If Urbana attorney Erika Harold is successful in her GOP primary attempt to oust Congressman Rodney Davis after his freshman term, she’ll have to win without the help of influential downstate House Republicans. Altogether, 29 endorsed Davis for re-election next year.
A week after Harold’s announcement that she’s challenging Davis in the 2014 primary, State Rep. Wayne Rosenthal (R-Morrisonville), Chairman of the Downstate GOP Caucus, announced they are endorsing the incumbent.
The Downstate GOP Caucus consists of 29 House Republican members, including Rosenthal and state Reps. Adam Brown (R-Champaign), Dan Brady (R-Normal), Rich Brauer, (R-Petersburg), C D Davidsmeyer (R-Jacksonville), Chad Hayes (R-Catlin), Dwight Kay (R-Glen Carbon), Charlie Meier (R-Okawville), Bill Mitchell (R-Forsyth), Raymond Poe (R-Springfield) and Keith Sommer (R-Morton).
“Rodney Davis has been a great friend and ally to the families of the 13th District,” said Rosenthal. “In just 150 days he has proven that he has what it takes to make a difference in Washington. The Downstate GOP Caucus proudly stands as one to endorse Rodney’s re-election.”
* But elections are not won or lost via cable TV appearances or blog posts. They’re won in the trenches, and so far, she hasn’t been impressive…
She really didn’t look the part last week, drawing meager crowds at her campaign appearances. There also were newspaper and TV stories quoting central Illinois Republicans who said they had hoped Harold wouldn’t challenge Davis and would seek another office instead.
As campaign rollouts go, this one could have been better.
* Meanwhile, I haven’t really heard any rumors that any of these retirements are imminent, but Roll Call has a list of possible replacements…
“There are ambitious, powerful politicians who have been around for a long time who have deep, deep Chicago relationships, and when the dominoes fall in any of these seats, they will be free-for-alls,” one Democratic consultant said. “The Chicago races are the ones to look at.”
Local operatives rattled off a number of candidates likely to run when Democratic Rep. Bobby L. Rush, who has represented the 1st District for 11 terms, decides to retire.
• State Sen. Kwame Raoul has served in the state Senate since 2004, when he was appointed to fill the vacancy that President Barack Obama left after he won his bid for the U.S. Senate. Operatives say Raoul’s state Senate district is “tailor-made for advancement” because it includes the downtown Chicago and Hyde Park areas, which are filled with wealthy and influential Democrats.
• Operatives describe first-term Chicago Alderman Will Burns, who helped run Obama’s state Senate races, as someone with close ties to the president’s political machine.
• Alderman Michelle Harris is an influential member of Chicago’s city council.
Local Democrats are also watching 11-term Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez in the 4th District. Democratic consultants speculate that if an immigration bill is passed this Congress, Gutierrez could decide to retire.
The subsequent primary to replace him would be crowded, likely pitting South Side Chicago politicians of Mexican descent and North Side politicians of Puerto Rican and South American descent against each another.
Potential candidates in the 4th District include:
• Former 1st Ward Alderman Manny Flores, who now serves as the director of the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation.
• First-term state Rep. Silvana Tabares, who defeated a highly touted labor candidate last cycle.
• State Sen. Iris Martinez, who currently serves as chairwoman of the Latino Caucus in the state Senate.
• State Sen. Martin Sandoval.
Finally, local operatives say if Democratic Rep. Danny K. Davis ever retires from the 7th District, it would spark a battle royal between four Democratic hopefuls:
• Cook County Recorder of Deeds Karen Yarbrough. She has also served in the state House.
• Alderman Bob Fioretti.
• Alderman Brendan Reilly.
• State Sen. Don Harmon.
So far, it’s just wishful thinking among possible replacements. Sid Yates outlived a couple generations of would-be successors. That’s been the case with those three so far.
* Related…
* Rodney Davis: NSA records might be too much information, distraction: Davis said after sitting in on a classified briefing Tuesday, he doesn’t questions the NSA’s intent, but said some might fear a ‘government of intimidation’ in light of the IRS and leak investigation controversies. “I disagree with the process. We need to be sure that we just don’t dig up too much information to where it clogs up our ability to get to those who are trying to hurt Americans,” Davis said.
* As I told subscribers earlier today, the most pervasive rumor at the Statehouse is that the gay marriage bill will be called for a vote today. I’m not sure what to believe at this point. Here’s the Illinois Observer’s take…
A top Democrat told The Illinois Observer on Wednesday night, “The roll call is in the high 50s. It’s close; it’s almost there.” […]
Some pro-marriage equality activists, who have been chafing at the Illinois House’s inaction this spring while other states have swiftly approved their own same sex marriage bills, have grown increasingly frustrated with House Speaker Michael Madigan, arguing that he only needs to “twist some arms” to get to 60.
“Madigan is loathe to force a member to vote against his or her district and to anger a majority of his or her constituents,” said an insider. “That’s how expensive primary challenges are created, which waste money needed to beat Republicans in the fall.”
The insider also noted that a string of controversial votes taken during the spring legislative session could ignite multiple primary contests for Democrats next year.
“The pension vote and the conceal carry vote have already exposed multiple Democrats to potential primary challenges,” said the insider. “A risky same sex marriage vote will just expand the pool of Democratic incumbents staring at a primary fight.”
There’s no doubt that Chicago-area Democrats could be looking at primary challengers because of this year’s controversial session.
* Meanwhile, President Obama spoke about the gay marriage bill last night in Chicago…
America is probably more tolerant, more accepting of difference than any time in our history. Obviously, you’ve got an African American President, a former and soon to be again female Speaker of the House. The work that we did together to end “don’t ask, don’t tell” is something that I could not be prouder of. But we also know that there’s still a lot of people who are excluded in our society and we’ve got more work to do.
Here in Illinois, we’ve got a vote on same-sex marriage that’s going to be coming up in the state legislature. And I just want to say for the record it’s something that I deeply support. I wrestled with this for a long time and I am absolutely convinced it is the right thing to do. And we have to make sure that wherever we go, we are reminding people that the essence of America is that everybody is treated equally under the law without exception.
