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New poll numbers for US Senate, Ryan ‘pardon’***UPDATED X1***

Thursday, Dec 4, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rasmussen Reports has a couple of new polls out today. The first has Attorney General Lisa Madigan leading all candidates for US Senate…

Among all Illinois residents, Madigan attracts 25% support, closely followed by [Congressman] Jackson with 23%. Duckworth is next with the backing of 21%. Schakowksy has seven percent (7%) support, with [Emil] Jones at three percent (3%). Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.

Among Democrats, however, Jackson leads…

The Chicago congressman who has been openly campaigning for the job has the support of 36% of Illinois Democrats, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state taken Tuesday night.

Tammy Duckworth, director of Illinois’ Department of Veterans Affairs, is next with the backing of 29%, followed by state Attorney General Lisa Madigan with 17%.

Frankly, it’s interesting to see Duckworth doing so well in a statewide poll.

* More…

Madigan is the leader among men with 28% support, while Jackson is the favorite of a plurality of women (29%). Next for women is Madigan with 22% backing. Second for men is Duckworth (24%), who gets 19% support among women. Just 15% of men support Jackson.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of African-Americans favor Jackson, compared to 10% of whites. Madigan gets the highest level of white support (31%), followed by Duckworth with 22%. Statistically, Madigan has 0% support among blacks.

* And the guv still isn’t popular…

Just 15% now say Blagojevich is doing a good or excellent job as governor, while 61% rate his performance as poor.

* Meanwhile…

Two-thirds of adults in Illinois (66%) are opposed to a presidential pardon for former Governor George Ryan, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Just 23% say Ryan, the Republican convicted on federal corruption charges in 2006, should be pardoned. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. […]

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of men favor a pardon for Ryan, compared to 19% of women. Seventy percent (70%) of whites oppose a pardon, compared to 22% who support it. Blacks are closely divided, with those opposed to a pardon having just a four-point edge.

Members of Ryan’s own political party are more unforgiving than his former political opponents. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Republicans oppose a pardon versus 59% of Democrats. Twenty-six percent (26%) of both parties favor pardoning Ryan. Among those unaffiliated with either major political party, just 15% support a pardon, while 77% oppose one.

Opposition to a pardon generally rises with income level.

Except Ryan isn’t asking for a full pardon, so the poll is flawed.

*** UPDATE 1 *** [Posted by Kevin Fanning] Joe Birkett enters the debate over Ryan’s possible commutation with a letter to President Bush:

While we empathize with Ryan’s family and their plight, I do not believe the hardships they face in his absence are reason enough to free inmate George Ryan. All inmates have families, not just those who led privileged lives prior to their incarceration. The suffering faced by former Governor Ryan’s family is no greater than that experienced by the families of thousands of other inmates across Illinois. That Senator Durbin would ask for special treatment for a man who for decades enjoyed special treatment at the expense of taxpayers is a slap in the face of justice.

[…]

Please help Illinois restore its once proud image of open, honest government by denying Senator Durbin’s request for leniency for a pubic official who has disgraced himself and the great state of Illinois.

* And John Patterson takes us on a stroll down memory lane like only he can…

Turns out, Gov. Rod Blagojevich had a nose for corruption back when he was in Congress.
The Chicago Democrat sat on a House committee looking into President Bill Clinton’s last-minute pardons, including the controversial pardon of fugitive financier Marc Rich.

Rich’s wife gave more than $1 million to the Democratic Party and nearly $500,000 to Clinton’s presidential library.
Blagojevich said at the time he thought the pardon was shady. He apparently could see a conflict of interest at that time when it came to massive donations and the distribution of government largesse.

“I think the pardon would not have happened if not for the campaign contributions,” Blagojevich was quoted as saying then.
Blagojevich also made clear then that he thought Rich’s pardon was an abuse of presidential power. He called it “indefensible and reprehensible.”

Funny how things change.

24 Comments

Lots of heat, but precious little light

Thursday, Dec 4, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Has everyone had their say about George Ryan yet? Probably not, which is why we have another thread on this topic today…

When Sen. Dick Durbin first floated the idea that he might ask President Bush to commute former Gov. George Ryan’s 6 1/2 year prison sentence, we thought that he simply was sending up a trial balloon.

Politicians sometimes do that. Put out an idea, see what the public reaction is, but leave yourself room to back out. Dutifully, we put forth an editorial explaining why a commutation was a bad idea as did many Illinois newspapers, columnists and pundits. Even our letter writers fired up their pens and expressed their displeasure.

To say that we were disappointed when Durbin decided to follow through and write Bush a letter, pleading for mercy for Ryan, would be an understatement. Durbin’s decision permanently stains his credibility.

* More…

We cannot figure out why U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, a Springfield Democrat, believes that commuting the sentence of our corrupt former governor, George Ryan, is an idea worthy of ignoring overwhelming public sentiment against it. […]

We consider Durbin an honorable public servant with a sterling record. His decision to write this letter is a profoundly disappointing deviation from it.

* More…

His willful criminal behavior perpetuated Illinois’ worldwide infamy for corrupt elected officials, no doubt inhibiting many good women and men who might have considered public office.

* Obama defers to Bush…

President-elect Barack Obama’s office said Wednesday that he doesn’t feel it’s “appropriate” to get involved in the controversy about whether former Republican Illinois Gov. George Ryan should get executive clemency from President George W. Bush.

* Kass pounces…

But the Combine wouldn’t like it. So he punted, probably sending a tingle up the leg of Tony Rezko, the convicted influence peddler and Obama’s personal real estate fairy, now facing years in federal prison.

You can almost hear Rezko shriek, from solitary confinement, in his orange jumpsuit:

“At this time! At this time? See? He didn’t rule it out! Maybe next time is my time! Next time! Oh thank you, Barack. Next time, yeah baby!”

* I told you about this yesterday…

Democratic Illinois Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan said today that she does not agree with Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin’s decision to send a letter to President George W. Bush asking him to commute the federal corruption sentence of former Republican Gov. George Ryan.

* This piece is the only real news of the day, and I’m probably excerpting too much, but it’s worth it…

“When it comes to the law, there should not be two sets of rules - one for President Bush and Vice President Cheney and another for the rest of America,” Durbin said after Bush commuted the 30-month prison sentence of Cheney aide Scooter Libby. “Even Paris Hilton had to go to jail. No one in this administration should be above the law.”

Earlier in the summer of 2007 when talk of a Libby commutation was rampant, Durbin said, “It sends a terrible message at a time when we are demanding accountability from the generals at Walter Reed … to suggest anyone in our government is above the law.”

In commuting the sentence, Bush noted that Libby already paid a price by losing his respect and government positions. Likewise, Durbin said Monday Ryan will always have a “cloud” over him because of the conviction. […]

Durbin said Monday he always seeks to right injustice, though he said Ryan was not the victim of injustice. He portrayed his decision to help Ryan as one that sprouted routinely as any other problem brought by a constituent — but he couldn’t identify one previous time when he wrote a letter asking a president for commutation.

After the press conference, Durbin’s staff revealed there was one other time. Though it wasn’t made public at the time, it was likely when he urged for the commutation of another high profile politician, former U.S. Rep. Mel Reynolds. […]

Much like with Ryan, Durbin invoked the criminal politician’s wife as reason enough to open the prison doors.

“His wife has been in a homeless shelter,” Durbin said of Reynold’s wife at the time. “She’s been on Welfare. This has torn them apart.”

At the time, Durbin also praised Clinton’s pardoning of U.S. Rep. Dan Rostenkowski.

23 Comments

Health care, taxes and voting trends

Thursday, Dec 4, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new study will be released tomorrow on older uninsured people…

It finds that 13.3 percent of 50 to 64 year old Illinoisans — 287,084 adults — are uninsured. When adults in this age range who are officially poor are considered (an individual earning $10,400 or less a year, a couple earning $14,000 or less), 44 percent are found to lack health insurance (68,406 people).

And check this out…

The report breaks down data for Illinois by the legislative districts in the state. Senate district 13 has the highest number of uninsured 50 to 64 year olds, 8,706 residents, followed by district 17 with 8,482 and district 14 with 8,170.

Senate District 13 is President-elect Barack Obama’s former district.

* Meanwhile, another new study shows that last year only 0.9 percent of estates owed federal estate taxes in Illinois. That ain’t much. The reason the study was released…

In 2009 the per-spouse exemption is scheduled to increase to $3.5 million and in 2010 the estate tax is scheduled to disappear altogether for one year. Advocates for tax fairness have called on Congress to act before 2010 to prevent the estate tax from disappearing. If the estate tax is allowed to disappear, they fear, Congress will find it more difficult to resist the lobbyists who will insist that repeal of the estate tax be made permanent.

President-elect Barack Obama has proposed to make permanent the estate tax rules that will be in effect in 2009 under current law, including the $3.5 million per-spouse exemption. This would be an improvement in the sense that it would prevent the estate tax from disappearing. But it would be a regressive and costly giveaway to the very wealthiest families in America, because it would mean that the tax would affect even fewer estates than it does now. […]

…family farms and other closely held businesses get additional breaks from the estate tax (in addition to the exemptions all estates get) including a provision that allows the tax to be paid off over a period of 14 years. The estate tax has always been confined to serving its actual purpose — reducing extreme concentration of wealth in the hands of a few super-wealthy families, and asking these families to contribute to the society that made their wealth possible.

Here’s the Illinois breakdown. Click the pic for a larger image…

* And it doesn’t appear as though the “wealthy” are gonna squawk much about higher taxes, at least that’s not how they voted this year. From The Hill…

Take a guess. Which demographic group doubled its share of the electorate from 2004 to 2008?

Here’s a hint. It’s the same segment that increased its support for the Democratic presidential candidate more than any other.

If you answered younger voters or Latinos, you would be wrong, though we will discuss both below.

Stumped?

Americans who make over $200,000 a year doubled their share of the electorate and, while John Kerry lost that group by 28 points, Barack Obama won them by six — a 34-point shift in the margin — the biggest movement recorded in the exit poll.

In fairness, while the wealthiest segment did double its share of the electorate, it increased from just 3 percent to 6 percent. However, those who make over $100,000 constituted 26 percent of the electorate in 2008, compared to 18 percent in 2004 — nearly a 50 percent increase. Obama tied with this quarter of the electorate; Kerry had lost it by 17 points.

* Related…

* Health insurance sticker shock hits consumers

* AARP’s stealth fees often sting seniors with costlier insurance

* Durbin Concerned Relief To Lenders Could Hurt Student Borrowers

14 Comments

This just in…

Wednesday, Dec 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 4:23 pm - What a stupid thing to do…

Just days after shuttering several state parks and historic sites and asking for understanding from Illinoisans amid bleak economic times, Gov. Rod Blagojevich took his taxpayer-provided aircraft to Philadelphia to tell fellow Chicagoan Barack Obama how bad things are in the state they both live in.

Blagojevich spokesman Lucio Guerrero defended the trip and use of the state plane, noting that if the governor hadn’t gone, he’d surely have faced media criticism for his absence.

“This was a historic meeting that was attended by virtually every governor in the United States and our being there could help brings billions of dollars to Illinois,” Guerrero said Wednesday in an e-mail responding to Daily Herald questions. […]

“And, had we not gone out, I am sure you would question us on why we failed to go out and meet with the other governors and the President-elect,” Guerrero added. […]

“And lastly, it’s naive to think that we can just call a meeting with Obama because he ‘lives just a few miles away.’ The President-elect has made it very clear that no state - not even his home state - would get any special treatment or favors. The economic situation facing Illinois is real and we need help. The governor will take that message to the President-elect any way he can,” Guerrero said.

Blagojevich can’t call a local meeting with Obama because Obama wouldn’t attend. Barack ain’t no fool.

* It’s amazing to me that Blagojevich apparently didn’t learn from what happened to the Big 3 auto CEOs when they flew their corporate planes to DC to beg for money. Is he just completely daft?

“Hi, I am in desperate need of a federal bailout, which is why I spent thousands and thousands of taxpayer dollars to fly myself and my staff to this meeting.”

Ever heard of commercial flights, guv?

How do I know the governor took his staff to Philly? This is from the Philadelphia Daily News’ version of Sneed…

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich dined Monday with staff at Ralph’s (760 S. 9th). The table ordered veal and chicken parmigiania and fettucine Alfredo.

I sure hope we didn’t pay for that. [UPDATE: The governor’s office assures me that the state did not pay for the meal.]

* 4:33 pm - Attorney General Madigan today when asked about Sen. Durbin’s request that George Ryan’s sentence be commuted to time served…

“I respect the work that Dick Durbin has done for the people of the State of Illinois, but I think he is wrong to seek a commutation of Former Gov. Ryan’s sentence.

“As a prosecutor, we see the impact that crimes have on the victims. In this case, the 6 Willis children and the almost 13 million people of the State were harmed by what George Ryan did.

“His case was prosecuted and he was sentenced to 6 ½ years in prison, he should serve his time. Every person who is sent to prison suffers as do their families. This is a consequence of committing a crime.”

38 Comments

This clemency circus won’t end soon

Wednesday, Dec 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Fitz is staying out of the fray…

U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald won’t say publicly what he thinks about some politicians’ calls to free George Ryan from prison. Fitzgerald’s office prosecuted the corruption case against the former Illinois governor.

FITZGERALD: The way the system is set up, if the White House or the Justice Department asks a U.S. Attorney’s office for their opinion, we’ll give them our candid opinion privately, but we’re not going to opine publicly.

It’s not too difficult to imagine what that “candid opinion” would be.

* But Mark Kirk jumps right in…

Rejecting an idea endorsed by two top Democrats, Republican North Shore Rep. Mark Kirk sent a letter to the White House [yesterday] asking President George Bush not to commute the federal corruption sentence of former Republican Gov. George Ryan.

* As does Kirk’s fellow GOP congresscritter Tim Johnson…

“I am 100 percent and strongly opposed to any pardon for George Ryan,” added Johnson.

Um, Tim, he’s not asking for a pardon.

* Other politicos are tip-toeing away from the issue…

An aide to retiring U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood of Peoria suggested LaHood probably would not return phone calls because the Ryan-Durbin dust-up isn’t a subject he wants to talk about.

Rock Island Democrat Phil Hare also didn’t want to get pulled into the matter.

“Congressman Hare believes that it is President Bush’s decision whether or not to commute Governor Ryan’s sentence and has no further comment,” spokesman Tim Schlittner noted in an e-mail message.

But you gotta figure that this issue will give Republicans an easy way to distance themselves from past GOP corruption. So, we can probably expect more statements of outrage.

* Here’s an interesting tidbit that I missed the other day, probably because it was buried at the very end of an article…

Durbin said he would not ask Obama to commute Ryan’s sentence if Bush doesn’t.

So, he won’t put his own guy on the hot seat?

* The Daily Herald quotes some folks who think the whole idea is a long shot at best…

Bush is an ardent death penalty supporter, having presided over more than 130 executions during his tenure as Texas governor.

It’s among the myriad reasons observers and experts doubt the effort to free Ryan will be successful, pointing to Bush’s general reluctance so far to use his clemency powers and a lack of political angles that would seem to make Ryan fit as an exception.

“I think it’s a long shot for a couple reasons,” said Dan Kobil, a law professor at Capital University in Columbus, Ohio, who studies executive clemency. “One, he hasn’t served that much of his sentence.

“He doesn’t have the personal or the political connection with Bush that Scooter Libby had.” […]

“I don’t think Bush is going to do it because I simply don’t think he’ll want to do it. What’s in it for him?” said [Paul Green], director of Roosevelt University’s School of Policy Studies. “If there’s no political motive, it’s tough to figure out what Bush would do. There’s no, in my thinking, logic to any of this.”

* And Phil Kadner is on a roll…

Federal sentences are truer, but even when the evidence is overwhelming, as in the case of former Gov. George Ryan, judges are reluctant to hit elected officials with a maximum sentence. That’s why Ryan got a 6 1 / 2 - year term instead of the 10 years sought by federal prosecutors.

In the eyes of judges and lawmakers, corrupt government officials aren’t as bad as street criminals who rape, beat and murder people.

I contend their crimes are far worse. The damage they inflict on society is more widespread and longer lasting than any harm done by a violent criminal.

Indeed, if all the victims at a public corruption trial were allowed to testify at sentencing the line would stretch from Springfield to Chicago.

* Speaking of presidential mercy…

A West Side alderman is urging President Bush to pardon Larry Bloom, the City Council’s self-proclaimed “Mr. Clean” who got down in the mud with an undercover FBI mole.

Bloom, a former 5th Ward alderman, pleaded guilty in 1998 to a single felony tax charge stemming from the Operation Silver Shovel corruption probe. He served six months at the federal prison camp in Oxford, Wis., before being released on Nov. 1, 1999.

Now Ald. Ed Smith (28th) is urging President Bush to “expunge” Bloom’s conviction with a pardon.

“He committed a crime. He paid his dues. He got brought down. But he has the ability and the heart to be very productive and really help people. Why not let him do that?” Smith said.

* Related…

* For Sen. Durbin, triumph and tragedy - A senator at the top of his career. A father at the depths of his grief. A man at a crossroads.

* Should Ryan serve less time than Scott Fawell?

* Republican congressmen oppose Ryan release

* Colleague Wants Pardon For Former Ald. Bloom

23 Comments

Mixed signals galore in Obama replacement decision

Wednesday, Dec 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Here’s a great example of how screwed up the replacement process is for President-Elect Barack Obama’s Senate seat. Late last month, Congresscritter Luis Gutierrez said he was out of the running because he only wanted the slot for two years…

Gutierrez met with Gov. Blagojevich and told the governor he would like to be a “caretaker” senator for the next two years working to get comprehensive immigration reform passed in the Senate instead of fund-raising to get re-elected to the Senate in 2010, Gutierrez said.

But Blagojevich said he was looking for someone who wanted the post long-term, Gutierrez said. “It’s basically over — unless he calls me back,” Gutierrez said.

* Lynn Sweet talked to His Eminence by phone yesterday and Gov. Blagojevich said Gutierrez was mistaken…

“Not a deal-breaker,” the governor said. While Blagojevich has a strong preference to pick someone who will try to keep the seat, he said if he found “the right person,” it “wouldn’t necessarily preclude him or her from being the choice.”

Maybe he was just telling Gutierrez that Luis wasn’t “the right person,” or maybe the governor changed his mind, or maybe Gutierrez misunderstood, or maybe we can’t believe anything. I lean towards the latter.

* Sen. Dick Durbin disclosed recently that when he finally spoke with Blagojevich, the governor mentioned about 20 possible appointees. That’s a long list, and anybody could be on it, which is one reason why I cracked that joke to Laura Washington at Thom Serafin’s party last week…

The joker is wild. The joker, aka Gov. Blagojevich, is at the center of the state’s hottest political adventure. Last week, amid the chattering din at political operative Thom Serafin’s holiday soiree, I put the question of the season to Rich Miller: “Who will Blagojevich anoint as Barack Obama’s U.S. Senate replacement?”

“Who knows?” replied the Springfield wise man who runs the Capitol Fax news service. “Maybe you.”

Gasp. Seriously, Rich.

“Who knows? Who knows? Who knows?”

So I ran down just a few choice names out of the many in the hopper: Davis, Schakowsky, Gutierrez, Madigan, Duckworth, Chico, Jackson, Giannoulias, Jones, Raoul, Peters, Collins, Seals, Pritzker . . .

Who knows, who knows, who knows?

Miller, who has expertly skewered Blago’s missteps for years, knows that this joker is wild, unpredictable and having a ball. Illinois may be in an economic meltdown, and the feds may be hovering, but the governor is enjoying the speculation spotlight. He’s taking calls and dangling names. In one brief chat with U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, the gov tossed around 20 possibilities.

Who knows?

* What I also tried to explain to Washington was that the governor has not acted rationally for a very long while. To those, including myself, who have said in the past that the governor would make a choice which is in his best interest, I now say: How can a six-year governor with a 13 percent job approval rating truly understand what’s in his best political interest?

* Back to Lynn Sweet’s column…

In a phone interview, I asked Blagojevich if he considered the vacancy an African-American seat. “I think it is a factor of a great deal of weight in my mind but it is not the only factor or the only consideration, and somebody could be the next Barack Obama who happens not to be the African American, and that person would be hard not to make a U.S. senator.”

There is no “next Barack Obama” in Illinois. He’s one of a kind.