The election is over and the people have spoken; they want change. From the top down, voters are not satisfied with the status quo, which they demonstrated from the federal level down to the state legislature. It is incumbent upon us to come together to address the serious issues facing our state. I sincerely hope the Democrat majority will now choose to join us to move Illinois forward. We look forward to working with them in the coming weeks.
* Statement from Senate President John Cullerton on yesterday’s election…
Look, the numbers on each side of the aisle may change but our problems haven’t. The sooner everyone can set aside politics and focus on policy, the better.
Don’t forget, this summer, before the campaigns kicked in, we had begun working together and making progress. I’m optimistic that can resume.
On p. 6 of its special Election Edition for the Weekly Credit Outlook for Public Finance released today, Moody’s notes voters in the State of Illinois (rated Baa2/negative outlook) decision to amend their state constitution and restrict use of transportation revenues to highway, mass-transit and related projects is credit negative because it cuts off the state’s ability to draw on about $3 billion of annual transportation revenue that could otherwise help address fiscal pressure from pension contribution demands and reduced income taxes. The so-called “Lockbox Amendment” stipulates that revenue collected from the use of motor vehicles (such as fuel taxes or registration fees), or from transportation infrastructure (such as highway tolls), can be applied only to transportation purposes. The amendment means the state will lose its ability to tap transportation funds to ease budgetary pressures. Illinois’ annual income tax revenue has declined almost $5 billion since January 2015, when rate cuts took effect, while pension contribution requirements have risen by almost $1 billion.
The $3.2 billion of Illinois fuel taxes and transportation fees combined accounted for about 6% of the state’s own-source revenue. In addition, the state had $1.1 billion in highway tolls, bringing total transportation revenues subject to the new provision to $4.3 billion. While the state does not anticipate that the lockbox amendment will have a material impact on its finances, the vast majority of Illinois’ $4.3 billion in transportation-derived revenue already is allocated to transportation purposes by statute. The Illinois State Toll Highway Authority (Aa3/stable) collects tolls. After the authority covers principal and interest on its debt, it can only spend residual toll revenues on its highway operating and maintenance purposes. Even before the lockbox amendment, these revenues were not available to the state government for general purposes.
Illinois has reallocated funds dedicated to transportation on several occasions in recent years. The lockbox amendment would preclude such practices, in hopes of controlling a tendency to defer maintenance of transportation infrastructure. At the same time, the amendment removes the option of drawing on transportation revenue for general operating needs, which has been useful for Illinois, a state that faces an approximately $9 billion backlog in unpaid bills. The amendment also means that, as the state contemplates how to raise general operating revenue in the future, it will not be able to consider using new transportation-related taxes.
Moody’s declaration of “credit positive” or “credit negative” does not connote a rating or outlook change. It is indicative of the impact of a distinct event or development as one of many credit factors affecting the issuer.
Emphasis added because I don’t think anyone ever really focused on that point.
“My sense is that without a fundamental change in the fiscal conditions in Illinois (that is, a strategic plan to address the budget deficits), Illinois will continue to underperform surrounding states and lag, as before, in employment growth.
“We need a governor who knows how to negotiate, and we need a new Illinois House speaker with a vision for the state rather than an objective function of maintaining his powerful position.
“Firms have enormous flexibility as to where they can locate or expand their businesses. The one thing they need is confidence that they will not be hit with an unexpected tax increase. If there is a plan and it is followed (even with stabilizing tax increases), then businesses know the operating environment, and they can make decisions accordingly.
“We have incredible assets in the state — especially embodied in human capital and in infrastructure — but without some long-term, transparent strategy, we will just limp along.”
In 2015, Illinois generated 41 percent more electricity than we need, even as power demand shrunk 3.8 percent since 2011
Sierra Club and NRDC have joined forces with coal-plant operator Dynegy and nuke-plant and ComEd owner Exelon for a monster bill to bailout both unneeded nukes and unneeded coal plants
The energy bill would subsidize unnecessary nukes, meaning Illinois ratepayers will effectively be paying more so ratepayers in other states who use our surplus power will pay less
“…that’s just another incentive for commercial and industrial consumers – and employers – to jump the border”
Social services have been devastated, the state is now two years without a budget, but Exelon would have you believe our top legislative priority is passing a $16 BILLION RATE HIKE for a company that just announced quarterly PROFITS of $841 MILLION to prop up power plants that cannot compete in the Illinois energy market.
JUST SAY NO TO THE EXELON BAILOUT
BEST Coalition is a 501C4 nonprofit group of dozens of business, consumer and government groups, as well as large and small businesses. Visit www.noexelonbailout.com.
The picture for Illinois’ state employee pensions has become bleaker, with a $12 billion increase in unfunded liabilities that already top the $100 billion mark and a $1 billion increase in the state’s scheduled contributions next year.
The updated data comes from fiscal 2016 draft actuarial reports released by the state’s five retirement funds and its preliminary contribution requests for fiscal 2018, which were approved by the system’s boards at recent meetings.
The cash-strapped state tentatively will owe $8.8 billion to the state’s five funds in fiscal 2018. That’s up 12.7% from the $7.8 billion the state is paying in fiscal 2017, which began July 1.
The state’s unfunded liabilities, meanwhile, rose to $126.5 billion in fiscal 2016 from $112.9 billion a year earlier and the funded ratio deteriorated to 39.2% from 40.9%.
The funds must submit a preliminary contribution amount by a Nov. 1 state deadline.
Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
As the head of the Illinois AFL-CIO, I know that this is true.
I also know that the Future Energy Jobs Bill – soon headed to lawmakers in Springfield – delivers.
This bill is the product of extensive negotiations between consumer advocates, environmental groups, energy providers, and labor unions and is critical to the working men and women of Illinois.
The bill protects 4,200 good-paying Illinois jobs, creates tens of thousands more clean energy jobs, and also provides job training for Illinois workers. This is all achieved with while maintaining Illinois’ competitive energy prices.
There isn’t a moment to lose. Illinois lawmakers who support good-paying Illinois jobs need to SUPPORT the Future Energy Jobs Bill today.
* The transportation funding lockbox amendment overwhelmingly prevailed in every Illinois county, despite lots and lots of harsh editorials and columnists who regularly rail on the General Assembly for an inability to do its job. Well, the lockbox amendment does the job for legislators and that seemed abundantly clear to fed-up voters.
And now we’re stuck with it.
* Meanwhile, Donald Trump won McHenry County by 8 points. Mark Kirk won it by 10. Democratic state Rep. Jack Franks won the county board chairman’s race by 15 points. Franks represents only about a third of that county in the House. Say what you want about him, but the man knows how to win.
Despite efforts to derail the Republican Fifth District Appellate Court candidates’ campaigns with lawyer-funded attack ads, the Republican candidates are leading by roughly 10 percent margins with 99 percent of the precincts reporting.
For the vacancy created through the retirement of Bruce Stewart, Madison County Circuit Judge John Barberis is leading with a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent. Barberis has received 305,727 votes, while Williamson County Circuit Judge Brad Bleyer has received 238,255 votes.
Governor Bruce Rauner today released the following statement:
“This has been a long, grueling campaign cycle, both nationally and locally. For the good of the people of Illinois, let’s put the election behind us. Let’s come together and focus on the future and improving the quality of life for every family in our state.
“The people of Illinois deserve prompt, bi-partisan action to solve problems and get good things done – to make Illinois more competitive so we can be more compassionate – to enact truly balanced budgets along with reforms that grow more jobs and protect taxpayers.
* A metric ton of issues has been put on the back burner. Not nearly enough revenue is coming in the doors and a newly passed transportation funding lockbox constitutional amendment will block another “easy” fix. Chicago desperately needs action on education funding. Unions want help with power plant and alt energy jobs and assurances that state workers won’t be forced out on strike. Businesses are screaming for relief. Property taxes are too darned high. Criminal justice reform is now on the precipice because the country just elected a strong “law and order” president. The punditry is enraged about the lack of political reforms.
You name the problem, we pretty much got it.
* There’s room for a deal and more than enough lame ducks to get it done. The question will become how much Rauner wants and if the Democrats even engage.
Most people don’t always have the money to pay bills as they arrive. If you write a big check before the next paycheck comes in, bad things can happen.
The same thing applies to the comptroller. Even in flush times, if she pays the state’s bills (or even a few large state bills) as they come in the door, she can easily crash the state’s finances. But without a proper state budget, and amid a severe revenue shortage caused by the partial expiration last year of the income tax hike, these are far from flush times.
So a hostile comptroller would be a bad thing for the governor. Democrat Mendoza could use the power of the checkbook to force the Republican governor into a more compliant position, even without actually crashing state finances.
Munger has used her position to highlight the state’s massive $8 billion-plus bill backlog in a way that puts pressure on the General Assembly. She’s mainly done this by refusing to pay state legislators when their checks are due, putting them in the same payment line with social services agencies.
And she’s also often taken heat off the governor (or put heat on his detractors) by quickly paying (or not so quickly paying) invoices at his request. The governor’s office has been running a triage operation for well over a year to keep vital government services from crashing due to lack of revenue while simultaneously battling a belligerent Legislature. A friendly comptroller has been a great help to him.
This impasse could continue throughout Rauner’s entire first term, so an antagonistic comptroller could refuse to honor his requests, which would put him in an awful spot.
Mendoza is a pleasant person who can also be a sharp-elbowed street fighter. “I will be an independent, truth-telling fiscal watchdog,” she pledged during the Democratic National Convention in July, “not a lapdog to Rauner.”
So unlike Munger, who has used her media conferences about unpaid bills to blast the General Assembly, Mendoza could use her position to constantly harangue Rauner, perhaps also doing what Topinka did to undermine the credibility of the Quinn administration by showing how it used gimmicks to mask the size of the deficit.
In other words, a lot is at stake here.
* SEIU Healthcare is strongly urging that battle…
Following is the statement of SEIU Healthcare Illinois Executive Vice President Greg Kelley in response to Susana Mendoza’s victory as comptroller:
“By electing Susana Mendoza tonight, Illinois voters are demanding accountability of Bruce Rauner. He spent millions for his hand-picked ‘wing man’ Leslie Munger. Susana will be anything BUT a wing man, and instead will be positioned to bring true scrutiny to this administration’s misplaced priorities.
“As a REAL watchdog of public resources, we are hopeful Susana will ensure that those Illinoisans who need it the most, including people with disabilities, seniors and children, are not put in line behind corporate special interests or Wall Street billionaires.
“But for the budget crisis manufactured entirely by Bruce Rauner, the comptroller’s race would have been a sleepy affair. But in this troubling period, Illinois now has an independent fighter who we are confident will hold the powerful to account.”
Mendoza struck back by attempting to turn the focus in the race to Rauner. “I’m running against (Rauner), and when this election is over and I beat him on Nov. 8, he’s not going to be able to hide behind some story that he got beat by the big powerful Irishman named Mike Madigan from the South Side,” Mendoza told the Tribune last month. “I’m going to make sure he owns the fact that he lost to a little 5-foot-3 Mexican woman called Susana Mendoza from the city of Chicago. So he’ll know my name then.”
During her victory speech Tuesday night, Mendoza promised to fight the good fight.
“Win, lose or draw I stay true to my cause,” she said. “And I know how to stand up to big bullies.”
“We were outspent by millions of dollars by just three billionaires who think they can buy our political system,” Mendoza said during her victory speech Tuesday night. “They think they can buy our democracy. Well they’re wrong and we sent a clear message today: The state of Illinois is not for sale.”
“I believe that the comptroller’s office has a much bigger role to play in terms of being an advocate for fiscal sanity in Springfield,” Mendoza told the Sun-Times.
Mendoza also invoked the memory of Topinka, who she called her friend and a “bridge building” who brought people together.
“I really truly do miss her, but I think that she would be proud of what Illinoisans did by sending me to the comptroller’s office today,” Mendoza said.
Yeah, Judy probably wouldn’t be a huge Rauner fan (to say the least), but she was, after all, a Republican.
“Illinois has not seen a more divisive or visceral series of campaigns than we just witnessed. Remarkably, hardly any of these candidates focused on the most important issue – Illinois’ deplorable financial situation. Illinois is now the laughingstock of the nation. But there is nothing laughable about our small and large businesses packing up and moving across state borders, our students being priced out of college, or our most vulnerable citizens being denied critical social services. The people of Illinois deserve better. We deserve elected officials who will do their jobs and pass a responsible, balanced budget. Anything short of that is unacceptable.”
[Gov. Bruce Rauner] spent more than $30 million dollars bankrolling legislative races.
It’s part of his attempt to break the Democratic grip on the legislature — a grip that thus far has stifled Rauner’s agenda. That, in turn, has led to a partisan stalemate that’s left Illinois without a real budget, and with an all-too-real deficit.
Rauner has frequently put the onus on Democrats to break the stalemate, with comments like this one from last year: “If the Speaker and the General Assembly doesn’t want to take up reforms, doesn’t want to pass any real structural reforms, then they should go ahead and pass a tax hike,” he said. “They have a supermajority. They’re fully capable of increasing the taxes.”
• In the 71st District, Republican Tony McCombie defeated incumbent Mike Smiddy, D-Port Byron, 63 percent to 37 percent with 92 percent of precincts counted.
• In the 79th House district, in what’s thought to be the most expensive legislative campaign in the state at $4.5 million, Rep. Kate Cloonen, D-Kankakee, fell to her GOP challenger, attorney Lindsay Parkhurst, 46 percent to 54 percent.
• In the 117th District, Republican Dave Severin ousted Rep. John Bradley, D-Marion, 53 percent to 47 percent.
And challenger Jerry Long was leading Rep. Andy Skoog, D-Peru, 49 percent to 51 percent, with 56 percent of precincts reporting.
One Republican incumbents also fell: Dwight Kay of Edwardsville, who lost to Democratic challenger Katie Stuart in the 117th District.
On the Senate side, incumbent Gary Forby, D-Benton, was defeated by Republican Dale Fowler in the 59th District.
That Smiddy loss was huuuuge, man. Wow. Cloonen won by about a hundred votes each of the last two cycles, but got creamed this time around. Bradley is a member of Madigan’s leadership team, so that had to sting.
Almost all the votes have since been counted in Rep. Skoog’s district and the incumbent appears to be going down. But at least he stayed classy…
Andy Skoog barred media from entering his event. He said they could only come if he won.
Statement from Speaker Madigan on Tuesday’s Election Results
“Voters stated clearly that they wish to maintain a wide Democratic majority in the Illinois House of Representatives and maintain a strong check on Bruce Rauner and his anti-middle class agenda. Voters said they support the vision of the Democratic Party with the victories of Tammy Duckworth and Susana Mendoza.
“Democrats value the voters’ trust and we will continue to protect the middle class and those who don’t have access to billionaires and lobbyists.
“Republicans’ millions spent, coupled with the Trump headwind in downstate Illinois, created a difficult environment for many Democratic candidates. Rauner and his billionaire allies spent unprecedented millions – outspending Democratic candidates by wide margins – to push their agenda of increasing profits for big corporations at the expense of middle-class families.
“Illinois residents want strong schools, funding for domestic violence shelters and veterans’ homes, and a strong middle class with good wages. I hope Republicans will finally join us to protect these priorities and help deliver the services families are counting on.”
At the moment, Madigan is down a net three or four, depending on how the race goes in Rep. Andy Skoog’s LaSalle County-area district.
*** UPDATE *** House Republican Leader Jim Durkin…
“By handily breaking the supermajority, Illinois voters sent a strong message that it is time for Democrats to join Governor Rauner and legislative Republicans in enacting reforms to lower property taxes, create more jobs, address the pension crisis and place term limits on the career politicians alongside a balanced budget.”
* This post will be handled a little differently than the legislative race results post. We’ll have Illinois Election Data’s automated results for the statewide contests, followed by congressional results and the statewide constitutional amendment referendum results via ScribbleLive. Again, there is no reason to refresh this page. It should all update on its own.
Live BlueRoomStream video from Leslie Munger’s HQ is here. Live BlueRoomStream video from Susana Mendoza’s HQ is here.
Tonight’s results are brought to you by the BEST Coalition…
* If all goes as planned, Illinois Election Data’s info will update automatically below, so there should be no reason to refresh this page - or any of tonight’s posts, for that matter. On this page, you’ll see results for House seats held by Democrats, followed by results for House seats held by Republicans, then Senate seats by party.
One quick programming note, LaSalle County is reporting some website issues, so results for the very important 76th House District race (Skoog vs. Long) may be delayed. Stay tuned and check tonight’s live blog for more info.
Tonight’s results are brought to you by the BEST Coalition…
* I’ll post the live results pages in a bit, but this page will give me an opportunity for running commentary on the results as they come in, plus provide newsie tweets from others. Tonight’s programming is sponsored by the BEST Coalition…
* I’m partnering with Scott Kennedy at Illinois Election Data to give you live vote total updates right here on the blog. There will likely be three separate posts, one for state legislative races, one for statewides and congressionals and the other for a list of declared winners and any commentary I may throw in.
We’ll crank things up around 7:30, so I’ll see you later tonight!
* He could still appeal this ruling to the Illinois Supreme Court, but that’s to be determined…
An appeals court last week rejected former state Rep. Frank Mautino’s request to delay the state elections board’s case against him until a federal investigation is completed.
Without comment, the First District Appellate Court in Chicago ruled on the matter Friday, meaning the Board of Elections can resume its inquiry into Mautino’s spending of campaign money.
A board spokesman said Monday his agency would first conduct a status hearing to determine which documents were needed to proceed. Then the board would schedule a hearing for Mautino in which both sides could present testimony and evidence. […]
Last month, Attorney General Lisa Madigan filed a brief with the appeals court, saying she opposed Mautino’s request. She argued the administrative proceedings would put Mautino in a less than ideal situation, but he would not suffer irreparable harm.
“(W)hile a negative inference may be drawn in the proceedings from Mautino’s invocation of his right to remain silent, the state board must prove its case against (him),” Madigan wrote.
* What are you seeing, hearing and feeling out there at the precinct level? What can you tell us that we don’t already know? Make sure to tell us where you are. Thanks!
* I have to vote and then run some errands to get ready for tonight, maybe have some lunch and I might even try to get a haircut (because, man, it’s outta control). I’ll take my laptop with me in case something huge happens, but in the meantime here are some handy dandy linkies just for you…
* A new Morning Consult & POLITICO Exit Poll of early and Election Day shows that voters going to the polls are anxious, angry, and just want the 2016 election to be over. The Morning Consult/POLITICO Exit Poll was conducted October 18 - November 8, 2016 among 6,782 early/Election Day Voters. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. The results have a margin of error of +/- 1 percent.
* Decision day for Illinois voters on president, Senate and beyond: The Center for Responsive Politics calculated Illinois donations to federal candidates and national political parties at more than $125 million during the two-year 2016 election cycle. The group ranked Illinois fourth nationally in contributions to Democrats at more than $66.8 million and seventh to Republicans, with more than $58.4 million — not including money given to super political action committees.
* After all the early voting, some actually waited for Election Day: Dowling, 43, lives in the Irving Park neighborhood and tried to vote early on Monday at the McFetridge sports complex, but the “line was insane.” Instead, he was in and out in under 10 minutes Tuesday morning at DePaul College Prep.
* McAuliffe, Marwig Face Off Over Chicago’s Only GOP-Held State House Seat: “My opponent … has spent millions of dollars of [Gov.] Bruce Rauner’s money to put out false ads against me,” Marwig said Monday night as she greeted voters outside Roden Library, 6083 N. Northwest Highway, on the last night of early voting. McAuliffe, shaking hands fewer than 10 steps away, has called Marwig’s accusations a “distraction from her ties to [Illinois Speaker of the House] Mike Madigan.”
* Analysis: Plenty at stake for Gov. Rauner on Election Night: “If they take down a number of Democratic seats and [Illinois Comptroller] Leslie Munger wins, I suppose the governor will feel emboldened,” Lang, D-Skokie, said. “But I don’t expect that’s going to happen, and therefore he’s going to be forced to deal with a very strong Democratic majority in both chambers and he’s going to have to determine whether he’s ready to govern or whether he wants to continue to play politics.”
* How about we kill a little time by sharing predictions? Make sure to explain your votes in comments. First up, who do you think will win the US Senate race?…
* On these next two, we’re looking for final net changes, not simply pickups.
Keeping in mind that most figure Rep. Jack Franks’ Democratic seat was a goner from the get-go (but hey, maybe they were wrong), let’s start with the Illinois House…
* And now let’s move to the Senate, where the Democrats didn’t even bother to find a candidate to run in retiring Democratic incumbent John Sullivan’s district…
Can Illinois voters heading to the polls take photos of their ballots? Here’s what the state Board of Elections says:
“Allowing someone to see a voter’s voted ballot is, in general, technically a felony in Illinois,” Heather Kimmons, legal counsel at the Illinois State Board of Elections, said in an email to Crain’s.
She noted there are exceptions for handicapped or illiterate voters receiving assistance in voting.
Section 29-9 of state law says that “any person who knowingly marks his ballot or casts his vote on a voting machine or voting device so that it can be observed by another person, and any person who knowingly observes another person lawfully marking a ballot or lawfully casting his vote on a voting machine or voting device, shall be guilty of a Class 4 felony.”
However, Kimmons said, “we have not heard of any state’s attorney prosecuting anyone who simply posts a picture to Facebook (or a similar social media site) under this statute.”
* The Question: Should Illinois law be changed to allow voters to share photos of their completed ballots? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
The state’s large industrial and manufacturing companies would see significant increases in their electric bills to help bankroll a dramatic expansion of energy-efficiency programs run by Commonwealth Edison and downstate utility Ameren Illinois as part of a wide-ranging draft energy bill circulating in Springfield.
Over the next 13 years, the efficiency charges alone would cause electricity costs for the average Illinois industrial user (as defined by the U.S. Energy Information Administration) to rise $8,271 in 2020, scaling up dramatically to an increase of $43,871 by 2030, according to an analysis by Argonne National Laboratory.
For large manufacturers like steelmakers, the efficiency charge, which would gradually increase by more than five times in that period, would add hundreds of thousands in costs in the short term and potentially well over $1 million by 2030.
The average monthly electricity charge paid by Illinois manufacturers last year was 6.67 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to the EIA (see the PDF). The efficiency charge alone for larger industrial customers would boost that by 1.7 percent in 2020 and 9 percent in 2030.
For a state whose business climate is a persistent source of concern and debate as some manufacturers consider relocating to cheaper locales, the approach raises questions.
“This could be a tipping point for some companies,” says Mark Denzler, vice president and chief operating officer of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association. “Energy (costs) have been one of the few advantages in Illinois for the last 20 years.”
Discuss.
* Related…
* Editorial: For consumers, energy bailout doesn’t compute
But he said picking up four to six seats in the House would be an “OK night” for Rauner and it would move the needle slightly. But more importantly, it would give him leverage and prove that he’s the change agent he said he’d be.
Just an “OK night”?
C’mon, man.
Madigan has a strong Democratic map with incumbents he mostly chose. That map is so well-drawn that Madigan did not lose a single single House seat during the huge 2014 Republican wave which gave us Gov. Rauner.
And, no matter what happens nationally, this is a Democratic year in Illinois, unlike two years ago.
Madigan has spent about as much as Rauner on his candidates and has benefited from a multi-million-dollar statewide advertising blitz trashing the governor. Money is not the issue most people think it is.
Not to mention that Madigan has a far superior organization and ground game - two of the most important aspects of any campaign at this level.
* If Madigan loses six net seats, then that means Rauner’s “Because… Madigan!” campaign worked as planned. And that means the Democrats are gonna have to totally rethink everything, including Madigan’s party leadership, ahead of 2018, which (barring a Donald Trump victory today) will not be a favorable year like this year. Because if the message works this year, it will sure as heck work again in two years.
6 seats is halfway to majority - they have 47, the want to get to 60, so if they got halfway there in a Presidential year, I don’t see how they don’t finish the deal in 2018, unless Madigan retires, because he will have been proven toxic.
It’ll be tougher to get those other seats because they’re stronger districts. But the commenter isn’t wrong. Six net losses would be very bad news for Madigan.
* Let us know what you’re seeing and experiencing. Turnout so far, line length, weather, problems and glitches (if any), visibility of precinct workers, etc. And as always, don’t forget to tell us where you voted or observed. Thanks!
* How’s it looking out there? Describe what you’re seeing: Number of people who’ve already voted, lines (if any), precinct workers (if any), glitches (if any) weather and anything else of note.
For example, the race for 20th District Illinois House, which includes portions of Rosemont, Des Plaines and Park Ridge, between 20-year incumbent Michael McAuliffe, a Chicago Republican, and Chicago Democrat Merry Marwig is now considered to be the most expensive state legislative race in the nation, according to the Center for Public Integrity, with more than $4.1 million spent so far.
Ultimately, [former GOP state Sen. Kirk Dillard] said, that money will work to thwart the independence of the eventual victor — and the ability to get along with the other side.
“The amount of money on both sides in that race, no matter who wins that race, will make it very difficult for the winner of that race not to toe the line of their political party or whoever was paying for those ads. When you need that kind of money to win it’s very difficult to break from the folks who paid for your campaign. And that’s not the way you should legislate.”
* Meanwhile, GWB’s former voicebox is doing comms work for Rauner’s campaign these days…
The Illinois Republican Party gave a $24K in-kind to Gov Rauner for consulting expenses paid to Ari Fleischer Comm. https://t.co/fNF9UAR9TN
The big opportunity in digital media is not the next new technology. It is adding EMOTION to existing websites and social media.
The promise of digital and social media is promoting consumer engagement, creating brand community, and developing customer loyalty. Technology alone is not enough to make this happen.
He’s really big on using emotion. That may explain all the pictures of fall foilage, the Cubs, etc. on the governor’s Facebook and Twitter feeds.
* From a reader…
Hey Rich - just thought I’d kick this over to you. This was in a plastic bag on my door this morning and looked like everyone else on my block had one also, I am also a solid D and early voted so its obvious there was no targeting done. I’ve also NO mail from Kifowit or Strick. I’ve gotten 2 door knocks from the Kifowit campaign.
Point being, we need to do better. A lot better. People shouldn’t be forced to wait in such long lines to exercise their right to vote, whether by nefarious design (as in North Carolina) or by poor planning.
* The pessimist in me worries that maybe they’re over-building, but you gotta love the jobs…
Mayor Rahm Emanuel today visited the installation of the 33rd tower crane to go up in 2016 in Chicago. Located at 451 E. Grand Ave. in the Streeterville neighborhood, the new crane sets a post-recession record and marks eight more than went up last year. The new crane is the 48th tower crane to operate in Chicago during 2016 – 31 more than we saw in 2011.
“The tower cranes seen across Chicago’s skyline mean one thing – economic opportunities that reach neighborhoods across the city,” Mayor Emanuel said. “As Chicago’s economy continues to gain strength, City Hall will continue to partner with all businesses, big and small, to keep the progress going.”
With this new tower there are 29 tower cranes currently operating on construction sites in the city with seven more approved and pending installation.
The new building, called One Bennett Park, is being developed by Related Midwest and was designed by Robert A.M. Stern Architects. It will be the tallest all-residential tower in Chicago at 836 feet tall. The building will feature a unique 1.7-acre public park designed by architect Michael Van Valkenburgh, the creator of Maggie Daley Park and The 606. Residential deliveries are expected to begin in late 2018 and will continue into 2019.
“We are excited to join Mayor Emanuel, Alderman Reilly and Commissioner Frydland in commemorating this important milestone not just for One Bennett Park, but also for the city of Chicago,” Curt Bailey, president of Related Midwest said. “One Bennett Park represents the continued investment in our beautiful city through private developments like this one, which includes a 1.7-acre park that will serve the greater Streeterville community, as well as through public infrastructure projects like the Chicago Riverwalk and ongoing revitalization of the lakefront. Over the next three years, One Bennett Park will create 1,100 new jobs, serving as a catalyst for additional investment and symbolizing the growing appeal of downtown as a home for future generations of Chicagoans.”
In addition to tower crane records, Chicago is also seeing a five-year record high for building permits. As of October 31, 2016, the Department of Buildings issued a total of 39,815 building permits, an increase of nearly 2,000 permits as compared to the same time in 2015, or 5.2 percent.
To keep up with the increase in permits, the City has hired eight new inspectors and two structural engineers, and expects to hire 11 additional inspectors by year-end 2016.
Under Mayor Emanuel and Department of Buildings Commissioner Judith Frydland, the city has made a number of reforms to speed up the issuance of building permits. The reforms include the expansion of certified corrections and self-certification, the issuance of Code Memorandums to address new technologies and modernizations not yet covered in the code, the review of all foundation permits in-house and assisting through the Office of the Underground, reducing the time for permit issuance by as much as eight weeks.
* If you read this morning’s roundup, you already know that a Democratic group called Alliance of Illinois Taxpayers NFP has sent out a mailer tying Rep. Michael McAuliffe to Donald Trump.
Here’s another mail piece from the same group which was apparently mailed to Republicans…
Weak.
* The Democrats are shifting financial and human resources into this race, so keep an eye on it…
The 45th House District race between Wood Dale Republican Christine Winger and Democratic challenger Cynthia Borbas of Carol Stream has brought in $2.2 million. The district in northern DuPage County roughly runs from Route 59 in Bartlett east to Route 83 in Wood Dale.
“Put it this way,” a buddy told me today, “If there is a Hillary wave, this is where we’ll know it.”
* And speaking of hot races, Personal PAC is mailing this into Rep. Dwight Kay’s district…
* No mobile phones at some polling places? Yep, it’s a thing…
While there is no state law against bringing your cellphone in the booth, local authorities can establish rules to preserve decorum, according to Ken Menzel, general counsel for the Illinois State Board of Elections.
In Kane County, that means no cellphones in the polling place, a voter was told Sunday in Carpentersville. Even election judges are not to have phones, Kindles, tablets or other electronic devices, according to the judges’ manual. […]
They’re trying to keep the noise level down. “It’s just disruptive,” Lake County Clerk Carla Wyckoff said. […]
Wealthy former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg again is investing a chunk of his fortune in a hot Chicago-area issue—this time, a proposed tax on soda pop and other sugary drinks in Cook County.
Bloomberg today is launching a $1 million TV ad blitz in the Chicago media market on behalf of the tax, which Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle says is needed to avoid layoffs of law enforcement personnel and others in county government.
Political insiders believe Preckwinkle has the board votes to pass the measure as part of her proposed 2017 budget, but Bloomberg, who’s paying for the spots personally, is taking no chances.
“Big soda is spending money, too,” with ads opposing the tax, Bloomberg senior adviser Howard Wolfson told me in a phone call. “We tend to follow closely what they do.”
Ed Glazar, Republican Candidate for Kankakee County State’s Attorney, has uncovered a disturbing fact involving Bradley village attorney and Kankakee County State’s Attorney opponent Jim Rowe.
According to Bradley village records, a Bradley man was arrested for possession of child pornography. Rowe, as village attorney, refused to refer the case to the State’s Attorney, and instead prosecuted it as a violation of Bradley village ordinances, with a fine of just $100.
The judge in the case was noted to have said that the outcome “could have been much, much worse” for the man, had it not been classified as a village ordinance violation.
The defendant not only escaped the serious charges of possession of child pornography, but Jim Rowe allowed the defendant to keep the illegal materials on his phone, potentially allowing him to send them to others.
I appreciate Mr. Glazar pulling his radio ads regarding his press release of yesterday; he realized his allegations against me were NOT TRUE and has voluntarily pulled the ads. This is the third time his radio ads have been pulled during the campaign for being untrue - but I am happy that in the end, he had the integrity to pull the false ads. He should now retract his press release.
I appreciate Ed recognizing his mistake and doing the right thing by pulling the ads and untrue statements. Now, let’s vote!
* Hmm…
11/7: VBM apps: 490,732 Return rate: 63% Voted already: 1,611,773 (includes VMB returned + early + grace)https://t.co/zWP8rbE9N5
The largest bloc is whites who have no college degree, and the voting-age population of this group is as large as that of voting-age blacks, Hispanics and Asian-Americans combined. Mitt Romney won this group over Barack Obama by 26 percentage points, and Ronald Reagan by 31 points in 1984. But Bill Clinton won this bloc of voters both times he ran. In this year’s political polls, this group favors Mr. Trump by large margins over Hillary Clinton. […]
However, the voting electorate — the people who actually go to the polls — could look substantially different from the voting-age population. […]
This population is the heart of red-state America. It dominates the rural landscape of swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Wisconsin. But it is outnumbered in urban centers and in most suburban areas. A big unknown in this election is how many additional voters will turn out in these counties. On election night, watch for the votes from these areas
In tomorrow’s election, a convicted felon is running for state representative in the metro east. Republican Bob Romanik, a former Washington Park police chief, was convicted in 1997 for lying to a grand jury 150 times and in 1999 for bank fraud.
Illinois State Election Board General Counsel Ken Menzel says Illinois is the one state that allows felons to run for office, with just a few exceptions, “Probably the most notable example of that,” he says, “is the Illinois municipal code prohibition on felons holding city or village office in Illinois.”
So, you can run for Governor but not dog catcher. […]
In Missouri, felons are banned from holding statewide office. Federal laws allow felons to run for congress and President.
* The Question: Should Illinois ban convicted felons from running for and holding state elected office? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
Republicans will probably pick up seats in both chambers of the General Assembly — Rauner won the 2014 popular vote in 33 of the contested districts now held by Democrats.
I’m not saying his prediction is wrong (I don’t do predictions and he could very well turn out to be right), but what is wrong is to not even mention the fact that President Obama won a lot of those same Democratic districts four years ago that Gov. Rauner won two years ago.
* There simply is no doubt that this is a Democratic year in Illinois. So, if the Republicans net significant gains outside the one in the Senate where the Democrats didn’t even put up a candidate to replace retiring Sen. John Sullivan, and retiring Rep. Jack Franks’ district, where the Dems have only recently started spending money, and manage to hold onto their own existing seats, then this is a real win for Republicans. Make no mistake about it.
Yes, Team Rauner is spending a whole lot more on Republican legislative campaigns this year than ever before, but if you check the Tribune’s website you’ll see that Team Madigan is clearly holding its own.
* The Democrats drew the map, they have entrenched incumbents, lots and lots of capable foot soldiers and more than enough money in a year that’s trending strongly their way at the top of the ticket. Yes, Donald Trump will do well in some Downstate Democratic districts, but Republican presidential candidates always do well in those same districts.
* So, you wanna be a poll watcher? Well, don’t just show up on election day…
[Jim Tenuto with the State Board of Elections] adds that state poll watchers have to be affiliated with a political party, candidate or civic organization. The State Board of Elections or a local election authority also must sign off on them.
“Somebody just can’t show up at the polling place (and say) ‘I want to be a poll watcher, I want to watch,’” Tenuto explained. “You can’t do that; you have to have credentials.”
Even so, he says it may not be too late for those who want to serve as poll watchers on election day.
Pat Brady, a former state Republican chairman who supports Rauner, acknowledged the Democrats “have always killed us on ground game, but not this year.”
“We have some legislative districts where we have 30 paid staffers actually working the ground game. We’ve never had that before,” he said. “We are now doing door knocks, going door-to-door. In a state representative race, you can win that race just on door knocks.”
The “Safe Roads” amendment was the brainchild, sources told the Sun-Times, of the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and the Illinois Road and Transportation Builders Association, who then brought in the trade unions to create a powerful alliance.
This alliance needed to win the approval of the General Assembly in order to get their amendment on the November ballot.
State Sen. William Haine, D-Alton, the chief Senate sponsor of the amendment legislation, told the Sun-Times it came to him on behalf of that alliance through Illinois Chamber President Todd Maisch.
The “Citizens to Protect Transportation Funding” political committee was created with money from that construction industry and trade union alliance to drum up votes to pass the amendment.
However, the “citizens” committee name is misleading – every contribution is from a union or a business-related group.
Invoking Donald Trump has become a go-to tactic for down-ballot Democrats all over the country, as candidates of all stripes have tried to tie their opponents to the controversial top of their ticket.
A political action committee aligned with local Democrats is putting an underhanded twist on that tactic, with an ad campaign posing as a tacit Trump endorsement from Chicago’s only Republican state representative.
A mailer has circulated with the Republican presidential nominee’s face alongside Rep. Michael McAuliffe, who represents Edison Park and parts of Norwood Park along with several suburbs.
One page has “The Trump-McAuliffe team working for us!” printed in Trump’s iconic hotel-sign font, below unsubtle declarations like “Donald Trump knows what’s best for our families.” […]
The Trump-focused ad campaign was paid for by a PAC called Alliance of Illinois Taxpayers NFP, which lists City Council finance committee chair Ald. Ed Burke (14th) and the Service Employees International Union as top donors, according to the transparency site Illinois Sunshine. The PAC has spent money to aid to a broad range of Democratic leaders at the state and local level.
If you want to see change…The Mike Madigan Era needs to end. Here are the list of people that you need to vote against to stop Madigan. Each has voted for unbalanced budgets. All are opposed to term limits and redistricting reform.
Comptroller canditate Susan Mendoza
State Rep candidate Mary Marweg
State Rep Michelle Mussman
State Rep Mike Smiddy
Sate Rep Sam Yingling
State Rep Kate Cloonen
State Rep John Bradley
State Rep Carol Sente
Not to pick on Tony because I assume this was a package sticker deal with the SJ-R. But probably not the best expense given none of Logan County is in the 99th District.
Just before Tuesday’s election, it’s impossible to turn on a television or radio without being inundated with ads in which each party assigns blame to the other for the state’s woeful financial condition.
It’s the latest battle in an all-out war between longtime Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan of Chicago and Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner of Winnetka, who have been at odds since shortly after Rauner’s January 2015 inauguration.
“We now have two political bosses in Illinois,” said Mike Lawrence, former director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. “They demand folks do what they want them to do, and they’ve used money as a major incentivizer.”
Redfield, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield, compared the top 10 donors, or donor families, to Illinois state and local campaign committees in three four-year cycles.
He found that the total of those top donors in 2005-08 was $19.2 million, with 2006 Republican primary candidate for governor Ron Gidwitz and his family topping the list at $6.75 million.
From 2009 to 2012, the total of the top 10 donors was about $13.6 million, with the top three people on the list giving less than $2.5 million each.
But in the ongoing period beginning in 2013, the total already tops $127 million — with more than $60 million from Gov. Bruce and Diana Rauner; more than $25 million from Kenneth Griffin and his former wife, Anne Dias; and more than $12 million from Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, leaders of packaging materials company Uline.
The Rauner total also includes about $27 million the governor spent on his own winning 2014 gubernatorial race, which had a price tag of $65 million, including money from other donors.
The innocuous-looking mailer began arriving last Wednesday.
Whoever sent it used plain manila envelopes with first class postage. Usually campaigns use bulk mail, but those have permit numbers, making them traceable. First class mail isn’t so easily tracked.
There was no return address on the envelopes. Whoever sent it used preprinted address labels. The letters were addressed to a generic “Registered Voter” recipient.
Inside was a picture printed on somewhat expensive photo stock paper.
“Got Avery?” was the headline above a poorly Photoshopped picture of state Rep. Avery Bourne’s (R-Raymond) head on someone else’s nude body.
It was probably the vilest thing to happen during a legislative campaign that I’ve seen in all the years I’ve been doing this. And that’s a lot of years writing about a lot of vile muck.
Stamped on the back of the photo was a date of Oct. 7—which likely shows that this mailer had been planned for quite some time, and could provide investigators with a clue about where it was produced and maybe even who did it.
-
As I write this before the election, the mailer hadn’t been widely sent, perhaps because of the cost of both the postage and the paper. But its distribution wasn’t confined to Bourne’s downstate district. The first to report receiving it last Wednesday was an official at the Sangamon County Farm Bureau, which is north of Bourne’s district. The Farm Bureau quickly notified Bourne, and she went over there to pick it up.
But others saw it in their mailboxes that day, too. Bourne’s Democratic opponent, Mike Mathis, was called by a high-level House Democratic staff after somebody forwarded it to them. Mathis called Bourne to express his shock and to deny all involvement.
Bourne told me last week that many of her campaign contributors got the piece, suggesting that the culprit or culprits used publicly available information. The Illinois State Police told her that her endorsement list could have been used as well. But the Sangamon County Farm Bureau and some others who received the mailer aren’t involved in her race.
Bourne’s grandmother and great-grandmother both received the mailer. They were, of course, appalled.
A friend of her opponent also received the mailer, even though the guy, I’m told, isn’t at all involved in politics.
The immediate, private reaction from the top on both sides was to blame the other side. Was it a “false flag” operation or an incredibly dirty Democratic trick?
But that speculation was probably ludicrous, and eventually everybody calmed down enough to admit it. The Republicans wouldn’t ever do something as disgusting as publicly humiliate the youngest woman in the House like that (or any of their female candidates, for that matter). And the Democrats aren’t stupidly insane enough to put their own candidate at risk by doing something that despicable to Bourne.
So, both sides’ initial reactions seemed to be more about self-preservation during the inevitable finger-pointing than sober judgment.
If I had to guess, I’d say the culprit (or culprits) is likely some local weirdo (or weirdos) with an ax to grind who has just enough political knowledge and experience to make him or her dangerous.
Unfortunately, there are more than a few of those types out there in our current age of weaponized misogyny. You don’t have to spend much time on Twitter or Facebook to see this type of behavior. But posting a Photoshopped picture on Twitter takes very little effort. These envelopes were likely stuffed, labeled and stamped by hand. That takes time and, to me, makes this even creepier.
Whether that person simply wanted to hurt Bourne or damage Mathis’ campaign—or possibly do both at once—is something we might never know. But I have got to figure that anyone who is this loathsome to go to all this trouble will want to brag about it and/or was stupid enough to leave a clue here and there. The fact that the letter was apparently sent to one of Mathis’ nonpolitical friends means whoever did this has some local knowledge.
Mathis, for his part, did all he could to strenuously deny his involvement and denounce the mailer. He even showed up for Bourne’s press conference last Thursday to show his solidarity. He did the right thing by a woman who was horribly wronged.
But right or wrong, the opponent usually gets the blame for this stuff in voters’ minds.
What a truly awful way to end one of the foulest campaign seasons ever.
Back in August, Gov. Bruce Rauner held a media conference with Democratic lawmakers to sign several criminal justice reform bills into law. The package of legislation did things such as shorten mandatory minimum probation for juveniles, lower the notoriously high-priced per-minute phone costs for prison inmates and allowed people convicted of certain drug offenses to eventually work for local park districts.
“We need to think strategically, thoughtfully, compassionately, about helping people come back, have a second chance and be productive citizens,” Rauner said.
The Republican governor has signed a host of criminal justice reform bills since he was inaugurated in 2015. He’s also pushing hard for an even more comprehensive list of reforms, which he hopes will allow the state to reduce its prison population by 25 percent over 10 years.
Rep. Kelly Cassidy, a North Side Democrat, unexpectedly used the conference with Rauner to complain about a campaign mailer sent by a member of her own party. She criticized Rep. John Bradley, D-Marion, for using the governor’s reforms as a “political weapon” against his Republican opponent, Dave Severin, in the Nov. 8 election.
Bradley claimed in the mailer that his opponent’s “biggest supporter wants to let 25 percent of the state’s prisoners loose into our communities.” Rauner is the Illinois Republican Party’s biggest contributor by far and the state party is, in turn, Severin’s largest backer.
Just a few days after that media conference, Rauner signed Senate Bill 42 into law. The measure allows licensed health care workers who’ve been convicted of most felonies to petition the state to reinstate their licenses after their release from prison.
That was a gutsy move, and it wasn’t an easy bill to pass. But a Republican governor on a mission to reform the criminal justice system made it possible.
So imagine my surprise when a mailer from Rauner’s Illinois Republican Party landed in Sen. Tom Cullerton’s DuPage County district recently accusing the Villa Park Democrat of letting
* Along the same vein, here’s a Tribune snippet about something we hashed over several days ago…
Then there’s the deep southern Illinois contest in which Democratic state Sen. Gary Forby faces Republican challenger Dale Fowler in a district that’s culturally and geographically much closer to Kentucky than Chicago. Fowler’s GOP campaign put out an anti-Forby mailer that says “organized labor can’t trust” the Democrat and accuses him of siding with the Republican governor on state labor board appointees.
That wouldn’t be all that remarkable, except that 95 percent of the more than $1.5 million Fowler has raised through October came from the various campaign financial arms of the Illinois Republican Party, which has received nearly $21 million from Rauner’s campaign fund this year. Rauner, in effect, paid for ads that are critical of himself, all the in the name of picking up a state Senate seat.
That misses the point, however. If a Democrat is gonna get whacked by the Republicans for supporting a Republican governor’s nominee, what’s the point of any Democrat supporting any even slightly questionable Rauner nominees in the future?
