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The Obama replacement circus gets even crazier

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I didn’t think it was possible, but J3’s ambition has reached a new high

U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2nd) is favored among a crowded field of possible replacements for President-elect Barack Obama’s vacant U.S. Senate seat, a new poll suggests.

The Zogby International poll conducted after Election Day says 21 percent of likely Illinois voters want Gov. Rod Blagojevich to appoint Jackson to Obama’s seat, which expires in January 2011. His nearest competitor is Tammy Duckworth, director of the Illinois Department of Vet erans Affairs, who was supported by 14 percent of those responding to the poll.

It goes without saying that 21 percent ain’t exactly a mandate.

Here’s the list of tested Democrats, which, by the way, was sent to reporters from an official congressional e-mail address. Click for a larger image…

* “bored now” has this analysis at the newly revamped and freshly energized Illinoize

The biggest problem with the survey is that none of the names are well known across the state. While Zogby tried to obfuscate this by combining the “Not Familiar” and “No Response” categories in his public release of the poll. The client (Jesse Jackson) undoubtedly got a better breakdown here.

The only thing we can really determine is that the Congressman really wants the job — enough to commission a poll and release the findings.

Yep.

* More from the poll

In two prospective Senate races, Jackson would defeat Republican Congressman Ray LaHood by a 50% to 31% margin, the survey shows. Among the 15% who were not certain about whom they would support, nearly two said they were leaning toward Jackson for every one that was leaning toward supporting LaHood. […]

In a prospective match-up against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, Jackson wins 48% support, compared to 32% for Kirk. Among the 15% who are leaning toward one candidate or the other, Kirk has a 10% to 7% edge, the survey shows.

* Bill Dennis wonders about the inclusion of LaHood

Really? I’ve heard LaHood mentioned as a candidate for governor. This is the first mention I’ve heard that he might run for Senate.

* Laura Washington probably said it best this week…

U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. has been furiously pitching for weeks. His fingerprints are all over the incessant speculation about his candidacy. Triple J is probably speaking Senatese in his sleep. Time to cool it, congressman.

* And, for whatever reason, The Hill turned to former director of the NAACP’s Washington bureau, Hilary Shelton, for comment

Shelton also urged that an African-American be selected to take Obama’s Senate seat.

“We strongly believe the Senate should be much more integrated,” said Shelton. Obama is the only African-American member of the Senate, and only the third since Reconstruction.

“Gov. [Rod] Blagojevich [D] should choose someone who is consistent with the will of the people who elected Obama, someone who represents the values and priorities that Obama ran on when he was elected to the U.S. Senate,” Shelton said.

* Roger Simon of the Politico muses

Gov. Blagojevich is not a fan of Jackson’s either, and, personalities and feuds aside, the argument used against Jackson is that he would “lack appeal downstate” when he had to run for election to the Senate seat in 2010. Lacking appeal downstate is code for, “White people won’t vote for him.”

A Chicago political insider whom I trust says that Jackson is on a list of possible replacements for Obama but that Jackson has only an outside chance.

And continues…

One intriguing name on the shortlist is that of Emil Jones, 73, currently president of the Illinois Senate. He was one of Obama’s political patrons, is close to the governor and is an African-American, yet I got snorts of derision when I ran his name past some other Illinois sources of mine. That’s because Jones is from the old school — he started out as a sewer inspector, which is not bad training for a life in politics — and is not a modern, ready-for-TV candidate, possessing an orator’s tongue. He is a Chicago pol — the ring tone on his cell phone is the theme from “The Godfather” — but he would be a “place holder” only and would not run in 2010. He would fill the seat with an African-American and give the other contenders plenty of time to start their campaigns.

There are many, many reasons not to appoint Jones and Jackson, but all the pundits are getting way ahead of themselves here.

* Related…

* Why 2010 Won’t Be Like 1994

* Durbin has a favored Obama replacement — but he’s not talking

* Durbin talks about daughter’s death before election

* Durbin round up

  63 Comments      


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