democrats Day at the Illinois State Fair.
“I wasn’t thinking about it, it comes up,” Jones said. “I enjoy what I’m doing now. …[People] have come to me several times you know but again, I enjoy what I’m doing presently.”
When asked how he responds to those who ask him to run, Jones said, “It sounds good, but my wife won’t let me do that, I don’t think.”
Yeah. Listen to your wife. She’s right.
* The Governor’s Day media roundup shows it was all about Blagojevich…
* Dems Talk Verdict, Election at Ill. State Fair Governor’s Day
* US Sen. Dick Durbin underwent surgery to have a small tumor removed from his stomach…
Durbin, the second-ranking Senate Democrat, underwent surgery in Chicago to remove a small gastro-intestinal stromal tumor (GIST) discovered during a routine check-up.
The Illinois Democrat’s doctors found no evidence of cancer, Durbin’s office said, and the tumor was able to be removed in its entirety using laparoscopic procedures.
“Senator Durbin went through today’s surgical procedure with flying colors and is resting comfortably,” said Durbin spokesman Joe Shoemaker. “He expects to be released from the hospital and resume a light schedule in the next couple days and should be able to resume a full schedule as soon as next week.”
The tumor was not present in the lining cells of the stomach and was completely removed, with preliminary biopsy results indicating a favorable prognosis, they said.
Durbin spokesman Joseph Shoemaker struck an optimistic note about the surgery.
“This particular type of tumor is a rare form of stomach cancer, so it is cancer, yes,” he said in an interview.
But he added that the type of tumor that was discovered cannot be classified strictly as benign or malignant since they all have potential to become malignant. “However, small ones such as Sen. Durbin’s can often be completely removed and the patient then runs a totally normal course,” he said.
