A new Illinois survey of likely 2022 GOP Primary election voters was released today. This Illinois GOP Gubernatorial primary survey measures President Trump’s approval and breaks down voters’ preference in the 2022 primary election. Ogden and Fry, a nationally recognized polling firm, conducted the poll from October 3-4, on behalf of the Northwest Side GOP Club — a Chicago based Republican umbrella organization.
President Trump’s approval rating remains strong. The results showed that 86.6% of voters approve of President Trump, 13.4% disapprove.
On the second question, voters were asked their preferred candidate in the Illinois Republican Primary for Governor. The results showed that State Senator Darren Bailey, who sued Governor Pritzker over unilateral lockdowns last year, has a commanding lead with 33.3% followed by Jesse Sulllivan at 6.2%, Gary Rabine at 5.2%, and Paul Schimpf at 3.0%.
Ogden and Fry conducted this survey of 400+ respondents from a random selection of likely 2022 GOP Primary election voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.98%.
With the usual caveats about O&F polls, here are some results…
* Meanwhile, Sullivan has launched an effort to catch up…
Political outsider and Republican candidate for governor of Illinois Jesse Sullivan released his first television campaign ad [Friday] morning. The ad will air statewide and is part of a six-figure buy, the latest piece of a comprehensive television, digital, and radio plan to get Sully’s message out and begin a conversation with Illinois voters about what’s at stake in this race to replace JB Pritzker, who has already spent millions on the air.
The $222,032 cable TV aspect of this buy runs from October 2 through November 5. That’s slightly less than the governor has been spending per week. Sullivan has the money to sustain this rate for quite a while.
Former state Sen. Paul Schimpf of Waterloo, who is also vying to be the Republican nominee for governor, has welcomed Sullivan’s entry into the race, but on Friday, he took issue with his opponent’s ad.
“Jesse Sullivan is not a veteran, and a TV advertisement that implies he is does a disservice to the voters of Illinois, who deserve better,” Schimpf said in a statement.
Schimpf spent 20 years in the U.S. Marines, at one point serving as the nation’s top adviser to prosecutors trying Saddam Hussein.
Sullivan’s campaign said in response to Schimpf’s statement Sullivan is “proud of his service as an Army civilian. That service has only deepened his respect for veterans and first responders who keep us safe at home and abroad.”
* These DGA videos are just laughable. All press release, zero impact…
The DGA is launching a new video today that hits the crowded GOP gubernatorial field for their radical anti-choice records. Watch the video here.
Darren Bailey has said he wants to outlaw abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, and Jesse Sullivan agrees on a near-total ban on abortion. Gary Rabine is a self-described “big pro-lifer,” and Paul Schimpf voted against the IL state law protecting abortion access if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
That release was sent out four days ago and it has since garnered precisely 5 views as of this writing. Pathetic. Stop wasting my time with this nonsense.
* Indeed, this particular bit of silliness had far more impact than anything the DGA has done here so far…
Somehow Darren Bailey’s campaign has convinced hundreds of people on Facebook that their lack of a mult box somehow amounts to a larger media audience because of… mic flags? pic.twitter.com/vXm8y80npi
Representative Adam Kinzinger, one of former President Donald Trump’s chief GOP antagonists and the only House Republican to vote last week for a “clean” debt limit increase, isn’t ruling out a bid for a Senate seat from Illinois or a campaign for governor.
Kinzinger, appearing Tuesday on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power with David Westin,” said those potential alternatives are “not something I’m planning for at this moment.”
But he added, “I’m certainly not ruling it out,” noting that Democrats control the process of drawing new congressional lines in Illinois, with more details on that expected in the next week.
He said he’s putting what happens “in God’s hands,” adding, “I will not give up the fight for this country.”
* Greg Hinz has a story about twin developments in the state’s goal of building up the electric vehicle industry here, including the supply chain. Small excerpt…
A major push has begun in Springfield to lure investment from the fast-growing electric vehicle business with significant new financial incentives and other aid.
An initial bill was filed Monday evening by state Rep. Dave Vella, a Democrat from Loves Park whose district is just west of Stellantis’ huge Belvedere plant. Tens of millions of dollars and thousands of jobs potentially are on the table. […]
The administration has talked to Ford about potentially assembling electric Explorers at its South Side plant, as well as Stellantis and other producers. It also has begun coordinating with academic researchers, some of them at Argonne National Lab, which has developed an expertise in work developing better batteries.
Officials say they don’t yet know what will be in the governor’s package. But among items being discussed are lengthening the Edge tax credit period from 10 years to 20 years and building some sort of temporary relief from local property taxes.
Vella’s bill is here. The Pritzker folks told Hinz that it isn’t quite what they’re looking at doing.
Exelon is starting to prepare for its future after Illinois Governor JB Pritzker signed the controversial energy bill into law earlier this month.
The new law will keep both Exelon’s Byron and Dresden nuclear plants open for at least another six years.
Now, Exelon announced they’re looking to fill 650 vacant positions across the state and plan on investing more than $300 million in capital projects over the next five years.
* Yes, it’s a very slow news day today so far. Press release…
Radio talk show host and Turning Point founder Charlie Kirk is endorsing Gary Rabine for Governor and is urging Illinois Republicans to rally around the candidate he says has the best chance of beating JB Pritzker in 2022.
“Gary Rabine has been there from the very beginning in helping me to build Turning Point into what it is today,” Kirk said. “He is a business builder and a true conservative who will stand up for the values we embrace. He is a true outsider who will help Illinois comeback from decades of poor policies that have put a once great state into decline. I care about Illinois, and I want to see my home state thrive. I am tired of seeing people leave Illinois for other states. I am supporting Gary Rabine for Governor because he is the best candidate and the one I know can beat JB Pritzker and as importantly, turn our state around. Gary is a dear friend who has always been there to help me, and I believe firmly in backing my friends. Gary will be a terrific Governor and has my total endorsement.”
Rabine said he was an early supporter of Turning Point – a right-wing political advocacy group geared towards young people – and did fundraising work for the organization in 2013 and 2014. He currently serves as an advisory council member.
Turning Point’s mission is to “identify, educate, train, and organize students to promote freedom,” according to their website, but the organization has been embroiled in various controversies and its leader came under fire last spring for his invention of the term “china virus.”
“What I saw this as was an opportunity to educate on free enterprise and why it’s important to the future of our country,” Rabine said of his decision to support the organization. “I’m not represented by Charlie Kirk or anybody that represents Turning Point USA. The things they say, I’m not in control of and I don’t know how they’re looked upon at all when it comes to left, right, center or whatever.”
The Illinois House and Senate Redistricting Committees have relaunched an online map making portal which will allow residents to draw and submit proposed congressional boundaries for lawmakers to consider as redistricting efforts continue.
The map making portal can be accessed at www.ilsenateredistricting.com and www.ilhousedems.com/redistricting. Returning users that have previously used the portal do not need to create a new account.
The relaunch of the portal comes ahead of a series of public hearings the committees will hold in October to gather input on the makeup of new congressional districts. Additional details about hearings will be announced in the coming days as Democrats remain committed to a redistricting process centered on public participation with more accessibility than ever before. Members of the public may also submit written testimony or draft congressional maps at any time at redistrictingcommittee@senatedem.ilga.gov and redistrictingcommittee@hds.ilga.gov.
“It’s never been more important that every resident of Illinois has a strong voice in Congress, and that starts with ensuring everyone has a voice in the mapmaking process,” said Rep. Elizabeth Hernandez, D-Cicero, Chairperson of the House Redistricting Committee. “This mapmaking tool gives everyone the opportunity to share their thoughts and help us create districts that reflect our state.”
“Now is the time for residents across Illinois to make their voices heard to ensure our state has strong representation in Washington,” said Sen. Omar Aquino, D-Chicago, Chair of the Senate Redistricting Committee. “We encourage residents to take advantage of these opportunities to directly participate in the map making process, as the best map is one that reflects the diverse voices across our state.”
* Lynn Sweet asked Senate President Don Harmon about the congressional remap process last week. Some of Sweet’s questions are paraphrased here…
LS: Will the congressional remap be passed in the veto session?
DH: Yes. We will be returning to Springfield in October, and the first priority is to pass a congressional map.
LS: Do you have a draft already, or drafts?
DH: We do not. We are just beginning the process, we’re beginning to schedule the public hearings. We want to take testimony from Illinoisans from the top to the bottom, from the east to the west, and make sure that all that public input is factored in to any map that we produce.
LS: Have you had meetings with any of the delegation members to get their views, or when does that happen?
DH: I expect that we will be having subsequent conversations going forward. There have been no formal sit-downs with any members to talk about redistricting.
LS: We have to lose a district, where do you think it will come from?
DH: This is a great question and I wanted to remind folks, in reapportionment, we went from 18 districts to 17 districts. That doesn’t mean that the district disappears so much as all the other districts get a little bit larger, and everybody in Illinois, including the entire congressional district, lives in one district or another. We’re going to follow the population shifts, we’re going to try to draw districts that are fair and reflect the diversity of the state of Illinois, we’re going to follow the Federal Voting Rights Act as well as the Illinois Voting Rights Act, and try to build districts that best represent all of Illinois.
LS: Have you looked at the maps drawn by Cook Political Report US House editor Dave Wasserman?
DH: I have not. I don’t know him. I know that the map caused a fair amount of controversy, but I also knew that nobody in charge of passing the maps, participated in drawing it.
Please pardon all transcription errors.
…Adding… React…
State Representative Tim Butler (R-Springfield) issued the following statement today in response to House and Senate Democrats announcing the relaunch of their much-maligned public map-making portal for new congressional boundaries:
“The sad truth is that this is just another attempt by Democrats to act like this is a free and fair process, but the facts have proven otherwise,” said Butler. “The relaunching of a portal that included a multitude of malfunctions that went unaddressed by them before, I don’t expect much to be different this time around.”
*** UPDATE *** Press release…
The Latino Policy Forum is gravely disappointed in the Illinois legislative maps that were signed into law last week, which do not provide equitable opportunities for Latinos to elect the representatives of their choice. These maps do not accurately reflect the state’s Latino population, nor its true diversity within the halls of government, and they do not bode well for a more equitable future of our election systems.
“Despite Illinois adding 309,832 Latinos to its overall population according to 2020 census data, the state did not add any Latino-majority districts. In fact, we lost one Latino-majority House district, from 14 to 13,” says Latino Policy Forum President and CEO Sylvia Puente. “This is not fair, just, or equitable.”
“The map signed into law by the Governor, after having had a second opportunity to get it right and after an increase in the state Latino population that should result in an increase in Latino-majority districts, falls very short,” says former State Senator and former Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle, who testified alongside the Forum in hearings on redistricting this year. “I’m very disappointed that the general assembly and the Latino caucus voted for this inequitable map, which is an injustice to Latinos statewide.”
Overall, the booster discussion seems to have increased rather than decreased the public’s confidence in the COVID-19 vaccines, though the opposite is true for those who remain unvaccinated. More than six in ten adults overall (62%) say the news that some people might need boosters “shows that scientists are continuing to find ways to make vaccines more effective” while one-third say it “shows that the vaccines are not working as well as promised.” Among those who are unvaccinated however, seven in ten (71%) say news about boosters is a sign that the vaccines aren’t working, including 69% of those in the “wait and see” group and 82% of those in the “definitely not” camp. Views on this topic also diverge by partisanship, with eight in ten Democrats (82%) seeing the booster discussion as a sign that scientists are continuing to find ways to make vaccines more effective and Republicans more evenly divided between this view (44%) and believing that boosters show the vaccines aren’t working well (52%).
* I’m pretty sure people would say the polio vaccine worked…
I work at a thrift store and found this vaccine card from 1956. Felt weirdly timely pic.twitter.com/pjo8nhwwUL
When President Joe Biden announced his administration would require vaccines or weekly COVID tests for federal workers and businesses with 100 or more employees, Republicans pounced—as the saying goes—into fundraising mode.
The day after the announcement, the Republican National Committee began blasting out emails and text messages asking supporters to reach into their pockets to help fund a coming legal challenge against the supposedly “authoritarian” mandate. […]
The solicitations went out almost daily for the next two weeks, and grew increasingly Orwellian in tenor. Texts attacked Biden as “UN-AMERICAN” and a “TYRANT,” and emails played up fears of “fascist” overreach.
“You MUST step up RIGHT NOW and fund our efforts against Biden to end this EVIL vaccine mandate or all will be lost!” read an email sent Sunday, Sept. 12. Another sent around the same time reminded recipients that “lawsuits like this are expensive,” and again suggested a $45 contribution would be sufficient to back the effort.
Today, State Representative Margaret Croke (IL-12) introduced HB4156, a bill to protect Illinoisans from gun violence and hold those putting more guns onto our streets accountable. The Protecting Heartbeats Act will allow Illinois residents to take civil action against gun manufacturers, importers, and dealers whose firearms are responsible for injury or death in the state.
“Too many Illinoisans die each year from senseless gun violence and we need to be doing everything in our power to keep people safe and prevent more guns from flooding into our communities,” said State Representative Margaret Croke. “In its ruling in Texas, the Supreme Court allowed citizens to take civil action against anyone in violation of the law. Our state has the opportunity to employ this same logic to hold gun manufacturers, importers, and dealers accountable for their actions and stop preventable tragedies from taking the lives of more Illinoisans.”
Everytown for Gun Violence, a leading gun violence prevention organization, estimates that 1,363 Illinoisans die of gun violence every year. From 2009 to 2018, the rate of gun deaths in Illinois increased by 32%, compared to 18% in the same time period nationwide. Illinois has the 9th highest rate of gun homicides in the country, and Black people are 34 times as likely to die by gun homicide as white people, compared to just 10 times nationwide. Everytown also says that firearms are the number one leading cause of death among children and teens in Illinois.
A recent report from the Chicago Tribune, which found that one single gun was responsible for 27 shootings and an untold amount of damage to Chicagoans and their loved ones in just a 20 month period, includes research that estimates the cost of just one gunshot injury is over $1 million. These costs include medical expenses, the earning power of a victim, the loss of business to the affected community, and more.
Under the Protecting Heartbeats Act, any Illinois resident other than a state or local government officer or employee may bring a civil action against a gun manufacturer, importer or dealer whose gun is responsible for bodily injury or death. If the claimant wins the suit, the court will award injunctive relief and damages of no less than $10,000 for each person injured or killed by the firearm manufactured, imported or dealt by the liable party.
But Richard Pearson, the head of the Illinois State Rifle Association, doesn’t think going after manufacturers is the way to curb the gun violence the state is seeing.
Pearson called the measure a “terrible bill” because the state “can’t control” what people do with guns or anything else.
He equated the measure to people suing farmers for accidents after agronomists sell their corn to an elevator that in turn sells the grain to a company that makes alcohol, which is “ridiculous.”
None of the gun laws already on the books in the U.S. will “stop criminal activity, no matter what you do, because criminals want to be criminals,” Pearson said.
“The only thing that has worked in the past is — when you get crime rates to drop — you put more police on the streets, you take the criminals who get caught, and you convict them and you put them in jail for a long time and people decide to stop doing bad stuff, but, until you do that, right now it’s just going the opposite way, like a revolving door,” Pearson said. “It’s a pretty terrible system right now.”
R. Kelly, the R&B superstar known for his anthem “I Believe I Can Fly,” was convicted Monday in a sex trafficking trial after decades of avoiding criminal responsibility for numerous allegations of misconduct with young women and children.
A jury of seven men and five women found Kelly, 54, guilty of all nine counts, including racketeering, on their second day of deliberations. Kelly wore a face mask below black-rimmed glasses, remaining motionless with eyes downcast, as the verdict was read in federal court in Brooklyn.
Prosecutors alleged that the entourage of managers and aides who helped Kelly meet girls — and keep them obedient and quiet — amounted to a criminal enterprise. Two people have been charged with Kelly in a separate federal case pending in Chicago.
He faces the possibility of decades in prison for crimes including violating the Mann Act, an anti-sex trafficking law that prohibits taking anyone across state lines “for any immoral purpose.” Sentencing is scheduled for May 4. […]
Several accusers testified in lurid detail during the trial, alleging that Kelly subjected them to perverse and sadistic whims when they were underage.
Well, let me tell you, as an artist, one who’s gifted, and is gifted, I think he’ll be welcomed back into Chicago as a person who can be redeemed.
You know, I’m a big believer in what is called ’second chances.’ And I actually have a bill that we got passed called The Second Chance Act, which gives individuals the opportunities to to be redeemed and to redeem themselves. So it will really all depend on him.
*** UPDATE *** From Davis’ Democratic primary opponent Kina Collins…
“Congressman Davis’ statement today was thoughtless, distasteful, and incredibly disappointing for a man charged with representing thousands of Black women and girls in our district.
“I’m shocked that my Congressman would choose today of all days to focus on second chances for a serial abuser rather than uplifting survivors. Second chances for those reentering communities from prison are critical. But by holding R. Kelly — a man who leveraged his wealth and power to evade justice and harm Black girls — as an example of what second chances look like, Davis is undermining the broader fight for justice.
“It took years of activism — led by Black women — to hold R. Kelly accountable. He has caused immeasurable harm to so many women in our district and across Chicago. He hasn’t even been sentenced, let alone begun to serve his time. When so many survivors are just now finally able to begin their healing process, Congressman Davis’ statement shows just how out of touch he is with the community he claims to represent.
“My heart goes out to survivors in IL-07 and across the country today. Our district deserves better than thoughtless leadership.”
* Related…
* R. Kelly: The history of allegations against him
Aug. 20, 2021 – The Cook County Department of Public Health today announced that all individuals, regardless of vaccination status, will be required to wear a mask indoors, beginning on Monday, Aug. 23. The order (below) requires that all people above age two who can medically tolerate a mask to wear one in multi-unit residential buildings and public places, such as restaurants, movie theaters, retail establishments, fitness clubs, and on public transportation.
“We are in a dangerous period, with the Delta variant surging, during which we must return to previous remediation measures,” said Dr. Rachel Rubin, Co-Lead and Senior Medical Officer of Cook County Department of Public Health. “We have no choice but to mandate that people wear masks indoors to help contain this spread of the virus.”
* There was a vaccine/testing requirement to attend the recent Cook County Democratic Party fundraiser, but the local and state masking requirements don’t differentiate…
The Cook County Democratic Party event tonight was a lot of fun! Having so many friends in one room was awesome! So great to be with everyone!
And there's more from this party. Remember this when your children get reprimanded for not wearing their masks properly, when you have to wear a mask to shop or attend an event or go to church, or when your business is adversely affected by mask mandates. pic.twitter.com/ZbeYUWVNSr
— Northfield Township Republican Organization (@GOPNorthfield) September 25, 2021
More pics are here. Not exactly a sea of compliance.
Also, Gov. Pritzker was there. I’m so old I remember a time in August when he skipped the state county party chairs’ brunch because it was indoors.
After well over a year of successfully fending off every legal challenge to his executive powers during the pandemic, it now appears that Gov. J.B. Pritzker might have reached the limits of his authority.
The brick wall is Illinois’ decades-old Health Care Right of Conscience Act, which originally was designed to protect doctors and other health care workers from any repercussions if they refused to participate in abortions or other medical procedures/treatments they opposed.
“The biggest source of frustration and the biggest challenge right now related to the vaccine [mandate] issue is the Health Care Right of Conscience Act and how to manage that in this environment,” Tom Bertrand, the executive director of the Illinois Association of School Boards, told me.
The statute is so broadly written that it’s being seized upon by folks who are attempting to evade the state’s vaccination/testing mandates.
Statute excerpt: “It shall be unlawful for any public official, guardian, agency, institution or entity to deny any form of aid, assistance or benefits or to condition the reception in any way of any form of aid, assistance or benefits, or in any other manner to coerce, disqualify or discriminate against any person, otherwise entitled to such aid, assistance or benefits, because that person refuses to obtain, receive, accept, perform, assist, counsel, suggest, recommend, refer or participate in any way in any form of health care services contrary to his or her conscience.”
“Conscience” is defined as “a sincerely held set of moral convictions arising from belief in and relation to God, or which, though not so derived, arises from a place in the life of its possessor parallel to that filled by God among adherents to religious faiths.” Pretty darned broad. Democrats wouldn’t ever pass that bill today, considering the climate.
The law’s definition of “health care” includes the word “testing.” And Nauvoo-Colusa School District teachers who’ve refused vaccines have convinced the school board to exempt them from the weekly mandatory testing opt-out, citing the HCRCA. The school system already is under Illinois State Board of Education probation for not enforcing the state mask mandate. The school is in Hancock County, which has a mind-numbing positivity rate of 17.6%, and just 33.4% of residents are fully vaccinated.
Nobody at the IASB or the Illinois Association of School Administrators knows yet how widespread the use of this law is, but, said one official, “It’s the most chaotic period I’ve ever seen in Illinois schools.”
“It’s really difficult right now because there’s just no clarity,” said the IASB’s Bertrand.
There is talk of attempting to require HCRCA refusers to somehow prove their beliefs are “sincerely held.” But that could be fraught with problems.
Both teachers’ unions supported the governor’s vax/test mandate. But several of their members are now raising money to hire attorneys. And that means the unions are caught in the middle.
Sarah Antonacci, the Illinois Education Association’s director of communications, said, “At this time, we are unaware of any court that has found that the law provides a basis of objection for education employees who oppose the mandates set forth in the governor’s Executive Order.”
Antonacci also admitted that the issue had created a rift between those who support the mandate “and those who believe the government may have overstepped its bounds in mandating any of these things”
Illinois Federation of Teachers President Dan Montgomery said the existing law “did not contemplate a global health pandemic,” but said it “could take a long time” to settle legal questions in the judicial branch.
I asked both politically powerful unions if they would support a legislative fix to clarify that the law does not apply in these cases. Only the IFT’s Montgomery answered, saying the union “would consider supporting” a change.
Beyond a general support for the governor’s COVID response, the Democratic super majority in the General Assembly has shied away from legislation because an intense backlash can so easily be ginned up on Facebook nowadays. Since there was no real need to step in as long as the courts were siding with Pritzker, members would just as soon let that sleeping dog lie.
But there may be no choice now. The governor’s people say they need an amendment to the current law if there’s any hope of enforcement. I think there could be a way to press hard on the “sincerely held” beliefs angle but, barring that, if legislative Democrats want to see this thing through, then they may have to finally stick their political necks out.
* The Illinois FOP released this statement on Sunday…
Statement from Fraternal Order of Police State Lodge President Chris Southwood regarding contemplated changes to the Health Care Right of Conscience Act:
“As we have previously stated, we are not opposed to the COVID-19 vaccine, we are opposed to being forced to take it. Furthermore, the ILFOP is vehemently opposed to any proposed changes to the Health Care Right of Conscience Act that would diminish any individual’s right to their religious liberties and choose what is or is not injected into their body.”
“We also decry the state’s attempt to force targeted groups of citizens, such as law enforcement officers, first responders, correctional officers, teachers and others, to a forced vaccine as a condition of employment. In America, the land of the free, laws shouldn’t be changed just because they don’t fit the current political agenda of our elected politicians who sometimes forget the rights of ‘we the people’ who elected them.”
“Conscience is an individual’s most sacred right, and the Constitutional right of religious freedom prevents the government from imposing the beliefs of one segment of the population onto another.”
At Jacksonville public schools, school Superintendent Steve Ptacek published a letter they sent the governor and Illinois State Board of Education saying that the district won’t be excluding staff without more clarity. Ptacek outlined the dilemma: “If we exclude staff that are not complying with Executive Order 2021-20, we assume substantial legal risk, but if we do not exclude employees, we are in defiance of an executive order.”
Defying the governor’s orders could lead to the Illinois State Board of Education putting the district on probation, and possibly impacting state funding to the district.
Ptacek’s letter said it can’t risk taxpayer resources on lengthy lawsuits challenging the governor’s mandate under the HCRCA that could come with tens of thousands in legal liabilities.
“For a $50,000/year employee, the penalties and costs could very realistically cost the taxpayers $500,000 per incident,” he said of potential legal liability if someone wins a case under the HCRCA.
