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IPI commisioned poll has more bad news for Mayor Johnson

Tuesday, Aug 20, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller

* M3 Strategies is a Republican pollster which did work for Paul Vallas last year, and this particular poll was conducted for the Illinois Policy Institute. However, their polling in the first round of the mayor’s race was dead-on. The results are also about three weeks old. I could go on, but take it for what it’s worth…

POLLING MEMORANDUM
To: Illinois Policy
From: M3 Strategies
Re: Chicago Poll – August 2024
Date: August 16, 2024

BACKGROUND

M3 Strategies surveyed 454 likely voters in Chicago from July 29 – August 2. The survey has a margin of error of 4.6% at 95% confidence. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of individuals who are likely to vote. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.

KEY FINDINGS

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson Favorability

• Overall Opinion: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is unpopular, with only 27% viewing him favorably (9% strongly favorable, 18% somewhat favorable) and a significant 63% holding an unfavorable view (44% strongly unfavorable, 19% somewhat unfavorable).
• Demographic Breakdown: Johnson’s support is highest among younger voters and the most liberal respondents, while conservatives, older voters, and white respondents hold the most unfavorable views.

o Even among self-described very liberal voters, only 51% approve of him.

Impact of CTU Financial Support on Voter Behavior

• Electoral Impact: Voters express significant opposition to candidates who take money from the CTU, with 55% indicating they would be less likely to vote for such candidates (39% much less likely, 15% somewhat less likely). Only 14% would be more likely to support a candidate receiving CTU funds, and for 31%, it would not make a difference.
• Demographic Breakdown: Opposition to CTU financial support is strongest among older voters, conservatives, and men. In contrast, younger voters and liberals are somewhat more open to candidates backed by the CTU, though even among these groups, opposition is substantial.

Which one or two of the following would you say is the biggest issue facing Chicago rightnow? (Select up to two)

Crime 26%
Recent Migrants from Central and South America 14%
High Taxes 13%
Housing 10%
City Governance 10%
Homelessness 9%
The Economy 7%
Education 7%
Other (please specify) 3%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate for public office if they took money from CTU?

Much more likely 6%
Somewhat more likely 8%
No difference 31%
Somewhat less likely 15%
Much less likely 39%

Crosstabs are here.

19 Comments

Saying the quiet part out loud (Updated)

Friday, Jul 12, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Andy Shaw…

Covering politics for three decades left me with a lifetime of takeaways, but a compelling one that resurfaces more often than most, as we try to explain widespread public perceptions of politicians, is the importance of narrative.

It’s an overarching media-and-consultant-driven storyline that, for better or worse, defines, describes and tends to stick to candidates and elected officials like glue until the passage of time or a figurative solvent — an unanticipated major event — pries it loose.

Emphasis added.

* Meanwhile, I’m not at all saying that President Biden is not in political trouble and that he’s not weighing down his fellow Democrats. He’s obviously in trouble and people are most definitely freaking the heck out. All I’m saying is hyping a partisan congressional district poll of just 309 likely voters taken 9-10 days ago and calling it “new” doesn’t really add much to the debate, but does feed into the national news media/consultant narrative…

A NEW POLL in the IL-11 District suggests the Biden crisis is having an impact. The survey conducted by Republican challenger Jerry Evans’ campaign against incumbent Congressman Bill Foster shows Biden at 38 percent to Trump’s 37 percent. In 2020, Biden won the district 62 percent to 36 percent. The poll also shows a close race for Congress, with a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican by 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent with 13 percent undecided.

In a head-to-head, Foster beats Evans 41 percent to 34 percent but with 35 percent undecided. The Cygnal survey was conducted July 2 and 3, five days after the Biden-Trump debate. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.55 percentage points.

…Adding… The 11th is no longer the overwhelmingly Democratic district it was in 2020. When you look at the district’s current precincts, Biden won in 2020 by 15 points - which is 11 points less than he won the old district. Also, while JB Pritzker won the district in 2022 by about 13 points, he only won it by 2.5 points in 2018. Foster won the new district in 2022 by 13 points. I should’ve checked those numbers in the quoted story above, but made the mistake of relying on what was written.

Methodology…

This probabilistic survey was conducted July 2 – 3, 2024, with 309 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±5.55%. Known registered voters were interviewed via online panel and SMS. This survey was weighted to a likely general election voter universe.

* Also, reputable polls in battleground states haven’t yet shown a dramatic impact on down-ballot races. And then there’s this from yesterday…

(A)ny post-debate analysis using polling to justify sweeping conclusions about the state of the race is way out ahead of the data. This soon after the debate, with relatively few polls having come home to roost, there are early indications that Biden has lost at least a point or two in the polls, but the early indications are just that — early indications. (This is why, as G. Elliott Morris explains here, 538’s forecast hasn’t changed much post-debate.)

Deep breaths, please.

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