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New GDP numbers could signal trouble for Illinois’ more optimistic budget forecast

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s FY 2026 Economic Forecast and Revenue Estimate and FY 2025 Revenue Update

• [National] In February, an aggregation of economic forecasts predicts average real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026.

Real GDP in Illinois

• Illinois has consistently grown at a slower rate than the U.S. as a whole.
• Since 1998, the U.S. has averaged real GDP growth of 2.4% per year, while Illinois has averaged growth of 1.4%.
• Illinois has only grown faster than the nation in three years between 1998 and 2023.
• Illinois contracted in the first quarter of 2024 (-1.8%), before rebounding in the second (2.8%) and third quarters (2.0%).
• In February, S&P Global forecasted real GDP growth for Illinois of 1.8% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026.

* NPR

Figures released by the Commerce Department Wednesday show that the United States’ gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, after growing at a solid pace of 2.4% in the final months of 2024. […]

Growth was dragged down in part by a surge of imports, as businesses and consumers raced to stock up before Trump’s sweeping tariffs took effect in early April. Imports are a net negative for GDP. Government spending was also down.

Personal spending, which is the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, also slowed during the first quarter, after robust growth at the end of last year. Personal spending grew at an annual rate of just 1.8% in January, February and March — less than half the pace of the previous quarter.

While the job market has so far held up well, with an unemployment rate of just 4.2% in March, the Conference Board’s survey found expectations about the job market are the worst since 2009, when the economy was hemorrhaging hundreds of thousands of jobs every month.

You’ll recall that COGFA’s projected revenue estimates were significantly lower than the governor’s budget office projections last month.

The governor’s budget director at one point hinted that April’s tax receipts might out-perform expectations, and we’ll know more in a few days or so about that (and since April’s receipts will be based mainly on last year’s income, they could very well be significantly higher). Illinois’ unemployment rate in March was 4.8 percent, unchanged from the previous month and down a tick from the previous year. Employment is a hard indicator. When jobs fall, trouble is afoot. But that hasn’t yet been reported. And the GDP drop, as noted above, is tied in part to a surge in pre-tariff import buying.

Anyway, that’s a lot to digest, and there’s even more out there, but the bottom line is the headline on this post. So, buckle up for FY26. [This post has been updated for clarity.]

  20 Comments      


Mayor’s 87 percent transit ridership remarks turned back on him when it comes to funding (Updated)

Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson held a quick press conference this morning before meeting with the three tops. He was asked several questions about mass transit governance and funding

Reporter: It’s not on your public list of priorities but, you know, transit. The governance and structural effects and potential funding. Why wasn’t that on your list of priorities and do you have a specific ask, either on the governance model or on how we raise revenue?

Johnson: Well, because it’s on the priority list of the entire state of Illinois. There’s a specific list and then there are the things that we know we have to do, right? So my team, working with the CTA, has been very clear about the importance of ensuring the region that generates 87 percent of the ridership has to receive its fair share in funding. That’s not an unusual ask. That’s been the ongoing characterization of the people of Chicago in the region since Mayor Harold Washington, right? So that has been a part of a larger, broader conversation around a host of issues. But these [his Statehouse list of asks] are very specific, modest presentations that speak to some of the technical things that we can do to sharpen our ability to deliver quality services for the people of Chicago.

Reporter: President Preckwinkle has told me she does favor a consolidation of the [transit] agencies. Are you worried that what may come out of this that you know, kind of Chicago loses its influence over regional transit?

Mayor Johnson: Well, again, my responsibility as Chief Executive of Chicago is to advocate for the best interest of the people in Chicago. That’s what I’m doing. It’s no secret, again in the CTA region, we generate 87 percent of the ridership. So the economic vibrancy of our public transit system is centered in the city of Chicago. So the city of Chicago deserves its fair share, and we continue to advocate for that as I’ve already done.

Reporter: Along the same lines, what sort of funding models do you think would be helpful for state lawmakers, at least in the short term?

Yeah, that’s a great question. Look, I think that there are a number of elements that have been discussed throughout this entire process. I’m not going to act as if there’s one particular form of funding that works best. What my intentions are is to ensure that the voice of Chicago is speaking in unison. Again… 87 percent of the ridership and the revenue was generated from the city of Chicago. And so a funding mechanism that doesn’t hurt anyone, working people, and a funding mechanism that allows for those that have means are able to contribute more to the vibrancy of our city and our state.

Reporter: Just to follow up. On every point you mentioned that [87] percent. Does that mean the city of Chicago, the residents should be the majority group funding public transportation?

Johnson: I mean, that’s a conclusion that one can draw, right? You know, look, I believe in sharing. I’m a middle child. I’m accustomed to do it, and the people of Chicago deserve their fair share. That’s all.

My hat’s off to Ben Szalinski of Capitol News Illinois for that last follow-up.

…Adding… Hmm…


Reminder: 55% of existing transit funding in northeastern Illinois — including taxes and fares — comes from outside the city proper

[image or embed]

— Star:Line Chicago (@starlinechicago.bsky.social) April 30, 2025 at 11:03 AM

* Meanwhile, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle had this to say to Isabel today about consolidating the mass transit systems…

Well, the first thing I have to say is our priority in this legislative session is transportation legislation… We believe that we have to have an integrated, comprehensive, accountable system, and that’s not where we are at the moment. So we really need support, both for changes in governance, in our system, and more resources. And RTA has estimated that the shortfall on the revenue side will be about $770 million in the coming year. So we’ve got challenges. […]

We’re interested in a system that’s more streamlined.

Please pardon any transcription errors.

  26 Comments      


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* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Madigan sentenced to 90 months in prison, 3 years’ probation, $2.5 million fine - Will report to prison Oct. 13
* Credit Unions Applaud Lawmakers For Delaying Interchange Fee Prohibition Act
* Roundup: Pritzker testifies before Congress
* Why Are Tax-Exempt Hospitals Getting Rich?
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
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