That toddlin’ town roundup: Poll has Vallas’ Black support plummeting
Thursday, Mar 23, 2023 - Posted by Rich Miller * New poll…
More here, but some trends outside of the 3.45 MoE are emerging as voters get to know the two candidates better. By far the most important trend is that even after several high-profile endorsements by Black leaders, Vallas’ support among Black voters has dropped by 13 points since the last poll taken March 6-9. Johnson’s Black support is up by 11 points. Johnson’s support is rising among women (up 4 points), men (up 6 points), age 46-60 (up 5.5 points), and progressives (up 11 points). Again, at least some of this is because people are just finding out who he is (and are overcoming their anger/disappointment that their first round candidate lost). Vallas is up among men (4 points), White voters (10 points), Latino voters (6 points) and conservatives (10 points). His support among women is essentially unchanged, which is not a good sign. And undecideds are down from 16 to 10. …Adding… I chatted last night with an elected official who said the same exact thing, but I didn’t check all three of the pollster’s results today. Vallas is in the mid 40s, where he has been pretty much the whole time. Is 45-46 a Vallas ceiling? The elected thought it was and that Johnson would overcome it. We’ll see…
* Eric Zorn makes a good point today that Johnson’s endorsements are almost all expected in one way or another. Vallas’ backing, however, has included some shockers, including Jesse White. Whether it does him any good or not is yet to be seen. * Oh, for Pete’s sake…
* The Cook County Democratic Women’s PAC was shut down by the Illinois State Board of Elections way back in 2014 after it was deemed inactive. The committee faced multiple fines. Press release…
* And now let’s look at Senate Bill 2339, which was introduced back in 2018…
The bill was sponsored by then Sen. Tony Muñoz. It was amended in the House and then died in the Senate. Brandon Johnson weighed in at the time…
Today from the Vallas campaign…
* Moving right along, notice anything missing from this story?…
It’s right that Bailey didn’t endorse Vallas, as we discussed yesterday. But Bailey didn’t just “talk about” Brandon Johnson. Bailey said that if Johnson was elected, “it’s going to be a dark day.” Also, it’s not just that Vallas spent a lot of time on talk radio shows, for crying out loud, it’s what he said on those shows and in other venues. For instance…
And somebody dug up this little quote from Vallas on Jeanne Ives’ podcast last year…
“Political science” was a common phrase used by covid deniers. Just sayin. * An excerpt from the Sun-Times story on Johnson’s meeting with the Crain’s editorial board…
Johnson could probably offer to babysit the Speaker’s kids for free anytime, anywhere and he still couldn’t pass that transaction tax. It’s folly. But, yeah, decent point about Vallas. A case can be made that New York City’s mayor hurt the Democratic Party last year by focusing on their soft on crime ways. Vallas could be much, much worse. * Isabel’s roundup… * Chalkbeat | Chicago school leaders foresee declining revenue but promise more investments: A district report last fall noted the city has shifted costs onto the district and could offload more expenses amid a transition from mayoral control to an elected school board. The report described the district’s financial outlook as “fragile” and warned of a potential $628 million deficit by 2026, which represents about 6% of this year’s $9.5 billion budget. * Sun-Times | Johnson won’t identify ‘plan B’ for revenue if City Council, legislature resist tax hikes: Johnson’s plan to help bankroll an array of new social programs is the cornerstone of his anti-violence strategy. It initially included a “Metra city surcharge” to raise $40 million “from the suburbs.” It still includes taxes on high-end home sales and financial transactions; a revived employee head tax; increased taxes on jet fuel and hotel rooms; and “new user fees for high-end commercial districts frequented by the wealthy, suburbanites, tourists and business travelers.” * Block Club | Will Retired Cops Return To CPD? Would More Detectives Curb Crime? Vallas, Johnson Spar Over Public Safety Platforms: Vallas also blamed Johnson and Chicago Teachers Union leadership for extended school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Johnson is a former CTU organizer and the union is one of his largest donors. * ABC Chicago | Vallas, Johnson spar over Kim Foxx’s performance and policing in schools: “She has led with an incredible amount of integrity. She’s been part of the type of reform that’s needed,” Johnson said. But, Vallas voiced his concerns about Foxx. “She has not been aggressive at keeping dangerous criminals off the street, and the data clearly states it,” Vallas said. … “He remains a paid employee from the Chicago Teachers Union. At the end of the day, what has he run? What has he managed? He’s voted on budgets. He’s never managed a budget,” Vallas said. “We all know someone like Paul who has failed over and over again and continues to be allowed to fail up,” Johnson said. * CBS Chicago | Johnson, Vallas get heated in attacks on each other’s positions in roundtable forum: One question raised at the forum to which the candidates’ positions has not made headlines before was whether Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx has made Chicago safer. Neither Johnson nor Vallas directly answered the question, but their responses did not suggest they are on the same page about Foxx. * CBS Chicago | What would Vallas, Johnson do to reverse downtown retail exodus? Both are short on specifics: “Michigan Avenue may have a vision for how they can revitalize – but yet the city regulatory department seems to be an obstacle,” Vallas said. Is Vallas short on specifics? Yes. But so is Johnson. “I’ve thought about this a lot,” Johnson said at a mayoral question-and-answer session earlier this week. “This is really about attracting innovative corporations to the city of Chicago.” * The Crusader | Coalition of women in ‘spirit of Mayor Washington’ endorses Johnson: Among the scores of women attending a press conference at Rainbow PUSH Coalition headquarters in support of Johnson, was Dr. Jacqueline Jackson, wife of Reverend Jesse Jackson. She told the Chicago Crusader, “We intend to win with Brandon because he’s the best man for the job and I’ve always been for the very best.” * Read Paul Vallas’ answers to Crain’s candidates’ questionnaire : “From the outside, from information that is publicly available, one might reactively advance proposals for spending and program cuts. But that would make proposals and prioritize solely on the basis of the portion of the iceberg that is above the surface, knowing that the greater mass warranting consideration is beneath the surface. This is further complicated by the fact that the city data is routinely flawed or fluffed, that most portions of the city operate without data-driven program and policy performance metrics and milestones, and more at the margin but not inconsiderable, a practice we came to learn in the last cycle of budget hearings of funds appropriated for specific purpose which the administration did not allow expenditure and implementation.” * Tribune | Public safety and environmental concerns are at the forefront in 10th Ward runoff: Chico and Guajardo made the April 4 runoff out of the five candidates in the Feb. 28 general election. None of the five won a majority of the vote, forcing the runoff between the top two vote-getters. Chico garnered 40.5% of the vote in February while Guajardo got 26.5%, or about 1,000 fewer votes than Chico, but she’s been steadily beating Chico in fundraising. * The Hill | Chicago mayoral race underscores city’s racial divisions: “Chicago has always been a city that has been very explicitly divided by racial politics,” explained Twyla Blackmond Larnell, associate professor of political science at Loyola University Chicago and faculty affiliate for the school’s Institute for Racial Justice. “Race is definitely one of the major cornerstones of how politics gets done in the city,” she continued. “Power is divvied up according to racial groups, but also you have to account for who in those groups has access to the social, economic and political resources that are needed to win elections as well.” * The Triibe | What anti-CTU rhetoric in the mayoral runoff election reveals about Chicago: According to several people who spoke to The TRiiBE, anti-CTU rhetoric during the election is grounded in a perceived fear that if Johnson becomes mayor, the issues that CTU has been organizing around for more than a decade, such as education, housing, and healthcare, would lead to the disruption of the city’s status quo and the interests of Chicago’s elite. * Block Club | Chicago Schools Poised To Vote On Keeping Police On Campuses: There are 59 police officers stationed across 40 Chicago public schools. Each school will convene a safety committee before local school councils vote by June 2 on keeping officers in schools, officials said. * Block Club | 36th Ward Candidates To Debate Northwest Side Ward’s Issues Thursday In Ukrainian Village: Villegas is headed to a runoff April 4 after failing to garner a majority of the votes to secure reelection to his third City Council term. As alderperson, the retired marine has pushed for a universal basic income program and to reinstate the City Council’s Office of Veterans Affairs. He’s also endorsed a plan to reopen the closed 13th Police District in West Town, which was closed in 2012 as part of a citywide consolidation of police resources. * Lynn Osmond, Larita Clark | Don’t forget tourism in the economic development equation: We all agree that Chicago is a great destination to live, work and play. As we look to the future, we want to work with the next mayor to continue to build a positive narrative about Chicago. This does not mean ignoring our challenges; rather, it is about recognizing our strengths while working to address our weaknesses. We need to share the positive stories about the city we love and talk about why Chicago is a great place to visit. * Block Club | Tickets, Signs Not Stopping Illegal Parking In Bike Lanes Where 2 Cyclists Killed, Northwest Siders Say: The 3800 block of North Milwaukee Avenue near North Kilbourn Avenue — which has seen two cyclists killed since 2019, car crashes, illegal parking and ongoing construction — has been set to receive concrete curb barriers since the second half of 2022 as part of the city’s bike safety upgrade to the area — but less than half of the Milwaukee stretch has completed barriers.
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Giannoulias awarding grants to combat carjackings and vehicle thefts
Thursday, Mar 23, 2023 - Posted by Rich Miller * Sun-Times…
* Press release…
*** UPDATE *** From the governor’s office…
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