* Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball today…

— Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.

— We’re making 17 House ratings changes this week, all in favor of the Democrats.

US Rep. Peter Roskam’s district was moved from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.”

* From the Chicago Republican Party…

Counter-protest for Peter Roskam, this Thursday

Peter Roskam is in the fight of his life and he needs our help this Thursday. His race was just changed from “Likely Republican” to “Toss-up”. If we hope to keep this district from turning Blue in November, we need to match the other side’s intensity right now.

We just got wind that the Democrats are planning to protest at the sold-out debate between Peter and his opponent this Thursday evening in Chicago. They’re planning on having over 100 people there. This is a perfect opportunity for us to show we are ready to fight. Can you come show your support for Peter outside the event this Thursday?

We are gathering with our signs at the north east corner of Jackson and Clark (courtyard of the Federal Building) across from the Union League Club (65 Jackson Blvd, Chicago) where the debate is taking place starting at 4:30 PM and going until the debate starts at 6 PM.

We’re also having a bus take supporters from the suburbs to downtown and back! We’re meeting in Wheaton at 3:15 PM and plan on having everyone back by 7:15. If you’d like to take the bus, let us know and we’ll send you more details!

We can’t let the Democrats’ protest go unanswered, especially on such an important debate night!

* Speaking of the debate, here’s Shia Kapos…

Thursday’s Lincoln Forum debate between Republican Rep. Peter Roskam and Democratic challenger Sean Casten is sold out. The event was only supposed to have 100 audience guests, ideally supporters evenly split between the two candidates. But when tickets went on sale, Casten’s supporters gobbled them up. Lincoln Forum co-founders Pat Brady, the former state GOP chairman, and Eric Adelstein, a Dem strategist, decided out of fairness to sell an additional 70 tickets to Roskam supporters. “The Lincoln Forum is nonpartisan and we have a duty to have a balanced room,” Brady said.

I’m told that Casten’s campaign manager bought a big block of tickets, so this reaction seems reasonable to me.

* But check out Casten’s response via press release…

Organizers of Thursday’s debate originally proposed 100 tickets sales, the parties agreed, and both candidates were informed simultaneously of the procedures for online sale. Those 100 seats sold quickly. Thereafter, Peter Roskam expressed concern that more tickets had been purchased by Casten supporters, and insisted upon an additional ticket allotment exclusively for his campaign as a condition to participate. The debate organizers complied, providing Roskam’s campaign with access to a secret stash of 70 additional tickets to the sold-out debate.

“Sixth District residents are clamoring to hear Peter Roskam defend his actions in Washington D.C. When given an opportunity — at $33 per ticket versus free of charge — they jumped. Our campaigns agreed to rules for this debate, but now Peter Roskam wants to change them after the fact in his favor.”

“We still eagerly look forward to the debate on Thursday, but Peter Roskam should agree right now to more debates at home in larger, free venues so all Sixth District residents have a fair and open opportunity to hear about our campaigns. If Peter Roskam is afraid of his own constituents, how can we expect him to stand up to Donald Trump?”

Sigh.

* On to another topic…

Anyone watching their TV recently may have been startled to see—months earlier than most political spots usually arrive—a TV ad promoting the accomplishments of U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Wheaton.

The ad now has disappeared from the airwaves. But consider it an omen of what’s to come. […]

The [$209K American Chemistry Council] ad hails Roskam’s work on behalf of the tax bill that Congress approved under strong pleadings by President Donald Trump. The congressman “fought to reform our nation’s tax code to lower taxes for middle class families so they can keep more of their hard earned money,” said ACC President and CEO Cal Dooley in a statement. “His leadership on tax reform has also benefited businesses by allowing them to reinvest in their employees in Illinois and across America.”

Casten’s campaign sees it a lot differently.

It emphasizes that the chemistry council’s members include units of major petroleum companies including BP, Chevron, Occidental and Total, all of which received big benefits from the tax bill. Roskam further voted to open oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and restrict federal limits on methane emissions in oil drilling on federal land, it says. More generally, says Casten, “As a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee, Peter Roskam has done a lot of favors for big corporations—not the least of which was giving them billions of dollars in tax cuts in the tax bill he authored. Now these corporate PACs are repaying him for those favors—and hoping for more.”

* Related…

* Casten, Roskam debate spending bill to strengthen election security

* Rep. Roskam, challenger Casten to face off in heated debate