Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Monday, Sep 13, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Analyst predicts two GOP congressional pickups here, and maybe one Dem win
Sunday, Sep 12, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller [Bumped up from Friday evening for visibility.] * Hotshot prognosticator and polling analyst Nate Silver over at the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight site has completed his Congressional district analyses and concluded that two Democratic-held districts in Illinois may very well flip to the Republicans. The 11th CD, currently held by Democrat Debbie Halvorson, has an 88 percent chance of flipping to the GOP via challenger Adam Kinzinger, according to Silver, who has placed the race on his “Likely Takeover” list. There’s a 63 percent chance that the 14th District will be captured by the Republicans, Silver writes. Democrat Bill Foster is the incumbent. State Sen. Randy Hultgren is the GOP challenger. The race is on FiveThirtyEight’s “Lean Takeover” list. * Third-time Democratic candidate Dan Seals has just a 53 percent chance of winning the 10th District open seat contest against Republican Bob Dold, Silver says. The seat is currently held by Republican Mark Kirk. The race is on FiveThirtyEight’s “Even Chance of Takeover” list. Silver gives Democratic incumbent Phil Hare a 74 percent chance of victory. That belies unreleased polling which definitely puts the race in play, but FiveThirtyEight still has this one on a “Takeover Possible” list. Democrat Melissa Bean is given a 96 percent chance of keeping her seat against Republican Joe Walsh. All other incumbents of both parties here are given 100 percent chances of winning. * Silver is predicting the Republicans have a 2 in 3 chance of taking control of the US House. His predictive model is based on numerous factors, including the generic ballot, the president’s overall and issue-specific approval ratings and lots of other factors to the point where Silver calls it the “kitchen sink” approach…
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Silver gives Brady 86.7 percent chance of winning
Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Nate Silver of the legendary 538 polling/projection blog has moved over to the New York Times. Silver’s prediction for the Illinois governor’s race is gonna give lots of Democrats a bad case of heartburn… ![]() ![]() I think the final margin may be pretty close to Silver’s projection. And the 86.7 percent chance Brady wins makes sense at the moment. We’ll see. ![]() ![]() Unless Quinn can get his act together soon, he will definitely hamper Giannoulias, no matter what Alexi is telling the media. I find myself agreeing with Silver here. * Nate apparently hasn’t gotten around to handicapping our congressional races yet, but here’s a link for future reference. * Campaign 2010 roundup…
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