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IEA’s annual State of Education poll released

Tuesday, Mar 12, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Click here for the full poll. From the IEA…

The Illinois Education Association (IEA) will release its sixth annual IEA State of Education report on Tues., March 12, the only bipartisan poll monitoring Illinoisans’ views on all aspects of public schools. The findings will be shared during a news conference today on Zoom at 10 a.m.

The poll results show Illinoisans believe all students have a right to a public education and support public schools, but they also acknowledge teaching has grown increasingly difficult and support solutions to address the problems. […]

Other key findings from the State of Education report include:

    • 76% of people think teaching has become harder over the last few years;
    • 79% of the public say they are very worried about the teacher shortage;
    • 74% believe funding for public schools should increase;
    • 58% believe teachers are underpaid;
    • 71% of people say education support staff are underpaid;
    • 87% of the public would support changes to make schools safer;
    • 91% of Illinoisans believe that students have a right to a public education;
    • 80% of residents believe more money should be spent combatting mental health issues among college students.

[…] The poll, conducted by both a democrat polling firm, Normington Petts, and a republican pollster, Next Generation Strategies, surveyed 1,000 Illinoisans Jan. 22-25. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent with 95 percent confidence.

* One of the first questions asked by the pollster was: “Now, I am going to read you a list of priorities for Illinois. Please tell me how important each one is to you, personally, on a scale of zero to ten where a zero means not a priority at all and ten means it is your top priority. You can choose any number from zero to ten. The first one is:”

Note that pension reform is far down the list, and has fallen 12 points since 2019.

* And despite the fact that lowering taxes is a high priority, respondents also said they want more spending

Do you think funding for public schools in Illinois should increase, decrease, or stay about the same?

    Increase ….. 65%
    Decrease ….. 9
    Stay the same ….. 20
    (Don’t know) ….. 6

As you may know, 80% of Illinois public schools are not funded at the level required by the evidence-based model. This funding model was designed to prioritize state funding for students with the most need and school districts with the lowest local funding, allocating resources based on research-based best practices in education. Right now, just 20% of schools are fully funded. Having heard that, do you think funding for public schools in Illinois should increase, decrease, or stay about the same?

    Increase ….. 74%
    Decrease ….. 8
    Stay the same ….. 14
    (Don’t know) ….. 5

Do you think that public school teachers in your community are paid too little, too much, or about right?

    Too little ….. 58%
    Too much ….. 10
    About right ….. 24
    (Don’t know) ….. 8

As you may know, public schools in Illinois have support staff in classrooms called paraprofessionals. These paraprofessionals work with students with disabilities and behavior challenges. They get paid an average of $15 an hour. Do you think that paraprofessionals in your community are paid too little, too much or about right?

    Too little ….. 71%
    Too much ….. 3
    About right ….. 20
    (Don’t know) ….. 6

As you may know, teachers in Illinois do not pay into Social Security and therefore do not collect when they retire. Do you think that Illinois teachers should receive their full pension, see their pensions cut some, or see their pensions eliminated?

    Full pension ….. 72%
    Cut some ….. 12
    Eliminated ….. 6
    (Don’t know) ….. 10

Right now, the teacher pension system in Illinois in divided into two tiers. Tier One is for teachers hired before 2011 and Tier Two is for those who began working as teachers in 2011 or more recently. Tier One teachers are eligible for their full pension at age 60 or at age 55 if they have been teachers for 35 years. Tier Two teachers are required to work until the age of 67 to get their full pension benefits. All teachers pay 9% of their salary into the pension system. Would you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose changes to the teacher pension system that would allow Tier Two teachers to retire before age 67 and still receive their full benefits?

    Strongly favor ….. 36%
    Somewhat favor ….. 26
    Somewhat oppose ….. 14
    Strongly oppose ….. 11
    (Don’t know) ….. 13

    Total Favor ….. 63%
    Total Oppose ….. 25%

* And this is probably a big reason why they believe more spending is needed

Thinking about public school teachers in Illinois over the last few years or so, do you think that teaching has been much easier, somewhat easier, somewhat harder, or much harder for teachers compared to before that?

    Much easier ….. 7%
    Somewhat easier ….. 10
    Somewhat harder ….. 30
    Much harder ….. 46
    (Don’t know) ….. 7

    Total Easier ….. 17%
    Total Harder….. 76%

* One more

Six percent of Democrats, 21 percent of independents and 38 percent of Republicans oppose “Teaching Illinois high school students about racism and its impact in the United States.”

Five percent of Democrats, 15 percent of independents and 20 percent of Republicans oppose “Teaching Illinois high school students about slavery in the United States and its impacts.”

Keep in mind that subgroups will have higher margins of error.

* Methodology

The following is a tabular report of a live interviewer on both mobiles and landlines (28%), text to web (15%), and online panel (57%) survey among 1,000 adults in Illinois. The survey was conducted from January 22-25, 2024, by trained, professional interviewers following procedures established by Normington, Petts & Associates. All polls are subject to errors caused by interviewing a sample of persons, rather than the entire population. In 95 cases out of 100, the responses to this survey should fall within ±3.1 percentage points of those that would have been obtained from interviewing the entire population of adults in Illinois. The sampling error for subgroups of the survey will be greater.

  9 Comments      


Poll has Bost up, but with caveats

Wednesday, Mar 6, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hmm…


Haley is now out.

* M3 Strategies polling memo

BACKGROUND

M3 Strategies surveyed 473 likely voters in Illinois’ 12th Congressional District from March 2nd to March 4th. It has a margin of error of 4.48% at 95% confidence. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of individuals who are likely to vote. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.

KEY FINDINGS

• Congressman Mike Bost leads Darren Bailey on the initial ballot by 6%. Bost leads 45% to 39%, with 16% of voters still undecided.
• Congressman Bost wins older voters, taking those over the age of 65 by over 30%, while Bailey wins among all younger age groups.
• Bost and Bailey split Trump voters, each taking 43%. Bost wins voters who say they are undecided or will vote for Nikki Haley.
• When undecided voters are forced to choose, Congressman Bost’s lead grows to 8%, winning 54% of the vote to Bailey’s 46%.
• Both candidates are well-known and well-liked, pointing to limited room for growth from positive messaging.

    o Nearly 77% of those over 65 view Congressman Bost Favorably, including 60% Very Favorably.
    o Bailey’s highest favorable rating comes from those aged 31-45, with 71% viewing him Favorably.

• President Trump’s endorsement does not appear to be decisive in this race, with 64% of voters saying that it had no impact or they were not aware of it. 20% of voters said Trump’s endorsement made them more likely to vote for Bost, and 17% said it was more likely to make them vote for Bailey.

    o Still, 29% of undecided voters and 18% of Trump supporters said they were unaware Trump had endorsed in the race.

• Asked about the frozen embryos created through “in vitro fertilization” (IVF), only 40% of likely Republican Primary voters in IL-12 believe that “Frozen embryos outside the Mother’s womb should be considered a child,” pointing to broad, bipartisan support for IVF.

And now you see why neither Bost nor Bailey want to comment on IVF.

Read the toplines and some crosstabs by clicking here.

  21 Comments      


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