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Campaign notebook

Tuesday, Oct 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois Right to Life is essentially looking the other way while Bailey attempts to reinvent his image

He’s running for the highest seat in Illinois government, but Republican candidate Darren Bailey says he’d be powerless to change abortion laws if elected.

“Nothing’s going to change when I’m governor. I couldn’t change them if I could [sic],” Bailey said at the debate Thursday night.

Anti-abortion groups have backed Bailey since the primary. His apparent side step of the issue Thursday did not shake their faith in their candidate.

“Bailey is unapologetically pro-life and he will work to undo some of the extremism that we have in our state right now.” Amy Gehrke, the executive director of Illinois Right to Life said. […]

“If elected, I’m going to work to make sure abortion becomes unnecessary day one,” he said at a campaign event the day before the primary.

…Adding… Bailey’s running mate is not so reserved

Vowing that this is just the beginning, about 100 anti-abortion activists gathered outside a planned abortion clinic at 611 Auburn St. on Monday to pray and hear from Stephanie Trussell, the former conservative radio personality turned Republican candidate for lieutenant governor. […]

“They talk about the violence in some of these communities but more violence is happening right there in an abortion clinic,” Trussell said. “We expect people to value life, but we’re not valuing babies.”

* Meanwhile, from the Tribune

Stumping for votes in conservative southern Illinois, Republican governor hopeful Darren Bailey took the same stage as Donald Trump Jr. on Saturday night, with the former president’s son encouraging those in attendance to back Bailey while Bailey stuck to his campaign speech and didn’t publicly acknowledge the younger Trump’s presence.

The scene was markedly different from the one that unfolded in the waning days of the GOP primary this summer, when former President Donald Trump endorsed Bailey. Since that endorsement, however, Bailey has slowly tried to distance himself from Trump as Bailey faces a general electorate in Illinois that twice rejected the former president by a 17% margin.

* Really good story in the Tribune on what I believe is the most overlooked political trend in this state

(I)n the 2022 general election at least 22 Illinoisans of Asian descent are running for office in November, from county commissioner to state representative to U.S. senator.

That could herald the state’s largest Asian American caucus ever and reflects a national trend of Asian Americans getting elected to public office. […]

Jue has also consulted for Hoan Huynh, who’s running to represent portions of the North Side in the Illinois House and who would be the legislature’s first Vietnamese American representative if elected.

Jue and others who spoke with the Tribune said the current wave of Asian Americans engaged in politics is decades in the making and speaks to the organizing prowess of their community leaders. They also noted recent topics in the news — such as the rise in anti-Asian attacks and 2020 U.S. census figures showing Asians are the fastest-growing racial group in Chicago, Illinois and the country — demonstrate the urgency for more political representation. […]

[Hoan Huynh’s] Democratic primary opponents included Eileen Dordek, the former board chair of the pro-abortion rights Personal PAC who was endorsed by heavy hitters such as Gov. J.B. Pritzker, U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and a slew of other Democrats. The only elected official willing to support Huynh back then was state Rep. Theresa Mah, the first Asian American elected to the General Assembly in 2016. […]

Down in the slower paced, more homogenous towns of central Illinois, Sharon Chung didn’t plan on drawing attention to her Korean ancestry when she took office in 2018 as the first Asian American elected to the McLean County Board. In some ways, that’s still the case when she’s campaigning as the Democratic nominee for the Illinois House’s new 91st District, an open seat that was redrawn this year to bring together more Democratic-leaning voters.

* On a somewhat related note, WGN TV’s Lourdes Duarte has a good piece on the growing influence of Latinas in Illinois politics. Take some time to watch it

* Clem Balanoff was very involved in campaigns during the 1994 GOP landslide. He has seen the wild swings in off-year elections up close and personal, so when he talks about the open-seat races in the 13th and 17th congressional districts with Politico, you should listen

Balanoff, the Illinois operative, expects voter interest to continue shifting before November.

“If the election were held today, I think Democrats would win both seats. But it’s two more months, and that’s an eternity,” he said at the time, adding what would be a prescient comment. “One bad break and things change dramatically. What if OPEC said they were to cut production and prices go up? You just never know.”

* Personal PAC TV ad targeting Mark Curran

The group has a very similar ad against Justice Michael Burke. Click here.

* Politico

— IL-06: Democratic Rep. Sean Casten has been endorsed by BlueGreen Alliance, a group of labor unions and environmental organizations.

— IL-17: Republican Esther Joy King is out with a new TV ad titled “Crime.”

— State Rep. Deb Conroy is out with a new digital ad titled “Dedicated” and focused on her DuPage County board chair race.

* Tom DeVore on Twitter

Kwame Raoul is pandering for votes talking about his futile efforts to try and pass a 50-year old amendment to the constitution regarding equal women’s rights that none of you have likely ever heard about. A lot has changed since 1972 such as biological males trying to take over women’s sports & tampon dispensers in boys locker rooms. The list goes on. I have two 19-year old daughters whose rights I’ll fight for at every step and if Kwame really cared about my daughters rights, he’d address these real issues facing women today and not an out of date constitutional amendment that has little practical relevance five decades after the fact.

Also from DeVore…


Um.

* Common Cause Illinois

New voters have until today, Oct. 11, to postmark their mail-in application to register to vote in the Nov. 8 midterm election.

Should Illinois voters submit their application online, they have until Sunday, Oct. 23 at midnight. Additionally, Illinoisans should double-check their voter registration in order to update or correct any appropriate information, said Jay Young, Common Cause Illinois’ executive director.

“The right to vote is the foundation of our government, and elections — both generals and primaries — are a key element of that foundation,” Young said. “Please encourage your friends, family, and community to spend a few minutes ensuring their right to vote is intact and ready for Nov. 8 by registering to vote.”

Illinoisans can register to vote online and make any needed changes to existing voter registrations at https://ova.elections.il.gov/.

If Illinoisans miss the Oct. 11 or 23 deadline, they can still register through Same Day registration on Election Day at designated voter locations.

Other important election-related dates for voters:

    • Now - Nov. 7: Voters can request absentee or vote-by-mail ballots. If they request by mail, the request must be received by Nov. 3.
    • Now - Nov. 7: Early voting period. Check with your election authority for details.
    • Nov. 8: Absentee/mail-in ballots must be returned, either in person or by mail and postmarked by Nov. 8.
    • Nov. 8, Election Day: Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

* Roundup from Isabel…

    * ADDED: Press release: After closely aligning himself with Awake Illinois—named a “hate group” by Equality Illinois—anti-choice Republican Keith Pekau has announced plans to campaign with election-denying Congressman Jack Bergman (R-MI), a far-right Republican best known for supporting legislation to ban abortions in every case, with no exceptions for rape, incest or life of the mother. Bergman wants to go even further and create a criminal penalty for doctors who perform an abortion. Bergman is a former lobbyist for a non-profit that was forced to pay nearly one hundred million dollars to the Department of Justice for scamming veterans. He also voted against certifying the 2020 election and coordinated with local officials to attempt to overturn the results. “From accepting an award from Awake Illinois to jeopardizing the health of his constituents for cheap political points to campaigning with a radical, anti-choice insurrectionist who helped scam veterans, Keith Pekau has shown us who he is,” says Trevor Nyland, spokesperson for Casten for Congress. “It’s time that the voters of IL-06 believe him.”

    * Salvi expects ‘surprise’ win over Duckworth in Illinois Senate race: There’s a big disparity financially between the two: Duckworth with almost $8 million in campaign cash on hand at the end of June. That’s more than 100 times higher than roughly $66,000 for Salvi.

    * Lawsuits looking to block SAFE-T Act stacking up as Pritzker signals changes ahead: Last week, Sangamon County State’s Attorney Dan Wright filed a lawsuit challenging the act’s constitutionality for various reasons. Wright said in a statement the law set to take effect Jan. 1 “contains confusing and inconsistent provisions likely resulting in divergent interpretations and disparate outcomes” across the state. Other measures are clear, but raise “sincerely-held public safety concerns,” Wright said.

    * Gun violence is dropping in Chicago as police credit new tactics, community investment: While shootings like those that killed Zastro and wounded Barr continue, the violence does seem to be ebbing: An ABC News/Gun Violence Archives analysis of the nation’s 50 largest cities shows homicides are down nearly 5% from last year after two years of pandemic-era increases.

    * Candidates for Illinois governor offer ideas for gun control: There are several pending lawsuits in state and federal courts challenging a variety of Illinois’ gun laws, including the Firearm Owner’s Identification Card Act. During the first gubernatorial debate last week, Gov. J.B. Pritzker defended the FOID card system and an option to submit fingerprints.

    * Illinois political expert weighs in on first gubernatorial debate: Springfield political observer Kent Redfield said Monday that the debate likely didn’t help people who are undecided between Gov. JB Pritzker and Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia). The professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois-Springfield said Pritzker and Bailey were able to use their greatest hits with talking points about abortion, crime and the state’s economy.

    * Political expert: first governor’s debate won’t sway many voters: “There was nothing there that was a huge gaffe, a huge breakout,” Kent Redfield, political science professor emeritus of University of Illinois Springfield, said. “There’s nothing that’s going to be, you know, in the history books about what you should do right, or should do wrong in a debate.”

    * Pritzker, Bailey refuse to get specific in some important areas: For the governor, that was when he wouldn’t say what changes he’d make to the Pretrial Fairness Act provision of the SAFE-T Act criminal justice reform that will end cash bail on Jan. 1. For the governor, that was when he wouldn’t say what changes he’d make to the Pretrial Fairness Act provision of the SAFE-T Act criminal justice reform that will end cash bail on Jan. 1.

    * Supreme Court 3rd District: Burke, O’Brien vie for open seat: If Burke wins his race and Republicans also claim the newly redrawn 2nd District, the court’s majority would flip to the GOP. But Burke and O’Brien each downplayed the role partisanship plays on the court.

    * Daily Herald: Giannoulias endorsed for Secretary of State: Brady has a similar approach to providing tech upgrades, but we’re impressed by how well Giannoulias has laid his out. Giannoulias’ experience on the Chicago Public Library board — at a time when book banning is all the rage, is important as well. Giannoulias is endorsed.

    * Daily Herald Endorsement: Mendoza for Illinois comptroller: Mendoza’s record, her previous experience as a Chicago city clerk and Illinois state legislator and her seemingly boundless energy make her an exceptional fit for state comptroller. She easily wins our endorsement.

    * Illinois FOP State Lodge endorses Deering: “Regan Deering has earned our endorsement because she steadfastly supports the law enforcement officers who protect our communities, unlike many politicians, including her opponent, who favor anti-police and pro-criminal laws,” said Illinois FOP State Lodge President Chris Southwood. “Regan will be the strong voice we need in Congress to return sanity to our government and safety to our neighborhoods.”

    * Budzinski endorsement by AFFI: Today, Nikki Budzinski, candidate for Congress in Illinois’ 13th Congressional District, highlighted her endorsement from the Associated Fire Fighters of Illinois (AFFI). The AFFI organizes, supports, advocates, and promotes the interests of professional union firefighters and EMS providers in Illinois. … “Twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, fire fighters are on-call to keep us safe. And when emergencies arise, they risk their lives to protect us. I was proud to advocate for firefighters and EMS workers at the International Association of Fire Fighters – and I’m proud to have the endorsement of Associated Fire Fighters of Illinois as I run to serve Central and Southern Illinois in Congress. I’ll always work to ensure our first responders have the resources they need to stay safe as they serve our communities.”

    * Illinois Black Caucus director stands at the forefront of change: The Illinois Black Legislative Caucus Foundation is dedicated to advancing the lives of Black citizens in the state. The foundation has opened doors to opportunities for many families through student scholarship funding, weekly forums on how to become politically engaged, and securing a seat at the table to facilitate change. The executive director of the Illinois Black Legislative Caucus Foundation, Tiffany Hightower, takes pride in ensuring that African American citizens are equally represented in legislative processes.

    * Illinois election 2022: See who the Tribune Editorial Board endorsed — plus how the candidates answered our questions: Before the primaries, the Tribune Editorial Board posed a series of questions to the candidates to inform voters and make endorsements.

    * Congressional candidate says he’ll leave GOP if elected, then pulls online prank: Schakowsky campaign manager Ben Head said the congresswoman “thinks Rice’s behavior and comments speak for themselves.”

    * Opinion | More or Les: An open letter to secretary of state candidates: I think most of the time being secretary of state is a pretty good and non-controversial role: overseeing everything from what most of the rest of the world calls the department of motor vehicles to organ donor registries and working with non-profits. However, I have a couple of beefs with the last few incumbents of Illinois’ secretary of state office.

    * Mike Matejka: Amendment acts on basic protections: By voting yes, these fundamental workplace rights become more than law in Illinois, they are constitutionally protecting. Workers’ Rights Amendment opponents have raised the weak and false issue of increased taxes. There is nothing in this amendment that impacts taxes directly. This is a long-used fear tactic to evade the real issue, which is giving average working people a voice.

  26 Comments      


“Study” claims Illinoisans not likely to survive zombie apocalypse

Tuesday, Oct 11, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* RantCasino press release…

TV shows like ‘The Walking Dead’ and ‘iZombie’ have shown us that although it’s unlikely, you should always consider the possibility of a zombie apocalypse. […]

Estimations for this study are based on a sample of 369,240 globally geolocated cemeteries and graves acquired from an established public database of cemetery records. The total number of zombies is synonymous to the number of graves in the area.

With a whopping 12,691,919 potential living dead roaming the streets, New York is the worst US state to be in, should a zombie apocalypse occur. The Big Apple is also home to 9,730 cemeteries, which we recommend avoiding!

The second most dangerous state to live in during a zombie apocalypse is Pennsylvania, with 12,505,514 potential walking dead.

In third place is Ohio, with the chance to host 10,361,999 zombies during doomsday - 15% more walking dead than California which comes in fourth place with 8,732,358.

Texas comes in fifth place (8,624,922 potential zombies), followed by Illinois (8,235,259), Indiana (5,979,766) and Missouri (5,970,345). […]

Residents in Alaska might not notice there is a zombie apocalypse, with just 72,849 potential creatures roaming the streets during doomsday. The same can be said for Wyoming, the second least affected state, with only 295,117 potential zombies roaming the streets.

The third least dangerous place to live during a zombie apocalypse is Nevada (333,326 potential zombies), followed by Hawaii (343,193) and Delaware (446,313).

Here’s a link to RantCasino’s study.

* Another study by Lawn Love gave the rest of Illinois better odds

If you fear the walking dead, then your best strategy for avoiding getting bit would be to shelter in place.

Surprisingly, the Midwest is the smart choice for a hideout. The Kansas City metro area, the Twin Cities, and Chicago suburb Naperville, Illinois, are all good places to invest in a home before the apocalypse. Properties in the Midwest region are not only generous in square footage, but they also commonly come with basements that you can convert into bunkers.

* If you want to look at the rankings, here you go

* Related…

[Note from Rich: This post mysteriously disappeared from the site, so I put it back. Not sure what happened there.]

  45 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Saying the quiet part out loud in Lisle

Tuesday, Oct 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Photo taken today by a Democratic state legislator in Lisle, across the street from a high school. “Paid for” just says “Sponsored Backspace,” and, no, I don’t know what that means…

*** UPDATE *** More signs…


  25 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2 *** Rate Darren Bailey’s first broadcast TV ad

Tuesday, Oct 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The ad goes up tomorrow. Here’s a preview

* Script

Under JB Pritzker and Lori Lightfoot, crime is out of control. I’m Darren Bailey. I’ll end Pritzker’s no cash bail policy that’s putting violent criminals back on our streets. I’ll increase police recruitment and retention to put more officers in our neighborhoods. I’m Darren Bailey and your safety will always be my priority.

*** UPDATE 1 *** $355K would be a small broadcast buy…


*** UPDATE 2 *** A half mil still ain’t much. Tribune

The ad buy for the 30-second spot totals $534,000, campaign spokesman Joe DeBose said, and will include being broadcast in the expensive Chicago-area TV market. DeBose said the ad is slated to debut Wednesday or Thursday.

  42 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** SAFE-T Act was passed that way on purpose, but it’s causing problems now

Tuesday, Oct 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

“If we didn’t pass something, we wouldn’t have gotten anything from law enforcement. We wouldn’t have gotten a serious conversation,” claimed state Rep. La Shawn Ford, D-Chicago, recently about why the SAFE-T Act was originally written and passed the way it was.

Ford was speaking about the cash bail provisions within the SAFE-T Act during a public event in suburban Forest Park, according to the Forest Park Review.

Lots of folks on the other side of the negotiations were taking a hard “no” position, so a decision was essentially made to jam the bill through to eventually force the other side to the bargaining table.

The cash bail provision is the most discussed aspect of the law. But the original legislation also prevented police officers from using their body camera footage to write reports. The provision wasn’t designed to be permanent but was specifically inserted to make the other side adopt a good faith position at the bargaining table. It worked, and the provision was removed in a subsequent trailer bill.

The difference between these two topics, of course, is the end of cash bail has caused big public relations headaches for the Democratic Party in the lead-up to the general election, as state’s attorneys, sheriffs, police chiefs and others have denounced the law in a way that has put the majority party on the defensive.

But the Democrats have such large supermajorities with a new and more favorable legislative district map they apparently believed they could assume the risk.

Ford and others have said privately and publicly that some components of the law will have to be changed. But they are sticking with the overall concepts. And with less than three months before the elimination of cash bail and other provisions of the law take effect, maybe the gambit will work.

But it hasn’t come without political trouble for people like Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

I saw Pritzker at an event not long after he refused to answer a question from my associate Isabel Miller about what specific changes he would like to make to the SAFE-T Act. I warned him that, since he agreed the law needed to be changed, Isabel’s question wasn’t going away.

Well, the governor dodged the same question again and again during and after last week’s televised gubernatorial debate, saying only he wants unspecified “clarifications” to the law.

The governor likely didn’t want to insult the Black Caucus or have any sort of negative impact on the trailer bill discussions by publicly negotiating against his own side. He probably also didn’t want to cave to pressure from disingenuous actors and instead wanted to tough it out through the election and then deal with the issue in the post-election veto session.

Even so, campaigns ought to be about the exchange of ideas, and the governor’s refusal to engage deserved to be called out.

Besides, this shouldn’t be that difficult. For example, some are making wild claims about the law’s trespassing language.

Hinsdale Village President Tom Cauley recently said, according to the Hinsdale Patch, “I guarantee you that we’re going to find ourselves with people just camped out in parks, and we cannot ask them to leave. They may be in your backyard or in your shed living there.”

Nonsense.

The Illinois Supreme Court’s Implementation Task Force has officially advised law enforcement they “do have discretion to remove the person from the location of the alleged criminal activity, and then cite and release the person from another location.” Repeated refusals to comply could then easily be interpreted as being a threat, which would allow an arrest.

It just seems to me that tightening up the law’s language to fully reflect the task force’s guidance and resulting inference about arrests would be a no-brainer response to the question about changes he wants to make.

The list of forcible felonies that trigger provisions to hold people without bail could and should also be expanded, which even some proponents are saying behind the scenes.

And so, not long after I challenged Pritzker in my subscriber newsletter to step up, he did finally tell reporters on Friday he thought former prosecutor and now-state Sen. Scott Bennett’s, D-Champaign, proposed changes were worth a look but stopped short of endorsing any specifics in the Downstate Democrat’s bill.

Baby steps, I guess.

*** UPDATE *** Pritzker was asked again on KMOV what he’d like to see changed

Some of the Republicans and the State’s Attorneys are misinforming people, I think for political reasons. And as a result I think we need to clarify in the law so that those State’s Attorneys don’t let people out of jail. That in fact, they should be kept in jail. And that there are no such things as non-detainable offenses. That’s just not a thing. It’s not accurate to say that it is in the SAFE-T Act. It’s not. But I think we can clarify it more so that the State’s Attorneys aren’t using this as a political ploy, and instead it’s just plain English for people to understand.

  23 Comments      


Live coverage

Tuesday, Oct 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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