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*** UPDATED x2 *** Rasmussen: Giannoulias pulls ahead of Kirk

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters finds Giannoulias ahead of Kirk 42% to 39%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 15% are undecided.

In October, the two men were tied at 41% each. In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% lead over Giannoulias.

So, Giannoulias has managed to flip the numbers since August. The other Democrats still trail Kirk, but they’re closing the gap…

Kirk remains ahead of another Democratic hopeful, Cheryle Jackson, president of the Chicago Urban League and a former top aide to disgraced Governor Rod Blagojevich, but his lead has shrunk dramatically. Ahead of Jackson by 17 points – 47% to 30% - in October, he now leads just 42% to 39%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and 15% are not sure.

The Republican holds a similar 42% to 38% lead over Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, another contender for the Democratic senatorial nomination. Kirk led Hoffman 43% to 33% in October. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided, while three percent (3%) favor another candidate.

* Meanwhile…

Fifty-one percent (51%) approve of Governor Pat Quinn’s performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove. But Illinois voters are nearly three times as likely to strongly disapprove rather than strongly approve of the job he’s doing.

President Obama’s Illinois approval/disapproval numbers are 58-42, and that’s way better than Rasmussen’s national number of 47-51. Running against Obama is not a great idea here.

* From the toplines…

A proposal has been made to house some Guantanamo prison inmates in Illinois at the Thomson correctional facility. Do you favor or oppose housing Guantanamo prisoners at the Thomson correctional facility in Illinois?

39% Favor
51% Oppose
10% Not sure

No surprise there. The crosstabs show that Republicans oppose the plan 70-28, while a plurality of Democrats support it, 49-37.

Quinn’s job approval…

8% Strongly approve
43% Somewhat approve
25% Somewhat disapprove
22% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

His support remains soft, but the opposition is strengthening.

Afghanistan is becoming somewhat of an issue in the Democratic US Senate primary, with Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman questioning the president’s new plan. But the crosstabs show large support for the president’s proposal among Democrats. 62 percent of Democrats “overall” favor the plan, 60 percent of liberals back it and 82 percent of African-Americans support it as well. Jackson is the most opposed of all the candidates, but that issue doesn’t appear to work well with African-American voters.

How it was done…

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 9, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From a Mark Kirk press release…

Kirk Widens Lead over Giannoulias among Key Independent Voters to 34 Points in Latest Rasmussen Poll

Survey Shows Kirk and Giannoulias Remain in Statistical Dead Heat despite Democrat’s Network TV Ad Blitz

Northbrook, Ill. – A non-partisan poll released by Rasmussen Reports today shows Republican Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk widening his lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points despite Giannoulias’ early launch of network television ads to boost his numbers.

Responding to TV ads launched by Democrat David Hoffman, Giannoulias launched his own network television ad campaign at the beginning of the month to boost his name recognition and favorable ratings. But according to the Rasmussen survey, Kirk maintains a 50-32 favorable to unfavorable rating compared to Giannoulias’ 48-36 fav/unfav. Kirk holds a net positive strongly favorable/unfavorable rating of 13-8 while Giannoulias holds an even intensity ratio of 14-14.

The survey released today shows Kirk leading Giannoulias among key independent voters 54-20. In October, Rasmussen showed Kirk leading Giannoulias among this group 53-24. While the October poll showed both Kirk and Giannoulias at 41 with a 4.5-point margin of error, the survey released today shows Giannoulias with a slight 42-39 edge – remaining a statistical dead heat within the margin of error. A November 3rd poll by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies showed Kirk with a 44-38 advantage.

“Despite more than a week of Giannoulias network television advertising, Congressman Kirk widened his lead over Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points without any television advertising from his own campaign,” Kirk spokesman Eric Elk said. “In addition, the survey shows Congressman Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias remain in a statistical dead heat. With a proven record of fighting tax increases, reining in spending and spurring economic growth, Congressman Mark Kirk brings the experience, integrity and reform-minded leadership Illinois needs to create jobs, end corruption and get our state back on track.”

*** UPDATE 2 *** From Giannoulias spokesperson Kati Phillips…

“Bizarre press release aside (which shows him losing), Mark Kirk can’t hide the fact that voters tend not to like flip-floppers who put politics before principles. Whether it’s having it both ways on earmarks, women’s rights, cap n trade, or Sarah Palin’s endorsement, voters know a pander bear when they see one.”

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Doom and the embarrassment of desperation

Monday, Nov 16, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Updated with related stories, bumped up for visibility and comments opened.]

* A proposal to move less than 100 Gitmo detainees to the empty Thomson State Prison is setting off some extreme partisan fireworks…

Rep. Mark Kirk, the leading Republican candidate for Obama’s former U.S. Senate seat, rattled off a letter to the president warning that “if your administration brings Al Qaeda terrorists to Illinois, our state and the Chicago Metropolitan Area will become ground zero for Jihadist terrorist plots, recruitment and radicalization.

“As home to America’s tallest building, we should not invite Al Qaeda to make Illinois its number one target,” Kirk also wrote.

And…

In addition to Manzullo and Kirk, Republican Reps. Judy Biggert of Hinsdale and Peter Roskam of Wheaton came out swinging against the proposal Saturday.

“Terrorists have no place on American soil,” Roskam said.

Biggert, whose district covers parts of DuPage and Will counties, said, “These detainees pose a unique threat to America’s security. They should (be) kept away from our shores, and far from America’s heartland.”

There’s most certainly an important federal policy debate here and they should definitely have at it. We need to have a debate in Illinois as well. For instance, should we be doing this just because the locals want some economic development and the state could use the cash?

But before we do anything, let’s try to calmly look at the facts instead of getting all crazy and predicting the end of the world. For instance…

According to data provided by Traci L. Billingsley, spokeswoman for the U.S. Bureau of Prisons, federal facilities on American soil currently house 216 international terrorists and 139 domestic terrorists. Some of these miscreants have been locked up here since the early 1990s. None of them has escaped. At the most secure prisons, nobody has ever escaped, period.

So, despite Congressman Roskam’s claim, lots of terrorists are already locked up in American prisons.

And…

Of the total number, 35 [terrorist] inmates are housed in federal prisons in Illinois, including Ali al-Marri, who pleaded guilty in federal court to conspiring to provide material support to al Qaeda. Al-Marri is serving eight years and four months at the federal penitentiary in Marion, Illinois.

They’re already right here in Illinois.

And…

But the apocalyptic rhetoric rarely addresses this: Thirty-three international terrorists, many with ties to al-Qaeda, reside in a single federal prison in Florence, Colo., with little public notice.

Detained in the supermax facility in Colorado are Ramzi Yousef, who headed the group that carried out the first bombing of the World Trade Center in February 1993; Zacarias Moussaoui, convicted of conspiring in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001; Ahmed Ressam, of the Dec. 31, 1999, Los Angeles airport millennium attack plots; Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, conspirator in several plots, including one to assassinate President George W. Bush; and Wadih el-Hage, convicted of the 1998 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Kenya.

Those are very evil people who did very evil things. Yet, nothing has happened to the area and the local politicians don’t seem to be screaming bloody murder and predicting an apocalypse.

And…

Q. Is this a done deal?

A. No. It will likely require approval by Congress and at least the ‘OK’ from Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn.

Q. How many detainees would come to the Thomson prison?

A. Not clear. The Obama administration will only say a “limited number.” U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin says it will be “fewer than 100.” […]

Q. Is the Thomson prison secure?

A. It is a maximum-security prison with eight compartmentalized, 200-cell units. On the 146-acre site, the prison is protected by a dual-sided electrical stun fence, 312 cameras and armed towers. The Obama administration would also plan to upgrade security, making it one of the highest security prisons in the country. Detainees would be kept apart from the general population.

The locals seem fine with it…

News that the federal government seems interested in transferring detainees from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to the Thomson Correctional Center was greeted warmly in this small, rural farm town along the Iowa border.

After holding out hope that the sprawling $145 million prison might improve the economic conditions in this remote area of the state, residents say any prisoners would be a welcomed sight.

“It would help the businesses here, and God knows we could use that,” said Kay Lawton, 59, a Thomson resident. “It doesn’t matter to me who they bring here.”

Again, this shouldn’t be done just because that part of the state needs jobs. And it shouldn’t be done just because the state government needs money. And it shouldn’t (and won’t) be done until it is thoroughly debated in Congress.

Despite the evidence, nobody can say for sure that Congressman Kirk is wrong, of course, and that helps make his scary outburst so politically effective. And as clear as it is to me that history shows there’s no serious threat, I’m still not completely comfortable with this Thomson idea. Kirk may look like the boy who cried wolf, but, to me, the proposal makes Illinois look downright desperate. It reminds me a little of the cash-strapped counties which take in garbage from wealthier counties to make a few bucks. As a citizen, I’m embarrassed about the whole situation.

* UPDATE: Related…

* Durbin: Gitmo plan opponents play on fears: An Illinois prison that may house terrorism suspects now at Guantanamo will be inspected by a federal team today, a day after Gov. Quinn and Sen. Dick Durbin stumped for the plan — calling it “a dream come true.”

* Durbin, Quinn see economic boon

* Quinn, Durbin discuss benefits of Ill. prison housing Gitmo detainees

* Quinn, Durbin discuss plan for Gitmo inmates

* Pols square off on detainees

* Illinois prison in running to house Gitmo detainees

* $140 mil. prison little used since it was built in ‘01

* Gitmo detainee transfer proposal draws mixed reactions

* Officials to inspect Ill jail for Gitmo inmates

52 Comments

We need help and we need it now

Friday, Nov 13, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My Sun-Times column today is about an issue I’ve discussed several times since the federal “stimulus” plan was first debated. The states are getting the shaft and it is hurting everyone…

This winter, when you’re freezing your tail off waiting extra long for a city bus because of CTA budget cuts, you might want to blame President Obama.

OK, maybe not just Obama. The people responsible for the financial systems meltdown started this disaster.

The economic meltdown that began on Wall Street and then morphed into our current “Great Recession” has all but dried up state and local government revenues.

Obama did support a major cash infusion to state and local governments, but he backed away from a more ambitious plan when “moderate” Republicans and rural Democrats objected. You can blame them for your long bus wait as well.

Illinois did get some money out of the deal, but it wasn’t nearly enough, and the resulting deficit is absolutely crippling.

The political climate makes it impossible to raise taxes to stem the state’s frightening wave of red ink. It’s so bizarre out there that moderate Republican gubernatorial candidate Kirk Dillard now refers to Obama as a “socialist.” That’s the same Kirk Dillard who made a TV ad for Obama’s presidential campaign.

Without revenues, Illinois has been cutting services, borrowing short-term and delaying billions in payments to human service providers and other vendors.

And because the state is in such a bind, it can’t help properly fund the CTA. Gov. Quinn came up with a plan this week to let senior citizens keep their free rides, but it amounts to chump change, and the overall reorganization plan merely delays the day of final reckoning for a year or two — if that.

Meanwhile, transit routes are being slashed and jobs are being cut during the worst employment market in memory.

Even worse, an absolutely essential public asset is being allowed to whither on the vine. Politicians such as Quinn fear that a fare increase will result in a voter backlash. Voters are just fed up with Illinois politicians getting in their pockets, so he and the others do have a point. But how long can the transit system remain viable if it’s being scaled back year after year?

Now, back to Obama.

The projected state deficit is about 2 percent of Illinois’ gross domestic product. Because we can’t print money or borrow long-term like the federal government does, the deficit is a direct drag on Illinois’ economy. For instance, when the state pays a vendor six months late, that vendor has to borrow to make payroll, and because businesses can’t borrow like they used to, workers are let go, or vendors go under.

Illinois is not alone. Revenues have dried up for almost every state and local government in the nation, so they’ve cut, cut, cut. While Obama is trying to hit the economic gas pedal, state and local governments are slamming on the economic brakes. National liberal blogger Duncan Black has taken to calling governors “50 little Hoovers” for their Herbert Hoover-like economic policies of cutting their budgets during an economic catastrophe.

Black, who has a Ph.D. in economics from Brown University, is part of a growing chorus of people who are demanding that the federal government do something to prevent state and local governments from derailing a recovery.

The Democrats who run things in Washington, including Obama, ought to listen. If they want to get re-elected next year, they have to fix the economy. And they can’t make the fix stick if every forward step they take is partially or totally nullified by the states’ budget problems.

Your long bus wait is just a symptom of the overall problem. And it’s going to get worse unless Obama acts soon.

* Related…

* State’s budget crunch squeezing Ill. universities

* University of Illinois student instructors threaten strike

* CTA approves budget without fare increases

* GOP criticizes move to commit state cash to CTA

* We all just got stuck with a fare hike

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