For Illinois, the strong-arm approach by Trump has meant regular threats to a range of federal funding streams, which add up to a minimum of $61.5 billion over the coming decade, according to a review by Crain’s of both threats to cut funding and actual cuts implemented under the Trump administration.
Although cuts to Medicaid by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed last July comprise the lion’s share of the losses — approximately $48 billion over the next decade — there are also several other instances of the Trump administration pulling or threatening to pull billions more from Illinois and Chicago.
For instance, $2.1 billion in federal funds intended for the Chicago Transit Authority to expand the Red Line have been in limbo for about a year now, another $2.7 billion in federal funding for the city of Chicago has been in dispute for months due to Trump’s attacks on “sanctuary cities,” and Trump has tried to cut $1 billion from Illinois that was intended to help needy families, food banks and school lunches for children.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg: There have been scores of other threats Trump and his administration have made against Illinois and Chicago since his second term began over funding for energy projects, education programs, health care for transgender patients and more.
* Along those same lines, this is from the governor’s State of the State/Budget address last week…
$8.4 billion dollars. That is how much the Trump administration has cost the people of Illinois.
Alongside many other states, Illinois is fighting more than 50 cases in court where the federal government is illegally confiscating money that has already been promised and appropriated by the Congress to the people of Illinois.
These are not handouts. These are dollars that real Illinoisans paid in federal taxes and that have been constitutionally approved by our elected Democratic and Republican representatives in Washington.
I told subscribers about that last week, but I haven’t seen much, if any coverage on his claim. Maybe I missed it.
* The governor’s office included this walk-down in its address package…
President Trump is costing Illinois an estimated $8.4 billion through Trump’s second term (FY29), according to a Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) budget compilation. No state in America can just backfill billions in federal funding. Sticking to the path of fiscal responsibility will not be easy, but Illinois will get it done.
Here are the four main ways Trump is costing the people of Illinois:
1. Shifting longstanding federal duties and costs to the states. Trump changed longstanding SNAP federal-state cost-sharing arrangements, in an attempt to push working families and seniors off these programs.
Under Trump’s budget bill, Illinois taxpayers could have to cover as much as $1.2 billion to keep Illinoisans covered by the SNAP food assistance program through fiscal year 2029. Additionally, the state share of SNAP administrative costs is increasing from 50 percent to 75 percent, resulting in an estimated $80 million annual cost increase for Illinois just to maintain the same level of service.
• $1.45 billion – Total lost federal funding for SNAP through FY29
Similarly, Illinois relies on hospital and managed care organization (MCO) provider taxes to draw down federal Medicaid matching funds. Trump’s bill gradually reduces the maximum allowable provider tax rate from 6.0 percent to 3.5 percent by FY2032, significantly limiting the state’s ability to finance Medicaid.
• $1.06 billion – Total amount of Illinois funding needed to replace lost provider taxes to maintain federal support for the Medicaid program through FY29
2. Tax cuts for big corporations reduce revenue for states. Trump’s budget bill included tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations, which in turn is slashing revenue for Illinois. These reductions stem primarily from changes enacted under Trump’s budget bill, including the corporate tax provisions that lower the federal taxable base Illinois is “coupled” to. While the state acted to decouple from some of these corporate taxes, not all of them were. As a result, Illinois faces:
• $1.47 billion – Total lost state tax revenue from federal tax changes through FY29
3. Tariffs are driving up prices. Reckless tariffs raised costs on construction materials, equipment, and technology—expenses Illinois can’t avoid. Examples include:
• The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) estimates $249M– $585M in higher costs over two years on projects
• The Illinois Capital Development Board (CDB) estimates $3.6M annually in increased construction costs
• The Illinois Department of Innovation and Technology estimates a potential $2 million annual impact on technology costs
4. Frozen, canceled, and unlawfully restricted federal funds hinder Illinois from receiving what it is owed. The Trump administration is costing Illinois as federal funds hang in the balance. Congress has authorized federal grants for health care, education, and public safety—grants that the federal government is obligated to deliver to states. But Trump has outright cut, frozen, or forced the state to fight for what Illinois is owed through litigation—putting benefits and services in jeopardy while also forcing Illinois to spend more on legal fees.
Examples include:
• Social Services Programs, including Child Care, through Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Child Care Development Fund (CCDF), and Social Services Block Grants (SSBG) – ~$1.04B per year
• Public Health COVID Funds – $100M
• Solar for All – $144M
• Criminal Justice Grants – $50M
• EPA Charging Infrastructure – $100M
• Local Food for Schools – $26M
Discuss.
…Adding… DNC…
Costs:
• Working Illinoisans have already lost $766 dollars from paying higher costs due to Trump’s inflation.
• Working families have also lost $760 dollars last year from Trump and Republicans’ Big Ugly Bill and reckless tariffs.
Health Care and Food Assistance:
• Trump and Republicans refused to extend ACA tax credits, which nearly 395,850 Illinoisans relied on last year.
• Republicans’ failure to extend enhanced ACA tax credits is expected to raise premiums for marketplace enrollees by 209% in Illinois.
• Thanks to Trump and Republicans’ health care agenda, 520,000 Illinoisans will lose insurance by 2034.
• Donald Trump’s SNAP cuts will cause 1,102,000 Illinoisans to lose some or all of their food assistance.
Unemployment:
• Illinois has lost 7,100 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office.
* Yesterday, we saw a guy who has dedicated his congressional career to raising as much money as humanly possible attacking a rival US Senate candidate over contributions that her national lt. governor’s association received. Then, we talked about the response, which blasted said congresscritter for some money he has raised, even though the candidate in question is being funded primarily by our billionaire governor.
…Adding… The Peters campaign has sent a take-down demand to all TV stations airing the spot. Click here.
Peters campaign…
“These attacks–paid for by literal corrupt corporate interests, against a candidate who has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and End Citizens United–would be laughable if they weren’t so sinister,” said Peters. “What we have here is a super PAC funded by Trump-aligned billionaires who are intentionally lying to Black voters to try to steal this congressional seat. It won’t work. Our grassroots-powered campaign is surging, and these right-wing special interests know it.
* Sen. Laura Fine was most definitely not interested in standing up to Mike Madigan during the #MeToo era or when he was being openly investigated by the feds. Yet, here’s her congressional campaign redboxing page…
It’s not that Daniel is too conservative or too liberal; it’s that he’ll be whatever he needs to be to win his next election. And there’s always a next election. He’s run for state legislature, Governor, Comptroller, Mayor, and now Congress … for Daniel, it’s all about Daniel.
Proof Points:
• Biss cozied up to Mike Madigan to help build his political profile and even ran his Super PAC, “working hand-in-glove” with the disgraced former Speaker … then tried to run for Governor as an anti-Madigan reformer just months later, when he thought it would help his campaign;
Whistleblower Alaina Hampton and State Rep. Kelly Cassidy reacted on Tuesday to State Sen. Laura Fine’s recent attacks on Mayor Daniel Biss in the race to fill the open seat in the 9th Congressional District. Fine and her right-wing super PAC backers have attempted to falsely paint Biss as having “cozied up to Mike Madigan.”
In a joint statement, Hampton and Cassidy responded: […]
Amid the firestorm surrounding these allegations, multiple current candidates in Illinois’ 9th Congressional District had the opportunity to speak up in support of us.
Only one did: Daniel Biss. Senator Fine remained silent.
Daniel was the first legislative Democrat in Illinois to call for Madigan’s resignation as Illinois Democratic Party chair as sexual harassment allegations emerged. In 2020, Daniel was one of 53 Illinois Democratic leaders to call for Madigan’s resignation in an open letter. Laura Fine did not sign. And when we were on the receiving end of the full force of the Madigan machine’s pressure, Daniel spoke out privately and publicly and made it clear that he believed us. He was not afraid. He was not willing to let us take the brunt of the attacks alone.
Laura Fine, on the other hand, was nowhere to be found.
When she finally did tepidly find her voice, it was years later, once it was “safe.” She never spoke out in support of “The 19” members of the House who courageously pledged to vote against Madigan for Speaker in 2020.
For these reasons and more, we have found Senator Fine’s attempt to smear Daniel as a Madigan ally through her dark money, MAGA-aligned super PAC not only preposterous, but personally offensive.
Senator Fine had many opportunities to speak up in support of those impacted by sexual harassment and violence in the Madigan organization, and she did nothing of the sort. The brazenness with which she now wields that moment as a political weapon is disgusting. She should be ashamed, but given the tens of thousands of dollars she has taken from Trump donors, she does not appear capable of that.
* Back to the crypto bros. Keep in mind the reports that cryptocurrency has been used by all sorts of nefarious types. NBC Chicago…
It isn’t uncommon for political candidate to decry “dark money” in elections, but the situation has reopened old wounds for [7th CD candidate] State Rep. La Shawn Ford.
Recent advertisements have turned back the clock to a situation more than a dozen years ago in which he was facing 17 felony counts of federal bank fraud.
Two years later, all were dropped by federal prosecutors in exchange for his pleading guilty to a single misdemeanor income tax charge. […]
“I am not a felon,” Ford told reporters Monday. “When I look at the ads on TV that darkens me up and try to make me fearful and scary looking to voters and people. It’s heartbreaking.” […]
“It’s especially dangerous and I would say, in all fairness, this is right wing billionaire driven.” said Robert Peters, who is running for the 2nd district seat being vacated by Rep. Robin Kelly, who is running for U.S. Senate. “We are talking about millions of dollars.”
Click here for the crypto-backed ad attacking Rep. Ford.
* More from Isabel…
* Evanston Now | Dueling attack ads hit the airwaves: After this story was first published, the super PAC backing State Sen. Laura Fine’s campaign filed a report with the FEC disclosing its spending on the negative advertisements, totaling about $683,000. The super PAC had already spent over $1.9 million in pro-Fine ads to date.
* WGN | Negative ads dominate Illinois primary races in final weeks: With just three weeks left before Primary Election Day in Illinois, the knives are out. Candidates and financial backers are on the airwaves with a slew of negative ads in several key races. Candidates running for Dick Durbin’s Senate seat are taking aim at each other in the homestretch, with accusations about where their funding comes from. There are also new attacks in the Republican race for Governor and the Cook County Assessor race. Political Editor Tahman Bradley sits down with multimedia journalist Brandon Pope and former State Representative Mike Zalewski to break down all the latest developments.
* Sun-Times | Progressives pack Democratic primary race to replace U.S. Rep. Danny Davis: While all 13 Democratic primary candidates praised Davis’ legacy, they each told the Sun-Times their diverse district, winding from Englewood up the Loop and west to Austin and several suburbs, is due for a fresh voice in Washington to counter Trump administration policies and address the rising cost of living. Davis himself suggested that voice should come from another familiar West Side face, state Rep. La Shawn Ford, whom the congressman endorsed while announcing his retirement last summer.
* Tribune | Lead prosecutor in ‘Broadview Six’ immigration protest case leaving for DC ahead of high-profile trial: The lead prosecutor in the politically charged ‘Broadview Six’ case accusing a group of Democrats and other protesters of conspiring to impede immigration agents at the Broadview ICE facility is leaving the office for a temporary detail in Washington D.C. […] In a motion filed Monday, the defendants said body-worn camera footage from Broadview police officers on the scene that day shows Abughazaleh move away from the agents’ vehicle she was allegedly impeding, grab a megaphone and tell the crowd “that’s private property back there — come back.”
* Hyde Park Herald | Key candidates skip forum in crowded 2nd District race: While Ransby-Sporn said Miller was absent due to a scheduling conflict, state Sen. Willie Preston (D-16th) wasted little time offering his own explanation during his opening remarks. “Commissioner Miller is at a fundraiser right now, showing up for AIPAC and not for people in this room,” he said. “That’s the type of Congresswoman that she’s going to be if elected.” Miller’s campaign denied attending an AIPAC fundraiser, saying she was at two events “talking to Democratic primary voters,” one of which was at the Chicago Southland Chamber of Commerce in Hazel Crest. Preston did not provide evidence for this claim when asked by the Herald.
* Daily Herald | Who’s going to the State of the Union and who’s boycotting it? Illinois lawmakers are split: A Dreamer who inspired legislation, the founder of a health care clinic that helps uninsured patients, and a suburban executive who successfully sued the Trump administration over tariffs are among the guests Democratic Illinois lawmakers will bring to the State of the Union address. Meanwhile, several legislators are boycotting the Tuesday speech, including U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who said her office “has been flooded with calls asking me to skip this speech and take a stand.”
Illinois Future PAC released a new television ad, Sold Us Out, making Raja Krishnamoorthi’s ten-year record of selling out Illinoisans clear and responding to misleading attacks from his stalled U.S. Senate campaign.
The ad highlights Krishnamoorthi’s decade long record of accepting campaign donations from an ICE contractor while repeatedly voting to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement. During a period when immigrant communities in Chicago were facing aggressive raids and family separations under Donald Trump, Krishnamoorthi continued taking that money and even voted to honor ICE.
The new ad comes as Krishnamoorthi’s campaign escalates negative and misleading television attacks, a move that reflects his inability to defend his own record and failure to climb in the polls despite millions in spending.
Raja Krishnamoorthi is trying to distract voters with dishonest and desperate attacks while Juliana Stratton has a strong record of action in defending Illinois values. As Lieutenant Governor, Juliana has consistently stood with immigrant families, opposed Trump’s cruel immigration agenda, and worked with Gov. Pritzker to make Illinois a firewall of protections against federal overreach. She has been a clear, vocal advocate for humane immigration policies and a partner to community leaders fighting back against ICE abuses.
Today, one of the two dark-money super PACs backing Juliana Stratton – which earlier this year got caught violating “federal disclosure requirements” to mislead Illinois voters – released yet another misleading ad. The super PAC’s new spot aims to distract voters from Stratton’s hypocritical record of accepting corporate and MAGA money, relying on ICE contractor donations to boost her Senate bid, and getting caught breaking federal law.
“Raja Krishnamoorthi is an immigrant who has fought like hell to rein in ICE and hold Donald Trump and his roving gangs accountable. Stratton’s dark money super PAC – which has already gotten caught misleading Illinois voters – is trying to distract from the fact that she is backed by MAGA donors and ICE contractors who helped run the Broadview ICE facility. Illinoisans cannot trust Juliana Stratton or her super PAC friends,” said Raja for Illinois spokesperson Hannah Goss.
* Text from a prominent subscriber over the weekend…
New Indiana fiscal note dropped Friday night. An absolute cornucopia of new taxes.
Admissions tax established. New one percent food and beverage tax in Lake and Porter County. New Lake County 5% hotel tax. Creation of special taxing district in Hammond that captures sales, use tax, and income tax(!) paid within the district. Two new funds created for the collection of “all excise taxes.” Incremental sales and property tax growth in district is captured. Tollway pays for any related road improvements in a 7 county area. One provision reads: “at least 50% of the cost of the project to construct a professional spoon facility must be provided by private investment” — which kinda implies the taxpayers will be on the hook for 49%
I’m probably missing stuff.
Whew.
Click here to see what the subscriber missed, if anything.
After jolting Illinois leaders by praising Indiana’s stadium push, the Chicago Bears now say they are moving forward on legislation in Springfield.
“We continue to work with Illinois’ leadership and appreciate the progress being made,” Bears CEO Kevin Warren said today in a statement shared with Crain’s.
The shift in tone comes two days after the team hailed an Indiana House committee’s approval of a stadium finance authority in Hammond as the “most meaningful efforts in our stadium planning efforts to date” — a statement that drew a sharp rebuke from Gov. JB Pritzker, who said he was “surprised, dismayed and very disappointed” by that messaging.
Pritzker noted that the Bears’ enthusiastic assessment of Indiana’s efforts came just a day after his staff, legislators and team representatives met for three hours to discuss legislation the team is seeking in Illinois.
Wherever the Bears end up, city and state officials are laying the groundwork for a Bears-less future at Soldier Field. Fox 32 Chicago has learned that members of the Chicago Park District have been quietly pitching a plan for the 101-year-old stadium to state lawmakers and the governor’s office in recent weeks.
The plan involves transforming the stadium into a massive concert and special event venue, and it carries an expected price tag of $630 million, according to a draft of the presentation shared with Fox 32 Chicago.
Sources say the money breaks down to $130 million in direct stadium renovations, including a new sound system and new dressing rooms, and half a billion in surrounding infrastructure to tackle traffic management and parking.
Park District officials say a chunk of the cost could be covered by the Bears — who will owe nearly $90 million if they break their lease with the Park District before 2033. Park District officials are pitching state lawmakers on a funding package that would include money from the state’s road fund — paid for by motor fuel taxes — to help with the infrastructure upgrades.
As Indiana and Illinois lawmakers spar over where the Chicago Bears should build a new stadium, even Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker acknowledged Friday that the team’s next home is unlikely to rise within Chicago’s city limits.
“I think now there’s a common understanding by most of the (Illinois) General Assembly that they’re not going to be able to build in the city of Chicago,” Pritzker said.
Pritzker’s pronouncement came a day after Indiana lawmakers took another step toward potentially luring the Chicago Bears across the border to Hammond, as a key Indiana House committee approved a plan to create an agency that would build a new stadium for the team.
The vote more firmly pits Indiana versus Illinois as the Bears weigh a move from Soldier Field, their home for more than half a century. And given the lack of movement on any stadium projects near Soldier Field or elsewhere in Chicago, Pritzker’s latest comments suggest that Illinois’ only viable option is the land the Bears own in northwest suburban Arlington Heights.
The poll is here. They didn’t ask about the Bears stadium for some reason.
Also, the Indiana Capital Chronicle has a couple of good stories on this Bears topic, plus this tidbit…
Gov. Mike Braun gave several television interviews over the weekend on the topic saying the likelihood of the move is now “better than 50/50.” In another interview he said he hoped to “ink” the deal “within a month or two.”
