Good morning – I’m reaching out to connect you with a source who can talk about why sportsbooks are creating more-accurate political predictions than some of the country’s leading polls.
David Strauss, lead oddsmaker at sportsbook MyBookie, can discuss why political polls are oftentimes wrong, and why sportsbooks have done a better job at getting it right. For example, 2016 polls suggested Clinton would win, while gambling lines were more indicative of the actual outcome.
* Politicians and pundits always reference polls when the results are in their favor but are quick to point out their inaccuracies when they are not. Strauss can discuss why sportsbooks are different, including:
* People are willing to lie on a poll but are unlikely to gamble their hard-earned money on something they don’t believe in
* Sportsbooks/oddsmakers also have money to lose if the political odds are set inaccurately
* Why sportsbooks are seeing a Trump win in the 2020 election, and how that differs from current polls
For more of an in-depth chat on this topic, let me know what time you’re able to connect with David Strauss this week for a phone interview.
Thanks,
Natasha
Um, there’s a reason casinos are so opulent: Gamblers do not generally make rational decisions, even when they’re only betting a few bucks. Add our insane national politics into the equation and you’ve got a real problem on your hands.
…Adding… From a good buddy…
(A)s someone who’s made decent money wagering on elections I’ve always found the prediction markets to be trailing indicators. Also, it’s much easier to make money on the political markets by monetizing the yo-yo than betting on the outcome, I’ve been frustrated by how stable this race has become, it’s interfering with my monetization.
The general idea is to take advantage of the mopes.
* So, in an unfortunate moment of uncoolness which I now regret, I sent this reply…
Seriously, y’all need to watch this video and take me off your list
House Democrats started off the 2020 cycle looking to protect roughly four dozen vulnerable members, including 30 whose districts voted for President Donald Trump four years ago.
Now as they enter the final month, Democrats are scaling back defensive spending and funneling their remaining millions to knock out vulnerable Republicans and expand their 34-seat majority, according to a POLITICO review of recent advertising data. […]
In a sign of their growing optimism, Democrats canceled millions of October TV reservations for lawmakers like Reps. Jared Golden in Maine or Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania — in two districts that Trump had won by about 10 points in 2016. And party officials also nixed ad time in a pair of purple Michigan districts belonging to freshman Reps. Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin, which Trump also won in the last presidential election.
Now Democrats are pouring that cash into capturing red seats — in Michigan, Colorado, Montana and Alaska — that the party hadn’t been eyeing until late in the election cycle as Trump sagged in the polls and GOP campaigns entered crisis mode. […]
“It’s a combination of a lot of things,” DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) said in a brief interview, stressing that party officials began early with recruitment and on-the-ground staff in battleground districts. “We’re raising money like it’s falling from the sky.”
Here’s to the doers, the ones who feed the world and make America work, even in tough times.
I’m Cheri Bustos and I’m doing everything I can to get us moving again. Better trade deals, so our farmers sell American products. New infrastructure projects. and demanding they use products made in America, not China.
I’m Cheri Bustos,and I approve this message because we’re doers here and it’s time to get to work.
