* Background is here. Press release…
Sangamon County Circuit Court Judge John M. Madonia has issued a TRO this afternoon following a lawsuit filed by the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association and the Illinois Retail Merchants Association earlier this week related to emergency amendments filed by the Illinois Workers’ Compensation Commission seeking to change substantive provisions under the Workers’ Compensation Act. While the lead plaintiffs on this case are the IMA and IRMA, more than two dozen business groups from every segment of the economy are supporting this effort.
…Adding… I’m told the state has to respond by April 30 and both parties will reconvene on May 4 for potential arguments.
*** UPDATE *** Click here for the TRO.
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* House Republican Leader Jim Durkin…
The new Stay At Home order that includes many recommendations from the House Republican caucus is the first step in moving Illinois forward. Working together and implementing smart policy decisions will increase the safety of Illinois residents and allow our economy to begin opening up in an equitable fashion while still protecting employees and customers. I want Illinoisans to know that the Executive Order is not final, but it is a working document subject to change. While I am pleased with today’s actions, we must do more to restore economic vitality of the state while maintaining the health and safety of our citizens.
* Rep. Darren Bailey…
– State Rep. Darren Bailey filed a lawsuit today (April 23) against Governor J.B. Pritzker for a violation of civil rights.
“My lawsuit asks the court to find that Gov. Pritzker overextended his power by issuing additional ‘stay at home’ orders after his original disaster proclamation, which expired on April 9th, 2020,” said Bailey
(R-Xenia). “Enough is enough. I filed this lawsuit on behalf of myself and my constituents who are ready to go back to work and resume a normal life.”
While special emergency powers were granted to the governor through the Emergency Management Act in the late 1980’s by the Illinois General assembly, the unprecedented power and authority he wields under the current crisis calls for an immediate review and reconsideration of legislative intent.
Complaint. Legal brief.
*** UPDATE 1 *** Senate GOP Leader Bill Brady…
I am pleased this stay-at-home extension contains recommendations submitted by Senate Republicans that will ease some of the onerous restrictions on small businesses, essential health care procedures, and state parks. This will allow residents the opportunity to avail themselves of these activities and services while maintaining the proper social-distancing protocols.
However, one area not included in this extension was a regional, phased-in reopening of our state. Downstate communities, while following the proper social distancing guidelines, are not seeing the same number of cases, but they’re suffering just the same economically.
Thirty days is a long time, and the Governor has said the peak could be reached by the end of this month or early May. He must continue to monitor the data with the hope that we can ease restrictions before May 30 if it is safe to do so. We have to realize COVID-19 is our new normal, and it is time to address how all businesses, essential or otherwise, operate safely.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Jordan Abudayyeh…
At every step of the response to this deadly pandemic, the Governor has followed the guidance of public health experts and used the emergency powers authorized in State law to protect the health and lives of all Illinoisans.
As the experts outlined today, we are now seeing that the stay at home orders and other emergency steps have started to slow the spread of the coronavirus and are making a significant difference.
Now is not the time to stop our work, because we must remember lives are at stake. It is truly unfortunate that a legislator is working against our public health efforts.
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* On to questions for the governor. Remember to pardon all transcription errors. Are you saying that doctors and patients can now start making appointments to do procedures beginning May 1st for such things as MRIs, mammograms, colonoscopies and other potentially life saving measures?…
Dr. Ezike: So yes, we’ve been working very hard to try to come up with very safe ways that we can help these postponed procedures and surgeries, which, after postponing them for too long could actually become more of a harm to the patients, instead of a benefit.
And so we will roll out details in the coming days, but we are trying to make a healthcare, more accessible, these specific surgeries and procedures, and we will be working with our partners, the Illinois Health and Hospital Association to try to find the best media in terms of keeping beds available for COVID patients in case there is the surge, in case there’s any change in what happens with that, and make sure that we won’t undo any of the benefits that we’ve done so far.
* Greg Bishop at the Center Square apparently thinks the governor can unilaterally break the AFSCME contract, or just wanted to ding Pritzker: The state is scheduled to give union workers $261 million in raises. How do you justify those raises to people who are out of work and struggling to file unemployment benefits and pay their daily bills?…
Yeah. So, as you know, these are contracts negotiated after four years of no contracts for those workers, and no raises at all. And so that’s why those contracts are in place now. I was able to negotiate something with them. We certainly keep in close contact, we’re watching the budget very closely. But suffice to say that that’s the reason that those exist. If you look at the four years of no raises and the negotiated raises that were in those contracts, they’re very reasonable for the taxpayers and I think, again, we’re looking at all the constraints of the budget going forward and we’ll continue to make changes to the budget because that’s something tha the February budget that was proposed is no longer a budget that we can ever [garbled] so there are 261 million could be readjusted.
* Are you aware of the results of a study that was put out today that found the COVID-19 has spread through air conditioning systems at a restaurant in China?…
Dr. Ezike: I am not aware of that but I will make sure that my team researches that so that we can be aware of all the current information that’s coming out so thank you for sharing that.
I’m kinda stunned that she didn’t know about that.
* What are your thoughts about the recommendations concerning the letter that Minority Leader Jim Durkin put out today, expressing his desire for you to share the modeling numbers in detail with legislative leaders as well as the public?…
Well I think one of the purposes of today you know, he and one of his colleagues in the House have wanted to see the models, and as I’ve said to them many times, there are multiple models and the modeling doesn’t determine my answers to, you know how we’re going to move forward, but it is instructive for sure. So this is an assistance I think everybody to understand what we’re looking at. But this isn’t even the only thing that I’m looking at so the idea that somehow sharing one model with people is going to somehow instruct them about what next moves we’re going to make, I think is a fallacy.
* You’ve been accused by some including some Illinois Republican lawmakers of operating in a bubble, would you commit to holding a virtual town hall to hear directly from Illinois residents about the economic problems that they are facing?…
Well the accusation that I’m operating in a bubble is ridiculous.
First of all, I think everybody on my staff and the Republican members of the House and Senate and the leaders themselves know that I make frequent calls every day to them, to many of their constituents, to mayors, [and] Brad Cole knows there are quite a number of mayors all across the state that I’ve reached out to. I’ve tried to make myself accessible in every way that I can we’re also in a stay at home order. I’m trying hard to reach out as we all are using zoom and other methods of communication with people, and I’ll continue to do that for as long as we’re in this situation.
* WIND’s Amy Jacobson says that, preface that by saying this, Mitch McConnell has said he won’t provide federal bailout funds for state pension funds but he would support a provision to allow states to file for bankruptcy. You have said you don’t want such a such a provision and wouldn’t use it. If a reorganization was good enough for Puerto Rico, with less debt per capita than Illinois, why isn’t it good enough for Illinois? And if it’s not good enough for Illinois, what options would you necessarily consider absent a federal bailout?…
So, I would like to say that Amy clearly doesn’t understand what happens when an organization goes through a bankruptcy and out the other side.
The cost of borrowing, the cost of doing business goes way up much beyond where we are now. We would be paying interest at usurious rates. Our state would be in a world of hurt, people wouldn’t want to do business in fact with a state that’s gone through bankruptcy with the idea that, well if you’ve gone through it once you might go through it again.
And the fact is states are not allowed to declare bankruptcy, and it’s a good thing.
What we do need to do is make sure that we do as I was doing before we got to this crisis, which is to balance our budget on a regular basis to begin to build surpluses so that we can pay down existing bills, that were there before I came into office to make sure that we’re continuing the services that people need in the state, while also being fiscally responsible.
* Cisco Cotto says there are several downstate counties that are being devastated economically, even though they have very few infections. Why not allow those areas to reopen across the board?…
Well, as you can see from some of the changes that we made in the executive order, I listened to many people downstate and in areas where there were let the lower infection rates, lower hospitalizations, so that we could make it more accessible for them to do certain kinds of things that we thought will not spread the infection, but will allow areas that have a different set of characteristics than let’s say an area of downtown Chicago. To be able to operate in a different fashion so that’s that’s built in I talked about some of those things in my remarks.
* A study finds that 88% of COVID-19 patients who are on ventilators in New York, passed away. Do you know what the percentage is here in Illinois?…
Dr. Ezike: I have been following more national and international data, I don’t have Illinois specific data. But across the board we have seen rates of 50 to 80% mortality on events, and we have learned I know from talking to ICU and pulmonary specialists that people are trying different more innovative ways to try to increase the oxygenation in patients who are suffering respiratory distress and that involves putting people on their stomach and rotating them in the different positions to try to get oxygen to different parts of the lungs. So we are seeing that here.
* How much testing do we need in Illinois in order to go about normal life before a vaccine is widely available? What’s the figure in terms of tests per capita? Have we hit a ceiling in our ability to test in the nation or in Illinois because of a lack of testing materials available? What about the spread of the disease in Illinois, do we not know yet?…
>Let me start by answering the question about how many tests, do we need per capita, what’s the right number. It’s very difficult to say and the reason that you know when you talk to the experts around the country, about this, they will give you different answers.
And it is certainly different in different industries, obviously, what you’d like to do in certain industries like the nursing home industry is you would like to be able to test every person, every day on a rapid test basis. So add all of that up and that’s some number of tests that you start with, and that’s just nursing homes. We want to do that in each setting in where you’ve got somebody who has a comorbidity that might put them at risk. So that’s why nobody’s really come up with quite the exact number.
What I can tell you is, as you know, I set an initial goal here for Illinois, because remember when I set the goal we were only in the few thousands range of testing. I set an initial goal of let’s get to 10,000 that seemed like a pretty big number. And it still is, we aren’t there yet, but we’re getting closer. And then the question I’m certainly thinking about this too. What’s the next goal. We’re not going to be able to immediately go from 10,000 to 250,000.
So what’s the next goal what’s possible? And how would we use the tests if we could come up with a number that’s possible in the near future over the next let’s say the two months? Hence, how would you use those tests right if you came up with that number?
So that’s how we’re operating now because the truth is, even if you set a goal of hundreds of thousands of tests a day, the testing materials don’t exist today because the market is so strained. And so it’s difficult to try to shoot for the moon. But I do think setting real goals that are a little bit slightly out of range that you can shoot for and work really hard to make that those are the kinds of goals I like to set.
* Why is Cook County seeing a different range of deaths and cases than other cities with similar demographics? What factors are you seeing to suggest why the county is not recovering as quickly as other similar counties?…
Dr. Ezike: This virus is preying on people who are older, is preying on people with underlying conditions. So there’s definitely a bias towards communities, or areas where there are older people or more infirmed people.
It’s one of the reasons that we have seen that health disparities across our ethnic groups with the black community bearing a higher burden of this, of this disease in terms of the mortality. Again, the disparities of health in terms of the health of communities existed before COVID was here. Again we’ve talked about many of the reasons for that socio-economic racism. Many, you know, loss of opportunities but if you had that to start with and then you place COVID on top of that, then you will have a more serious burden of the disease on those on those communities.
* How will the face covering requirement be enforced, and with the stay at home order now in place for over a month outside of congregate settings have you identified where community transmission is continuing to happen?…
Face coverings, you know, the same way that everything else has been enforced. It’s certainly done at the local level. We’re not encouraging police officers to stop people and arrest them, take drastic action. We are encouraging certainly everybody to encourage everybody else that they know but including the police or other officials to it, you know, people should wear a mask and they should be reminded if they’re not wearing a mask that they’re not. And private establishments do need to require that people who enter their establishment wear a mask. […]
Dr. Ezike: We have community transition in in all parts of our state. I think in terms of documented cases. We’re at 96 counties of the 102 and so we know that the majority of people who are ELS cannot tell you exactly where it came from. So there’s widespread community transmission.
Pritzker: You could say that the rates are higher in some areas and others but that’s not to say that we don’t have it throughout the state. And let me just remind you that that you need to do more testing everywhere in the country to do central surveillance which is
* What will the state do to help people unable to pay their rent or mortgages, money won’t be able to pay at the end of forbearance periods, since they’ve gone without income?…
We’ve been encouraging the forbearance as much as possible. We’ve obviously stopped sheriffs from evicting people we’ve talked to mortgage companies to get them to provide forbearance. Look, we’re all hopeful that we’re able to begin to put our economy back together. We hope that the forbearance period that people will be able to take advantage of will be a short enough period, but fully covered so that when people are able to go back to work, they’ll be able to to afford to pay their bills
* You’re allowing outdoor recreation, why not indoor pools which are chlorinated or gyms under correct spacing and capacity limits? Isn’t that a health necessity for some people?…
Dr. Ezike: IDPH does regulate pools and if we want to get into the, the different microbes that exists within pools, different swimming pools, we can do that. But definitely the practice of obviously being in a swimming pool, unfortunately we do know this here’s some fecal shedding coronavirus … And so, as well as associated with pools, you would have locker rooms with which people would need to change. So you would have more people congregated in the same setting. So for a myriad of reasons. That wouldn’t be conducive to promoting social distancing and decreasing community spread.
* Will you release the raw data for these models, when and where can we access it?…
I just want to be clear with everybody, we don’t own these models, these models belong to the experts who you’ve heard from and the others who’ve been part of our consultative group. And so I would suggest, I will just remind everybody that they have spoken with the press before, they’ve been quoted about what the work that they do and. And I think that that will continue and so again it’s up to them though these are models that are owned and controlled by the people who created them.
* How do we police boating on Lake Michigan?…
I can’t you know they’re just the same way. Look, we’re encouraging everybody to do the right thing. I think the other, we’re not going to be sending police out to look at every boat and count people that are on the boat. But I think people know what the right thing to do is, they’re being told what the right thing to do is and if it needs ultimately to be enforced, then we may need to go that direction by using law enforcement, but that is not currently what we’re looking for.
* Many retailers already fill online orders and do curbside business. How will this benefit them beyond what they’re already doing and sacrificing?
Well, if they’re not an essential business they will not have been doing this or should not have been doing this, but it is now allowed for retail businesses.
* We’ve had a record number of new cases yesterday, is this simply a result of more testing or is the virus continuing to spread if it’s still spreading do we know where and why?…
Dr. Ezike: I will say that the increased number of cases have to be taken in context with what the denominator is and so as you’ve heard Governor Pritzker say we’re the last two days we’ve tested over 9000 people for the first time in this state and so when you look at the the numerator, the number of positive cases over the denominator, all the people that were tested, we actually are still running about the same percentage of positivity but obviously if you test more people, you will get more positives, again, that is understood. But I think we’re still in the 20-21% positive rate. So it’s still consistent it’s just a matter of more people tested.
She explained that yesterday, by the way.
* Jake Griffin at The Daily Herald: Many people in rural parts of the state wants to quarantine Chicago and the suburbs and reopen parts of downstate Illinois that aren’t seeing infection rates like the urban areas. Why has the state not done that? [I swear I did not make that up.]…
I, I’m not sure how to answer that except that this virus knows no boundaries, folks. No one is immune from this virus no matter where you live. And we are trying to take into account the differences between population density in one area of the state versus another and you’re seeing that in the executive order, the modifications to the executive order that we put out today.
* Was the extension of the stay at home order to May 30 taken into account when you gave your updated budget and revenue figures for fiscal year 2020 and 2021 last week? If not, given large parts of the economy will still be closed for four more weeks, do you expect revenue coming into the state this and next year to be even lower than the drop you projected last week?…
There are unknowns every single day. And so, no I didn’t know a week or two or three ago what exactly we would be doing in the month of May, nor do I know honestly, what’s going to happen tomorrow as a result of this virus.
But what I can tell you is that we have taken into account the fact that there is a significant effect on the state of Illinois economy and therefore on the collection of tax revenue for the state. And so we have projected that this would be a prolonged recession, not, multi years, but a reasonably long one. And so that is factored into the numbers that we put forward. And we’ll continue to evaluate that as we’re working with the legislature on putting our budget together.
* Can you explain specifically what kind of economic relief you’ve asked for from the federal government?…
Well, you know, I have been involved in asking for relief for hospitalsm for unemployment, for those who are unemployed, making sure that we provide funding for our local governments.
One of the challenges of the last [bill] was that it set a threshold at 500,000 people. So if you were in a city or a town or county that had less than 500,000 people, you weren’t benefiting from at least from that provision of the CARES Act. And so that’s one of the things that I’ve talked about smaller cities and towns and counties should be able to benefit too and of course the states ahave undergone significant pain in their budgets and it’s not just the state of Illinois, every state in the United States. I was on a call with the National Governors Association members, all the governors or at least as many as were on I think there were 40, as well as numerous other direct calls that I’ve made everybody, Republican and Democrat, there 24 states led by Democrats 26 states led by Republicans, every one of the states is having the challenges that we’re having and needs help from the federal realm. So I talked to federal representatives, or have my team talking to federal representatives all the time. And I hope that that each of the provisions that we’ve talked about, small businesses need more relief. There’s no doubt about it. And so, small businesses, hospitals, you know, all of these things have taken into account lobbying for to our federal representatives.
* Would you be willing to meet with [the president] at the White House to help mend fences and get your point across directly?…
Of course. I’ve been on the phone with the White House on frequent occasions. I’ve spoken with the President and the Vice President all during this crisis, even when the President has been critical of me.
I’m somebody who will do anything to work for the people of the state of Illinois, anything to help us get back on our feet, and to get past this crisis and in a way that preserves our working families and helps them.
So, yeah, of course I mean I would do any of those things. The President does not, you know, I have been to the White House and met with the president at the White House on a couple of occasions now, during the course of my governorship and of course I would go back and Governor Pence, sorry, Vice President Pence who was a governor of a neighboring state Indiana, has been very communicative with me and I know that he would also have a meeting with me if I asked for one. So yeah. Absolutely.
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* From the governor’s media briefing today. Please pardon all transcription errors…
To start, let me explain a bit about the role of modeling in my decision making, since the outbreak of COVID-19. I’ve taken into consideration a variety of models from researchers all across the world. There are often widely different projections from those about the state of Illinois. Some of this disparity is the result of methodological differences, but much of it also is due to data access and quality. The earliest coronavirus models that we had in the United States had to rely upon data from other countries applied to our national landscape, and certainly there was a real benefit in those very early days of getting educated estimates of what the virus’s effect on Illinois would look like regardless of where that early data came from. But the picture that gets painted by modeling gets better when it’s based off of what’s actually happening on the ground in Illinois data that can only be gathered with the passage of time.
We now have what we didn’t have two months ago, an understanding of what COVID-19 cases, deaths hospitalizations ventilator and ICU usage look like every day in Illinois. Even so, two months is not a lot of time in the world of modeling.
That’s important because the very essence of a model is that it gets smarter over time. How well you consistently test past predictions against current reality and then adjust projections accordingly. Or to put it simply, the more facts that you have, like exactly how many people went into the hospital with COVID-19 on a certain date, the better your ability to predict outcomes on any later date.
Notice I say it becomes better, because it never is exact. There is no crystal ball available to us. There are only estimates. Illinois is the proud home to some of the finest researchers and research institutions in the world, and still it is always the case that different modeling teams come to different conclusions.
So I undertook a project to give me the best possible approximations of future COVID-19 illnesses in Illinois, that would then allow me to make decisions about what resources we would need to keep Illinoisans alive, and recovering. And what urgency would be required in decisions about whether to initiate new mitigation strategies or extend existing ones, like the stay at home order. I have known from the start that even the best projections are going to have a great deal of variance. But knowing the boundaries of that variance informs my decision making. So we convened top researchers from the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, the Chicago and Illinois Department of Public Health Northwestern School of Medicine. The University of Chicago. And we also brought in outside consulting groups. They worked as a cohort, under civis analytics, using the most comprehensive data available for the entire state of Illinois. Suffice to say the findings we’re discussing today about the state of Illinois were put together by some of the best scientists doctors researchers from some of those great institutions that I just mentioned.
I want to look first at the projected fatalities. As you can see from the graphs that are next to me, Illinois is now looking at a peak, or plateau of deaths per day. Somewhere between late April and early May.
Why a range instead of an exact date? Well, everyone wants to look at the median line as a guide, that nice clear line that cuts through the big shaded section on all the models circulating online.
But reality is not quite so simple. Look at the actual deaths from the past few weeks on the graph next to me and look at the median projections going forward. Reality swings up and down, sometimes drastically affect that can’t be captured with a simple median line. What we have to consider is the whole shaded area that shaded area shows the range that researchers are 95% confident that things will land. That’s a shaded area you would see in differing shapes on every model.
To be clear, the fact that the variance is large doesn’t make a model less useful, but it does, nevertheless, make it clear that it is only a tool to be used.
I worry that people think the model is some miraculously accurate view into the future that is going to tell us exactly what we need to do and when it’s not. It won’t. I guarantee that the model that we’re sharing today will change in the coming days as projected numbers about those days are replaced with actual numbers.
A model is an imperfect tool that we use to add context to the actual numbers that we can chart every day. Cases, fatalities ,hospitalizations, positive test results, ventilator and ICU usage.
I also want to explain a bit about this change in our estimated peak cases. The concept of flattening the curve, only just entered our common vocabulary in the last few months, and it’s really crucial to understand our approach.
Weeks ago, many models, both those produced by our in state experts and those from around the nation, predicted an early or mid April peak for Illinois. But as the weeks have progressed those models have come to look quite different. That’s not because those models were bad models. Instead it’s because their inputs got better as time went on, real time data came in, and importantly Illinoisans protected each other by staying home.
Human behavior is exceptionally difficult to measure and even harder to predict. So that last part about staying home has made all the difference in our progress. Also, and this is very important, the most sensible and responsible use of a model in a public health crisis, like this one, is to pay close attention to the worst case scenario. In other words, when building hospital beds, purchasing and acquiring PPE and ventilators and making decisions about mitigation efforts, public officials should assume that the worst end of the model range could happen, and take that into account in planning.
…Pushing out that peak is a natural consequence and the best indicator that we are flattening the curve. That’s what you’re aiming to do, slow down the rate of transmission, which leads to a slower rate of increase over a longer period of time. Hence, a later, and lower peak, pushing the peak further down the line might not sound like good news but I promise you, it saves lives.
And make no mistake, Illinois has saved lives by staying home and social distancing we have kept our infection and death rates for the month of March and April, thousands below the rates projected.
Had we not implemented those mitigation strategies, the good people of this state have allowed our healthcare professionals, the ability to treat patients to the best of their ability without having to make dark choices, very real choices that doctors in other countries face about who lives and who dies. That is a historic and heroic act carried out by all of you.
Your efforts to protect your families, protect your communities, protect each other, have also given us another tool. And that’s time, time to build up our hospital capacity in terms of beds ventilators and healthcare workers, time to prepare for the kind of surge, that could occur. Anytime as a result of a virus from which no one is immune and capacity, we built in August of 2019. Back in a world that had never heard of COVID-19, Illinois had an average of about 26,000 total hospital beds available.
As of today, our total bed count in existing hospitals is more than 31,000. Back in August we had about 2000 ventilators, that number is now more than 3200 ventilators, and we’re building our healthcare workforce too. There are now 5000 out of state and former medical professionals who have applied for temporary licenses to join Illinois fight against COVID-19. We’ve built up our hospital capacity significantly.
But if we let up now, we would have nowhere near the kind of hospital capacity that we would need the projections are clear. If we lifted the stay at home order tomorrow, we would see our deaths per day shoot into the thousands. By the end of May, and that would last well into the summer, our hospitals would be full and very sick people would have nowhere to go. People who otherwise might have won their fight against COVID would die because we wouldn’t be able to help them through.
No amount of political pressure would ever make me allow such a scenario for our state, our beloved state of Illinois.
* And now the rationale for the new order…
So, the numbers present us with only one choice. Next week, I intend to sign an extension of our stay at home order with some modifications through Saturday, May 30.
To everyone listening: We are in possibly the most difficult parts of this journey. I know how badly we all want our normal lives back. Believe me, if I could make that happen right now, I would.
But this is the part where we have to dig in. And we have to understand that the sacrifices that we’ve made as a state to avoid a worst case scenario, are working. And we need to keep going a little while longer. to finish the job.
* More info…
On a more optimistic note, my team and I are finalizing the next step principles for safely moving toward reopening in phases. We are making progress building out testing and launching our contact tracing initiative. So that is so important to us that over time we will be able to realize the new normal.
We’ll be sharing more on that in the days and weeks ahead. On another optimistic note, May will look somewhat different than March and April.
He then explained the new order. Click here for more details.
* Looking forward…
I know that even with these changes, this stay at home order leaves many restrictions in place. And in the coming weeks as we get to the point of working our way down to the other side of the peak, as we move forward, there will be more to do to get people back to work and open up even more.
Understand that these are not choices that are made arbitrarily. These changes are what the data says that we can offer the people of Illinois, without risking so much viral transmission, that our hospitals will again become or potentially become overrun.
* Warning…
That said, if we start to see crowds and people violating the order or breaking the rules, I will need to bring back these restrictions. I’m hopeful that we will not need to do that.
* Reasoning with people…
Folks, this is a battle that you never asked to fight, I know that. I also know that our doctors and our nurses and our healthcare professionals, never asked to lead us through a pandemic. Our essential workers never asked to man the frontlines of society, our small businesses never asked to sacrifice their bottom line to an invisible enemy.
I see your pain. And I am so, so very sorry for it. But for every person who wants to go to dinner or hang out with friends in a park or swing open the sole their salon doors, there is a family mourning the death of someone they love. There is a parent, a child, a friend who would give anything to have their greatest strain be the difficulties of staying home, and not the unimaginable pain of a life loss too soon.
I’m not in the business of comparing suffering in a pandemic. Everyone is allowed to hurt, but we have the opportunity to prevent the pain of loss from touching the lives of thousands, we have the opportunity to follow the leadership of the countless nonprofits and community leaders and families across Illinois, who have demonstrated their courage and their empathy and their willingness to help, Illinois has the best people in the world. And I’ve said all along that I will fight like hell for you.
I’m asking you to hold on for just a little while longer. To help make sure that we all see through to the other side of this struggle. One day I pray that this virus will be a memory. But the strength that we found together will be something that we carry with us forever.
* Professor Nigel Goldenfeld of UIUC…
So let me tell you a little bit about modeling, but in my own language. Modeling an epidemic is rather like modeling the trajectory of a rocket. When you don’t know where it started from, in what direction it was pointing and how much fuel is onboard the rocket and you can’t even see the rocket, modeling an epidemic is not rocket science. It’s harder.
* Prof. Sergie Maslov of UIUC…
The success of social distancing is measured by what did not happen. Our calculations show that the number of deaths would have been about 20 times as high as they are today.
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1,826 new cases, 123 additional deaths
Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,826 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 123 additional deaths.
Boone County: 1 male 80s
Champaign County: 1 male 90s
Cook County: 1 male 20s, 1 male 30s, 2 females 40s, 1 male 40s, 3 females 50s, 3 males 50s, 3 females 60s, 7 males 60s, 9 females 70s, 13 males 70s, 8 females 80s, 8 males 80s, 10 females 90s, 2 males 90s
DuPage County: 1 male 60s, 4 females 70s, 3 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 3 males 80s, 2 females 90s
Fayette County: 1 female 90s
Jackson County: 1 female 70s
Kane County: 1 male 70s, 1 male 90s
Kankakee County: 1 female 80s, 4 males 80s
Kendall County: 1 male 70s
Lake County: 1 male 60s, 2 females 70s, 3 males 70s, 2 females 80s, 2 males 80s, 1 male 100+
McHenry County: 1 female 40s, 1 male 40s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 80s
Sangamon County: 1male 70s
Will County: 1 male 50s, 1 male 60s, 2 females 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s, 2 males 90s
Winnebago County: 1 female 60s, 1 male 80s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 36,934 cases, including 1,688 deaths, in 96 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years.
…Adding… From Dr. Ezike…
Right now statewide medical surgical bed availability remains relatively flat, similar to ICU Bed Availability.
Although use has been increasing slowly, capacity has also been increasing, thereby maintaining relatively stable levels.
As of yesterday, 4877 individuals were reported to be hospitalized with COVID-19, of those 1268 patients were in the ICU and 766 patients were on ventilators.
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Pritzker issues modified stay at home order
Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release [Pritzker said today the order will be formally issued next week and last through the end of May]…
Based on data from scientists and health experts and after consulting with stakeholders across the state, Governor JB Pritzker announced that he will sign a modified version of the state’s stay at home order that will go into effect on May 1 to continue the life-saving progress made over the last month while also allowing residents additional in the safest way possible.
In conjunction with today’s announcement, the Governor released modeling today put together by top academic institutions and researchers in Illinois that predicts the course of coronavirus in the state over the coming months. On our current trajectory, the state is projected to see a peak or plateau of deaths per day between late April and early May, but if the stay at home order were lifted this week, the model anticipates a second wave of the outbreak in Illinois starting in May, which would claim tens of thousands of lives and greatly exceed the state’s hospital capacity.
“Make no mistake, Illinois has saved lives. By staying home and social distancing, we have kept our infection and death rates for the months of March and April thousands below the rates projected had we not implemented these mitigation strategies,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “I know how badly we all want our normal lives back. But this is the part where we have to dig in and understand that the sacrifices we’ve made as a state to avoid a worst-case scenario are working — and we need to keep going a little while longer to finish the job.”
MODIFIED STAY AT HOME ORDER
Lifting mitigation measures is only possible with widespread availability and access to COVID-19 testing, tracing and treatment. The data show that if the state were to lift mitigations abruptly this week, this would result in a second wave of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.
After consulting with doctors, scientists and experts in Illinois and across the world, the Governor has announced he will sign a modified version of the state’s stay at home order that will go into effect on May 1 and extend through the end of the month. The modified order will strengthen the state’s social distancing requirements while allowing residents additional flexibility and provide measured relief to non-essential businesses in the safest way possible.
The new executive order will include the following modifications effective May 1:
OUTDOOR RECREATION: State parks will begin a phased re-opening under guidance from the Department of Natural Resources. Fishing and boating in groups of no more than two people will be permitted. A list of parks that will be open on May 1 and additional guidelines can be found on the Illinois Department of Natural Resources website HERE . Golf will be permitted under strict safety guidelines provided by the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) and when ensuring that social distancing is followed.
NEW ESSENTIAL BUSINESSES: Greenhouses, garden centers and nurseries may re-open as essential businesses. These stores must follow social distancing requirements and must require that employees and customers wear a face covering. Animal grooming services may also re-open.
NON-ESSENTIAL RETAIL: Retail stores not designated as non-essential businesses and operations may re-open to fulfill telephone and online orders through pick-up outside the store and delivery.
FACE COVERINGS: Beginning on May 1, individuals will be required to wear a face-covering or a mask when in a public place where they can’t maintain a six-foot social distance. Face-coverings will be required in public indoor spaces, such as stores. This new requirement applies to all individuals over the age of two who are able to medically tolerate a face-covering or a mask.
ESSENTIAL BUSINESSES AND MANUFACTURING: Essential businesses and manufacturers will be required to provide face-coverings to all employees who are not able to maintain six-feet of social distancing, as well as follow new requirements that maximize social distancing and prioritize the well-being of employees and customers. This will include occupancy limits for essential businesses and precautions such as staggering shifts and operating only essential lines for manufacturers.
SCHOOLS: Educational institutions may allow and establish procedures for pick-up of necessary supplies or student belongings. Dormitory move-outs must follow public health guidelines, including social distancing.
The Illinois Department of Public Health will also be issuing guidance to surgi-centers and hospitals to allow for certain elective surgeries for non-life-threatening conditions, starting on May 1. Facilities will need to meet specific criteria, including proper PPE, ensuring enough overall space for COVID-19 patients remains available, and testing of elective surgery patients to ensure COVID-19 negative status.
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Calm down, please
Thursday, Apr 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he does this because he’s been hinting at it for at least a week, but this story includes a lot of pure speculation…
Gov. J.B. Pritzker is expected to extend Illinois’ stay-at-home order Thursday, sources tell NBC 5.
With just one week left until the current April 30 deadline, Pritzker is poised to reveal an extension during his 2:30 p.m. coronavirus press briefing.
Though it’s not clear how long he will extend the order for, state law allows a governor to sign an executive order for 30 days. Sources believe the order could be extended through May 30.
The order is expected to include a new requirement that residents cover their faces in public spaces where social distancing is difficult.
Pritzker could also lift some restrictions on the order. Lawmakers and businesses have asked Pritzker to open state parks and golf courses and allow elective surgeries.
The press conference starts in just a couple of hours. We’ll know then.
* Meanwhile, a single alderman introduces an ordinance and the headline reads “Facial coverings would be required in many public settings in Chicago under City Council plan.” C’mon…
Lincoln Park Ald. Michele Smith, 43rd, introduced her ordinance Wednesday and said she’ll push for a quick hearing. “If we really want to get this behind us, everyone has to wear a mask in public,” Smith said. “The real impediment to that happening is social acceptance, so this ordinance would get everyone on the same page by making it a requirement.” […]
Asked Wednesday about whether she is generally considering requiring face coverings, Mayor Lori Lightfoot said it’s being discussed, but implementing such rules would be hard.
“The challenge is making sure every member of the public has the same accessibility to some kind of face covering,” she said. “And we know, from the disparities in our city, that that is not so. What is possible in Lincoln Park is not the same as what’s possible in Austin or Englewood or Roseland. So we have to have a policy that is consistent with the realities of people’s lives. And while we are going to continue to encourage people to wear masks in congregate settings, mandating that without giving people the tools to actually comply — and we’re not going to lock people up because they aren’t wearing masks in public. So, these are nuanced issues.”
…Adding… Email…
Hey Rich,
Point of clarification, in response to ‘Meanwhile, a single alderman introduces an ordinance and the headline reads “Facial coverings would be required in many public settings in Chicago under City Council plan.”’
41 out of the 50 aldermen signed on to cosponsor this ordinance. We were working the phones all weekend.
(of course, it may be a non-issue as of a couple hours ago…)
Thank you for keeping us up to speed on the state stuff - it’s been very helpful. I mean that with zero percent snark.
* For the most up-to-date information on COVID-19 resources, please visit and subscribe at - for mobile updates, text COVID19 to 78015 or email: coronavirus@chicago.gov. *
Erik Wallenius
Chief of Staff
Alderman Michele Smith
* And we don’t even know what will be in the next stay at home order, so this is a silly headline…
McHenry drive-in theater owner making plans to reopen May 1. Extension of stay-at-home order would nix that idea.
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* WaPo…
More than 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to the Labor Department, a signal that the tidal wave of job losses continues to grow during the coronavirus pandemic.
It’s the fifth-straight week that job losses were measured in the millions. From March 15 to April 18, 26.5 million have probably been laid off or furloughed. The number of jobs lost in that brief span effectively erased all jobs created after the 2008 financial crisis. Jobless figures on this scale haven’t been seen since the Great Depression.
The new weekly total comes on top of 22 million Americans who had sought benefits in previous weeks, a volume that has overwhelmed state systems for processing unemployment claims. Economists estimate that the national unemployment rate sits between 15 and 20 percent, much higher than it was during the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009. The unemployment rate at the peak of the Great Depression was about 25 percent.
The new weekly jobless claims figure came around economist predictions, which were expected “to be staggering, but not growing, which is a small mercy,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter. For comparison, 5.2 million people filed unemployment claims for the week ending April 11.
*** UPDATE *** Slowing down a bit, but still a ton of applications…
While weekly numbers keep decreasing, Illinois residents continue to file for unemployment benefits at record-high numbers due to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.
Illinois residents filed 102,736 claims for unemployment benefits last week, according to preliminary numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor. That’s an about 27% decrease from the revised total of 141,160 for the week ending April 11, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security numbers on April 16.
Illinois received more than 757,000 initial unemployment claims from March 1 to April 18, according to state data. That’s more than the total number of initial claims for all of 2019 – which was more than 476,000 – and more than four times the amount of claims filed in the first two months of the 2008 Great Recession, per the state data.
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[This post’s timestamp has been altered to allow for Thursday visibility.]
* The governor announced two new drive-through testing locations today…
As you know, more widespread testing is a key goal for combating COVID-19. It’s a vital feature of our long term path to building a new normal. Along that path we need to make testing more available and convenient to more people. So I’m pleased to announce two additional state run drive through testing sites, both of which are available to anyone who has COVID like symptoms and wants to test, even without a doctor’s order.
Today in Aurora, we opened a new drive thru at the Chicago Premium Outlets outdoor shopping mall, located at 1650 Premium outlet Boulevard in Aurora, that location can take up to 600 specimens per day.
And starting on Friday in Rockford, we will open a drive thru location at the University of Illinois College of Medicine Rockford, the address there is 1601 Parkview Avenue, and that location will be able to take 500 specimens, a day when fully ramped up between these two new sites, and our three existing sites in Markham, Bloomington, and in Harwood Heights, our five drive-throughs can run up to 2900 tests per day when the Rockford test site is fully up and running.
As always, please pardon all transcription errors.
* PPE…
We’ve now sent out more than 15 million items, including 7.7 million surgical masks, nearly 1.7 million N95 masks, over 30,000 gowns, over 6.4 million gloves and over 350,000 face shields to locations all across the state of Illinois.
We also have outstanding orders due to arrive in the coming days and weeks with an additional 25.5 million NK and N95 masks [I’m not quite sure of that bit because I wasn’t paying attention and was relying on the transcription], 25 million surgical and general medical masks, 8.4 million gowns and coveralls, 14 million gloves and 7.5 million face shields and goggles.
* Dr. Ezike…
At the end of yesterday, we had 4665 individuals in Illinois who were hospitalized with COVID-19, of those 1220 were in the ICU and 747 of those ICU patients were on ventilators.
* On to questions for the governor. Got a long list of questions from colleagues here but wanted to begin with one of my own. The argument has been made regarding the stay at home order that the intention or the goal was, was not to eliminate COVID-19 by April 30, that was never going to happen, but to buy time for the health care capacity to increase for the ICU beds to increase to get the ventilators and the PPE to get the alternate care facilities up and running, including McCormick Place and credit to the administration, a lot of that has been accomplished in a short amount of time. So the argument has been made that, because the healthcare capacity is in a much better place right now. and because of the curve and the peak may be coming later and lower than initially projected why not open things up after April 30 just in a slightly more robust way than you’d so far indicate now…
I appreciate that question and I think people need to understand actually the principal purpose of the stay at home order was to make sure that fewer people got sick and fewer people would die than would otherwise without a stay at home order. And as you’re suggesting in the last part of your comments, the curve gets pushed out when you do that push down, and that’s good because, as you’re trying to build capacity you’re trying to raise the line, you know that you don’t want to go above of how many beds, do you have how many ICU beds, do you have how many ventilators do you have. You want to raise the line so that you can fit all of the patients and the needs underneath that line of capacity, let’s say, and you want to continue to make sure that that wave of patients doesn’t go above the line. You don’t necessarily need to continue to build capacity right. If we can’t build out more McCormick places.
But what you want to do is make sure that the number of people who get sick is kept down. And so that’s really the purpose of a stay at home order, it was the purpose of the original, you know, canceling of, as you may recall canceling of the parades and St Patrick’s Day parade and then closing of restaurants and bars so that’s what I think people need to pay attention to.
Now, obviously, you know, the better we do with this, right, the better we do with this, the more likely it is that we can start to think about what are the safe ways to begin to reopen things, so that people can go back to work people could go back to school. Are there ways to do that that keep people safe.
Some of the things we’ve suggested already like everybody wearing a mask, are some of what’s one idea among a bunch, that will help us get to keeping under the capacity and making sure that few people as few people as possible get sick. I think most people understand the need for avoiding a resurgence of the virus.
* I mean, is there a scenario in which you can open up the economy without there being some increase in cases and fatalities or are you going to have to make a very difficult decision. In terms of balancing increase with in order to avoid creating dire harm…
Well I think I’ve foreshadowed for everybody and I think it’s widely understood that the things that you need in order to open the economy are things that we don’t quite yet have in place, nor does any state. Some states are reopening anyway, that’s their choice I think people might get sick, many people might get sick as a result of it.
But look, what have I said right, testing tracing treating and PPE. And while we’re working very hard on PPE and testing and spinning up a contact tracing effort that will be very large at the end. Those are three things that we have to work on we’re not there yet, you know we’ve talked a lot about testing. We’re just not there yet.
And so, having said that you can make tweaks and moves and you know as you move along here. And as we learn more. Remember the researchers are learning things as we go to. Nobody was saying, everybody has to wear a mask at the beginning, nobody was saying that. Now, that’s pretty common understanding among the epidemiologists and others that it makes sense if you’re going to be outside and, each of you wears them. And you don’t have to wear an N95 mask, you just need some face covering because it’s your droplets that you don’t want to convey to somebody else and you don’t want them conveying it to you.
So once again, all these things are going to be kind of the new normal going forward and allow us to do things to loosen things up and begin to as you’re saying reopen the economy.
* At what point though, does the human cost of keeping the economy closed, the health problems that arise from joblessness etc. outweigh or commensurate to the health costs…
Obviously these are things that I weigh every day and I think about all the time because I understand that it’s challenging for people, there’s a mental health cost in addition to financial costs for everybody, this is going on, it’s having an effect on everybody. And so, I like everybody I wanted to be back to normal as fast as possible. I think we’re all recognizing that normal is going to look a little bit different going forward until there’s a vaccine, until the we can literally rid our state and our country and our planet of this scourge of COVID-19. Things are going to be a little bit different I think, we’re all going to have to be a lot more careful. And while we’re being careful, it allows us to begin to open things up more.
He went on for a while longer, but you get the idea.
* Yesterday during the White House briefing Dr. Birx mentioned New York, New Orleans and specifically Chicago, were doing quote much better. Do you agree with that assessment and how closely is your team consulting with federal government on modeling and determination of the peak?…
We are indeed doing better and I want to make sure everybody understands and look at New York right i mean they’re they’ve, they’ve seemingly flattened their curve, but it’s flattened at a very at a reasonably high level, but flat is way better than you know than the direction that they were going. And the same thing is true in Louisiana and the same thing is true in Chicago. So, I absolutely agree with things are better. And so that that’s a very good sign of, you know how the direction that things are going.
* To the second part of the question…
They don’t have, they are not using seemingly that data from Illinois as far as I know. And they have not offered to help with our data, or with our estimation of our curve. They in fact worked for a long time using that public one that people, others were using the IHME curve, which is inaccurate as regards Illinois, for example. They show a much lower number of hospital beds on their site than we actually have. So it’s very hard to, you know, they don’t have the data that we have, for whatever reason, so, you know, I would say what we have and the experts we have here are what we need I think to get good modeling and there are a number of institutions that have modeled Chicago. county, state and we are looking at those.
* One of our unemployed viewers says that she’s tried getting through to IDES quote hundreds of times without success. She finally reached out to the governor’s office and the matter was in fact quickly resolved. Would you recommend that other frustrated unemployed workers contact your office as a last resort?…
I certainly want to make sure that everybody gets what they need from our IDES and I will say that there’s been a vast improvement, I watched the numbers, I get a report every day. And we are processing gosh, I think 17 times the number. The last report I saw 17 times the number in a single day that we did a single day last year. So just to give you a sense of the magnitude of the problem. […]
Remember, the biggest issue is we can’t look at their private information, the governor’s office, right, we can’t process for them. And so, we have limited ability to really do anything except to hand it off back to IDES. And maybe get some attention to it.
* Summer camp business owners and parents said they say that they are waiting on official word from you to make a decision about whether summer camps will proceed or not, when can they expect that decision?…
Well, I’m not making decisions about summer camps. The summer camps themselves and I know parents will make those decisions and I feel terrible not having a perfect answer for them because as we’ve seen, you have to really watch all these numbers and see which direction we’re going to know to even begin to start to project when could you. And then, of course, is it possible to do social distancing in the context of a summer camp if people are staying overnight, for example, or even in a day camp, aren’t they often gathering in large groups in a summer camp. So I think these are all things that we’ll have to watch the numbers and see how things are going.
* Missouri’s governor has said that he intends to reopen most of the state as soon as next week, Missouri. Actually, May 4, he made a correction. Given that so many people in Metro East live and work in that same region, have you had any luck working with Governor Parson to convince him why that may not be a good idea?…
No, although I think I’ve been very vocal, I think all the governors know where I stand on what kind of a set of principles ought to be operated upon in order to think about reopening. It’s why we created this Midwest pact of states and we reached out to Missouri. They were not interested in joining that pact and similarly with Iowa.
* When will you allow elective surgeries to resume? Governor Cuomo is allowing them starting next week…
Yeah, we’re looking at that as we are in lots of other areas. […]
I’ve gotten suggestions from all across both sides of the aisle of elected officials as well as all across the industry so we’re considering a lot of different things
* Mitch McConnell said today that he’d be open to letting states file for bankruptcy to deal with economic losses from coronavirus, is that something you’ve considered or would consider addressing with state lawmakers?…
No.
* Back on April 5 you said that you had not had a haircut recently and that you were starting to get a little shaggy Have you gotten your haircut since then and if so who cut your hair?…
Does it look any less shaggy now. No… I was joking that I’ll end up wearing a ponytail at some point. We’re all looking forward to that.
* Rockford Mayor McNamara wants small retailers hard hit by big box stores to reopen with social social distancing or for you to ban big box stores from selling non essential goods. During the stay at home order. Are you considering his proposal?…
I haven’t seen that proposal and Mayor McNamara is a very thoughtful mayor. I certainly would like to look at how they are configuring their suggestion. But I spoke with mayors all across the state, about what’s of concern in their communities and I’m trying to take all of that into consideration as we make changes, not just now, but as we move forward, obviously. Even in the President’s plan for reopening there’s this contemplation of phases. And so we’re going to be looking at each of these things with regard to those phases.
* What specific metric has the multi state group come up with to determine when to reopen? Is it a downward trend of the number of positive cases the number of deaths, the hospitalization rates, is that going to be regionalised?…
We certainly talk about that as a group, we have shared our best ideas and that’s really the purpose of this pact. So I will look at the common interests that we have and then look at those common things that are good for Illinois, that come out of that pact. But that’s one of the reasons for that, we have a pact like that as we have a lots of things in common as Midwestern states. So I know that we’ll be able to kind of, let’s say, keep people safe and healthy. While we’re reopening things, in part because we share borders and ideas with one another.
* Responding to another question, Dr. Ezike said 2500 healthcare workers have contracted the virus “and we think that we know of potentially eight deaths.”
* Rep. Batinick said today that he expects restaurants would be among the last businesses to reopen. Is that also your thinking and what would it take to reopen restaurants for dining in safely?
All I can say is that I’ve read a number of the reports people have put together, including one that was done by AEI the American Enterprise Institute and a few others. And the suggestion, kind of the collective suggestion is that industries like restaurants and hospitality are harder to open than some others which are much easier to have social distancing, for example in a large warehouse, than it is in a restaurant where there might be booths and tables next to one another.
* Asked again about Mitch McConnell…
I think that Majority Leader McConnell is certainly important to the process of getting things done in Washington DC, but he’s not the only person involved. And there are an awful lot of Senators on both sides of the aisle that disagree with him. So, I’m hopeful that as a result of work that they’re doing those senators that believe that states and local governments deserve and need additional support…
* Asked about House Republican request that state parks be reopened…
It’s something that we absolutely have considered. I’ve heard a lot about it from people who live in areas where the state parks have been closed.
Remember that one of the biggest reasons that we closed state parks originally was the state workers who work there who have to work in close proximity. Even though you might think of a state park as being quite large. The state workers, how they work right is often in a building together, and in trucks, in which there might be multiple people that are in the truck as they travel around the park. And so that that’s obviously not at the beginning of this, that was not something that was acceptable to close proximity, and even now, and so we’ve talked a lot about you know how we might make changes that would allow people to use state parks.
* In suing your administration today, heads of major business group said that recent COVID related extension for workers comp benefits were pretty much unilaterally imposed on them without consultation or debate. Is that true?…
That is not true. And I don’t really want to comment any further because I know it’s a subject of litigation.
* The Association of Illinois Chiefs of Police is contending that felons convicted of violent crimes are being released due to COVID-19, is that correct?…
As you know I review applications for commutations of sentences as governor. It’s what every governor does, you can look back through, you know, I have the records of each of the governors Republican and Democratic so and and I do commute sentences so the contention that I’m looking at and actually do commute sentences, that’s an accurate depiction. I’m not sure what implication they’re making there.
* As you consider extending the stay at home order, a majority of the cases are in Northern Illinois. What’s your message to residents in downstate and Metro East where there are just a fraction of the cases and deaths?…
Well, you know, he mentioned Metro East. Actually there’s a hotspot in Metro east.
And that should remind you that nowhere in Illinois are people immune from COVID-19.
There are fewer cases it’s true, in some counties, but you heard me say at the beginning when there was only one county that had cases that this was likely to spread. We now have 96 counties with cases. What I would say to people who live in central and southern Illinois is, I’m taking into account the fact that there are fewer cases and fewer deaths in those areas. But we’re also looking at hospital availability and other factors to determine how we might think about changes that will be good for people who live in areas that don’t have as virulent a spread of COVID-19
* Today is the highest number of positive test results reported in one day. How do you explain the surge?…
Well, the most important thing that happened today that led to a lot higher positive test count is we tested more people. I think the testing number for today was 9300, and that’s the largest number yet, so that’s why you see a larger positive testing result.
* Are the early models predicting a peak in mid April wrong, and do you believe the public has a right to see the models you’re using to make these life altering decisions?…
So I think I’ve made clear but I’ll repeat that I’ve relied upon a variety of experts, you can reach them yourselves they’re the experts at Northwestern they’re well known in Northwestern U of C you have UIC. These are, [garbled] you know examples of folks who, some of whom have developed models.
And so, I look at all of the those and listen to those experts because I think one of the things that maybe isn’t widely understood as these models are they change literally every day. And the reason is because you’re projecting on one day, right, but about a bunch of days forward. And then as you move forward, you have actual numbers now to plug into the model. And guess what, that will be different than whatever you projected by its very nature.
So there’s nothing exact about these models and it’s really important for people to understand that, you know, I’m estimating. We all are. Even the modelers are estimating and the purpose for the estimating isn’t so much that we know exactly what date, some data, which you might peak, that’s not the purpose of the models.
The purpose of the models from my perspective is to understand what the capacity needs will be for us in our hospitals among our healthcare workers to treat people who might get COVID-19 on those dates where we might have a very high infection rate and a need for more hospital beds. So that I hope that gives a bigger picture of what we’re looking at.
But I think you should look at all of the online models, they’re worth looking at. We’ll be talking more about modeling tomorrow, to give you a better understanding of how we look at things.
-30-
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2,049 new cases, 98 additional deaths
Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 2,049 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 98 additional deaths.
Cook County: 1 female 30s, 1 male 30s, 3 males 40s, 2 females 50s, 3 males 50s, 5 females 60s, 6 males 60s, 7 females 70s, 8 males 70s, 1 unknown 70s, 5 females 80s, 16 males 80s, 8 females 90s, 3 males 90s
DuPage County: 1 female 70s, 1 female 80s, 2 male 80s, 2 females 90s
Jefferson County: 1 male 60s
Kane County: 2 males 50s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 80s
Kankakee County: 1 female 90s
Kendall County: 1 female 60s
Lake County: 1 male 60s, 1 male 90s
Macon County: 1 female 60s
Madison County: 2 males 70s, 1 male 80s
McHenry County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 80s
Monroe County: 1 male 80s
Rock Island County: 1 male 70s
St. Clair County: 1 male 80s
Will County: 1 male 50s, 1 male 60s, 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 90s
Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 35,108 cases, including 1,565 deaths, in 96 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years.
…Adding… Here’s your graph…
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*** UPDATED x1 - Pritzker responds *** Calm down
Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* You’ve probably seen this headline today…
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday he favors allowing states struggling with high public employee pension costs amid the burdens of the pandemic response to declare bankruptcy rather than giving them a federal bailout.
“I would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route,” he said Wednesday in a response to a question on the syndicated Hugh Hewitt radio show. “It’s saved some cities, and there’s no good reason for it not to be available.”
Getting that through the Senate would be quite difficult, to say the least. Financial institutions which hold untold billions in public debt have a lot of clout in DC, and I can’t see them jumping up and down with glee at the possibility of those portfolios collapsing.
But getting that radical idea through the House would be next to impossible. McConnell is very good at public negotiating ploys. The media eats it up every time. But everyone needs to take a breath, even if President Trump chimes in.
* Again, the media loves to highlight conflict…
His statements set up a conflict with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who said on Bloomberg Television Wednesday a “major package” of aid for state and local government will be in the next stimulus legislation considered by Congress.
McConnell may also find himself in conflict with President Donald Trump. The president said Tuesday after meeting with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo that states will need assistance. “And I think most Republicans agree too, and Democrats,” Trump said. “And that’s part of phase four.”
* But while McConnell did throw a lot of cold water on a state bailout package, saying he wanted to hit the pause button, he didn’t completely rule out all state aid today. Let’s go back to McConnell’s remarks…
“You raised yourself the important issue of what states have done, many of them have done it to themselves with their pension programs. There’s not going to be any desire on the Republican side to bail out state pensions by borrowing money from future generations,” McConnell said, after Hewitt floated Illinois, California and Connecticut as examples of states that have overly generous benefits for public employees.
“We’ll certainly insist that anything we’d borrow to send down to the states is not spent on solving problems that they created for themselves over the years with their pension program,” McConnell added.
To my eyes, that last bit looks like the real McConnell demand: No federal money for state pension funds. The Harmon letter did not help.
*** UPDATE *** From the governor’s office…
The Governor is working with our delegation and partners in Washington D.C. to ensure the state has the resources it needs to continue this fight against COVID-19. As the nation grapples with the impacts of this virus, every state is facing budget shortfalls and we need partners in Congress who will work with us on real solutions, instead of using this crisis to propose an ideological hail mary. The State of Illinois prioritizes its debt payments and is working to ensure we remain on firm fiscal footing through this crisis and we are working with partners who believe a federal response is needed to address unique challenges of this time.
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Everyone has their own priorities
Wednesday, Apr 22, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Even if the governor had the power to do this (and I don’t think he does and neither does his legal counsel), a governor should not use this emergency to fulfill a policy goal that has been rejected for decades by the Illinois General Assembly just because elements of his base want him to do it. Here’s Ariel Cheung at the Tribune…
The state’s eviction moratorium has not been enough to protect Illinois renters, housing advocates say. Chicago’s 2,000 one-time housing grants — which 83,000 people have applied for — did not quiet the calls for relief.
Lawmakers are rushing to pass legislation that would suspend rent and mortgage payments during the coronavirus pandemic, while also keeping landlords and lenders afloat. But next month’s rent is due in just over a week, leaving little time to help those who need it. […]
Advocates and a growing number of politicians have urged Gov. J.B. Pritzker to use his emergency powers through his ongoing disaster proclamation to repeal the state’s preemptive ban on rent regulation — action Pritzker has repeatedly said he cannot legally take. They are also pushing for the governor to put a moratorium on rent and mortgage payments for the duration of his stay-at-home order and three months after it is lifted.
They come armed with a legal opinion arguing that such action is within the governor’s powers during a declared disaster, either by issuing a statewide order or leaving it up to municipalities to decide.
…Adding… Set aside for a moment the highly questionable legality of the governor issuing an executive order to nullify a state law that prohibits rent control, and consider their other demand that he place a “moratorium on rent and mortgage payments” for the duration.
Leases and mortgages are legally binding contracts. So, the progressives pushing this idea need to stop and think what they’re doing. If they say he has the ability to nullify contracts, then what’s to stop him from temporarily nullifying or altering public and private employee union contracts? The CTU has been backing this ill-advised campaign. Careful what you wish for. Also, y’all might want to check the US Constitution’s contract clause.
Heck, taking it to an extreme, if the governor supposedly has this much power during an emergency, what’s to stop him from nullifying the legally binding contract portion of the state Constitution’s pension clause?
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* Press release…
– A coalition of business groups today filed a lawsuit challenging changes recently adopted by the Illinois Workers’ Compensation Commission that will require employers to pay workers’ compensation benefits if an employee is diagnosed with COVID-19 without proof the illness was contracted at the workplace.
The plaintiffs in the case are the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association and the Illinois Retail Merchants Association, which filed the suit on behalf of the state’s diverse employer community. Together, IMA and IRMA’s membership employ the largest number of workers in Illinois and contribute the highest share of the state’s Gross Domestic Product. The legal challenge was filed in Sangamon County Circuit Court by attorneys Scott Cruz, Thad Felton and Kevin Hormuth with the law firm Greensfelder, Hemker & Gale, P.C.
“To be clear, this case is not about the wisdom of the substantive new law expressed by the Commission. This case is about the Commission far exceeding its rulemaking authority. The substantive law of Illinois, and the wisdom of implementing it, is for the legislature, after proper discourse, and not the whim of the Commission,” said attorney Scott Cruz. “Essential businesses across Illinois are doing all they can to protect workers while also meeting unprecedented demand for food, medical supplies, protective equipment and other important services needed during this pandemic. At a time when many are waiting for relief from the federal and state government in an effort to make payroll and retain workers, they will now be forced to pay for additional medical and salary costs regardless of whether an employees’ illness was contracted outside of the workplace.”
For clarity’s sake, the new rules shift the onus of proof onto businesses. They can still rebut the claims.
Working on getting a copy of the lawsuit, but the biz groups say they believe they’ll get a hearing this week.
…Adding… The complaint is here.
*** UPDATE *** Illinois AFL-CIO…
It shouldn’t shock anyone that the corporate community opposes a policy decision that helps workers. It’s what happens in Springfield and Washington D.C.
Only thing is, for the last several weeks, we as a community, state, nation and world have been fighting a scourge that has ground the economy nearly to a halt and likely forever changed our society and its people.
From the beginnings of the pandemic, our institutions have had one common thread holding communities together – our front line workers. Whether it is the health care workers and first responders trying to stay even or one step ahead of a lightning-fast disease, or the grocery store clerks, public employees and other essential support people, they have not blinked in trying to keep us safe and ready to begin a recovery.
We commend Gov. JB Pritzker and the Illinois Workers’ Compensation Commission for their foresight, compassion and good judgement in making sure those essential workers who contract COVID-19 are covered under Workers’ Compensation protections.
This is why we have Workers’ Compensation. Let’s defend the workers standing between us and chaos. We hope the business community interests that filed a lawsuit challenging the ability of sick workers to have speedy access to Workers’ Compensation rethink their position.
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