* Pollsters John Anzalone and Matt Hogan…

By all major political indicators, 2022 should have delivered the type of shellacking that the president’s party typically endures in midterm elections: Over 70% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track, 76% rated the economy negatively, and President Biden’s approval rating of 43% has historically resulted in a loss of about 40 House seats. Yet, despite these strong headwinds, Democrats and President Biden bucked history by holding the Senate and only narrowly losing the House of Representatives. So how did they do it?

* The topline answer…

Democrats made this election a choice rather than a referendum on President Biden. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the president, but Democrats outperformed the negative political environment by managing to make this one a choice instead. A choice not only on the economy and inflation, but also on issues like abortion and the state of our democracy, and on the quality of Republican candidates, many of whom expressed extreme views that alienated voters. Instead of a referendum on President Biden, Democrats managed to make the midterms a referendum on extreme GOP candidates like Oz, Masters, Walker, and others across the country.

In past midterm elections, even those voters who only somewhat disapproved of the president have heavily favored the opposition party in their vote for Congress. This was the case in both 2018 and 2014, when those who somewhat disapproved of Trump and Obama voted against each president’s party by more than 20 points. However, 2022 represented a dramatic reversal of this trend, with those who somewhat disapproved of President Biden favoring Democratic congressional candidates by a 25-point margin. Despite these voters’ dissatisfaction with Biden, they still strongly preferred his party in their vote for Congress.

* I excerpted some analysis highlights, which is supported by their polling data…

Democrats won by winning over Independents, not by turning out their base.

Democrats were able to make this election a choice due to abortion and threats to democracy being as important to voters as inflation and the economy.

Abortion and threats to democracy resonated most strongly with different age groups, making them a potent combo for Democrats.

Democrats performed well among seniors thanks to these voters focus on threats to democracy and Social Security.

Late deciders did not heavily break towards Republicans. In midterms, those who don’t decide whom to vote for until late in the campaign typically break heavily against the president’s party. But this year, Republicans won those who decided whom to vote for in the last week by only 3 points, which was not nearly a big enough margin to create a red wave.

Voters, and especially Independents, expressed a clear desire for more bipartisanship. A key factor in Democrats’ ability to win over Independents was that these voters wanted more bipartisanship and felt Democratic candidates were more likely to deliver it.

The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act allowed Democrats to cut into the GOP advantage on the economy and reduce frustration over a lack of legislative accomplishments.

Democrats overperformed because voters disliked Republican candidates more, not because voters liked Democrats more than we thought.

Click here to read the full analysis.