* Louis Jacobson at Sabato’s Crystal Ball…

In contemporary politics, demography is destiny. Just how true this has become can be demonstrated by a simple calculation using 3 basic demographic variables.

For all 50 states, we looked at 3 variables that are increasingly linked with partisan voting:

— What percentage of the state’s residents 25 or older have at least a bachelor’s degree?

— What percentage of the state’s residents are white?

— How urban or rural is the state?

Put simply, Republican candidates now perform strongest among white voters without a college degree, especially if they live in rural areas. And Democrats, conversely, are performing best among minority voters, those with at least an undergraduate degree, and those who live in or near urban areas.

To make our calculations, we drew on the most recent education data from the National Center for Education Statistics’ Digest of Education Statistics, the most recent racial data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index.

For each of these 3 metrics, we ranked the states on a 1-to-50 scale.

Specifically, the state with the lowest percentage of residents 25 or over holding a bachelor’s degree was ranked 1, while the state with the highest percentage holding a bachelor’s degree was ranked 50. For the racial measurement, the whitest state was ranked 1, while the least-white state was ranked 50. For the urban-rural measurement, the least urban state was ranked 1, while the most urban state was ranked 50.

Once we had all 3 rankings in hand, we simply added together the rankings for each state, then rank-ordered that composite score for the states from 1 to 50. The states that ranked closer to 1 offered more friendly demographics for the GOP, while the states closer to 50 offered demographics more friendly to the Democrats.

As noted in the headline, Illinois was ranked the 43rd most Republican-friendly state, tied with Connecticut. We were 39th most friendly when it came to percentages of people with bachelor’s degrees, 34th most friendly on whiteness and 43rd on urbanization.

Keep in mind, this is about presidential races, not off-year contests, which is the cycle we’re in now. Some folks are making the case these days that the Illinois Democrats have taken things for granted for far too long. We’ll see in a matter of months.