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New WGN TV poll has Irvin leading Bailey by just 4 points

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Here we go…

* Story

A new WGN-TV/The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey of likely GOP primary voters shows Irvin leading the field with 24.1% support, followed by Bailey with 19.8%. […]

The gubernatorial primary also has an education divide: Irvin leads Bailey among those polled with college or postgraduate degrees 30% to 17%. Bailey leads Irvin among those without a college degree 23% to 18%. […]

Forty percent of Republican primary voters say abortion should be legal only in cases of rape, incest and when the woman’s life is endangered. Eighteen percent say it should be illegal in all cases and 15% say it should be legal up to 20 weeks. Another 15% say legal in all cases and 13% say legal up to six weeks of pregnancy.

Spend that kind of money and only leading in a reputable poll by 4 points? Not great.

* More at the link, but here’s something…


Not great for Rodney Davis, and Irvin better hope Trump doesn’t go with Bailey.

* More…



Crime doesn’t poll as high as one would think.

* The US Senate primary is wide open…


* Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Illinois poll of Republican primary voters was conducted May 6-8, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of somewhat and very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk.

…Adding… Bailey campaign…

This polling confirms what most Illinoisans have known for months; this primary election is a two-person race for the heart and soul of our Republican Party. The choice is clear between a conservative Republican like Darren Bailey and a career Democrat like Irvin. Darren Bailey has stood up for working families and taxpayers from the beginning, and Richard Irvin is a Pritzker-hugging, basement hiding puppet of the political elites who is afraid to debate Darren Bailey. Our grassroots movement will continue to roll as our campaign begins to punch back and set the record straight. We’re ready for the fight. Darren Bailey will win this primary and defeat Pritzker in November.

…Adding… Irvin campaign…

JB Pritzker and his allies are funding Darren Bailey’s campaign because they know that Richard Irvin is Pritzker’s greatest threat in November.

  72 Comments      


Campaign notebook

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tom Demmer and Shannon Teresi…

It’s no secret this year’s budget is filled with election year gimmicks, including some blatant attempts to buy votes with tax rebates featuring the names of statewide elected officials. Today, Treasurer candidate Tom Demmer and Comptroller candidate Shannon Teresi are calling on Michael Frerichs and Susana Mendoza to display they are opposed to the corrupt practice of campaigning on taxpayer dollars by keeping their names off of these checks and any other communications or promotional materials associated with this election-year gimmick.

State checks are signed by the comptroller and treasurer. Not sure how they could keep their names off of them.

* CD6 GOP primary candidate brings the (un)usual suspects together…


* Meanwhile, Gary Rabine finally issued a statement today (Wednesday) about Richard Irvin’s Monday press conference…

This is what a train wreck looks like. $45 million can’t paper over a bad candidate who would be a horrible Governor. Republicans – don’t be fooled by Fake-Republican-Governor-Candidate, Richard Irvin. I’m the only candidate in this race with the experience to turn this state around. I am the common sense candidate who can’t be bought.”

Rabine’s video is here.

* Speaking of which

During an unrelated bill signing event at the Peoria Civic Center on Tuesday, the governor said Irvin should be able to answer questions directly.

“It’s very important to answer questions, especially if you’re going to put yourself forward to the public and ask them to trust you and believe in you,” he said. “They’ve gotta know where you stand on the issues.” […]

Pritzker didn’t directly answer Irvin’s allegations about his management of the veterans home crisis, but the governor claimed it’s hypocritical for Republicans to criticize him for his handling of the crisis, even as they pushed back against the COVID mitigations his administration imposed.

“We were trying to keep people healthy and safe in the worst moments of this worldwide pandemic, deadly pandemic. And it was necessary for us to ask people to do the right thing. The people at that press conference, all of the people fought the mitigations, including the gentleman you’re talking about,” he said, referring to the Aurora mayor.

Um, Mayor Irvin publicly supported the mitigations and even threatened to crack down on his local violators, even though he’s running away from that stance as fast as he can right now.

* Back to the far right

A suburban Republican congressional candidate has distanced herself from a pro-Christian, conservative political group with which she’d been aligned, saying she disagrees with many of its tenets — especially strict limits on divorce and eliminating court-ordered child support.

Jaime Milton, a Fox River Grove resident running in Illinois’ 14th District, said she reevaluated her association with the Kingdom Conservative Party. […]

She said she strongly disagrees with the Kingdom Conservative Party’s stance that divorce should only be allowed in cases involving adultery or when “an unbelieving spouse” no longer wants to be married. […]

Milton also disagrees with the group’s objection to court-mandated child support, which it calls an “unconstitutional practice” that’s allowed socialism “to permeate our nation.” […]

Milton said she isn’t fond of the party’s disdain for government aid for the poor, either. While the group called it “a pathway to communism,” Milton said she supports “giving people financial assistance to get them on their feet.”

* Politico

Samantha Steele’s team jumped the gun in telling Playbook that she was endorsed by Iris Martinez, the clerk of the Circuit Court of Cook County. Martinez has not endorsed Steele, who is competing against incumbent Michael Cabonargi. In fact, Martinez hasn’t made a decision in the Board of Review race.

* Rockford Register Star

Republican candidate for Illinois governor Darren Bailey made a campaign stop in Rockford Monday, telling a crowd of about 300 supporters that he’s the man to unseat JB Pritzker in November. […]

“The polling and our grassroots (efforts) are proving to us that we are going to win,” Bailey said. “By this fall, when people understand inflation that’s coming our way, when businesses unemployment insurance fees are almost double, when people are being let off of work and they are earning 20% less benefits, when the gas price continues to go up and doesn’t go down, people are going to be waking up and realizing that something’s not right.” […]

Area Republicans in attendance Monday included Winnebago County Sheriff Gary Caruana, County Board Chairman Joe Chiarelli, and state Sen. Dave Syverson. The fundraiser was sponsored by Elevate & Inspire, Awake Illinois, Freedom Illinois, and Freedom Now Initiative.

…Adding… I checked with the reporter who wrote that story and Sen. Bailey did not take news media questions at his Rockford event.

* More…

* State rep candidates square off at forum - Zalewski defends record on abortion rights, Rashid slams ties to Madigan: Rashid mentioned that Zalewski’s father, who he didn’t name, is one of those mentioned in the charges against Madigan as getting a contract with ComEd for little or no work. Rashid described Zalewski’s father as a ghost payroller for ComEd. Zalewski responded by saying that he will not criticize his father. “You’re never going to get me to say a cross word about my dad,” Zalewski said. “I love him dearly. I’ve known the man my entire life.” Zalewski described how his father rose from humble beginnings. “I’m the son of a garbageman,” Zalewski said. “My dad was on the back of a garbage truck. He worked his way up.”

* Billionaire Ken Griffin is Illinois’s biggest political benefactor. But what are his donations doing to democracy?: Beyond that, an examination of Griffin’s political spending shows that he has consistently funded campaigns that distort issues and ignore facts, sometimes appallingly so, playing to voters’ worst instincts and contributing to the growing toxicity of our political life. … But it may be Griffin’s support of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Super PAC backed by House Republican leadership, that has done the most to promote a toxic political culture. Griffin donated $10 million to CLF in the 2020 election cycle, up from $4.5 million in the previous two-year cycle, according to Federal Election Commission records. And he gave $11.5 million last year alone, with the current cycle just getting underway. According to the Guardian, CLF “[uses] inflammatory tactics to paint political opponents as unsafe or untrustworthy” and “has a particular reputation for running what critics see as sometimes race-baiting attack ads.” In 2018 the Guardian included three CLF ads among the five “most bigoted and divisive political ads” of the year. Reviewing a selection of three years of CLF ads, Politifact determined that more than half were “false” or “mostly false.” Just 13 percent were “mostly true” and zero were completely accurate.

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* Uber’s Local Partnership = Stress-Free Travel For Paratransit Riders
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Caption contest!
* Pritzker calls on new CPS president to resign, citing 'antisemitism, misogyny, fringe conspiracy theories' (Resignation reported)
* Happy Halloween!
* Roundup: Madigan corruption trial
* Question of the day
* The word 'voters' is doing a lot of heavy lifting in these 'voter confidence' stories
* Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work
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