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Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** This story was originally about the bland sameness of the three major US Senate candidates in Illinois. But Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s US Senate campaign sent me the full statement they gave to Politico. She has most definitely shifted…

While I respect and applaud the work that Senator Schumer has done, I also believe it is time for new leadership and new ideas – that’s why I’m running for Senate. Voters have made it clear that they are looking for something different from Democrats, and I think they are right.

Emphasis added.

And Stratton said this to the Washington Post…

“While I respect and applaud the work that Sen. Schumer has done, I also believe it is time for new leadership and new ideas,” Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, a Democratic Senate candidate in Illinois, said in a statement. “I do not agree with every decision Sen. Schumer has made — particularly his approach to the budget vote in the spring.”

So, I changed the headline.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Late last month, I asked the three major Democratic US candidates if they would vote for Chuck Schumer as the Senate’s Democratic/chamber leader (depending on the outcome of national races). As I told you at the time, I figured there wouldn’t be a whole lot of space between them, but thought there could be a chance that somebody might stand out.

They all blandly dodged the question, as I mostly expected.

* Politico (national, not state) took that an entirely different way…

Chuck Schumer is losing support among a key constituency: The Democrats who want to join his caucus.

In Maine, four of the Democrats running to unseat the GOP’s most vulnerable senator have already pledged not to support Schumer as leader. Three other candidates refused to commit.

In Illinois, the three leading Democrats vying to succeed Schumer’s retiring No. 2 say they’re keeping their options open.

~~Their answers were similar to what they gave me.~~

Non-committal may be a news story in DC, but here it’s just a sign that the three major candidates won’t stick their necks out on almost anything. And as long as that continues, the person spending the most money (Raja) has the best shot at winning.

Also, some of the folks Politico talked to were downright hostile to Schumer. ~~Not so here.~~

This reminds me of the 2020 Illinois House races, when most Democratic candidates just issued bland, non-committal statements about Speaker Madigan. Most every one of them voted for Madigan in the first round, but he came up short because 19 Democrats stood firm and the House wound up with a different Speaker.

* I’ve been spending quite a bit of time in the Quad Cities area the past couple of months because I need to be with my parents (for the first time, I’m missing the annual Illinois vs. Missouri legislative softball game at Busch Stadium tonight for that very reason).

Anyway, Raja is all over the TV airwaves here. It’s quite something.

Speaking of which, here’s a Raja Poll…

In a recent survey of 1,143 likely voters in next year’s Democratic primary in Illinois, Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi continues to expand his large lead over his closest opponent. Raja heads into October leading the field by 24 points.

All publicly-released polling shows the same trend: Raja is continuing to grow his lead, increasing his margin from 13 points in early June, to 20 points in mid-August, to now 24 points in mid-September.

Raja’s advantage in this race is broad. He leads among men and women, across the ideological spectrum, and both inside and outside of the Chicago media market.

I’ve had this poll for a few days, but forgot to post it. Methodology…

Polling was conducted online from September 17-19, 2025. Drawn from a list of past Democratic primary voters and using Dynamic Online Sampling and SMS text messaging to attain a representative sample, Change Research polled 1,143 potential Democratic primary voters in Illinois. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and region. The survey has a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.

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Poll shows broad Chicago opposition to ICE, National Guard

Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Today, the Hands Off Chicago coalition released a new poll showing large majorities of Chicagoans oppose President Trump’s plans to send ICE into Chicago neighborhoods as well as his proposal to send the National Guard into the city. These results hold true across age, ethnicity, and gender. Click here to see the poll results and cross tabs.

The poll, which surveyed 582 registered Chicago voters on September 11-12, found:

• 63% of Chicagoans oppose sending the National Guard into Chicago, including 56% who strongly oppose, while only 31% support the idea. That number grows to 65% who oppose the idea after respondents were given additional information.

• 66% of Chicagoans oppose increasing federal immigration enforcement, including 56% who strongly oppose, while only 29% support the idea. That number increased to 68% opposed after respondents were given additional context about the proposal.

• A whopping 73% of Chicagoans think Trump is threatening to deploy the National Guard mainly for political reasons as opposed to a goal of reducing crime.

• 76% of respondents – including 92% of African-American respondents – agree more with the statement that while Chicago has problems with crime, the federal government should partner with the city on proven crime reduction solutions, not bring in the military or National Guard. Only 22% agreed more with the statement that Chicago is a crime-ridden “hellhole” and deploying the National Guard would make us safer.

• 69% of respondents said they are somewhat or very worried that deploying the National Guard or aggressive immigration enforcement in Chicago could violate residents’ rights or freedoms.

Hands Off Chicago, a coalition of Chicago and Illinois advocacy organizations, released the following statement in response to the poll:

“The data confirms what we are hearing repeatedly in our communities: Chicagoans do not want and do not need ICE, the border patrol, the National Guard, or the military in our region. Chicagoans overwhelmingly believe Trump is doing this for political reasons, and strongly prefer a partnership with the federal government to address our problems, not a unilateral occupation. While a tiny minority tries to overinflate their presence, the reality is that Chicagoans fiercely oppose Trump’s moves.”

Public Policy Polling conducted the survey.

* Let’s focus on the racial/ethnic crosstabs. This is a poll of 582 Chicago voters with a Margin of Error of +/- 4.1 percent. But the MoE for the subsets we’re looking at are much, much higher…

* With that in mind, we’ll start with Trump’s Chicago approval…

* Trump sending the National Guard into Chicago…

* President Trump has called Chicago a ‘hellhole and ‘most dangerous city in the world.’ He says deploying the National Guard would ‘clean up’ the city, though the National Guard would not have police powers. Local officials say they welcome federal anti-violence resources and law enforcement cooperation, but declining crime rates show there is no emergency that merits a military response and deployment of the National Guard in Chicago. Having heard some more information, let me ask you again: do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose President Trump’s proposal to send the National Guard into Chicago?…

Notice how support rises among Latinos with the “informed” question, but opposition remains the same. That indicates some persuadability. This poll was taken before everything really ramped up, so we’ll see what happens when reality has kicked in.

* Chicago crime…

* Trump increasing federal immigration enforcement in Chicago…

* President Trump has directed Immigration and Customs Enforcement or ICE to aggressively enforce immigration laws nationwide. These enforcement actions have increased deportations of undocumented residents, but have also resulted in cases of unidentified agents detaining and deporting American citizens and valid visa holders, while separating some families. Supporters say that strict enforcement of immigration laws upholds the rule of law, while critics say that recent enforcement action undermines the rule of law, because it lacks due process and transparency. Having heard some more information, let me ask you again: do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the Trump Administration increasing federal immigration enforcement in Chicago through aggressive ICE detainments, expedited deportation removals, and workplace raids?…

No real change in the Latino response with the “informed” question.

* How worried are you that deploying the National Guard or aggressive immigration enforcement in Chicago could violate residents’ rights or freedoms: very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?…

Again, this was taken before the big ramp-up.

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