There is no doubt whatsoever that Republicans in this state have every reason to cheer and Democrats have all the reasons in the world to grumble.
Republicans have a fired up, angry base that can’t wait to vote. The Democratic base is morose, embarrassed at its party’s failures and is in no mood to even think about voting.
Numerous pollsters and prognosticators have pointed to the eery similarities between the public’s mood now and at the same point in the huge Republican year of 1994 - the last time we had a Democratic president facing his first midterm election.
The latest national CNN/Opinion Research poll found that the “generic” congressional ballot was pretty much the same as it was in August 1994. Voters favor unnamed Republican candidates over Democrats 48 percent to 45 percent, compared with 46-44 in 1994. Public Policy Polling’s latest survey had the national generic ballot favoring Republicans at 45-42.
Half of all voters told CNN’s pollster that they likely are to vote for a candidate who would opposes President Barack Obama. Back in ‘94, 51 percent said they wanted candidates who opposed President Bill Clinton. Obama’s approval rating is also just three points higher than Bill Clinton’s was back then.
In 1994, the Illinois House Republicans rode their party’s national tidal wave to a 13-seat pickup and a long-sought majority. The House Republicans need 12 seats to take the majority away from the Democrats this time. So, there’s a lot of hope out there that they can pull it off.
Some real differences exist between now and 1994, particularly here in Illinois. For instance, back then Illinois had straight-party voting. It was pretty easy to just walk into the ballot booth, punch the Republican number and walk out. The Republicans got rid of that just after the Democrats took back the House two years later.
Also, the state legislative district map 16 years ago was drawn by the Republicans. The current map was drawn by the Democrats and is way more sophisticated because computer technology advanced so far in the intervening decade.
The national Republican landslide of 1994 took the Democrats completely by surprise. They simply had never seen anything like it. Even during the Ronald Reagan sweep of 1984, the Illinois Democrats beat a Republican U.S. Senator. Now that they’ve seen what can happen, the Democrats claim they’ve made far more preparations than they did in ‘94.
Then there’s Barack Obama. The president is from Illinois, so the state gives him a higher approval rating than just about anywhere else, and tends to support his policies in larger numbers.
Back in early August 1994, a Chicago Tribune poll had Republican Jim Edgar beating Dawn Clark Netsch by a mind-blowing 35 points. Netsch ended up losing by almost 30 points, taking the House Democratic majority down with her.
The latest statewide poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports has Republican state Sen. Bill Brady leading Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by 13 points - 48-35. I’ve seen another internal candidate poll taken very recently that had Brady’s lead slightly higher. A Democratic poll reportedly has Quinn trailing by seven points. Let’s say it’s somewhere in the middle, but that means there’s no good news here for the governor.
So, could Quinn take everybody else down with him?
If you figure that Netsch’s 30-point loss helped intensify the 1994 GOP landslide, then maybe Quinn’s bad numbers aren’t enough. But I’ve seen some recent private polling on voter intensity that ought to frighten the Democrats right down to their bones. Their party’s biggest lead is among people who say they aren’t interested in voting.
Plus, downstate and collar county voters appear the angriest these days, and that could really hurt a lot of the state’s freshman Democratic congressmen and several legislators in tough fights. Any Democrat involved in a race that looks even a little close should be worried sick right now.
Quinn isn’t helping matters much with the campaign that he and his allies have been running. The Democratic Governors Association has spent almost $2 million on TV ads whacking Bill Brady as an extremist, but Rasmussen’s poll of 750 likely voters taken August 9th showed that more voters thought Quinn was an extremist than Brady.
According to the poll, 32 percent thought Brady’s views were “extreme,” while 38 percent thought Quinn’s views were extreme.
He’d better do something quick before he pulls a Netsch and tanks his entire party.
In a recent Tribune/WGN poll, 46 percent of suburban residents said they oppose legalizing same-sex marriage, while 40 percent approve and 14 percent have no opinion.
When asked their opinions on civil unions — which would provide same-sex couples with many of the same legal rights as marriage — the results switch: 54 percent of suburban residents favor legalizing same-sex civil unions, compared with 33 percent who would oppose such a law. When city residents are included, the results remain nearly the same.
The poll shows the Chicago area falls largely in line with national opinions on gay marriage, an issue that has received considerable attention lately after a federal judge in California declared that state’s ban on gay marriage unconstitutional. Same-sex marriages could resume as soon as Wednesday in California, and the judge’s decision is expected to make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court. […]
The overall opinion on legalizing same-sex marriage, when city respondents are factored in, is split: 42 percent oppose it, 42 percent support it and 15 percent have no opinion. The Market Shares Corp. telephone poll of 800 male and female heads of household from the six-county Chicago area has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
